In his latest article, three-time top 200 finisher Lateriser looks at the squad structure dilemma facing many FPL managers this week.
With fixtures coming thick and fast, one of the big questions for FPL managers is whether they should change their structure to get rid of their third cheap striker and buy Hugo Ekitike (£8.6m) instead.
I am one of the FPL managers swimming in that boat, especially since I have Bryan Mbeumo (£8.2m) in my team with £1.7m in the bank. Do I simply get Bruno Fernandes (£9.3m) immediately or do I alter my structure to get Ekitike first and then jump on Fernandes? For context, I’ve had Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha (£7.9m) for the last few weeks without Bruno, so I’ve been seeing a lot of FPL pain (I say FPL pain, not real pain, because I’m a Manchester United fan).
However, this game we play is about looking forward, not behind.
THE CASE FOR EKITIKE
I’ve admired Ekitike since a while and he seems to be hitting three relatively attractive criteria for me:
- He’s in a rich vein of form playing football like he deserves to be starting for Liverpool. To me, he looks like their most dangerous attacker.
- His shot volume is impressive: he’s had 12 shots, of which 11 were in the box and four were big chances, in the last two games against Brighton and Hove Albion and Leeds United.
- He is at the beginning of a good run of fixtures right now with an away match against Spurs and home fixtures against Wolves, Leeds United and Burnley in the next six Gameweeks.
HOW WILL UNITED DO WITHOUT AMAD + MBEUMO?
While I don’t have Bruno Fernandes right now, and I’m bleeding points (and variance) to the field there, the fact that Amad Diallo (£6.3m) and Mbeumo are departing for AFCON puts a lot of question marks in terms of how Manchester United might play.
I do think that we won’t be as attacking as we’ve been, as they are big losses on the right-hand side. The fact that our next two fixtures are against Aston Villa and Newcastle United also makes me think that I have time to assess how we look before committing to Bruno, if I need to, in Gameweek 19. While I make the ‘being good in open play’ argument, three of the returns Bruno has had in the last two games have been from set pieces. I do think that with Amad and Mbuemo going, our ability to win penalties and free-kicks does reduce significantly.
THE THIAGO QUESTION
Now talking about the structure. With the slight doubt about Igor Thiago (£7.2m), I did wonder if I should hold Marc Guiu (£4.2m) and stick to my five-midfielders-and-two-forwards structure. Thanks to some Scout Notes reassurance, it does look like the Thiago situation might be much ado about nothing – or so we hope.
Now, which way to commit in terms of structure does require a bit of planning, so let’s scan the fixtures for long-term targets.
FORWARDS
- Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m) has an excellent run from Gameweek 18 onwards and is rotation proof in the Christmas fixture crunch period.
- It’s a long shot but someone like Benjamin Sesko (£7.2m) could emerge as an option by the time Gameweek 19 comes around. Manchester United have successive games against Wolves, Leeds United and Burnley.
- Thiago himself still has a decent run of fixtures until Gameweek 23 and hasn’t really done much for us to sell him.
- We’ve already spoken about Ekitike, who is a very attractive option this week onwards – especially with Mohamed Salah (£14.0m) away to AFCON and Cody Gakpo (£7.4m) and Alexander Isak (£10.3m) both having fitness issues.
- Ollie Watkins (£8.5m) could be finding some form and might become an option Gameweek 20 onwards.
MIDFIELDERS
- Chelsea have a ridiculously good run of fixtures from Gameweek 24 onwards and it even looks half-decent from Gameweek 21 onwards, once they finish their trip to the Etihad. Perhaps Cole Palmer (£10.3m) gets fitter by the time these fixtures emerge; we know him historically to be a flat-track bully.
- Manchester United have a good run from Gameweek 19 onwards and both Bruno Fernandes and Matheus Cunha should be on everyone’s radar.
- Kevin Schade (£7.0m) might emerge as a cheap option in midfield, especially if Keith Andrews plays the 3-5-2.
- We’ve already spoken about Liverpool’s fixtures and whoever plays as the ‘10’ and on the right side for Liverpool become interesting options. I have both Florian Wirtz (£8.0m) and Dominik Szoboszlai (£6.7m) on my radar.
- Morgan Rogers (£7.1m) is in a rich vein of form and Aston Villa have a decent run of games from Gameweek 20 onwards.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Looking at the above, Rogers, Bruno and Cunha emerge as the prime candidates to replace Mbeumo in the midfield, but none of them are immediately as attractive as Ekitike, given the short-term fixtures.
The problem with shifting structures is that it requires spending an extra transfer, as you can’t keep buying bottom-price attackers and spending extra transfers for the same.
Bowen is a strong back-up option for the striker pool if Thiago or Ekitike don’t do the business. I’m currently leaning towards shifting Guiu to Ekitike, funded by a downgrade from Mbeumo to Freddie Potts (£4.4m) but still wondering whether it is worth committing the extra transfer.
If I had confirmed news that Thiago was injured, I’d probably sell him for Ekitike and buy a mid-priced midfield punt for Mbeumo without shifting structure. We’ll see where we land on Saturday but I hope this article has given you enough food for thougtht.
Below is my team for your reference.
