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What the expected goal data tells us about Fantasy assets

Fantasy managers who sign up as a Member to our website get access to a huge array of player and team statistics.

Among the underlying stats on offer is expected goal (xG) data, which many will be familiar with already.

For the uninitiated, xG is the measure of a quality of a chance based on criteria such as proximity of goal and angle of attempt.

For example, a shot from inside the six-yard box will carry a higher xG than a speculative effort from 35 yards.

Along the same lines, expected assist (xA) data calculates the quality of chance being created.

Expected goal data doesn’t predict when goals will be scored and isn’t a crystal ball for the future – rather, it is a measure of chances created in the past.

Nevertheless, many find xG data useful.

Fantasy managers can use the information to see which players are consistently being presented with – or providing – high-quality opportunities, which in turn can be helpful when making future team selections.

The rest of this article will be dedicated to looking at the xG data available in our Members’ Area, drawing attention to the players who have had significant expected goal involvement in 2019/20 so far and those who are under/overachieving based on their actual output.

Below are some of the most commonly used expected goal categories in our Members’ Area and the players featuring prominently in the respective tables.

While four matches is a small sample size, some familiar names are already leading the way.

All prices given in the tables and in the copy were correct at the time of writing (Friday).

Become a Member and access our data

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Lessons learned from Gameweek 4

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689 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Teomi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    15 days, 8 hours ago

    Exact cash to do:

    Kane and Hayden out to barnes kdb in for -4

    Y or N?

    1. liverpool01
      • 1 Year
      15 days, 8 hours ago

      Yes

    2. Davros
      • 10 Years
      15 days, 8 hours ago

      I like that

      1. Davros
        • 10 Years
        15 days, 8 hours ago

        Assuming all come thru IB intact

    3. Freddiebell
      • 3 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      Yes good move's

  2. FDMS All Starz
    • 3 Years
    15 days, 8 hours ago

    Which transfer is better? If i do one cant do the other

    A) King---> Barnes

    or

    B) Robbo---> TAA

    1. Teomi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      15 days, 8 hours ago

      A imo

    2. ryacoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      15 days, 8 hours ago

      A

    3. liverpool01
      • 1 Year
      15 days, 8 hours ago

      A

    4. Davros
      • 10 Years
      15 days, 8 hours ago

      A.
      I’ve changed to TAA from Robbo as on a WC but Robbo could easily outscore next time

    5. Rasping Drive
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      15 days, 8 hours ago

      B

  3. liverpool01
    • 1 Year
    15 days, 8 hours ago

    A)Pope, Salah, Son,
    B)Mane, James, Haller

    A or B guys?

    1. Jacky boy
      • 3 Years
      15 days, 8 hours ago

      A

    2. Jacky boy
      • 3 Years
      15 days, 8 hours ago

      How pope is in there?!?!?!?!?
      Bad question

      1. liverpool01
        • 1 Year
        15 days, 8 hours ago

        Will make 3 transfers

      2. Wild Rover
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        15 days, 8 hours ago

        I think he means Pepe

        1. liverpool01
          • 1 Year
          15 days, 8 hours ago

          yeh Pepe lol my bad

          1. Wild Rover
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            15 days, 7 hours ago

            A

            1. liverpool01
              • 1 Year
              15 days, 7 hours ago

              thanks

          2. MTPockets
            • 10 Years
            15 days, 7 hours ago

            But that means option A costs about 6m more

    3. MTPockets
      • 10 Years
      15 days, 8 hours ago

      doesn't make sense

    4. Davros
      • 10 Years
      15 days, 8 hours ago

      That is a bizarre A/B

    5. Freddiebell
      • 3 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      B for me

      1. AndyCook
        • 2 Years
        14 days, 15 hours ago

        Saves a fortune too..

  4. Pi
    • 9 Years
    15 days, 8 hours ago

    Score Predictions for tonight please
    England- Bulgaria
    Lithuania- Ukraine
    Iceland-Moldova

    1. Here Comes The Son ★
      • 2 Years
      15 days, 8 hours ago

      England 3-0 Bulgaria
      Lithuania 1-2 Ukraine
      Iceland 2-1 Moldova

    2. Davros
      • 10 Years
      15 days, 8 hours ago

      2-0
      1-1
      2-1

    3. Hy liverpool
      • 5 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      4-0
      1-1
      2-0

    4. Freddiebell
      • 3 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      2-0
      1-2
      2-0

  5. Ask Yourself
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    15 days, 8 hours ago

    England line up is clinically depressing. Trippier, Barkley, Keane, Henderson. How are these players England internationals ffs given the alternatives

    1. Ask Yourself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      15 days, 8 hours ago

      Also I hope sterling isn’t on the right wing Jesus we aren’t as good as Man City creatively ffs

      1. diesel001
        • 2 Years
        15 days, 7 hours ago

        Most international teams aren't as good as Man City creatively.

