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7 September 2019 689 comments
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Fantasy managers who sign up as a Member to our website get access to a huge array of player and team statistics.

Among the underlying stats on offer is expected goal (xG) data, which many will be familiar with already.

For the uninitiated, xG is the measure of a quality of a chance based on criteria such as proximity of goal and angle of attempt.

For example, a shot from inside the six-yard box will carry a higher xG than a speculative effort from 35 yards.

Along the same lines, expected assist (xA) data calculates the quality of chance being created.

Expected goal data doesn’t predict when goals will be scored and isn’t a crystal ball for the future – rather, it is a measure of chances created in the past.

Nevertheless, many find xG data useful.

Fantasy managers can use the information to see which players are consistently being presented with – or providing – high-quality opportunities, which in turn can be helpful when making future team selections.

The rest of this article will be dedicated to looking at the xG data available in our Members’ Area, drawing attention to the players who have had significant expected goal involvement in 2019/20 so far and those who are under/overachieving based on their actual output.

Below are some of the most commonly used expected goal categories in our Members’ Area and the players featuring prominently in the respective tables.

While four matches is a small sample size, some familiar names are already leading the way.

All prices given in the tables and in the copy were correct at the time of writing (Friday).

Lessons learned from Gameweek 4

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  1. Colonel Shoe 肝池
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    is the break over yet 🙁

    1. el polako
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Wish it was after watching last night's atrocities.

  2. el polako
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    All these numbers confuse me, I'm a simple man...

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      This! Just pick one man ...

  3. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Jumped the gun too early to get TAA but fingers crossed it won't bite. What's the best play next week (after gw5) ?
    A. Dendoncker to Ceballos. Risk weak bench.
    B. Build fringe by Dendoncker to Cantwell (would be followed by Rico to Soyuncu soon).
    C. Look to hold.

    Pope
    TAA Digne Zinc Lundstram
    Mount Salah Sterling Kdb
    Haller Pukki
    Bench: Heaton Dendoncker Greenwood Rico (1.2itb)

    1. The Overthinker
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      C

    2. el polako
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Good team, C

    3. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Thanks - I'm looking at how best to use the 1.2 and its a classic first XI vs squad debate

  4. Pep Roulette
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Thoughts on my Wildcard team?

    Pope Button
    TAA Otamendi Masuaku Lundstram Kelly
    Salah KDB Iwobi Cantwell Guendouzi
    Aguero Aubameyang Wood

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Have anything left in the bank?

      1. Pep Roulette
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        No :/

    2. el polako
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Not sure that I would want to play Wood, and one of Ceballos(rotation) or Cantwell(unsutainable form) every week.

      1. el polako
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        *Guendozi - not only rotation but also lack of attacking potential.

    3. FOO FIGHTER
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Like the team though. Would change Iwoni.

      1. Pep Roulette
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Iwobi to James/Yarmolenko?

        1. FOO FIGHTER
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          Keep Iwobi then.

    4. Moderately content penguin
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Would you have considered Guendouzi or Iwobi before last week? One has very limited FPL potential and the other isn’t nailed.

      Masuaku? That’s one defence I wouldn’t want at all.

    5. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Masuaku Lundstram Kelly Iwobi Cantwell Guendouzi
      .... truly awful 🙂

  5. Annie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    I need to read up on expected goals and assists.
    If you add up all the expected assists do you get somewhere close to the expected goals? The tables here suggest not.

    1. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Not sure honestly, but as a rough guess:

      Expected goals would come from both chances that were created by a teammate (they would have an associated expected assist) plus chances created by an individual, stemming from a tackle / interception / opposition error etc (which would not have an associated xA).

      Furthermore, xA is an Opta generated stat so the grounds for an assist are a bit tighter than what they are in FPL, ie there's no 'Fantasy assists'. Would go a fair way to cause a greater disparity between xG and xA I guess.

    2. FPL.team
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Interesting question. I guess every expected assist must have an expected goal attached but not the reverse.

      You can have an expected goal from defensive mistakes or things that opta doesn't deem an assist such as rebounds etc.

    3. Annie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Seems to be a ratio of 2:1 which would make sense taking the above points into account

  6. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Who would you pick in these options? Fill the gaps if you can
    A. Dendoncker and (---) def up to 5.2.
    B. Cantwell and (---) def up to 4.9.
    C. Ceballos and 4.0 def (---).

