Spot the Differential
23 April 2021 420 comments
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Blank Gameweek 33 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Liverpool, Arsenal and Wolves who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Sadio Mané

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £11.7m
  • GW33-37 fixtures: NEW | mun | SOU | wba | bur

Sadio Mané (£11.7m) has struggled for form at Liverpool this season, particularly since the turn of the year, but was back among the goals in Double Gameweek 32 as he helped the Reds to a 1-1 draw at Leeds United.

The Senegalese forwards first-half strike at Elland Road represented his first in the Premier League since netting against Tottenham Hotspur back in January, and the hope is now that a weight has been lifted off his shoulders, and he can finish the season strongly.

His lack of form in 2021 is hard to explain. He has underperformed his expected goals (xG) by 3.43 in the league, compared to an overperformance of 3.89 in 2019/20, when he scored 18 Premier League goals and provided 10 assists. However, he is shooting more often this term, but has perhaps been missing that explosiveness in certain moments which makes his such a threat in the final-third.

Pleasingly for FPL managers, in light of Liverpool’s exit from the Champions League, the focus for Jürgen Klopp’s side is now entirely geared towards finishing in the top four. That should mean that rotation is kept to a minimum, and with a favourable run of fixtures till the end of the season, which starts with Newcastle United tomorrow, pairing Mané with Mohamed Salah (£12.6m) could be a shrewd move for those willing to move away from the midfield template.

Crucially, the recent return to top form of Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) could make all the difference. He is Liverpool’s top chance creator over the last six matches and, excluding Fantasy assists, the right-back has provided more assists for Mané (eight) than any colleague since his Premier League debut.

Meanwhile, Newcastle are second-worst for giving up headed attempts on goal during the same period, in which Mané is second only to Nathaniel Phillips (£4.1m) for aerial shots among Liverpool players.

It is fair to say we’ve seen a dip in Mané’s usual standards this year, but with his confidence growing, and circumstances elsewhere in the team, he could be a nice differential pick for the run-in, especially in Blank Gameweek 33.

Gabriel Martinelli

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £4.9m
  • GW33-37 fixtures: EVE | new | WBA | che | cry

Gabriel Martinelli (£4.9m) returned from an injury problem earlier this season, but has found first-team opportunities limited over the past few months. However, he has now started back-to-back Premier League matches and made a real impact.

Against Sheffield United, he took his chance and scored, and was then handed another start against Fulham on Sunday. Playing most of the match off the left, his clever movement tormented Ola Aina (£4.5m) throughout, and he was perhaps unfortunate not to return again, given his good underlying numbers and -1.36 expected goal involvement (xGI) delta.

Game time has been the only issue holding the Brazilian back, but with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.3m) currently unavailable having contracted malaria, plus Alexandre Lacazette (£8.4m) out with a hamstring injury, Martinelli should keep his starting spot in Gameweek 33. He may even take up a central role with Mikel Arteta suggesting centre forward is his best position.

Whilst Arsenal will have one eye on their Europa League semi-final against Villarreal next week, tonight’s fixture against Everton remains an important one as they look to finish as high as possible in the Premier League. After that, they travel to relegation battling Newcastle United, before returning home to the Emirates for a tie against West Bromwich Albion, another team hoping to avoid the drop.

In a relatively short space of time, Martinelli has proven he has the ability to thrive in the Premier League, and could be a useful budget asset for the run-in.

Daniel Podence

  • FPL ownership: 1.1%
  • Price: £5.3m
  • GW33-37 fixtures: BUR | wba | BHA | tot | eve

Despite a stop-start first full season at Wolverhampton Wanderers, largely due to injuries, Daniel Podence (£5.3m) is showing signs that he is almost back to full fitness.

The 25-year-old was among Wolves’ best players in the opening weeks, netting a goal as well as providing two assists in six appearances between Gameweek 1 and 7. However, two separate injuries stalled his progress and have forced him to miss the majority of 2021.

Now back in the starting XI, he was unfortunate not to register an assist against Fulham in Gameweek 31, after Willian José (£6.8m)’s goal on the stroke of half-time was ruled out by a tight VAR call. And while it’s fair to say he was nowhere near his top-level against Sheffield United last weekend, he did play a key role in starting the attack for the game’s only goal.

The number 10’s appeal is further boosted by the visit of Burnley on Sunday. Uncharacteristically, the Clarets have been making lots of defensive errors recently, keeping just two clean sheets in their last 15 matches. It is also worth noting that over the last six, only the Blades’ have conceded more big chances.

With Pedro Neto (£5.6m) requiring surgery and ruled out for the remainder of the season, his absence could allow Podence to thrive, and rediscover his best form in the final six games.

420 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Rhodes your boat
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    1) best defender up to 5.5

    2 best mid up to 6.0

    1. S I L V E R F O X
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Depends on who you have already?

      Best:
      Defender:
      Shaw - 5.4 for price

      Mid
      Dallas - 5.2

  2. Vjm6891
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Defence - DO I go with 3 Brighton (1 GK) & TAA or Saiss, 2 Brighton 1 (GK) & TAA?

