Pro Pundits

From safe to high-risk: Four Free Hit drafts for FPL Gameweek 37

Pras and Sonaldo the latest additions to the FFScout team

What a nice feeling this is, to have a deadline almost 48 hours after the press conferences. Time to relax and reflect. This is, of course, unless you are on a Free Hit. For those of us using this chip, we all have another 48 hours to overthink things!

For my final article this season, I’ll share some thoughts on Free Hit drafts heading into the deadline at 10.30am BST on Sunday. More specifically, I want to talk about what options we have to calibrate the risk profile of the Free Hit, taking into account your rank goals or mini-league state. I’ll go from the straight bat, forward defensive to the ‘six in the stands’ draft. Remember though, the riskier your shot, the higher the likelihood of getting out. 

Template locks

With good reason, I see seven players locked in most Free Hit teams. These are:

  • Jordan Pickford 
  • Matty Cash, Lucas Digne 
  • Mohamed Salah, Son Heung-min 
  • Richarlison, Danny Ings

One could argue that Philippe Coutinho or Ollie Watkins could make it, instead of say, Digne, if they were nailed to start both games. But with Steven Gerrard’s comments yesterday on Watkins’ availability for the Crystal Palace game, it reduces the appeal for both players on a Free Hit: Watkins for obvious reasons but I say Coutinho as well because if Watkins does indeed return against Burnley, there is a risk Villa play two up top with Emiliano Buendia in behind. I’m not suggesting this will happen, I’m just saying it’s a risk. I should also add that for those not on a Free Hit, both Coutinho and Watkins are easy holds. Both could play 120 mins+, which may be enough.

The above seven take up about £61m of the budget. Add another £16.6m for the four bench spots and we have a total £77.6m spend. How can we calibrate risk for the remaining £25-27m?

The safe draft

Using the remainder of the budget to add the two highest owned defenders and a high owned forward is the safest Free Hit draft in my view. There is limited upside but also very limited downside. I have essentially used up the remaining budget on Harry Kane, Jooa Cancelo and Trent Alexander-Arnold (or Andrew Robertson, for those with a low team value).

With this team, I own four of the five most owned players in the top 10k. The missing one is Bukayo Saka, who you can cautiously back against given the tougher fixture on paper away to Newcastle. 

A word on Kane v Kevin De Bruyne. Despite the Belgian’s unreal performance versus Wolves in midweek, I am backing Kane. I think with Gabriel Jesus and Riyad Mahrez likely coming back into the fold, it will change De Bruyne’s role back to the assister. He may do splendidly there as well but when you also add the fact that West Ham are playing their final home game, I expect the Hammers to put in a disciplined performance and stay competitive till the end.

Kane on the other hand will be on a high after the strong outing in the north London derby. Spurs can smell fourth place, and this should mean a strong performance at home to Burnley to keep the pressure up on Arsenal, who themselves have a tough away game at St James’ Park.

The bold draft

In the next version, let’s take away the 86% owned (in the top 10k) City defender, Joao Cancelo. This draft turns him into Diogo Jota or Luis Diaz depending on whoever gets fewer minutes in the FA Cup final on Saturday. To fund this, it also removes Kane or De Bruyne to a 0.27%-owned Jamie Vardy, who doubles vs Watford and Chelsea. If somehow we get news pre-deadline that Vardy starts the Watford game, it may be worth going there.

This gives the draft more upside, both from an effective ownership perspective but also in the fact that it attacks the Southampton fixture that Liverpool may use to make a final push to close the goal difference on Man City.

The very bold draft

The next draft removes another 86% owned (in top 10k) defender in Alexander-Arnold and upgrades Jota to De Bruyne. Is it high risk? Yes? Could it pay off? Of course.

While this team looks really good on paper, I do worry about only having one player in a well-owned Liverpool team against a Southampton side that have looked dire recently. When you add that “risk” to also not owning Cancelo and Kane, two popular players in non-Free Hit drafts, you are indeed in very high-risk/high-reward territory.

The ‘YOLO’ draft

Want to throw everything into this Gameweek? Don’t care if you lose 20-50k in rank, as long as you can tell the grandkids you tried? Well, then sell Mohamed Salah for Sadio Mane. The money saved can go into upgrading Vardy back to Kane, so you’ve got four big-hitters from Liverpool, City and Spurs all in one draft. For those that can’t get to this because of team value, can downgrade Vitalli Mykolenko or Cash to the centre-backs from those teams eg. Mason Holgate and Tyrone Mings.

There are, of course, many other variants to the Free Hit in Gameweek 37. One can add James Maddison, Anthony Gordon and Coutinho and/or change the formation. I stuck to the paths that I have been considering the most. It’s fair to say that I am currently looking at variants #1 and #2, but that is because I am currently ranked at 9.5k, which is close to my end-of-season goal. 

Lots may counter this piece and say, you should simply pick the team that scores the most points. To them I say, I think all these teams score similar points. What differentiates them is the volatility in rank change if things work out better or worse than the expectation.

