Pro Pundits - Seb

How to use effective ownership to make differential FPL decisions

As we enter crunch time in the Fantasy Premier League season, many will be turning to differentials to catapult them up the ranks whilst others are closely monitoring ownership in attempt to maintain that hard-earned lead. But what is ownership and how can we best take advantage of differentials?

Let us take a look (for those well versed in these concepts, feel free to skip to the Strategies section).

Ownership

Ownership itself, somewhat obviously, is the percentage of all managers in the game that own that player. This is represented as ‘TSB’ or ‘Teams Selected By %’ on the official site. At the time of writing, Bruno Fernandes (£11.6m)is currently the top of this metric, with 57.4%, followed by Son Heung-min (£9.5m) and Patrick Bamford (£6.8m) on 54.4% and 52% respectively. 

There are even players with 0.0% ownership, of which one, Matt Phillips (£5.1m) scored and received two bonus points in Gameweek 22. Whilst TSB does not extend to enough decimal places for us to know for sure, I find it mildly entertaining that those nine points might have been received by absolutely no one.

The most immediate use of ownership is to help us decide how much impact a certain player returning (or not returning) points will have on our rank. For example, if Fernandes scores 10 points this weekend and you do not own him, that is a lot of other managers earning points that you are not. In isolation, this would likely lead to a fall in rank. But it is not quite as simple as that, so we need to go deeper.

Effective Ownership

Which chips are FPL managers using for Double Gameweek 26?

Effective ownership is ownership with a few modifications. These modifications take into account how many of a player’s owners started that player, how many captained him and how many even Triple Captained him. 

In this way it can model the actual points a player brought their owners in that week. It does this by simply summing the aforementioned modifications to produce an effective total.

In this way, effective ownership can exceed 100%, such as when 75% of managers own a player and 50% captain him, for a total of 125%. When this number starts exceeding 100%, you need to be doing more than simply owning the player to gain a rank rise from their performance. 

However, ownership in this scenario still provides some level of insurance against a popular pick, bringing you at least some of those points, potentially softening the blow. We would want our alternative picks to be making up the ground here.

Effective ownership gives a more accurate picture than pure ownership over what affect a player returning points will have on your rank. That same Fernandes 10 point return is effectively 20 points if everyone who owned him captained him whilst you do not own him at all.

However, this impact is not equal across the board. Effective ownership will treat you differently at different ranks. Onto ownership within a certain band of rank we go.

Ownership and Effective Ownership in Top 10k

FPL players made to sweat as Pep Guardiola hints at changes ahead of DGW19

As the title suggests, this metric simply takes ownership and effective ownership and applies them to the current top 10k. In this way, it is only the ownership of that player within the top 10k managers that is considered. This is useful for identifying what needs to happen for you to move rank within a certain boundary, or for comparing yourself to managers of others ranks.

There are other similar breakdowns available for various rank levels, such as 100k and 1k, but this is the one we see used most often given its psychological and historical significance as an indicator of ‘successful’ Fantasy Premier League management.

Differentials

Blank Gameweek 18 and Double Gameweek 19: The key player and team stats

At Fantasy Football Scout, we often define a differential as a player that is owned by fewer than 5% of managers. Your own definition may vary based on what you are trying to achieve; ownership inside the top 10k, ownership in your mini-league, etc. However, most will agree that anything above 10% overall ownership is not classed as a differential.

Personally, I have some caveats on what I consider to be a useful differential and what is simply a player with low ownership. Time to look at some strategies.

Strategies

If we had perfect knowledge of the points each player would score before it happened, there would be absolutely no need for any of this. You would simply choose the players that score the most and win. After all, it does not matter if you captain a 60% owned player or a 1% owned player if they both score 10 points. The points gain and thus the rank change is identical. Likewise, your selection has failed if your overall team score is beaten by everyone else, no matter where those points came from.

In its simplest form, the reason these concepts become relevant is because we do not have perfect knowledge, and while we can and do make decent points predictions, we need to apply a layer of risk and reward to this. FPL is a game of relative predictive decisions.

A highly-owned player is generally considered ‘safer’ to own as you will move with the crowd no matter what happens. A differential is generally considered ‘riskier’ to own as you are moving against the crowd. All else being equal, a differential will see your rank move amplified based on if they scored well or poorly compared to higher owned assets, with a non-differential producing the opposite effect.

It is in this way that we use ownership, effective ownership and differentials to help guide our decisions. However, I would always advocate first deciding which player(s) you think are going to score the most outright. 

If you have a good gauge on this, and get it right, the rest barely matters. Ownership should only come into play as a tie breaker between two players that we believe will score very similarly. At this point we can then decide whether a safer or riskier approach better suits our own personal circumstances.

Joe of Scoutcast fame quotes a “sword” and “shield” strategy. This defines players as an aggressive move intended to climb ranks (swords) or a defensive move intended to protect against rank drops (shields). 