    For what it's worth I have Den and Rico.

    1. el polako
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      A and find another 0.2 to get Otamendi.

      1. Fpl Richie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Have Zinchenko/3xcity

    2. Peter Ouch
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      B and pieters

      1. Fpl Richie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Interesting - even if you have Pope (have Heaton too)?

        1. Peter Ouch
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          I wouldn't double up on any defence except pools.
          Dunk maybe?

  7. AndyCook
    7 years, 1 day ago

    There is a line in this that is confusing, xG is not the measure of ‘the quality of a shot’ - the quality of the shot that comes from the opportunity to shoot is irrelevant, the player who shoots/attempts a shot has no influence on the xG other than the position and angle at which they receive the ball

    1. Annie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      It’s just about the position of the player when receiving the ball and position of defenders around him I guess.

    2. FPL.team
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      What is confusing about that? That's why better players outperform their xG because they put more of them away.

      If I have an open goal 3 yards out it's still an expected goal if I miss it or not.

      1. AndyCook
        7 years, 1 day ago

        I’ve been generous, it’s misleading and incorrect. It’s not the quality of the shot it’s the quality of the opportunity. The quality of the shot dictates if it goes in which isn’t want xG is measuring at all.

        1. AndyCook
          7 years, 1 day ago

          what xG*

        2. Rotation's Alter Ego
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 15 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          "Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance."

  8. AC Pilkington
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Currently on my WC, is KWP at 4.9m worth a punt? Or is he not nailed?

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      He is injured

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Aurier and Foyth about so probably not.

    3. BobbyDoesNotLook
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Just read news that Kwp expected back after IB snd Foyth 28.9.

    4. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Tweeted last weekend that he was out with a 'minor injury'. As an owner he would be a don't buy don't sell and see what happens against Palace next weekend.

      1. BobbyDoesNotLook
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        I agree. After recent news I expect him to start CRY but after that no idea if Foyth is back.

    5. St Pauli Walnuts
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Bugger, didn't know he'd dropped. So much for the FF Fix email notifications.

      Also, aren't flagged players supposed to be saved from a drop or something? Or is there a time limit on that?

      1. FPL.team
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Only locked when they go straight from red to green.

        1. St Pauli Walnuts
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          Oh right, so do you mean if a player is red they can drop as many times as the number of people ditching dictates but then if they go from red straight to green (not yellow in-between) their price will be protected until the next GW?

          If so, what's the thinking behind that then? In my mind it would make more sense for the opposite i.e. price to be protected for a GW if a players goes from green to red as injuries are luck based (to a certain extent, obviously there is a risk in picking an injury prone player) so FPL players shouldn't necessarily be penalised for that.

          Confused.com

  9. AC Pilkington
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Rate my WC please guys....

    Pope - McGovern
    TAA - KWP - Dunk - Soyuncu - Lundstram
    Mane - KDB - Sterling - Son - Cantwell
    Haller - Barnes - Nketiah

    If KWP is nailed then 4.9m is a steal

    1. el polako
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Nice team, not sure I would invest 9.5m in a asset from a team that is clearly "unhappy" camp.

      1. Peter Ouch
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Cause he a proven asset and he can be a great differential!

        1. el polako
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          And had a schocking 2nd part of last season.

          Personnally I would give myself game or two to asses the form of Son & Spurs.

          1. Peter Ouch
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 1 day ago

            If Ndombele is back then I think its worth giving him a chance.
            Eriksen and Vertoghen are here to stay so I think spurs will be back in track.
            They can definitely be better than this

            1. el polako
              • 9 Years
              7 years, 1 day ago

              Dont dispute Son's potential and that Spurs can get better however at the moment their form is anyones guess hence I would wait.
              9.5m is a lot of money to take punts.

              1. Peter Ouch
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 1 day ago

                Yeah price is the only negative factor here but to dare is to do!

    2. Conners
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Yeah, looks good. Only doubt is Son I guess, but with Spurs fixtures he could be a great pick.

    3. St Pauli Walnuts
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      I have KWP already and a bit miffed that he just dropped.

      Do you expect him to be fit for GW5 or just playing a longer game? I'm worried about Foyth nicking his spot too as Poch seems to rate him.

      Why Nketiah? May as-well get Wickham or Greenwood who at least have an outside chance of 1 point or greater.

