With Fantasy Premier League (FPL) live for 2023/24, we’re welcoming back our team of Hall of Famers and guest writers for the new campaign. Here, FPL Blackbox co-host Az shares his thoughts on Kai Havertz, Brighton assets, Phil Foden and his Gameweek 1 team.
Our writers will be providing regular articles and team reveals throughout the new season, with only Premium Members able to access every single one.
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Less than a week to go until it all begins again. How is everyone feeling?
I feel like I’m getting somewhere with my team but there are a couple of key areas I’m still pondering. Now that I’m back to writing a monthly article for Fantasy Football Scout, why not use this as a chance to try and solve some of my own dilemmas – and let me know what you think of my team in the comments below, of course!
To Have Havertz?
If you’ve been following me at all over pre-season, you’ll know that I’ve been banging a giant Kai Havertz (£7.5m)-sized drum.
Havertz has frustrated me as much as anyone over the last couple of years. I was an early adopter when he first signed, only to watch him struggle under Frank Lampard’s short-lived second season.
I’ve managed to avoid him for times such as the infamous 7-0 rout of Norwich City in which Havertz was the only outfield player to avoid gaining any attacking returns. Instead, I remember rather fondly for a Double Gameweek in which he scored me a mighty 20 points.
Last season, his classification as a forward, and in a Chelsea team struggling to create chances, meant he was an easy avoid. However, this year, he has moved for big money to an Arsenal team that has no shortage of creative talent and will likely play more frequently in his preferred central attacking midfield position. Most interestingly perhaps, he also replaces a player in Granit Xhaka, who despite being known as a red card magnet who popped up with the odd wondergoal, became a steady supplier of FPL points, finishing on 14 attacking returns.
Above: Arsenal midfielders sorted by big chances in 2022/23
Looking at the finishing statistics between Xhaka and Havertz, Xhaka’s goal conversion of 17.5% was impressive, with Havertz much maligned for his lack of prowess in front of goal (he boasted just a 9.9% conversion). However, his shot accuracy of 45% actually beats Xhaka (35%) and his goal involvement of 28% for a struggling Chelsea side actually indicates that he may have been a bit unlucky not to have built on his seven goals.
It seems quite obvious to suggest that anyone playing in this Arsenal team is more than capable of scoring goals, and Mikel Arteta has clearly seen something in Havertz to convince the board to fork out £65m for his services. Arteta has paid big money for a number of players who have raised eyebrows – including Martin Odegaard (£8.5m), Ben White (£5.5m), Aaron Ramsdale (£5.0m) – and also has moulded players like Gabriel Martinelli (£8.0m) and Leandro Trossard (£7.0m) to his system. In fact, other than Fabio Viera (£5.5m), I’m struggling to think of a player who has struggled under his stewardship. If Havertz plays in the role in which he excelled during his time in Germany, and for the national team, I can’t see any reason why he can’t double his output from last season – and getting in and around 15 goals would make him a near-essential pick at just £7.5m.
However, despite being convinced that I’m on to something with Havertz, the Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) injury raises questions about Havertz. Might we see him start the season playing as a false nine, where I have my doubts as to his effectiveness? I also think Jesus dropping deep massively improved Havertz’s prospects, as he looks to ghost into positions as the Brazilian draws defenders out of position. I’m not convinced that even if he does start in his attacking midfield role, whether the likes of Trossard or Eddie Nketiah (£5.5m) are anywhere near as effective at this.
The logical thing to do here is to start with one of Martinelli or Odegaard and wait to see what happens with Havertz. The Community Shield will be absolutely vital in assessing whether I think Havertz is viable to start with – but even if I don’t go with him, expect to see him in my team very soon.
Mitoma or Foden?
- READ MORE: FPL 2023/24 pre-season minutes tracker: Every player, every game
- READ MORE: Get your FPL 2023/24 team rated with the FPL Transfer Planner
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