This can work well in scenarios where we can clearly identify the spread of ownership between players, such as a mini-league. Say you are in second place, you could protect your position from those chasing by ensuring that you have a core of players that each of your competitors owns (shields), meaning you all receive equal points in those positions, whilst also opting to bring in a few players that the manager in first place does not own (swords) in order to attempt to gain a positive differential over them in the form of earning points they do not have access to. Of course, this only works if your team overall still outscores the others.

Differentials do not operate in isolation, however. There may be a scenario where Fernandes, Mohamed Salah (£12.6m) and Kevin De Bruyne (£11.8m) are all individually owned by 30% of managers, but only 3% of managers own all three at once. In this way, we can differentiate our team whilst technically not actually differentiating the players within that team.

Cancelo finally delivers big haul as Gündogan shines in KDB's absence 17

Another move that can pay dividends is doubling or tripling-up on a certain team, such as we have seen with Manchester City recently. Many managers have opted to own the maximum of three City assets, in order to maximise the returns from arguably the best team in the league. 

We can take this one step further by owning two or three players from the same position in that team, such as those that opted to make their three Manchester City players three defenders in Joao Cancelo (£6.2m), Ruben Dias (£6.1m) and John Stones (£5.2m). 

While many have identified the Citizens as the strongest defence in the league, most will still look to diversify and ‘spread the risk’ between defenders from several teams. By opting for this strategy we are able to make gains on those more cautious managers. 

After all, if we believe City defenders will score the most points, we should own as many as possible. There will be weeks of boom and weeks of bust, while those other managers achieve more consistent returns, but in the end we will be aiming to have accumulated more points, no matter which weeks they came in.

One caveat here is that we can only own three players from a single team, so if you are looking to bring in Ilkay Gundogan (£6.2m) or Kevin De Bruyne any time soon, owning three of their defensive colleagues could make that a headache worth avoiding. The famous SAS, or Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge, is another good example of this from days of Liverpool-past.

A further strategy centred around focusing on a single team is that of hedging against a highly-owned player with a lesser-owned differential. This is often best combined with targeting the cheaper of the two, allowing the extra funds to be funnelled elsewhere, or doubling up away from that popular player. 

An example of this is the move I made this week, bringing in Gareth Bale (£9.5m) to complement Son as a hedge against Harry Kane (£11.2m). This also allows me to retain the mid-priced frontline of Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.8m), Patrick Bamford (£6.8m) and Ollie Watkins (£6.6m), with an eye on Michail Antonio (£6.5m) (who has a mins/xGI of 116, the best in the league amongst regular starters, and some strong fixtures on the horizon), whilst still exposing myself to a reinvigorated Spurs attack.

Let us truly define what we want from a differential. As we have identified above, low ownership is not enough on its own. We need that player to outscore the more highly owned alternatives for the differential to actually pay off. Therefore, I personally pay very little attention to ownership itself and prefer to look for changing circumstances that may indicate I can steal an edge before others identify the same opportunity.

Rüdiger forcing way into Chelsea picture ahead of appealing fixtures

Take Thomas Tuchel being appointed Chelsea manager, gifting us Antonio Rudiger (£4.6m); the fixture swings around Gameweeks 31 to 33, which sees, amongst others, Leeds United transition from Manchester City (away), Liverpool (home) and Manchester United (home) to Brighton (away), Tottenham (home), Burnley (away), Southampton (away) and West Brom (home); or the underlying stats that identified Brighton as a solid defensive unit well before they actually started achieving defensive returns.

Ultimately, the best move is to pick the players that we believe are going to score the most points before anyone else does. However, seeing as that is an imperfect game, we can apply a little situation dependent strategy. Through the use of differentials, defined not by ownership but by situation, that we have identified ahead of the crowd and tailored to our own specific needs, we can gain an edge and close out that mini-league win or cement our final rank.

Looking to gamble it all on that first top 10k finish? Differentiate yourself from the pack, but do not do it for the sake of it, do it with reasonable and researched picks that have a change of fortunes on the horizon or a statistical shift that no one else has noticed yet.

GET IN-GAME DATA AT LIVE FPL

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302 Comments Post a Comment
  1. DagheMunegu
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Who is the most nailed between
    A. White
    B. Veltman
    C. Burn

    1. Fantasydreamer
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      White but the other two should be ok a little longer as well

  2. Ginkapo FPL
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Just own the players who score the most points. This is all just a meaningless distraction.

    Does ownership earn points? No

    1. Ginkapo FPL
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Swords and shields are just terms. There is no suggested ratio of swords to shields. Its a glorified terminology for "I want this player", "they will make a good sword/shield".