    4. Nomar
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Why Nketiah?

      He's on a season long loan to Leeds so will not contribute a single point to your team.

      Greenwood or Wickham will at least be able to give you a chance of a point if you desperately need them to autosub into your lineup.

      KWP and Dunk can also now be considered as potential rotation risks that I wouldn't recommend taking on a wildcard.

      I suggest you need to have a rethink about those 3 players at least.

  10. Conners
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Hi

    Is Harry Wilson worth considering as a cheap 4th mid given Bournemouth's fixtures?

    1. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Maybe. I’d like to see some more games before considering

    2. Peter Ouch
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Not yet for me

    3. Conners
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Thanks

  11. Peter Ouch
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Which one you prioritise

    A Robbo---》》taa
    B Pukki---》》Haller

    1. Colonel Shoe 肝池
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      a

    2. FOO FIGHTER
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Why do you want to get rid of Pukki?

      1. Peter Ouch
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Cause I think Haller is a great place to own for the next few.
        West ham are a form based team and if you got the right player in the right momentum they can be rewarding.

    3. JT11fc
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      No the biggest fan of Haller yet so A

    4. Amey
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      B

    5. nicoTours
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      A.
      Unless your first striker is Kun, is there anyway you can have both Pukki and Haller?

      1. Peter Ouch
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        I have Pukki and barnes.
        I want barnes no matter what the rest are.
        So I have to decide in between Pukki and Haller

    6. Crisnel Ronessi
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      B

    7. Slitherene
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      B

  12. JT11fc
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Latest WC attempt
    Any thoughts or issues besides no pool?

    Pope
    Digne Trent Ota
    Mount Raz KdB Ceballos
    Auba Vardy Barnes

    4.0 Cantwell Soyunku Lundy

    1. JT11fc
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      No pool attack*

      1. Colonel Shoe 肝池
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        taa is pool attack 😉

        1. JT11fc
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          Exactly haha

        2. FPL.team
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          1 goal last season, I'd reconsider that thought. Salah and Mane both got 22.

      2. Colonel Shoe 肝池
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        maybe haller over vardy....but thats a personal thing

        1. JT11fc
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          Cheers

    2. nicoTours
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      No love for Lacazette? If you go for Arsenal attacker he could match Auba and you could upgrade maybe Ceballos.

      1. JT11fc
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Just the rotation worry i guess. If i knew he was nailed when not injured

    3. Moderately content penguin
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Really nice - one of the best I’ve seen

      Think Mount may prove to be an early season call. But he’s easy enough to lose. Ditto with Barnes.

  13. Chelsea91
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Pope
    Lund,Matip,Zinc
    Salah,Sterling,Mane,Cantwell,KDB
    Pukki,Barnes

    How was the team? Any suggestion?

    1. JT11fc
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Looks good id spread Mane money tho

      1. Chelsea91
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Planning to do Pukki to Ayew and Matip to TAA? I want to keep Mane.

        1. JT11fc
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          If your all about City and Pool then sure, the 2 best teams

          1. Chelsea91
            • 7 Years
            7 years, 1 day ago

            yes i want three pool and three city mate

    2. nicoTours
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Lundstram might not be a reliable week on week off asset.

      1. Chelsea91
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Anyone nailed for 4.4 m defender?

  14. Eat my goal!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Shame there is no cheap way into the arsenal team that would be rewarded

    1. JT11fc
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Ye unless you fancy a Cebballos punt or even better Kolasinac!! For just 2 or 3 gwks of course

      1. Eat my goal!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        If he played every game I think I’d be much more tempted

        1. Colonel Shoe 肝池
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          i havent seen enough data yet to show hell be regularly benched.....
          its a risk i agree

    2. Colonel Shoe 肝池
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      ceballos is fairly cheap but obvs comes with risk

      1. Colonel Shoe 肝池
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        ive just punted on him

        1. Eat my goal!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          Mounts fixtures aren’t great for the next two

          So am tempted, but also be gutted if he is benched

    3. Crisnel Ronessi
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Nobody at lb for arsenal

  15. Vpan
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    a) KDB - Vardy - Cantwell

    b) Kane - Mount - Ceballos

    c) KDB - Haller - Mount

    1. Vpan
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      I'm on B atm and thinking A or C

    2. JT11fc
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      C

    3. Colonel Shoe 肝池
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      c

    4. Vpan
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Would you do C for a hit this GW if you had the exact cash?

      1. FOO FIGHTER
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        I would love to have Vardy but would need get rid of Ageuro. Later on that is what I may do.