Good luck whatever path you choose. We’re nearly there, folks!

2,182 Comments Post a Comment
  1. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Hoping to chase down as much OR as possible! Currently on 200k. What’re your thoughts on this?

    Pickford
    Robertson, Cash, Mykolenko
    Son, Trossard, Zaha, KDB, Jota
    Kane, Ings (C)

    (Steele, Tsimikas, Veltman, Richardson)

    1. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      What is that?

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Your WC team?

        1. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Haha “what is that?!” What the hell do you call that?!

          Sorry, yer, FH37.

          1. Baps hunter
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 year, 10 months ago

            "What’re your thoughts on this?" 😉

            Trossard in it made me wonder if it is your "bus team" or FH team... So I really needed to ask. I have 6 same players and my current "normal" team is:

            Pickford / Dubravka
            Cash, Cancelo, James, Alonso, TAA
            Son, KdB, Zaha, Maddison, Coutinho
            Kane, Gelhardt, Greenwood

            If we play this gw imaginary H2H, how many pts you expect to win(?) against my team. You are given +4 pts though 🙂

    2. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      I would start Tsimikas over Robbo

  2. Art Vandelay
    • 13 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Cash or Myko for Dias?

    1. CravenA
      • 14 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Cash for me.

    2. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Neither!

      1. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        I misunderstood! Cash!

    3. Art Vandelay
      • 13 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Cheers.

  3. Flynny
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Hi....Good to go with this free hit? Undecided on captain

    Pickford
    Taa myko cash (clyne tsimi)
    Kdb son coutinho zaha (brownhill)
    Kane richarlison ings

    Thanks

    1. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Yer looks good!

      I think the consensus is Son if holding/blocking; Ings is chasing.

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Looks great

      1. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Cheers.....capt will either be ings or richi

        Like the idea of ings....worried he gets injured in that first game tho!!

  4. putana
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    who would you sell between robbo and trent?

    1. Calv1n
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      TAA for the money

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      I think robbo as more likely to not play 37 imo

    3. Calv1n
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      “Robbo (Andy Robertson) had a cramp and that’s completely fine, I’m surprised not more had it given what we had to do tonight.”

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Needs a rest still, CL final is the most important thing, Tsimikas can cover in PL now.

  5. Sheffield Wednesday
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    On FH. Vardy or Ings?

    1. Sheffield Wednesday
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Or get both and drop Richarlison?

    2. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Ings

    3. JabbaWookiee
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      I’m currently on Vardy, Kane and Richarlison on mine. Do like Ings though

      1. Sheffield Wednesday
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Yes those are the four to choose from it seems.

    4. Stranger Mings
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Ings

  6. FPL Bargain
    • 10 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    RMT latest free hit draft. Changes? Risks?

    Pickford
    Cash Digne Mykolenko Holgate
    KDB Son Louis-Diaz
    Kane Vardy Ings

    Zaha Brownhill Vletman

    1. Danstoke82
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Surely you’ve got to start Zaha over one of those Everton defenders? Triple Everton defence is risky

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Zaha over holgate Shirley

      1. FC Hakkebøf
        • 7 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        +1

  7. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Any Liverpool on FH? Much rotation probably

    1. Danstoke82
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      I’ve currently got TAA and Diaz. Although I’m thinking of benching TAA. Can’t fit him into my team at the expense of the DGWers and KDB, Son, Kane & Diaz.

  8. The Frenchie
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Salah / Mount / TAA out for?

    A) KDB / Richarlison / Mykolenko (-4)
    B) Son / Richarlison / Mykolenko (-4)
    C) KDB / Son / Richarlison (-8)

  9. Malkmus
    • 12 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Evening all. 1ft, 0.1 itb. If I do Salah to son and Dennis to Ings for -4 it will give me

    Ramsdale (foster)
    Trent - Cancelo - Robbo - James
    Son - kdb - saka - kulu
    Ings - Richa (c)

    Subs - Martinelli, Davies, Gelhardt

    Any thoughts? -8 seems too much

    Ta

    1. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Trent/Robbo might be in for a rest due to the FA cup imo. Worth to note

      1. Malkmus
        • 12 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Thanks yeah thinking the same. Play Davies ahead of one ?

  10. FC Hakkebøf
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    A) Richarlison and Zaha (have to play one of them next week)
    B) Richarlison and Son
    C) Richarlison and Mane
    D) Kane and Zaha

    Leaning towards A or B. Then Zaha or Richarlison to Son or Kane next.

  11. T88MYE
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    I’m chasing in a cash league with a FH.. name your differential!

    1. FeverPitch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Vardy, Foden, Diaz, Sessegnon

      1. T88MYE
        • 8 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Talk me into Foden & Diaz..

        Have Vardy!