      1. The Knights Template
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        I prefer jousting sticks.

    2. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I saw a lad last week who had Kate as captain but didn't want loads of points for his captain as he didn't TC him... madness

      1. kennethrhcp
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Kane

      2. Tango74
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        People on here don’t want there vice captain to do well or bench to do well which I think is mad too

    3. fusen
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Well the concept behind it is factual.

      You factually lose ranks of a player you own has a higher than 100% EO and you didn't captain them.

      You can ignore it if you don't think it'll help you but it is definitely a valid concept that will determine your rank. So for people that are interested in the more stats side of the game then it makes perfect sense to pay attention to it.

      1. Tango74
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        That would mean you want every player to do bad that is not in you first 11

        1. diesel001
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Correct.

        2. SADIO SANÉ
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          what the.....

      2. Ginkapo FPL
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Utter nonsense.

        If you dont own a highly owned player, then there is another player you do own.

        Your rank changes depending on your points, not on an individual player.

        1. diesel001
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Disagree. Your rank changes relative to the number of points you score compared to everyone else. Each individual player contributes to your rank movement.

          The absolute game is to score as many points as possible.
          But the relative game is to beat everyone else.

          Just like in athletics. You don't always need to run a fast time (e.g WR or CR) to win a race. You just need to beat everyone else in the race.

          1. Ginkapo FPL
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            There are 7M in the race. Run your PB

            1. g40steve
              • 6 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              8m

    4. SADIO SANÉ
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I think it's a valid 'concept' - if a large amount of people own a player for a set period who then goes on to blank 3/4 times in a row then having a 'differential' in his place can see huge rank gains

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Or to put it another way

        Owning players who scores points is good.

        1. SADIO SANÉ
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          can you tell me who will score points next weekend please? got a FT that may be going to waste

          1. Ginkapo FPL
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Quit the game if you arent willing to work that out. Seriously?

            This is my point. Everyone is so distracted by EO that they forget to look at upcoming games and hypothesise on the outcomes, to research where the points are likely to come from.

            1. SADIO SANÉ
              • 9 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              oh, you seemed to know who will score points before they do so - my bad 😆

              1. Studs Up
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 4 Years
                3 years, 7 months ago

                kinda offside comment dont u think

                1. Ginkapo FPL
                  • 13 Years
                  3 years, 7 months ago

                  I'm used to it.

                  They are more interested in point scoring in their posts than their FPL teams.

                2. SADIO SANÉ
                  • 9 Years
                  3 years, 7 months ago

                  kinda offside? wow, so so very sensitive

                  1. Studs Up
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 4 Years
                    3 years, 7 months ago

                    not at all, just find your replies to the convo sarcastic...thats all

                    1. SADIO SANÉ
                      • 9 Years
                      3 years, 7 months ago

                      that's because they were sarcastic haha

            2. Rassi
              • 10 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              This is true.

    5. diesel001
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      The article explains why EO is important:

      "In its simplest form, the reason these concepts become relevant is because we do not have perfect knowledge, and while we can and do make decent points predictions, we need to apply a layer of risk and reward to this. FPL is a game of relative predictive decisions."

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        "Ultimately, the best move is to pick the players that we believe are going to score the most points before anyone else does. However, seeing as that is an imperfect game, we can apply a little situation dependent strategy. Through the use of differentials, defined not by ownership but by situation, that we have identified ahead of the crowd and tailored to our own specific needs, we can gain an edge and close out that mini-league win or cement our final rank."

        In the words of the article itself. Dont use ownership to judge your transfer targets

        1. jason_ni
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          I think your point lies somewhere in the middle.

          For me I don't care about eo when I pick players, I pick players who I think will do well.( if they happen to be high eo, so be it)

          If I was concerned about eo, I would have captained gundo this gw but I didn't.

          Now in saying this, off course the points that players I don't own will have a negative on my gw once it starts, so personally, as a gundo owner and non capper, as long as my capt pick beats gundo I'm happy enough, and if gundo blanks then there is a higher chance of rank gain for me personally.

          1. Ginkapo FPL
            • 13 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            I dont personally enjoy it but I can see why some review EO after the gameweek deadline to see how they stand against others.

            1. jason_ni
              • 8 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              Yea, removes some of the fun if you can't enjoy a haul just because his eo is over 100!

              Add in fact I'm a man utd fan, and ill be happy enough for gundo and city in general to have a quiet 1st game!

    6. Mr. O'Connell
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Agree. I'm having a pretty average season and with my wildcard/free hit still in my back pocket, I can use EO to throw caution to the wind and pick a ton of differentials. But this will purely be for the sake of it, not because I think they will score the most points (although it's not like picking the players I think will score the most points is working for me anyway). This is argued against at the end of the article, but I think this is the only effective use of EO data.

