The key Fantasy Bundesliga lessons from 2021/22 so far

With the ongoing international break and a Wildcard period in force, this felt like the perfect opportunity to write another Fantasy Bundesliga data piece and look at what we’ve seen so far in the opening weeks of the season.

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Current League Table Standings

Starting with the current league table above (click to expand), perhaps to the surprise of many, it is Wolfsburg that find themselves to be the early pacesetters as the only team to win all three of their opening games. Second-place Leverkusen are also showing their bite, scoring four goals in each of their last two games.

Meanwhile, following a worrying pre-season and a poor opening-day result against Gladbach, Bayern Munich have been back to their imperious best, winning four games on the trot in league and cup competitions and scoring 23 goals in the process.

At the other end of the table, things once again look worrying for last season’s strugglers Hertha Berlin, who find themselves propping up the table as the only club on zero points. They are joined in the bottom three by Augsburg and newly promoted Greuther Furth; all three sides have conceded 3+ goals in at least two of their three games so far.

Clinical Attackers

Let’s first start with the fun part and evaluate the attacking play of all the Bundesliga teams thus far (click the below image to expand).

Interestingly, only Bayern from the top three feature amongst the leading teams for points from goal attempts, while all three of the league’s bottom sides feature among the bottom five. This seems to indicate that though taking a lot of shots doesn’t guarantee a place at the top of the table, the failure to register a significant number of attempts at goal is a fairly good indicator of which teams are likely to struggle in the division.

The above graphs (click to expand) focus on the efficiency and effectiveness of the goalscoring prowess of all the Bundesliga teams. A high shot rank implies a low number of shots and a high-efficiency rank implies a low conversion rate. The ideal team would have both a low shot and efficiency rank, meaning they take a lot of shots and convert them into goals very well.

Some key takeaways from the graphs:

• Union, Bochum and Augsburg attackers have had a very high conversion rate so far.
• Bayern attackers understandably place well thanks to the prolific beast that is Robert Lewandowski and the fantasy positioning of other players such as Thomas Muller and Serge Gnabry.
• Furth, Wolfsburg and Eintracht attackers are leaving much to be desired in chance conversion (Rafael Borre, sort your act out).
• Monchengladbach attackers are poor at taking shots and as bad at converting them, the worst kind of combination.
• Augsburg, Union, Hertha and Furth midfielders are poor at bringing in the goals.
• Dortmund and Freiburg midfielders look good for goals.
• Stuttgart, Union, Mainz and Leipzig defenders are very important to their team’s scoring potential. The first three of these teams play with a wing-back system and are renowned for their set-piece threat.
• A number of teams (those ranked worst for shot rank) have had defenders register no points for goal attempts, meaning they only take one-off shots or none at all.

Having looked at teams, I wanted to also highlight the top players who are most likely to score a goal, as well as those that have proved most wasteful thus far.

Arguably the Bundesliga’s best player over the past couple of seasons, Lewandowski, has the stats to back his early-season scoring form. So far it looks likely he may yet replicate his heroics of a record-breaking 20/21 season.

Borre and Stindl are two players that interestingly feature in both tables. Both have high potential and have hopefully invested in some new shooting boots over the international break. Stindl is a personal favourite of mine thanks to his performances in previous seasons but Borre certainly has some work to do while he tries to fill the hole left at Eintracht by the departure of Andre Silva.

Kramaric already ranks among some of the top early performers thanks to his creative side but his xG underperformance suggests more is yet to come from the Hoffenheim talisman.

Orban is the only defender to feature among the top 20 players for xG and has converted none of his chances, yet still ranks sixth amongst defenders for Fantasy Bundesliga points.

The Form Men

Here are the top points performers by position after the first three weeks (click to expand):

It’s worth noting that 21 of the players in the graphs above cost more than 10m and the big guns seem to dominate the standings as you move up the positions. Only two goalkeepers and five defenders priced above 10m make their respective lists but seven midfielders and as many attackers achieve the same feat. This reiterates the point made in my pre-season article regarding the value of investing further up the pitch.

Dominant Defences

Digging through the data, I’ve noticed something interesting in player performance, particularly among defenders. A clean sheet carries a relatively small reward of just three points but every goal conceded results in a loss of one point, so perhaps as important as shut-outs is seeing which teams consistently put up good stats. For example, a team keeping a clean sheet one week but conceding five goals the next is equivalent to conceding once each week.

I’d also argue that teams conceding small amounts each week are more constant and usually more likely to keep clean sheets as a whole. Let me show you the impact this has:

The table you see above contains the top 10 defenders by KPI. A steady stream of good KPI performance is arguably the most sustainable factor pointing towards which players are likely to be amongst the top scorers come the end of the season.

However, note also the number of goals their team has conceded and the overall placing of the player in the defender rankings. With the exception of the two Stuttgart defenders, who make up for the goals conceded with exceptional attacking output, defenders from teams that concede are likely to struggle due to points lost from goals conceded and being on the losing team more frequently. In fact, among the top 10 defenders overall at the moment, only three (Kempf, Giesselmann and Sosa) are the only ones to play for teams that have conceded more than three goals so far. These are also the three defenders with the highest goals and assists totals thus far, making up for their team’s defensive frailties.

I’d like to finish off with some defensive xG data to highlight which teams’ defenders are likely to provide a sustainable route to points and which ones are likely to struggle.

It may surprise you to find Mainz performing so well, although they might have been somewhat aided by a kind opening fixture run (facing the two promoted sides). The point I’d like to argue is that with the exception of situations where a player is providing exceptional attacking output (like Sosa or Kempf), it is best to target defenders from the sides lower in this table, particularly ahead of kind fixture runs. They are more likely to provide consistent returns and even if they don’t deliver a tonne of attacking output, they can often make up for it with their team’s defensive solidity.

I hope you found this article and the data provided both useful and insightful. As always, reach out to me on Twitter should you have any questions or if you just wish to discuss Fantasy Bundesliga; my DMs are always open.

Good luck with the Wildcards and I’ll be back in a few weeks with the next update!

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