Lukaku back on the FPL radar as Holebas proves excellent value

The final set of Scout Notes from Gameweek 4 analyses the matches at Turf Moor and Vicarage Road from yesterday afternoon.

Romelu Lukaku reminded us of his somewhat overlooked Fantasy appeal with two goals in Manchester United’s victory over Burnley, while Jose Holebas delivered two more assists as Watford kept up their 100% record with a 2-1 win over Spurs.

Burnley 0-2 Manchester United

• Goals: Romelu Lukaku x2 (£11.0m)
• Assists: Alexis Sanchez (£10.2m)

As ignored in the early part of this season as he was backed at the beginning of 2017/18, Romelu Lukaku (£11.0m) delivered his first Premier League brace in over a year as Manchester United ran out 2-0 winners at Turf Moor.

Lukaku was an all-round menace in the United attack and could quite easily have added to his two-goal tally, being denied by Joe Hart (£4.5m) from point-blank range in the first half before poking wide after dribbling past the Burnley goalkeeper in the latter stages of the match.

The Belgian’s two goals were Lukaku at his best, creating space behind Ben Mee (£5.0m) to nod in Alexis Sanchez‘s (£10.2m) superb cross before pouncing on Jesse Lingard‘s (£6.8m) twice-deflected shot to double United’s lead.

No Premier League forward had more shots on target or penalty box touches than Lukaku this weekend and the former Everton striker trails only Callum Wilson (£6.2m) in “big chances” over the course of the season.

The caveat has to be that United and Lukaku caught Burnley at the best possible time, less than 72 hours after the Clarets’ Europa League play-off match with Olympiakos and with Sean Dyche’s backline in something of a dip in form: Burnley have conceded as many goals (nine) in the first four league fixtures of this season than they did after 12 matches of 2017/18.

Owned by almost the same number of Fantasy Premier League managers before kick-off as Marcus Rashford (£6.8m) – both players sitting in 6.8% of FPL squads – only Gabriel Jesus (£10.4m) was a less popular premium forward pick than Lukaku at the Gameweek 4 deadline.

While it’s a little early to exaggerate Lukaku’s Fantasy appeal, his situation is one to monitor. With Sergio Aguero (£11.3m) perhaps a mild, medium-term rotation risk when the UEFA Champions League gets into full swing and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£10.9m) posting some so-so underlying attacking statistics, Lukaku is a viable attacking alternative (or addition) in the £11.0m price bracket – particularly as he is one of the more “nailed” picks up front.

Whether many Fantasy budgets will stretch to Lukaku’s inclusion, given the appealing premium options available in other positions, is another matter.

Elsewhere, Jesse Lingard (£6.8m) caught the eye alongside Lukaku and Sanchez in the three-man United attack. Starting wide-right but often drifting into central positions to feed off Lukaku, Lingard twice curled wide from the edge of the box and was a tad unfortunate not to claim an assist for the Belgian’s second goal. Lingard was also denied by a James Tarkowski (£5.0m) block from close range in the first half as United’s front three caused the Clarets’ defence a plethora of problems.

Given the current mid-price midfielder “crisis” (Richarlison suspended, Theo Walcott possibly injured, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Pedro now clear rotation risks), Lingard’s name can perhaps be added to the conversation despite the England man failing to record an attacking return this season.

That Rashford will now be suspended for two league matches after his second-half dismissal diminishes Lingard’s competition on the right flank, too.

Luke Shaw (£5.1m) was involved in both United goals, meanwhile, and continued to impress in attack as the Red Devils recorded their first clean sheet of the season. The United left-back had another three attempts on goal yesterday and now trails only Marcos Alonso (£6.8m) in terms of shots recorded by defenders in 2018/19.

Paul Pogba’s (£8.2m) miss from the penalty spot could dent the Frenchman’s future Fantasy appeal, with plenty of takers – Lukaku and Sanchez the obvious candidates – in line to oust the United midfielder from spot-kick duties. Pogba, indeed, had previously said that he didn’t have the monopoly on penalties in Gameweek 1.