    7. IfYouTinkerYou'llHaveA…
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      In the case of 50/50 choices it’s always going to come down to ownership and differentials? Whether it’s rank or mini league hopes. I just played my wildcard, checked the teams above me in mini league and went for a handful of players like bale, mount and iheanacho. All of them fit into the sword analogy perfectly, why is it a nonsense?

      1. IfYouTinkerYou'llHaveA…
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        If it fails then I’ll slide but rank of 177k or rank of 500k makes no difference to me, why pick the safe bets and sit at 177k when you can pick low owned players and shoot for top 100k

    8. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      There's a balance. EO% should not guide your picks. However, it does let you know what degree of risk you're taking on.

      I don't let it guide who I want. If I sniff a good value pick I'll buy him regardless if he's 40% or 2% owned.

      It's better if he's 2% owned ofc to gain rank but that won't make me pick him over a player that I feel is better.

  3. McSauce
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Saucy Sunday incoming!

  4. Athletico Underachieving
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Speaking of differentials, didn’t see the Villa game but B Traore is now flagged. Anyone see what happened?

    1. Ch0udini
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Overstretched/twisted his leg. Didn't look to serious, but you never know.

  5. The Rumour Mill
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Anyone here use football index? Just read about the market crash, I'd be absolutely livid if I played that. I think they were sponsoring the scoutcast for a bit but I think that's been unsurprisingly quietly dropped!

    1. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Saw a few lads discuss it yesterday but I never got into it so skipped past

    2. Captain_Shirokov
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      looked like the dodgiest thing of all time from the outset

      not sure why people would have been enticed to use it

      1. The Rumour Mill
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah didn't appeal to me either. The ffs partnership and it being mentioned on other pods did seem to lend it credibility but guess that was smoke and mirrors.

      2. Reacher
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        This

    3. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Always seemed dodge to me. Avoid.

    4. Flair
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      People have invested big money into it, feel for them though the warning signs were there and many chose to ignore it - or worse, abuse the people giving the warnings.

      1. The Rumour Mill
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah it will be interesting to see how this shakes out. Seen the athletic are doing a deep dive into what's gone on which should uncover more details. Hope the money can be recovered somehow.

        1. The Tinkerman
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          It’s uninsured, even if the company goes under they won’t be able to recover what was invested.

          1. The Rumour Mill
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Dearie me.

            1. The Tinkerman
              • 9 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              The cash balance (not invested in player “shares”) has a low level of insurance, but if you deposited money they spent it on “shares”, then there is zero protection.

    5. Ginkapo FPL
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      FFS still have a partnership

    6. Rash
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I'm down over 80% absolutely furious

      1. The Rumour Mill
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Sorry to hear that

        1. The Rumour Mill
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Any idea what will happen?

          1. Rash
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            I am hoping that they are taken to a tribunal and people like myself can claim our money back but might be wishful thinking.

        2. Rash
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          How they can manipulate sancho price of nearly £15 a share to 98p in less than a year is criminal!

          1. The Rumour Mill
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Literally criminal. Are they subject to regulation or can they just do as they want with the share price? I'd assume not but it all seems so dodgy that nothing is off the table from what I'm reading

            1. Rash
              • 7 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              I am not sure tbh but they have suspended people commenting on their tweets, prevents us all rallying together.

              1. The Tinkerman
                • 9 Years
                3 years, 7 months ago

                Those affected need to organise some sort of social media page/group IMO, mass complaints to the regulator, try to force some action

            2. Ginkapo FPL
              • 13 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              Its sitting under gambling regulations and not financial market regulations. The rules are much less stringent and currently being reviewed to prevent this.

              1. The Rumour Mill
                • 7 Years
                3 years, 7 months ago

                I see. I guess this is what makes this such an interesting, but also terrible, case

          2. The Tinkerman
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            It certainly looks like a product that should be legislated against. There will be new versions of this pop up in other industries/with different themes if it isn’t banned.

      2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Sorry to hear that Rash

        If it’s any consolation I’m sure FFS made a lot of money from the sponsorship deal so at least there’s that, every cloud etc

        1. Rash
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Well they won't be getogmy membership money next season at least.

          1. Rash
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Getting my*

    7. The Tinkerman
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      This is the exact situation that was warned about months ago. This type of gambling product will hopefully be banned soon.

      1. The Rumour Mill
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Staggering level of manual market manipulation. Hopefully see some jail time for the perpetrators

        1. The Tinkerman
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Someone referred to it as a Ponzi scheme the other day on here, I wouldn’t go that far, but it’s gambling dressed up as investment with extraordinarily high risk and low chance of a positive return. The way it presents itself as a product is very questionable IMO. You are buying something with perceived value, but with no actual value above a few pence in dividends and with terms can be changed any time (and will expire after 3 years).

          1. The Rumour Mill
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            So in their own terms and conditions did they have the right to change share prices at any point? That seems the crux of it. If they did then have they actually done anything wrong, legally?