    Also, is Greenwood definitely going to play? Seems in good form but just wondering if he gets rotated?

    1. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      2nd option

      With White out, I would not want to rely on BHA defense too much

    2. S I L V E R F O X
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Greenwood maybe at risk for rotation with Cavani.

      Sanchez (brighton GK) is only for this week, you will have to change again as difficult games coming after,
      Patricio has better games, then maybe switch to Meslier who has the last 3 games easy. TAA is a must, Saiss and coady are both good shouts for the next 2 games

  3. Catastrophe
    • 15 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Help greatly appreciated! 1 FT, 0.1 ITB.

    Martinez
    Shaw, Dallas, Dunk, Phillips*
    Salah, Fernandes, Jota, Lingard
    Watkins, Lacazette*

    (Sanchez, Holding, Son*, Kane*)

    A) Lacazette -> Iheanacho
    B) Lacazette & Son -> Iheanacho & Greenwood (-4)
    C) Lacazette, Son & Phillips -> Iheanacho, Greenwood & TAA (-8)
    D) Something Else

    Thinking A, although it only leaves one sub with Phillips a doubt, so considering the hit!

    Cheers

    1. Cookie Kid
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      A - keep it simple!

    2. Perthite
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      A

  4. pjomara
    • 15 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Any chance Lacazette will be fit to start against Newcastle in GW34?
    He would be worth keeping if so, especially as he has a potential DGW of WBA and Chelsea the week after

  5. Sean
    • 16 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Who is nailed at the back for Everton apart from Digne? Is it just Keane or is Holgate also an option?

  6. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Mendy
    Alonso taa shaw saiss
    Trossard mount lingard salah(c) saka
    Iheanacho

    Subs steer vydra cresswell kane

    Gtg ?

    1. BERGKOP
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Gtg

  7. Al-Chemy
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Which team do we think will keep more clean sheets over the next three?

    A) Leicester
    B) Brighton

    1. BERGKOP
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      A

    2. pjomara
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I think Brighton defenders will have more clean sheets but Leicester defenders will score more points.

  8. S I L V E R F O X
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Patricio
    Coady - Alexander Arnold - Veltman - Shaw
    Lingard - Salah - Bruno - Jota
    Watkins - Iheanacho

    Bench
    (Meslier GK - Bowen - Wood - Dias)

    Transfers (-4 pts)
    Mendy (out) - Patricio (in)
    Kane (out) - Watkins (in)

    Bank : £4.8 Million
    overall points: 2037

    Should i have chosen Vardy over Watkins?

    1. pjomara
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      No, good decision
      - Watkins better value
      - Both similar fixtures short term, but Watkins better fixtures in last 3 GWs

      1. S I L V E R F O X
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks Pjomara!

  9. Tshelby
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Bottomed

    Too far fetched
    My wc team:

    Martinez, Guiata
    TAA, Veltman, Coady, Dallas, Castagne
    Greenwood, Salah, Jota, Maddison, Lingard
    Kane, DCL, Nacho

    1. S I L V E R F O X
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      wheres Cavani?

  10. Jones Kusi
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    What would you do here?
    2 FT 0.2 ITB
    No chips left

    Forster Mendy
    Rudiger Philips Fofana Coady Holding
    Lingard Jota Salah Son Bruno
    Nacho Kane Davis

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Similar position and stuck. Could do Kane >> Vardy perhaps?

    2. sneif4
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Kane to Vardy. Castagne could be good for a few games

  11. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Keep Jota/consider other moves ?

    0.1ITB

    Mendy
    TAA/Castagne/Shaw/Rudiger/Holding
    Salah/Bruno/Jota/Lingard
    Nacho

    Forster/Davis/Son/Kane

    1. Utopsis
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Wait till presser

  12. chelseabrad
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Good to save this week?

    Schmeichel
    TAA Azpi Shaw Saiss Holding
    Salah Jota Mount Lingard
    Iheanacho

    (Forster Wood Kane Son)

    BB'ed last week hence the expensive def

  13. Blanka
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Liverpool presser today, before deadline?

    1. Il Capitano
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      13:30

      1. Blanka
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers bud!

  14. fish&chips
    • 15 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Alonso, moura, jota -> Greenwood, maddison, castagne (-8)

    A) yes
    B).no

    1. BERGKOP
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      A

      1. fish&chips
        • 15 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        I think you backed me for my last big hit that paid off. Is it a sign? Haha cheers mate. I guess I'll wait for news on jota first

        1. BERGKOP
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Haha I can see big upside but I've been taking more hits this season to keep it interesting.

    2. Konstaapeli
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      B

      1. fish&chips
        • 15 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks

        1. Konstaapeli
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          I just think -8 is a bit too much so late in a season.