        I would not downgrade Aguero for Haller though.

        A for me.

      2. Majestic Chanka
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Would strongly consider it

  16. chelseabrad
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    What would you do from here?

    2 free transfers with nothing in the bank

    Heaton Button
    TAA VVD Digne Zinchenko Rico
    Salah Sterling Siggy Martial Dendoncker
    Pukki Jota Greenwood

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Downgrade Sig upgrade Jota.

      Replace Martial.

    2. Peter Ouch
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      The obvious one is to get rid of martial and Jota.
      Maybe Lanzini and barnes in

    3. Majestic Chanka
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Martial and Jota to Haller and Mount/Lanzini/James

    4. FOO FIGHTER
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Changes I would make but -4

      Sig, Martial and Jota

      To

      Tielemans, KDB and Barnes

  17. MEGPAL
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    And so it begins, the worst kind of weekend possible for us all. Stay strong guys, keep busy.

    1. Peter Ouch
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Going to Wembley in a few hours, this will ease the pain!

      1. Crisnel Ronessi
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Have fun

        1. Peter Ouch
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 1 day ago

          Cheers mate!

  18. FOO FIGHTER
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Downgrade Sig, upgrade Jota.

    Replace Martial.

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Fail

  19. Crisnel Ronessi
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Siiiiiiiuuuuuuuu |__o__|

  20. the dom 1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Is it game time yet lol

    1. Majestic Chanka
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Yes but the game is Gears of War 5

  21. Majestic Chanka
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Without giving too much away I’m surprised to see Milivojevic on the xA list, I’m assuming that is set pieces. With Gaz Cahill to aim for he might turn some of that into actual assists.

  22. chelseabrad
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Best mid for 7.4?

    1. JT11fc
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Maddison?

  23. AC Pilkington
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Would you say Siggy at 7.8m is good value on a WC or is he a no go?

    1. Conners
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Think I would prefer a punt on Richarlison tbh.

  24. Conners
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    On a WC and trying to decide 4th mid up to 6.4M. Mount and Tielemans best choice (fixtures aside)?

    Not keen on Ceballos/Trossard.

    1. Ask Yourself
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      It’s James for me. Love the Tielemans pick tho

    2. Crisnel Ronessi
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      I would go mount

  25. Crisnel Ronessi
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Gtg? Any suggestions.
    1.8 ITB

    Pope
    Robertson Digne Walker mings
    Kdb pulisic salah Maddison
    Pukki Kane

    Button lundstram cantwell Nketiah

    1. Conners
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Needs another City attacker. Kane to Aguero?

      1. Crisnel Ronessi
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        I am considering Kane to auba.

  26. New Community Article
    Rotation's Alter Ego
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    New Community article is up

    https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2019/09/07/community-tournaments/

    TopMarx has provided us with a supplement to his regular gameweek roundup, looking at how the standings in the various Fantasy Football Scout or FFS community Mini leagues are looking.

  27. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Would you play ;

    A) Maguire (LEI)
    B) Lundstram (SOU)

    I’m on Maguire but am I being blind sighted?

    1. Soto Ayam
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      B... Thinking vardy will relish playing against his ex team mate at old Trafford

      1. FOO FIGHTER
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Yeah, Vardy looking very dangerous and Leicester doing very well.

      2. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        Thanks guys

  28. Eat my goal!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    The state of the Brazil team these days

  29. 3 years & counting
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Thoughts on my WC team please?

    Pope/Button
    Robertson/Zinchenko/Digne/TAA/Lundstram
    Salah/KDB/James/Cantwell/Dendoncker
    Aguero/Abraham/Ayew

    Any suggestions would be much appreciated.

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Very strong defence but short in midfield.

    2. MR Penquin
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      How much you have left in the Bank ?

      1. 3 years & counting
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 1 day ago

        0.0 ITB

  30. AC Pilkington
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 day ago

    Which is a better plan for a WC?

    A) Get Son

    b) Get Firmino (and can turn into Vardy eventually)

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      Bobby

    2. 3 years & counting
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 1 day ago

      B