The Burning Question – Do we sell or keep Kane before Gameweek 22

During this most wonderful time of the year, we’re frequently told that it is better to give than to receive.

So in the spirit of Christmas, the first in a series of Burning Questions asks whether it’s time to give Harry Kane the elbow, or continue to receive meagre points – albeit with the potential for a whole lot more – from the out of sorts Spurs talisman.

To consider this conundrum, we’ve brought together a panel of heavy-hitting Fantasy managers to team up with our regular Fantasy Football Scout contributors.

Last season’s top two in Fantasy Premier League, Ben Crabtree and Uwais Ahmed, are joined by the current leaders of both our “live” and “career” Hall of Fame – Jay Egersdorff and Peter Kouwenberg – to study the issue.

To counter balance their expertise, this week our very own Mark takes his turn to debate our first festive Burning Question – do we sell or keep Harry Kane before Gameweek 22?

Jay Says…

For me it’s a short-term keep.

Harry Kane faces Stoke City and Brighton in quick succession – and both at home.

Likewise, he has no Champions League duties to worry about midweek as Spurs are though as group winners already and I’d expect Mauricio Pochettino to rest a number of key players.

They desperately need to get back on track in the league; their title bid is all but gone while the Champions League places are slowly drifting away too.

Yes, they’ve had a rocky patch, but I’m expecting Spurs to return to the mean.

Look at Everton a fortnight ago – people were backing them for a relegation battle, but two wins inside a week has seen them back in mid-table, which is a more accurate reflection of their default status.

Two good home matches in a week is a similar opportunity for Spurs, and I see them earning maximum points, with Kane a key architect.

As regards the Double Gameweek 22, I think it would be wise to have a free transfer carried over from Gameweek 16 or 17.

This would allow a Kane downgrade ahead of Man City and then Burnley away – two fixtures where, if he’s still off form, you’d expect long odds for him to regain his scoring streak against two mean defences.

The second free transfer would enable you to redistribute the money freed up by selling Kane as another forward might emerge by then.

It’s fair to say that Alvaro Morata is currently the only nailed-on big hitter and he’s sat on four yellows – another argument for the idea of a short-term Kane ‘wait and see’ option.

Peter Says…

Just over a third of us have blindly gone from week to week increasingly desperate that Spurs’ own ’Arry Kane must be about to rediscover the form which has brought him matching Premier League Golden Boots.

And week after week, the naked truth has been that Kane – and Spurs – are more pinchbeck than prolific this season.

Captaincy options aside, this game is about finding value.

At 12.8, the striker is the FPL Goliath for price, yet 17 players are within ten points of him (and many ahead of Kane’s 82), while Mohamed Salah is disappearing over the horizon with a 31-point advantage.

Significantly for Kane’s owners, that collection includes Pascal Großs (6.0), Richarlison (6.6) and Aaron Ramsey (7.2).

Put bluntly, the value now lies in midfield and defence, and the output of the premium strikers no longer justifies the heavy investment required.

For me, Kane will probably be handed his P45 before Spurs visit the Etihad in Gameweek 18.

No doubt he’ll score before returning to my squad for that alluring Double Gameweek 22, but so will many other options who cost half Kane’s fee and will allow me to strengthen all round for the hectic Christmas period.

Ben Says…

Given the double in Gameweek 22, where he should be essential (we’ll see), transferring him out means using two free transfers out of the next seven on one player.

In fact, it might work out at more than two transfers as that 12-something million gets spread around the team: bye bye Elliot, hello De Gea; bye bye Loftus-Cheek, hello Ramsey etc.

Factor in the potential points Kane can get against Stoke City, Brighton and Southampton and it’s a simple decision to keep him for most managers.

However, if you want to do better than most managers, could a Kane sacrifice be rewarded by the FPL gods with differential captain points and multiple player upgrades?

I actually think yes, there will be a few ways to make ditching more profitable than keeping. It’s just extremely risky and difficult to find them.

There are against the grain, ahead of the curve and differential decisions to make that fly you up the rankings, but for me this isn’t one of them.

Selling is a high risk, low probability move. Captain Kane against Stoke for me, because definitely this time he’s definitely “due”.

Uwais Says…

If you look at the fixtures in isolation from now until Double Gameweek 22, you would say that there are some real opportunities for Kane to fire – and fire big.

However, we are now approaching the halfway mark of the season, and I believe that it is proving increasingly difficult to justify his selection until those double fixtures.

He sits second only to Alvaro Morata in the forward standings, but the fact is that given his relatively pedestrian returns of late, his price tag is just too restrictive when considering what else that money could do with our squads.

We now have enough of a sample size from Spurs’ performances so far this season, and the fact is that they are not playing with the same attacking verve and cohesion as we have seen in recent years.

Having watched them closely recently, they seem to be playing safe and what I call ‘ball to feet’ football and Kane does not look as threatening as in previous seasons.

For his price tag of 12.8, you would expect consistent points and occasionally explosive returns.

Given the fact that other premium players such as Hazard, Coutinho, Firmino and Sanchez are now showing signs of life and we also have consistent performers in Salah and De Bruyne to turn to, the fact is that those funds are probably best placed elsewhere at present.

Until Gameweek 22, that is!

Mark Says…

It seems all kinds of wrong to lose faith in Kane.

But such a view is part of my own DNA. While somewhat “maverick” and aggressive as a Fantasy manager, I’m also known to cling to the comfort of FPL’s “top asset”, whoever that might be. Whether it’s Robin van Persie or Sergio Aguero, historically, I’m all over them.

So I’m a Kane zealot, deciding to sacrifice him feels like a wrench and against my instincts.

I can’t deny that I’m tempted, and that the decision to keep him could well scupper my season.

Typically, I turn to statistics to justify my viewpoints and the same applies here.

As we mentioned in The Digest earlier today, after 15 Gameweeks Kane has scored goals at exactly the same rate at the same point in his 29-goal Golden Boot season.

However, this season he’s fired shots at double the frequency (15.2 minutes vs 30.4 minutes) and, for all the talk on the quality of his shots, he’s had 12 big chances to last season’s seven at this stage.

That screams for me to sit tight and wait for Kane’s natural goalscoring instincts to kick back in.

So that’s what I’ll do, perhaps until Gameweek 21 when, if I can somehow manoeuvre to have two free transfers, I’ll be shipping him out temporarily.

If there was a compelling straight swap, I might just reconsider for his tougher short-term fixtures. However, selling him on and redistributing the funds over my squad – which is surely a necessity – doesn’t appeal when I know I’ll want and need him back.