          1. fish&chips
            • 15 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            You may well be right. Bit of a gamble that's for sure

  15. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    2FTs. 0.1itb. Burn the transfer?

    Gundog >> 5.9? Mendy >> Sanchez? Any other ideas?

    Mendy
    TAA. Shaw. Coady. Rudiger
    Salah. Bruno. Jota. Lingard
    DCL. Iheanacho
    (Forster, Holding, Kane*, Gundog*)

    1. chelseabrad
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Mendy > Schmeichel / Sanchez

  16. GoonerSteve
    • 16 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    A bit unsure what to do here and still smarting from having benched Veltman (6) and played Stones.(-2) last gameweek.

    I want to swap Stones for TAA but I am 0.7 short.

    So its a 4pt hit and either:

    Targett to Holding
    or
    Son to Maddison
    or
    Kane to Vardy

    Or something else?

    Current team:

    Martinez, Fabri
    Dallas. Targett, Coufal, Veltman, Stones
    Son, Salah, Fernandes, Jota, Lingard
    Nacho, Kane, Brewster

    1ft, 1,7itb

  17. OPTA FPL
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Play Messlier (MUN) or Pope (Wolves)?

    1. jimbobmij
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Pope, Wolves offence is toothless

    2. Cookie Kid
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Pope

  18. jimbobmij
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Bench one:

    A) Pulisic
    B) Podence
    C) Bertrand Traore

    Thanks 🙂

    1. Salarrivederci
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Think you answered yourself with the comment above 😉

      1. jimbobmij
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        I want to believe in him though 🙁

  19. chelseabrad
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Play one:

    A) Azpilicueta (whu)
    B) Holding (EVE)
    C) Wood (wol)

    1. Cookie Kid
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      B

  20. Digne do well
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Bringing in a Wolves defender?

    A. Coady
    B. Saiss

    1. Cookie Kid
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      B

  21. Doug McCasual
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    rapinha to harrison for a hit? if not i've only got 10 playing

    1. Cookie Kid
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Probably not but I don't like hits - will you want Raph back?

      1. Doug McCasual
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Leeds have good fixtures after man u, but ive heard rumours he's out longterm

        1. HammersXI
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 10 months ago

          Don’t spread lies. There’s no news of a long term injury. And he wasn’t even ruled out this week yet

          1. Doug McCasual
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 10 months ago

            Like i said, rumours bro. Who knows how legit it is..but Bielsa did just say at the presser he's not in training yet

  22. Sid07
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Chances of vydra starting??

  23. finnish92
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Digne or Azpi to TAA?

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Chelsea do have the better defence by far, but our run-in is pretty difficult. Azpi won't really get you any attacking points either.

      Although I hate him with a passion, Digne has the higher potential. Possibly WB/LW in some matches, no blanks, a DGW, and AVL/SHU/WOL.

  24. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Plan to WC next week or when DGW plans gets clear but...
    Mendy
    Alonso Veltman Digne
    Salah(C) Jota Bruno(V) Lingard Raphinha
    Nacho Bamford
    Meslier Coufal Kane Dias
    A) GTG
    B) Kane to Vardy for a hit (bench Raphina)

  25. TVPlugSockets
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    I’ve got Mendy and Forster. Are people expecting either of those to play or do I need to use a transfer

    1. Salarrivederci
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Pretty sure Forster won't play 🙂 !

    2. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Just keep Mendy. High chance he plays and you'll be annoyed at wasting a transfer when he does.

    3. CAREFREEE
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I'm in exactly the same position.

      Going to hold both, as I think Mendy will play.

  26. Miguel Sanchez
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Captain Salah, Nacho or Greenwood?

    1. not_astarte
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      nacho

    2. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I’m on Salah

    3. Free Hat
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Salah owes me some double cpt figures so

    4. BERGKOP
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Salah

  27. Easy Cheesy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Son, dier, jota -> salah, taa, saka for a -8?

    1. not_astarte
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      is Jota not playing?

    2. Konstaapeli
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      That might be the best -8 I have seen today and might do my self.

  28. Konstaapeli
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Best long term def to bring in for Cresswell

    A) Digne
    B) Saiss
    C) Castagne
    D) Targett

    1. Traction Engine Foot
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      I'm most keen on C. The potential blank is annoying though

    2. Free Hat
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      C and or A. Certainly not Targett. Villa dont look good att and def anymore.

    3. BERGKOP
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      C

  29. Mr. Mystic
    • 15 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Veltman or Holding? (Already have White)

    1. not_astarte
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      veltman

  30. Free Hat
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 10 months ago

    Transferred in Saka for Raphinha.
    Honestly think its not worth it with Laca, Auba out... But heck, just so I can watch the game tonight with more interest!

    1. Qaiss
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 10 months ago

      Feel like Saka might do well tonight, just a worry he doesn’t play next week against Newcastle

      1. Free Hat
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 10 months ago

        Will be tricky indeed.
        Trossard was an option as well, but last gws barely 70 minute mark. Dont trust Potter fully.