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Learning from the Great and the Good 20/21 – Gameweek 8

“What’s Next?”

A seismic shift is on the way as we see the end of an era and the beginning of a new one, no not the minor events in the US but the GW10 fixture swing. Are you ready for the blue wave?

Before we get ourselves ready for the next challenge, we had to get past what appeared to be a tricky Gameweek for The Great and The Good with last year’s top two battling it out, a tough captaincy call and the realization that we were investing in West Ham players.

The Great and The Good are the Scouts Neale Rigg and Joe Lepper, Pro Pundits (Mark SuthernsAzLateriserFabio Borges and Tom Freeman ), FPL “celebrities”, FPL General,  Magnus Carlsen and finally from the Hall of Fame we have Ville RonkaMatthew Jones and Sean Tobin

OVERALL PERFORMANCE

learning-from-the-great-and-the-good-20-21-gameweek-8

FPL General was our President-elect with the top score in Gameweek 8, his canny moves for Grealish and Chilwell gave him an instant boost in the polls, plus he had Watkins and Walker-Peters to thank for his landslide victory.

He was not the only one to see a surge at the ballot box as both Lateriser and Joe hit green arrows of 740,000 plus. There was something beautiful about Soucek finally scoring for Joe whilst Lateriser may consider himself a little fortunate as he had Targett’s eleven points come off the bench for Foden.

Matthew Jones will be blaming the postal vote as he missed out on the 21 points combined of Watkins and Taylor sat on his woodwork, despite this he still saw a huge surge in support for his rankings with a move up of 630,000 places.

The captain call was a straight choice between a couple of hot Spurs with Kane just edging out Son as the top nominee for The Great and The Good, he came good with a late goal. I wonder how many will be brave enough to move on Harry despite the tough fixtures ahead.

WEEKLY TRANSFERS

This is a summary of the transfers for this week :

Az – Ziyech (Pulisic)

Fabio Borges – No transfers

Joe Lepper – Chilwell (Robertson)

FPL General – Grealish, Chilwell (Podence, Alexander-Arnold)

Lateriser – No transfers

Magnus Carlsen – Rashford (Pulisic)

Mark Sutherns – Chilwell (Robertson)

Matthew Jones – Grealish, Chilwell (Havertz, Alexander-Arnold)

Neale Rigg – Bowen (Podence)

Sean Tobin – Coulfal (Saiss)

Tom Freeman – No transfers

Ville Ronka – Coulfal (Mitchell)

*transfers out are in brackets

Chilwell was the top transfer target this week rewarding his new owners with a goal after prospering from one of Ziyech’s sublime crosses from the west wing.

Talking of the new Wizard of West London he was Az’s recruit this week and looks a fine choice, his double-digit score puts him as front runner for the international break major bandwagon.

Whilst I have this platform the less glamorous pick of Coufal made by Sean and Ville looks a bargain, he is averaging 5 points per game over the five matches and has those lovely fixtures ahead.

TEMPLATE

The template for The Great and The Good is as follows with number in brackets showing how many teams in which they appear:-

Steer (7), Martinez (6)

Chilwell (9), Mitchell (6), Ayling (6), Lamptey/Walker-Peters/Alexander-Arnold (5)

Salah (12), Son (11), Grealish (8), Soucek (5), Rashford/Sterling/Burke/Podence (3)

Kane (10), Calvert-Lewin (9), Werner/Mitrovic/Bamford/Brewster (3)

A messy transition of power as there is little to no consensus on the template with a variety of options being considered in every position, the only safe Senator looks to be Salah as I suspect more changes over the international break with Wildcards to be played.

One certainty is that building a wall of Liverpool defenders is no longer a viable option as Robertson has left the squad and Alexander-Arnold is clinging on with a slim minority. Interesting to note our leader Fabio is only one to stay loyal to the double up.

CAPTAIN CALLS

Picking the correct Commander-in-chief has never as important with this weekend being a good example of the colour of your arrow being dictated by your armband call.

So, I took a straw poll of The Great and The Good to see who led the way in this debate with the results below:-

learning-from-the-great-and-the-good-20-21-gameweek-8 1

Salah has dominated the vote once again with 35% of the nominations, his nearest rival is Aubameyang with 17% thanks to some early success in the primaries.

learning-from-the-great-and-the-good-20-21-gameweek-8 2

Looking at the success or otherwise of the managers, Tom is the lead candidate with 138 points and what’s interesting here is that he is a firm Salah supporter, only moving away from him for the big games against Chelsea and this last week versus City.

This has been a trend for the most successful of the managers in this metric, the value of consistency in your captain choice in this season of inconsistency has never been so important.

This latest bulletin also highlights the importance of captaincy in our race to the FPL White House as most have secured well over a fifth of their total score from this key decision. It’s not fake news to say every armband counts!