Victor Lindelof (£4.9m) came back into the side at the expense of the injured Phil Jones (£5.2m) and Mourinho was full of praise for the cut-price Swede, among others:

The pace with the ball and the organisation without the ball [was very good]. Also the tactical approach, the concentration of a crucial triangle – Fellaini, Lindelof and Smalling – the creativity in midfield and then the intensity moving the ball.

And in the last 10/15 minutes even when we played at less speed and at less intensity for the counter-attack I thought the performance was very good.

Mourinho’s words after the match suggested he might be loath to change the personnel and system for the trip to Watford in Gameweek 5:

Everything [pleased me]. The first 10 minutes were the mirror of the game. So fast, so creative, even I can say so beautiful, but we lost three chances in the first 10 minutes and I think that was the mirror of the game.

We managed to score two goals which was enough to win, but it shouldn’t just be two, it should be three, four, five, six. We should have scored before we scored the goals and we should have scored the penalty that would kill the game and also the best chances after the penalty.

Even with 10 men, the team was really strong in every aspect of the game.

Mourinho also had praise for his players that didn’t feature, dousing any inevitable media speculation about fallings-out with his omitted squad members – one of which was Fred (£5.8m):

This was one of the weeks as a manager where it felt most heartbreaking with the decisions that I made, to leave Andreas Pereira and Matteo Darmian at home, to leave [Juan] Mata and Scott [McTominay] in the stands and also to leave on the bench with not one minute on the pitch [Anthony] Martial, Ashley Young, the goalkeeper and everyone that didn’t play. It was really heartbreaking because the week was fantastic and every player was part of this game.

For Burnley, Sean Dyche changed his Premier League starting XI for the first time this season, with rotation in the full-back department: Charlie Taylor (£4.5m) and Phil Bardsley (£4.4m) replacing Stephen Ward (£4.9m) and Matthew Lowton (£4.9m).

An injury to Johann Berg Gudmundsson (£5.9m) also forced Dyche’s hand, with teenager Dwight McNeil getting a start on the left flank.

That Hart was the Clarets’ best player said much about the hosts’ performance, with Burnley’s previously impressive defence a cause for concern going into four enticing-looking fixtures after the international break: no Premier League side has conceded as many attempts on goal or shots on target as Dyche’s side this season.

Not one of Burnley’s forwards has delivered an attacking return in 2018/19 either, with substitute Sam Vokes‘ (£5.4m) aerial threat the only real problem that David de Gea (£5.9m) faced all match.

Having played two matches a week for the last month, the international break at least gives Dyche the opportunity to regroup with his side ahead of those aforementioned fixtures against Wolves, Bournemouth, Cardiff City and Huddersfield Town.

Speaking after the match, Dyche said:

We’re at game 10 already, with 16 or 17 outfield players for most of that period. That’s been a challenge – albeit a good one, and generally we haven’t gone too far away from, what we are about.

Now we’ll reboot and restart. We have a couple of weeks, when a few of the players will go away on international duty, but for the rest they can, at last, take a breather and work out what’s been going on.

The players are close to something, but we have to tidy up at both ends.

Burnley XI (4-5-1): Hart; Bardsley, Mee, Tarkowski, Taylor; Lennon, Cork, Westwood, McNeil (Barnes 80′), Hendrick (Vokes 57′); Wood (Vydra 83′)

Manchester United XI (4-3-3): De Gea; Valencia, Smalling, Lindelof, Shaw; Fellaini, Matic, Pogba (Bailly 90′); Sanchez (Rashford 61′), Lingard (Herrera 75′); Lukaku

Watford 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur

• Goals: Craig Cathcart (£4.5m), Troy Deeney (£6.0m) | Abdoulaye Doucoure (£6.0m) own-goal
• Assists: Jose Holebas x2 (£4.7m) | Lucas Moura (£7.2m)

It’s four wins from four for Watford, as Jose Holebas (£4.7m) registered another two assists for the Hornets in a hard-fought victory over Spurs on Sunday.

No FPL defender has delivered more successful crosses or created more chances this season than Holebas, who is not without form: the Greek left-back also attempted more crosses than anyone in his position in 2017/18.