              1. Flair
                • 4 Years
                3 years, 7 months ago

                Same guy got a lot of toxicity from the FI Community for pointing it out.

                1. The Tinkerman
                  • 9 Years
                  3 years, 7 months ago

                  Unsurprisingly I guess, given the exposé will damage the market and thereby lose them money. If I had money in it I’d take it all out now, swallow the loss, and go to the industry regulator to complain.

                  1. Rash
                    • 7 Years
                    3 years, 7 months ago

                    Problem is there's virtually nothing left to take out!

              2. Rash
                • 7 Years
                3 years, 7 months ago

                Well written piece, wish I'd seen this earlier.

              3. The Rumour Mill
                • 7 Years
                3 years, 7 months ago

                Thank you. Fascinating read.

            1. Ginkapo FPL
              • 13 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              They did have that in t's&c's

        2. jason_ni
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Was there any kind of governance? If its just a few guys who can move it one way or the other without fca breathing down their neck, then it would be easy enough to manipulate on the back end.

          1. The Rumour Mill
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Yeah spot on. It's the governance aspect which is crucial in this case

      2. Rash
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Warned but yet have FFS, talksport etc all promoting it!

        1. The Tinkerman
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Yeah, they need constant growth of the product to prevent the prices of the “shares” from collapsing. So they increasingly need to pump money into advertising.... at some point the bubble has to burst.

        2. The Tinkerman
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          https://caanberry.com/is-football-index-a-ponzi-scheme/

          If I were you I’d withdraw whatever money you can of what is left in your account and complain to the industry regulator. The chances of you recovering any money is tiny, but at least right now you can get some of it back. Losing 80% is better than losing 100%.

          1. Flair
            • 4 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Heard a few people banking on it recovering long-term or being taken over by another company who'll refund the deposits. Is that feasible?

    8. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I'm still confident I'll get my £20k back

      1. Rash
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        You've got 20k tied up?

        1. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Yes, I had some cash after selling all my Gamestop shares 2 months ago.

          1. jia you
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            20k, you're kidding mate I hope?

            1. SADIO SANÉ
              • 9 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              he is kidding

            2. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
              • 9 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              Yes - sorry, thought it was obvious. I wouldn't invest 20p in something dodgy like this, and hopefully FFS will start to think a bit more before getting into bed with these sorts of charlatans.

              1. jia you
                • 8 Years
                3 years, 7 months ago

                would've been shocked if you had... and pretty obvious really... a bit surprised by FFS but when I seen General start advertising gambling sites a couple of seasons ago I predicted more would follow suit... a shame really

    9. jia you
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I love a punt and have gambled heavy back in the day but how people pumped their hard earned money into this I'll never know... in saying that I fell sorrow for those that did.
      I don't feel comfortable with the FPL content creators getting in bed with gambling sites at all, be nice if there was a clear line better the two... then again it's not an ideal world and people love a quick buck.

    10. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      It seems Adam Cole, based in Jersey and Mark Blandford have a lot of questions to answer.

      Essentially it's a gamble but was it also a con?

    11. Paul Psychic Octopus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      It's not dissimilar to spread betting and I suspect many on here have dabbled with sports spread betting through the likes of Sporting Index, SpreadEx etc. I know I have, but quit gambling altogether 15 years ago while I was £3,500 ahead.

      However the difference is governance and the basis on which prices or indices are calculated. Stocks, forex etc. are based purely on market prices generated by the weight of buyers and sellers, with intermediaries taking a simple commission for dealing and perhaps an admin charge for using their platform. The markets are highly regulated.

      In sports spread betting, which is also regulated, again prices are based on the balance of buyers vs. sellers, and actual events, e.g. you can go higher or lower on the number of goals or corners in a game.

      If Football Index 'prices' are determined in any other way than facts and buyers/sellers, e.g. some self-appointed expert judging player 'performance', then it's rigged. Even if I still gambled I would have avoided this product at all costs.

      As an aside, it's why FPL is by far the best fantasy football game. While some points elements have little grey areas, the system is based on real stats. Other games, like Sky and Sun, award points based on 'performance' judged by loons like Steve McManaman and Robbie Savage, hence are suspect.

      1. Flair
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        FPL is very simple and easy to use, and the beauty of it is in that simplicity.

  6. kennethrhcp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Leagues still updating for me. Weird

    1. aborg
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Same here.

  7. NielsvanDelft
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Ranks not updated yet? Or is it just me?

    1. fusen
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Grey circles for everyone!

      1. kennethrhcp
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        I thought at 1st I actually got the grey... half disappointed I didnt

  8. Weak Become Heros
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Anyone got the link/post to the pros team updates? Thanks

    1. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      1sec I commented on it. Will find

      1. Weak Become Heros
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks lad, appreciated.

          1. Weak Become Heros
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            I owe you a pint.

            1. kennethrhcp
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              Oh ya... say things like that when the pubs are closed 🙂

          2. jason_ni
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            This concerns me as a non gundo capper.. have a made a fatal error!?!?