CONCLUSION

The international break is upon us and we are need of a rest and a period of reflection after a torrid start for many of us including many of The Great and The Good.

I was curious to see comments that some of my loyal readers (yes, both of you) can take a perverse pleasure in seeing some of these prominent managers suffer the odd red arrow. Why is this?

I stumbled across this quote by University of Liverpool anthropologist Robin Dunbar, who or may not have been talking about these articles, “We need to keep an eye on the great-and-the-good because they create a sense of community for us, but also because we need to make sure that they are holding to their side of the bargain.”

For me, I believe seeing a few ranks in the millions is reassuring for us and shows that maybe the grass isn’t always greener on the other side when these well-known managers find themselves struggling just the same.

Whatever the reason, let’s hope the break gives us all chance to recharge our batteries and make FPL great again!

Anyway, that’s all from me for now and remember don’t have nightmares.

For those effected by any of the topics raised in the above article then you can find me on Twitter at https://twitter.com/Greyhead19

 

 

25 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Rotation's Alter Ego
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Brilliant, thank you Greyhead - interested to see what (if any, of course) WC teams come up.

    Great point on the comfort of seeing one of these managers struggling. Anything to feel like the fault doesn't fully lie with me 😉

    1. Greyhead
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Thanks RAE - misery does enjoy company 🙂

  2. Lateriser 12
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Great read as always Greyhead. Expecting the managers to make leeway into the Top 100k very soon.

    1. Greyhead
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Thanks. Yes, the only way is up but current shift in fixtures gives opportunity which I am sure The Great and The Good will take.

  3. Thighland
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    First post, be gentle...
    Kane to ?

    1. Greyhead
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Thank you. Keep Kane? Or Vardy but difficult to know without context of team.

      1. Thighland
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        McCarthy
        Chillwell, Robertson, Cresswell, Lamptey, Mitchell
        Rodriguez, Salah, Grealish, Ziyech, Podence
        Kane, Mitrovic, Calvert-Lewin

        Thinking Kane & Podence to Bruno & Watkins for next 2-3 weeks before WC.

        Rodriguez, Salah, Grealish, Ziyech, Fernandes
        DCL, Watkins

        Is a decent front-7 with decent fixtures.

    2. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Kane

  4. Thighland
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    ps - great roundup Greyhead. Cheers.

  5. FPLShaqiri
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Couple of transfer routes I am considering:
    McCarthy
    TAA, Robbo, Chilwell
    Salah, Rodriguez, Son, Grealish, Podence
    DCL, Martial

    (Steer, Ayling, Ferguson, Davis)... 1FT, 0.2ITB

    A) GW9: TAA, Son - Dann, KDB (-4). Leaves exact amount for Podence to Jota GW10 if there is evidence he will get good minutes. Liverpool fixtures start to improve again so happy to keep the triple up. Any other Podence replacements?
    B) GW9: TAA, Davis - Dann, Watkins (-4). GW10: Son, Podence - KDB, fodder (-4). I would move to 3-4-3, with Podence possibly benched GW9.
    C) GW9: TAA - Dann. GW10: Son - KDB. Could do Podence to Jota/other as well for a hit

    Given these options should I move early on TAA - Dann tonight? Dann isn't great but rotates well with Ayling, should get at least 1 clean sheet over next 3, and don't really want to spend much on the position.

    1. Greyhead
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Tricky - depends how attach you are to value. I prefer to wait until later in IB as there may be other issues/options that arise. C would be my preference from what you’ve outlined above.

      1. FPLShaqiri
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks Greyhead, nice round up btw 🙂

        Reading up on Palace forum and not certain Dann is nailed with Cahill fit, plus he's injury prone so will avoid him. Not usually too attached to team value, but mine is already quite low this season (101.3). Probably because my fodder options lost value and I don't have Kane.

  6. fusen
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I think one of the most interesting things to watch going forward here is what can be done to recover your FPL season.

    Starting off with a quarter of the season gone already and ranks of more than 1.5 million, how far does, clearly a good understanding of what does and doesn't generally work in FPL, take you in a final overall rank?

    I posted something to one of the main posts which is much more relevant here - https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2020/11/10/watkins-making-strong-case-for-villa-double-up-with-in-form-grealish/?hc_page=3&hc_sort_by=comment_date#hc_comment_22782022
    which is summed up as, anyone covered by these articles who can recover to finish anywhere close to their normal expected final rankings has truly shown they are the top players in the world.

    It would almost be good to have the Hall of Fame record the lowest overall rank a player has been in a season compared to their final overall rank to give an indication of what they can do in their journey to the finish line.