        1. FeverPitch
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Foden is there or there abouts with KDB in most stats recently for much less. From what I saw the other day he could have got a huge haul. Diaz is attacking a dreadful Southampton defence who have conceded twice the amount of chances on his wing than on the other side. He obviously might not start though after tonight!

          1. T88MYE
            • 8 Years
            1 year, 10 months ago

            Yeah it’s the Diaz shout over a maddy or Couthino though.

            Foden.. or maybe Marhez are in. Opposition has KDB

    2. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      If your opponent has no FH, then FH is differential enough imo. Go for popular players.

      1. T88MYE
        • 8 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Template seems like small gains! 2 GWs left 50pts needed!

  12. BantasyFootball
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Made some bad decisions early transfer decision this week, and my team is:

    Ramsdale
    TAA Cancelo Matip Dier Holgate
    Saka Ramsey D. Luiz Son
    Kane

    Subs: Dubravka Pukki Broja Salah*

    After taking -8 in hits! Still have my BB chip left and don't think GW38 is the right time to use (not sure what teams are going to be out and fixtures from some players get hard). Got to get rid of Salah for KDB or Zaha I guess. Also not sure if TAA plays after 120 mins today. What a mess!

  13. Pino
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Watch Salah scoring a hat-trick against Southampton

    1. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Very difficult, since he has groin injury and that may not happen before next season.

    2. NorCal Villan
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Who will get his share of the 9 goals?

  14. Pedersen
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    I got Salah and Dennis i need to find replacement for. Any suggestions?
    I can afford this
    Salah + Dennis -> Kane + 6.9m (Zaha/Madison)

    1. Sheffield Wednesday
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Looks sound

    2. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Y with Zaha

    3. Stranger Mings
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Zaha

    4. Pedersen
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Thanks. Did it with Zaha

  15. Arteta
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Salah, Mount, Eriksen, Werner ➡ De Bruyne, Jota/Diaz, Zaha, Richarlison for - 12. Do you think this too much?
    I honestly think all of them could get 10+ this week.

    1. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      DGW:s are the time to attack. Not certain about selling Mount and Eriksen, but if you are chasing something, you have go for it!

  16. FPL Bargain
    • 10 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    What's the safest or best Everton CB pick?

  17. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Son Kane and KBD SGW players on FH, anyone else worth it?

    1. T88MYE
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Good ole KBD!

    2. Sheffield Wednesday
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      I'll probably have Trossard first sub.

    3. Stranger Mings
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      1 Liverpool too

  18. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    just a guess but u d think leicester main assets more likely to be rotated v chelsea in view of last home v southampton?

  19. T88MYE
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Thoughts..

    Pickford
    Myk Cash Digne
    Son Foden Zaha Diaz
    Kane Vardy Rich

    Leaves 2.5 ITB.. a few differentials, No Villa Attack

  20. Danstoke82
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Surely Salah doesn’t make the Saints match right?

    I’m worried he might feature given his comment that he’s ok (unless he’s talking about the CL final). Even with a cameo he could haul big against our defence

    1. Sheffield Wednesday
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      If City beat West Ham then barring an 8-0 defeat of Southampton, Liverpool can't win the league, so I expect rotation. So it all depends on Sunday's result.

      1. Sheffield Wednesday
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        * I should state it's not impossible for Liverpool to win the league if City win - just unlikely given the current goal difference.

  21. Malkmus
    • 12 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    What priority would you play the following

    A - Trent
    B - Robbo
    C - James
    D - Martinelli

    Ta

    1. T88MYE
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      B C A D

      1. Malkmus
        • 12 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Thanks!

  22. The Frenchie
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Hi guys, I will really appreciate your help, A, B or C?

    A) Who to bench?
    Schmeichel
    TAA / Robertson / Cancelo / James
    Son / Kulusevski / Coutinho / Mount
    Kane / Richarlison (c) / Watkins

    B) (-8)
    Schmeichel
    Robertson / Cancelo / James
    Son / KDB / Kulusevski / Coutinho
    Kane / Richarlison / Watkins

    C) (12) who to bench?
    Schmeichel
    Digne / Mykolenko / Cancelo / James
    Son / KDB / Kulusevski / Coutinho
    Kane / Richarlison / Watkins

    Cheers

  23. Stranger Mings
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Trent over Robo right call? Thanks

  24. Ange Ball
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Whats the news on Salah, Havertz , Robbie?

    Should we be shipping?

  25. nolard
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    A) Kane Maddison
    B) Vardy Coutinho

  26. Morthau
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Start cancelo or mykolenko ?

  27. JohannaAdams10
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Who scores more this week:

    A) Saka
    B) Maddison (minus 4)

  28. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    bring one:

    A jota
    B diaz
    C maddison
    D barnes

  29. jacob1989
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Complete free hit failure.
    Put useless zaha kdb and son over maddison or barnes.
    Went ings over watkins, went double aston villa defense.

    Only vardy returned.

    1. Wolfman180
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Be thankful you got Vardy return