    2. Davros
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Made the same moves as Magnus Carlsen. Maybe it wasn’t bonkers then

  9. Stranger Mings
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Morning, Which is the best midfielder (Already got raph) for Gw29 please a)Aubameyang B)son c) bale d) grealish if fit e) other?

    1. Holmes
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Aubameyang if he doesn't start in Europa before GW29, otherwise Son

      1. Stranger Mings
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers good point about Europa league... I may get both if can

    2. Fantasydreamer
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I would say Son if no wildcard after (will also have a future double) or aubamayang if you do have wildcard

      1. Stranger Mings
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Hi cheers I was going to play wildcard GW30 so just looking at best players for GW29

  10. Old Man
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Sorry to ask a silly question, but do we know why all the leagues & positions therein are yet to be calculated? All those grey arrows .....

    1. Ginkapo FPL
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Martinez

    2. Holmes
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Probably server issues or something similar

      They might also be thinking that rank aren't going to change much anyway, let's delay the update for 1 day 😀

      1. Old Man
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Possible I suppose.

  11. Hazardous1983
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Why is leagues not updated fpl towers chilling

  12. Rash
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    https://twitter.com/FootballIndex/status/1368311673472364547?s=19

    Football index turned off people being able to comment due to the mass influx of complaints..

    Scammers

    1. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Yet promoted on FFS, no chance I’m committing to membership next season.

  13. tisza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Is there not an argument that in top 10k the criteria for a differential player is actually higher than 10%?
    I'm up there and I looked at ownership of my team and only player under 50% top 10k ownership is Targett.
    Having used a number of differentials to get to top 10k blanks and DGWs have seemingly templated my team

  14. Flair
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Wonder when FFS will take this down.

    https://twitter.com/FFScout/status/1365624412830064644

    1. Rash
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      They seriously need to cut ties with them period

      1. g40steve
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Correct, if FPL keep all the gambling sites I will not pay for membership next year.

        1. Rash
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Same, I have been robbed of thousands of pounds by these scam artists

    2. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      So during KDBs injury period he lost hardly no value but lost 30% of owners, now he has gone up in price with small numbers of ownership gain?

    3. jason_ni
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      This whole fi just didn't compute with me, trading cash against a players value, maybe I have a simple mind!

      Not surprised its ended as it has, but am sure its not much consolation for those involved im sure.

  15. The Big Fella
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    For those with their FH still, are they playing BGW 29 or in GW33 like Bigman Bakar suggests?

    1. Holmes
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Not yet decided, might even use in some double. It won't be used in GW29, that's for sure

    2. The Ilfordian
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I’ve already set my stall for FH29; I don’t have enough players to change now. I may end up with 10 players in the BGW and maybe a hit to get good coverage of City and Spurs either side. I can certainly see the argument for not FHing in 29; I think many people will be able to get a good side with mostly their existing players

      1. The Ilfordian
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        I mean managing BGW 33

    3. Jordan.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      me and rival both in h2h top 3 in private league,with good money ,hes used his free hit and can probably get 7 players (4atm) so its a no brainer for me to get 11 in 29 with my f/h ,thats the prime reason for me

    4. Iwantmorepointsthanks
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Definitely not in BGW29 for my team

    5. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I was going to use it in 29 but the Spurs fixture has helped out.

      I have Martinez, Struijk, Lascelles, Reguilon, Son, Smith-Rowe, Kane & Watkins and 3 free transfers so I think I can navigate it ok.

      I am likely to be going into 33 with 3 City & 3 Spurs missing and at best I will only be able to (or want to) drop 2 of those 6, so FH in 33 looks favourable

  16. Hulk Smash
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Has OR updated? If not I have a grey arrow!

    1. fr3d
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Do you know the guy above?

      1. Hulk Smash
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        He's my alter ego.

    2. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      If your points running total on your history page isn't updated, then neither has your OR

      1. Hulk Smash
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Good point. You can tell I've just woken up.

  17. Tonyawesome69
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Anyone feeling a bit more mentally refreshed after having little involvement in yesterday's games?

    1. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Only martygate

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Yup wee bit annoyed that he only got 7 and not the 10

        1. IANMARSHALLRULES
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          lol

    2. Hulk Smash
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Yeah I made a decision to only watch the Villa game and although it wasn't great, I'm glad I didn't fatigue myself by watching all of them. There'll surely be some worth watching today though.

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Only had Martinez but decided not to watch any of the games live yesterday. Potentially have 6 players today (Pep roulette).