    1. FPL Theorist
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I think a lot of it is just about how the pricing worked out this year. It required paying a premium to get the reliable Liverpool and Man City assets that top managers have had faith in. Meanwhile, assets like Spurs and Everton were priced low enough to encourage other managers to take punts on less "reliable" assets -- which have mostly paid off. The fact that Liverpool and Man City assets started with relatively poor fixtures (they are only now getting to play Fulham and WBA after the IB), together with injuries to VVD and City strikers, further rewarded those willing to go for more "punty" picks.

    2. FPL_Motty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Thing is, I don't think the best managers always start well anyway. Im nowhere near a great FPL manager but played this game for many years. And the same thing happens to me every year, the beginning quarter of the year is the most difficult. Its very difficult predicting the best promoted team bargains, along with who gains form first, who the bandwagons are etc, very volatile in the beginning and I just focus on trying to keep pace. I ALWAYS catch up from december onwards and climb the highest through the rankings in the last quarter of the year. I can consistently finish around the top 100K and sometimes 10K when I've been luckier. I think this is probably because the more prepared and experienced manager has more opportunities to gain over the crowd and not miss the big moments, where there are blanks and double gameweeks, planning for these makes HUGE swings. I dont want to use the word casual, but many many teams fall away over christmas because they aren't prepared for injuries and rests without the right bench. Many teams use up their chips in the beginning and get ahead but the best managers wait for the most opportune moments and make up huge ground later in the year. My 2p

      1. FPL Theorist
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah, I figure you can shave 80% off your Christmas rank just by playing the chips wisely, unless your rank is already outstanding (in which case you're competing with other managers who are doing the same).

        Once things start going badly for casuals, then many will fall into a pattern of taking hits every week to try and reverse the trends, which generally doesn't work.

    3. The Rumour Mill
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Interesting post. I would say the one thing in their favour is that they are most likely chasing down FPL managers who are generally bigger risk takers and who don't play the odds like they do. My impression so far is that managers have been rewarded substantially for low probability calls which have gone largely in their favour (i.e. backing Spurs early and with the captaincy). If these managers continue to back against the odds the chances are they will fall down the rankings. I suppose the risk now is that having got up to the top 10k, they now play defensively to stay there, which make make them difficult to differentiate from and thus hard to catch.

      1. Greyhead
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Reminds me of a post from someone wiser than me that the key to FPL is Skill + Luck + Engagement. Lot more decisions to be made and I see some big leaps for the more “engaged” managers.

    4. Bojam
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Nice post Fusen! Really interesting to hear people's take on this. I rarely start well and this season has been particularly challenging. Was down at 3.8m after GW2. Have managed to clamber my way back towards some degree of respectibility (inside the top 800k now) and built up a healthy TV (103.4m) while taking 16 points of hits and kind of wasting my wildcard early.

      Hoping that steady and sensible transfer policy now will help me to continue climbing and then maybe I'll be in a decent position to gamble a bit in the final quarter. Take some risks and play the chips well. On the WGTA podcast this week, they mentioned that the ranks are unusually bunched together this season, especially between 500k and 2m. So still loads to play for even for those who have had a terrible start.

      1. fusen
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        The rank bunching is definitely a key thing to consider. I was worrying a little when seeing my distance to 100k is around the same to 500k, so every point matters, even more than normal.

        1. Thighland
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          I went from 1.2m to 200K in 3 weeks last season (on restart), so huge moves seem to come later in the season?
          Difficult, but not impossible, to jump 6 or 700k right now but as seen above.
          This is the first season (in 4) that I've ever been inside the top 100. Seems easier to stay there than to break in. Probably preaching to the converted here though.

        2. Greyhead
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Yeah, looked back at old data from a couple of years ago and in 2018/19 the gap was 70pts between 1m and 100k, whilst this year it’s just 53. Huge opportunity to make some big greens if you keep the faith.

  7. Guga
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Thx for the post. This is my first year taking FPL seriously. Always started it as a spare time game and would lose interest along the way. Because of that, in 4 years of playing my highest ever rank is somewhere around 210k with an 800k ranking last year. Sometimes we need motivation as the "small dudes in the game" and this year I personally have a great motivation. You see as a sport fan I adore the big stars and wonder "what if". Now in my mind Magnus Carlsen is one of the smartest persons on the planet with a super high IQ and a history of being smart ( Chess is for the smart). To see him playing FPL and doing well is expected. Now my motivation is to beat Magnus Carlsen this year. Imagine what I can say to my friends in my mini-league if I'm lucky and savvy enough to accomplish this? These are the little things which motivate us "the little men" in FPL. So far i must say, I am "holding my own". After a gameweek score of 74 (-4) I'm ahead of not only Magnus, but also the "Great and the Good" crew. Can this trend continue? Lets wait and see. To all those looking for inspiration, find yours! It might just be, beating FPL Andy

    1. Greyhead
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Thanks Guga - good luck in your quest!

  8. Abx19
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    This has been such a strange season, even the best are struggling.