    2. Giggs Boson.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      Trippier, Rice, Barkley is disappointing over TAA, Winks, Maddison 🙁

      Should be enough to win, but I guess he's rotating over the two games rather than developing a strong XI like Spain did during their spell of dominance.

      1. Giggs Boson.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        15 days, 7 hours ago

        No Sancho too... jesus.

    3. diesel001
      • 2 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      Keane is ok IMO.

      Barkley needs a run of games (like 10-15 in a row) and Chelsea might not be the club for him now with Mount and RLC taking his place.

      Henderson is a good midfielder. There is a reason he is in Liverpool's first XI. Not the most creative, but if you want to press high you need mobile midfielders and he is one.

      Trippier - agree - should be behind TAA, AWB and Walker.

      1. Giggs Boson.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        15 days, 7 hours ago

        I would say Henderson is our best central midfielder, and I'm a United fan...

      2. diesel001
        • 2 Years
        15 days, 7 hours ago

        England's best CBs are: Maguire, Stones, Keane and Gomez.

        One of the issues with CBs like Dunk, Mings, Tarkowski etc. is they come from clubs where they usually get a lot of midfield protection because they are often playing 'park the bus'. They then come into the England setup where that defensive protection is not there and get exposed.

        I prefer a worse CB who plays for a Top 6 team (or overseas equivalent) than a CB who plays for a very defensive team.

        Be interesting to see how Smalling does at Roma. If he gets his form back then he could be an option.

        1. Ask Yourself
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          15 days, 7 hours ago

          I want him to play the back 5 again man that was the best

          1. diesel001
            • 2 Years
            15 days, 7 hours ago

            Pickford
            Gomez Stones Maguire
            TAA Henderson Maddison Rice Chilwell
            Kane Sterling

    4. Freddiebell
      • 3 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      You couldn't make it up. Selection is crap

  6. Hy liverpool
    • 5 Years
    15 days, 8 hours ago

    England line up vs Bulgaria
    Players shirt numbers

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

    1. HakimZyech
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      it means england are due a heavy spanking

    2. bitm2007
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      Old school 1 to 11 the way every should be.

  7. Giggs Boson.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    15 days, 7 hours ago

    England
    Pickford, Trippier, Keane, Maguire, Rose, Henderson, Rice, Barkley, Sterling, Kane, Rashford

    Subs: Alexander-Arnold???, Heaton, Chilwell, Gomez, Mings, Winks, Mount, Oxlade-Chamberlain 🙂 , Maddison, Sancho???err40????, Pope, Wilson

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 5 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      Maddison is better than 10*Barkley

      1. Giggs Boson.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        15 days, 7 hours ago

        Yeah, the stats certainly support that.

        But I'm sure Gareth has plan. He's had access to fitness data, and training performance, so I'm sure he knows what he's doing.

        There's a great video on the England youtube channel of them going through various tests in the gym to monitor their condition. Interesting video.

          1. Hy liverpool
            • 5 Years
            15 days, 5 hours ago

            Hahaha sterling is making fun of TAA boots and saying is that the key for your assists.

    2. Ask Yourself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      Hopefully next game:
      Trippier > TAA
      Keane > Mings
      Henderson > Ox
      Barkley > Maddison
      Kane > Sancho

  8. AnzhiBabakin (AKA: FC Akhma…
    • 3 Years
    15 days, 7 hours ago

    With suspension next game might Boly drop?
    Need a defender below 5m. At the moment Soyuncu looks the best bet, but Boly would be a good option.

    1. Ask Yourself
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      KWP back in training next week, hopefully fit for GW5

      1. AnzhiBabakin (AKA: FC Akhma…
        • 3 Years
        15 days, 6 hours ago

        Would he be your pick?

        1. Ask Yourself
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          15 days, 6 hours ago

          If I had to pick someone in that price point for now yes

  9. royals forever
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    15 days, 7 hours ago

    In your opinion who is the best Perez replacement out of

    KDB
    James
    Lanzini

    for this Midfield

    Salah Sterling Mount Dendoncker xxxxxxxx

    Any ideas would be welcomed

    1. Would Ed Woodward
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      One of these isn't like the others, obviously KdB is best but it depends what other changes they would mean.

      1. Kopkloppers
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        15 days, 7 hours ago

        Ed wood woodn't he?

    2. MeatPieSausageRoll
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      James a lot better than Lanzini and KDB imo

      1. Aftermath
        • 3 Years
        15 days, 7 hours ago

        Better than kdb? Seriously?