  18. fr3d
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    OR updated

    1. The Ilfordian
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Woohoo- small increase now in place!

    2. jason_ni
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      #nojusticeformarti

  19. gooberman
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Bring on next season and the return of fans and normal kick off times. Another gameweek of drip feeding of games. Not a single match of any interest for me until 16.30 today. Boring boring boring.

    1. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      You may not have had a match of interest to you playing until 4:30 today in normal times either

    2. SADIO SANÉ
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I like the new match times personally

      1. AIRMILES
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Me too.

        1. Jafooli
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Me three.

          1. jason_ni
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Same, Its maybe more to do with the fact that every game is shown live, and I don't have to revert to trying to get some dodgy stream for a 3pm ko that keeps buffering.

            1. SADIO SANÉ
              • 9 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              yeah this is my main reason too tbh 😀

    3. sunzip14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      That's nothing compared to my struggle. Most good fixtures starting late means us people in East-Asia have a hard time watching it live. For e.g Manchester derby today starts at 1:30 am and Spurs vs Palace @4:15 am. Matches tomorrow are at 3 and 5 am respectively.

  20. Wheato182
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Dunk worth the extra 0.5/0.7 over White/Burn?

    1. Hulk Smash
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Better goal threat

      1. Wheato182
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Brighton tho so I'm guessing he's probably not worth 0.7 extra over Burn. Wanted to see others opinions before pulling the trigger.

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      If you want a Brighton def short term to cover 29 then I would go with Veltman at 4.3. See stats in the link and Lamptey has had an injury setback so should be nailed for a while

      https://twitter.com/FPL_Swe/status/1368119752430878725?s=19

      1. Wheato182
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers thats the information I need.

  21. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    My players all seem to suffer from Ineffective Ownership (IO).

    Could we have a fancy article on that and why I am pants at FPL, please.

    1. che
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      If it's any consolation. The current world No. 1 has a career best finish of 1.6million

      1. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        That still rules Jafooli out 😉

        1. che
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Ooooh, Harsh!

        2. Jafooli
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          😮 😛

          Best OR 251 (2012/13) 😎

          1. Jafooli
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            2nd best OR 900 (2013/14) 😉

            1. Jafooli
              • 12 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              Want more? 🙂

              1. Paqueta Rice
                • 3 Years
                3 years, 7 months ago

                “Multiple top 10k finishes” there Jaf

                Reminds me of someone

          2. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Only 252 people played that year though 😉

            1. Jafooli
              • 12 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              The 252 player quit the season half way through.....

  22. tbos83
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    I'd like to see some full statistical analysis on the difference fixture difficulty makes to points.

    1. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      At the end of the season, FFS should go back through all results vs their ticker predictions and see how they performed. In fact they could do it as a running success/failure chart.

      1. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        They would only do this if their results were excellent, which they blatantly wouldn't be.

        1. Jafooli
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          This is true 😀

      2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        And show people that their members area tools are more placebo effects rather than actually helping paying members? Are you mad?

        1. Jafooli
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          You know I’m mad 😉

    2. Casual Player
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      My guess would be not as much as most people think.

    3. SADIO SANÉ
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      same, guess the problem is that it's hard to actually grade the fixtures difficulty well enough

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        You can predict results, say home win, away win and draw.

        Much more difficult to predict who scores in any given game.

        On SofaScore the most accurate predictors can get to 70%, largely on Russian football it seems.

        In reality anything over 50% is good. Hence why bookies win even on the most simple football bet.

        1. AC/DC AFC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Just looked again. The top few predictors on SofaScore are for table tennis. More predicable when it's 1 v 1.

          A team game has so much unpredictability built in, the beauty of football is that it is unpredictable.

          In Rugby the strongest team wins most times.

          In football a team 100 places lower in a semi professional league can beat a Premier League team in the FA Cup.

      2. Hangman Page
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Hard to take into account factors like injuries, suspensions, rest period and form at that time like.

        I suspect it’d be a lot of effort without providing an awful lot of insight.

  23. Casual Player
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    This is a lot of words to recommend pick the players that will score the most points 🙂

  24. Hangman Page
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Nice article, well written.

    Personally though I pay no attention whatsoever to ownership and try to ignore what everyone else is doing. I find by simply picking who I think will do best for my team over the next few weeks and setting my own points targets I play much better as I don’t have that FOMO and as a result, I play a lot more logically.

    1. nolard
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      How is that working out for you?

  25. No Kane No Gain
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Apart from Everton Villa and Spurs Soton, are there any more doubles expected?! I’m running out of time to use my TC!

    1. Hangman Page
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I am guessing yes because whoever goes through in the cup will miss out on GW32?

      1. No Kane No Gain
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        I thought this but there is a chance they could be moved midweek the same week?!

    2. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Yes, a fair few but not brilliant combos.

      Gundogan in gw24 and possibly a Man City player this dgw was likely optimum.