Holebas has now been involved in five of Watford’s nine goals this season and is currently providing better value than any other player in FPL, returning 7.2 points per million spent.

Troy Deeney (£6.0m) grabbed his second goal of the season to win the match for Watford and the Hornets’ captain currently has the edge over strike partner Andre Gray (£6.0m) in terms of Fantasy appeal: no player on show at Vicarage Road yesterday had more penalty box touches than Deeney, who has had more goal attempts, shots on target and big chances than Gray during this campaign.

Watford were unchanged for the fourth league match running and Deeney’s starting spot seems safe in this 4-4-2 (having shared pitch-time with Gray last season), with Gracia generous in his praise of the 29-year-old forward:

He is the captain, he is the spirit. You can see he is always trying to be the example and trying to help everybody. Today he has been very important, not only scoring a goal but working hard for a lot of minutes. I arrived in January and from the first day he is the same, he doesn’t change. He wants to win, he works a lot and he tries to be a good example for the rest of the players.

Craig Cathcart (£4.5m) was the other beneficiary of Holebas’ pinpoint crosses, nodding in his first Premier League goal since the 2015/16 season.

Nathaniel Chalobah (£4.5m) returned from injury as a second-half substitute, meanwhile.

Spurs can perhaps consider themselves unfortunate not to leave Vicarage Road with a point, having carved out a couple of good opportunities: Dele Alli (£9.1m) looping a header just wide of goal and Harry Kane (£12.5m) nodding over from six yards out.

Lucas Moura (£7.2m) was lively in attack alongside Kane as Mauricio Pochettino rolled out a 3-5-2, and it was the Brazilian whose cross it was that Abdoulaye Doucoure (£6.0m) turned past his own goalkeeper for the game’s opening goal.

Moura now trails only Sadio Mane (£9.9m) for FPL points among midfielders and his appeal is further increased in the wing-back system that Pochettino has deployed twice already this season: Moura’s average position yesterday was the furthest forward of any Spurs player, with Kane yet again frustrating his FPL owners by dropping deep.

Whether a three-man defence is something Pochettino continues with going forward is another matter, given the defeat yesterday and the fact that he abandoned the system in the win over Fulham with the score at 1-1.

Son Heung-min (£8.3m) will also return to the club after the international break, while Eric Lamela (£6.5m) adds competition to the attacking midfield places when fit. On current form, of course, Moura’s starting spot is his to lose.

Back-to-back goals in Gameweeks 2 and 3 increased interest in Kane, meanwhile, but it should be noted that the England striker has only had half the amount of shots on goal that Sergio Aguero has attempted this season. In mitigation, though, Kane has played fewer home matches this season (one) than any of his premium forward rivals.

After successive double-digit returns, Kieran Trippier (£6.1m) blanked at Vicarage Road but his underlying statistics hint at further attacking joy in the future: no player in this match yesterday delivered as many crosses as Trippier, who has now sent over more deliveries than any other FPL defender this season. Trippier also created the game’s only “big chance” for Kane.

Pochettino was fairly condemning of his troops immediately after the match:

OK, we play football. But be aggressive. In the second half, we score then many things happen.

It’s about energy and communication. It’s about being strong and showing character and mentality.

So painful. Often you play like this and win. It’s a very good wake-up call for everyone to say, ‘Come on, we need to compete’.

We need to show we are contenders by winning. The only way to win is to give your best.

Michel Vorm (£4.9m) came in for the injured Hugo Lloris (£5.5m) in this match, but the French goalkeeper’s injury is not thought to be too serious and Pochettino is hopeful of his return for the visit of Liverpool in Gameweek 5.

Watford XI (4-4-2): Foster; Janmaat, Cathcart, Kabasele, Holebas; Hughes (Chalobah 85′), Doucoure, Capoue, Pereyra (Mariappa 90′); Gray (Success 70′), Deeney

Tottenham XI (3-5-2): Vorm; Alderweireld (Llorente 81′), Sanchez, Vertonghen; Trippier, Eriksen, Dembele (Winks 86′), Alli, Davies (Rose 89′); Moura, Kane