        1. Goodish
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          15 days, 7 hours ago

          Yes, this poster is always 100% serious

    3. Freddiebell
      • 3 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      Kdb the Lanzini

  10. De Gea is GOAT
    • 2 Years
    15 days, 7 hours ago

    A) Mount, Barnes, Haller

    Or

    B) Lanzini, Pukki, Abraham/Barnes

    1. diesel001
      • 2 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      B

    2. diesel001
      • 2 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      But Mount, Pukki, Haller might be best

      1. De Gea is GOAT
        • 2 Years
        15 days, 7 hours ago

        Thanks mate

        1. De Gea is GOAT
          • 2 Years
          15 days, 7 hours ago

          Barnes has excellent fixtures though. Still not convinced by Haller tbh

    3. Freddiebell
      • 3 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      No contest B

    4. Freddiebell
      • 3 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      Abrahams over Barnes

      1. De Gea is GOAT
        • 2 Years
        14 days, 18 hours ago

        Thanks mate. Leaning towards that too. Not too worried about Abrahams rotation?

  11. Kopkloppers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    15 days, 7 hours ago

    Son Haller or
    B sterling 4.5

    1. Goodish
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      A if you have to play the 4.5 striker because you’d be playing with 10 men. B otherwise

      1. Kopkloppers
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        15 days, 7 hours ago

        Not playing a 4.5

        1. Goodish
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          15 days, 7 hours ago

          I’d feel safer with Sterling. Son and Haller will do well most of the season but Sterling will be either the top points scorer or 2nd

  12. Goodish
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    15 days, 7 hours ago

    Gtg? Hope so because I’ve already used my transfer
    Pope
    VVD, Digne, Dunk, Lundstram
    Salah, Sterling, Anderson, Mount
    Aguero (c), Pukki
    Button, AWB, Cantwell, Wickham

  13. FirminoIsBetterThanYou
    • 2 Years
    15 days, 7 hours ago

    2 to start
    A). Pukki vs MCI
    B). Montoya vs BUR
    C). Digne vs bor

  14. Giggs Boson.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    15 days, 7 hours ago

    "Lionel Messi will be allowed to leave Barcelona on a free transfer next summer, should the 32-year-old Argentina forward desire" - L'Equipe

    If City get Messi the league will be over before it has started.

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      But could he do it on a cold Tuesday night at stoke? As Andy Gray once famously said lol

    2. Freddiebell
      • 3 Years
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      It's over already. City will win the title again without doubt. It's just a matter of time before they go top.

      1. Evo1983
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        15 days, 2 hours ago

        I wouldn’t write Liverpool off so easily mate.

        1. Slouch87
          • 3 Years
          15 days, 2 hours ago

          Booked for runners up. Squad depth will tell at some point.

    3. Goodish
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      15 days, 7 hours ago

      He should go to Liverpool and win them their first title in 30 years

  15. Here Comes The Son ★
    • 2 Years
    15 days, 7 hours ago

    Closest I've ever got on Super 6 and it's nonsense fixtures.

    4 correct scores, 2 correct results with 5-10 mins to go.

    1. Yank Revolution
      • 7 Years
      15 days, 6 hours ago

      Parlays are a ripoff, sucker's bet.

  16. Here Comes The Son ★
    • 2 Years
    15 days, 7 hours ago

    Coventry 2 - 2 Blackpool
    Fleetwood 2 - 1 Oxford
    Wycombe 2 - 1 Lincoln
    Bradford 1 - 1 Northampton
    Mansfield 2 - 0 Scunthorpe
    Morecambe 1 - 2 Salford

  17. ‘Tis the Season
    • 1 Year
    15 days, 5 hours ago

    Raz! Of course

  18. mlower
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    14 days, 1 hour ago

    Hello FFS moderators! When I look up TAA in the members data (player stats, defenders, sort by XGI), he is listed as having 1 assist and an XGA of .47, which sounds out of date to me. In this article, he appears with 2 assists and an XGA of 1.20, which sounds closer to current. How can I make sure I am getting the most up to date statistics? Thank you!

  19. FC Hakkebøf (Chopped…
    • 2 Years
    14 days, 1 hour ago

    Is it crazy to bench Pukki and play Ceballos? This is my reasoning:

    1) I don't have a city defender. Most people have a City defender + Pukki and will likely play both. If Norwich (read: Pukki) do not score, they will gain 4 pts from their City defender. If Pukki do score, their City defender blank. Either way, one of their assets will get a blank.

    2) I reckon not a lot of people will play Ceballos, but I can easily see Arsenal score 2-3 goals and I find it likely that Ceballos will be involved given he is their most creative asset, whereas I find it hard to see Pukki scoring, as City will be on the ball 75 percent of the game.

  20. emuuli
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    12 days, 15 hours ago

    A) AWB -> TAA & Siggy -> James
    B) Siggy -> Cantwell & Wickham -> Barnes

    Can't afford all of TAA, James, Barnes without destroying the rest of the team.
    PS: I have Robertson already and Pukki in attack.

    1. MTPockets
      • 10 Years
      12 days, 15 hours ago

      A

    2. MTPockets
      • 10 Years
      12 days, 15 hours ago

      Old article btw

      1. emuuli
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        12 days, 15 hours ago

        Ooh, didn't notice.. Thanks and thanks!