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Here are the Double Gameweek fixtures that could be caused by GW36 fixtures moving to GW35 if the PL go ahead with the plan in the Athletic article:

        If Man City reach Final:
        Man City vs CHE+new
        Newcastle vs lei+MCI

        If Chelsea reach Final:
        Chelsea vs mci+ARS
        Arsenal vs WBA+che.

        Credit Ben Crellin.

        1. AC/DC AFC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          More potential DGW35 fixtures:

          If Man Utd or Leicester reach Final:
          Man Utd vs avl+LEI
          Leicester vs NEW+mun

          If Southampton reach Final:
          Southampton vs liv+FUL
          Fulham vs BUR+sou

          If Everton or Sheffield Utd reach Final:
          Everton vs whu+SHU
          Sheffield Utd vs CRY+eve.

          Ben C.

          1. AC/DC AFC
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            This scenario is based on pushing fixtures back in gw36 and 37 to accommodate 10,000 fans in the larger stadiums.

            If this happens then the FA Cup Final will almost certainly cause two fixtures to be postponed in Gameweek 36 and those fixtures would move to the midweek before the FA Cup Final.
            This would probably mean four teams would get a Double Gameweek in GW35 and a Blank Gameweek in GW36.

            Ben Crellin.

  26. Reacher
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    The people at FPL towers seem to be finally getting around to updating the leagues etc, must have been on the sauce last night!

    Had my hopes up for a Martinez save pint review for a few mins haha

    1. Reacher
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Point not pint think I’ve had to much sauce last night!

    2. Hangman Page
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      He’s saving all his pints for when the pubs open.

      1. Reacher
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Haha I owe him a few after what he has has done for my team this season

  27. Paqueta Rice
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Anybody starting to consider Werner again 😳

    1. Reacher
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I did for 30secs yesterday then I quickly came to my senses

      1. Paqueta Rice
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        His performances have improved recently to be fair 😆

    2. Flair
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Could be a decent cap shout for 28 but I think the next time I'll be considering him will be for the 21/22 season.

      1. Paqueta Rice
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah, I need an Ings replacement and was considering something like Tarkowski & Ings to Rudiger & Werner.

        Next few fixtures look decent.

    3. The Ilfordian
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I have him. He’s getting in good positions and looks more confident but at this time of the season, I want more certainty and less punt and unless he starts hauling very soon, he’ll be going to fund Bruno coming back in

    4. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Prefer Mount

    5. nolard
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Not really, only defense and Mount that I would consider.
      It seems they haven't yet landed on their attacking first-choices.

      1. Andy_Social
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Werner and Mount will be decent picks. I'm working up to double Chelsea defence as City rotate into PL oblivion.

  28. Sim Simma
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    ⚽ Team News 📰
    WEST BROM : Johnstone, Furlong, Bartley, O'Shea, Maitland-Niles, Yokuslu, Townsend, Gallagher, Phillips, Pereira, Diagne
    Subs: Button, Robson-Kanu, Ajayi, Robinson, Livermore, Sawyers, Peltier, Snodgrass, Grant

    NEWCASTLE : Dubravka, Krath, Lascelles, Clark, Dummett, Willock, Hayden, Shelvey, Fraser, Hendrick, Joelinton
    Subs: Darlow, Lewis, Carroll, Ritchie, Gayle, Murphy, Longstaff, Manquillo, Fernandez

    1. Qaiss
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Need a goal from Diagne here

      1. Andy_Social
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Gonna Football Manager through this. Need my concentration for the big boys.

    2. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      What ya reckon 1-1?

      2-2.

      Or 2-1?

      1. Andy_Social
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        I have it down as 1-0. Liverpool 1-0 and Mancs 0-0. Not expecting much!

    3. sunzip14
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Wow! what an exciting match to start the day 🙂

    4. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Waiting for the PL games, no interest in these Championship matches....

      1. The Ilfordian
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Yes, but if a low key start to what is otherwise a big day. Going to plough through some work during this match so I can be focused for the afternoon’s excitement

  29. HonestBlatter
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    I cannot believe that Emi Martinez third save is still missing from FPL. All other stats app have 3 saves for him!

    1. Andy_Social
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Cost a save point AND a bonus point 🙁

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        SofaScore who have someone at every game have him on 2 saves.

        Is that part of or separate to Opta stats?

    2. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Does that point really matter that much?

      1. Andy_Social
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah - my weekly cash minileague sometimes comes down to a point.

        1. AC/DC AFC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          And how much do you stand to win or lose weekly?

          1. Andy_Social
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            $45. Why?

    3. Iwantmorepointsthanks
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Shows how rigged FPL is

  30. Firminooooo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Lets go Johnstone. Please outscore Martinez on my bench.

    1. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Against an attack spearheaded by Joe Linton, you may be in luck.