Pro Pundits

My Free Hit draft and thoughts on playing the chip in Gameweek 19

First of all, here’s wishing you and yours a Merry Christmas!

Fantasy Premier League (FPL) was in a very merry move as they handed out an extra Free Hit chip in the festive period, which seemed well-timed as we have received the news of (at least) three games being postponed in Gameweek 19:

  • Liverpool v Leeds United
  • Burnley v Everton
  • Wolves v Watford

This had a big impact on the state of play as most Fantasy managers own three Liverpool assets including a £13.0m-rated Mohamed Salah. There is also a heavy percentage of FPL managers owning the likes of Raphinha (£6.6m) or a Watford striker.

This will lead to a few players thinking of deploying the Free Hit chip this week.

THOUGHTS ON THE FREE HIT

My own thoughts on chip strategy at the moment is that there is no ‘one size fits all’ way of dealing with this, as it mainly depends on how your team is placed, but my initial thought is if you can take a hit or two to field a reasonable team in Gameweek 19, I would be more inclined to do so because they players from Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and West Ham United that have good fixtures in Gameweek 19-21 also could have a potentially good-looking Double Gameweek in Gameweek 22.

It also depends on how comfortable you are selling Salah who will be rested and ready to go against a tired and injury-hampered Leicester City defence in Gameweek 21. As things stand and if the AFCON is going ahead, Salah could potentially play only two out of the next five Gameweeks, which are matches against Leicester City and Chelsea. It is worth noting that Liverpool could have a very good-looking Double Gameweek in Gameweek 22, for which I would definitely hold onto Diogo Jota (£8.1m) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.3m) despite the blank.

There are alternate captaincy options in Gameweek 20 if you do choose to sell Salah, namely in the form of Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.5m), who faces Burnley at home, one of the Spurs premium attackers who travel to Southampton and Jota himself, whose underlying numbers have been incredible in the last few games. There is no denying that the potential of Salah versus a tired Leicester is huge and I’ve also seen a few in the FPL community suggesting Free Hitting in Gameweek 20 to gain the Egyptian back for one week only, instead buying players who have a good fixture in Gameweek 20 as well as a potentially appealing-looking Double Gameweek 22.

Like I said, there are just too many moving parts at the moment and as content creators, we can’t really tell you what to do but we can cite the factors to consider while playing your chips. We dive into as many factors to consider as possible in this week’s episode of The FPL Wire which you can view below:

FREE HIT DRAFT

What I did do, and what I recommend you do, is have a Free Hit draft in mind in case we have any last-minute cancellations, which could well happen given the rumours circulating on Christmas Day. I gave a Free Hit draft a whirl and these are my thoughts:

Arsenal have really tightened up as a defensive unit and are in the top five teams for expected goals conceded (xGC) in the last six matches. Norwich at the other end of the spectrum are struggling for goals and only five teams have a better expected goals (xG) tally than them in the last six matches. Keeping this in mind, I would be very happy to double on the Arsenal defence with Aaron Ramsdale (£5.1m) in goal and Kieran Tierney (£4.8m) who has a considerable attacking threat from that left-back spot.

Joao Cancelo (£6.8m) simply plays for the best defence in the country and being the top shot taker in the league amongst all defenders, I don’t see a world in which you can leave him out.

The same applies for Reece James (£6.3m), who despite playing a strong Aston Villa team finds his place in my Free Hit draft just because of the immense potential he offers on both sides of the pitch. Yes, Chelsea haven’t kept too many clean sheets of late but it is also worth noting that N’Golo Kante (£4.9m) is on the pitch again and James is second to only Alexander-Arnold this season for Mins/ xGI.

Diogo Dalot (£4.5m), who is playing in an advanced full-back position against a struggling Newcastle United, would be my fourth starting defender.

In attack, the first thing that came to my mind is Newcastle United is definitely the team to target with your attackers and I want a huge slice of that. Which is why I would stick Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.5M) and Bruno Fernandes (£11.6M) in my team. I would want atleast a couple of attackers from Manchester United and I would definitely put the armband on Ronaldo this Gameweek just because of Newcastle United’s defence.

Gabriel Martinelli (£5.4M) who has the fourth highest xG non penalty amongst all attackers in the last four matches would be in my draft because of the value he offers. Arsenal are in a good space at the moment and in my opinion, Martinelli is Arsenal’s biggest goal threat as he’s really an inside forward and not a winger and finds him in goal scoring positions very regularly.

One problem I have with this draft is having just one attacker from Manchester City attack who are playing a depleted Leicester City defence. Kevin De Bruyne (£11.9M) would find a place in my team from that attack and if I was confident of another attacker, I would try shoe horning one more into my free hit draft.

The rest of my midfield would be made up of a well-rested Son Heung-min (£10.4m) – providing the Palace match goes ahead – and Jarrod Bowen (£6.5m), who has incredibly strong underlying numbers and plays Southampton at home.

I would have at least two playing substitutes given the current situation in the league.

pro-pundit-free-hit-thoughts

If you are unsure of players, the Arsenal defence and the attackers from both the Manchester teams are what I would prioritise and then figure the rest out.

That is it from me this week. Good luck this Gameweek!

1,049 Comments Post a Comment
  1. corderz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    King or Watkins to fund Ronaldo?

    1. Over Midwicket
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      King

    2. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I'd say Watkins as more likely their next fixture also gets postponed (LEE). Although if it doesn't, great fixture for Villa.

      But Watkins has a game this week so I wouldn't sell him over among who doesn't.

    3. iL PiStOlErO
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      The King is dead, long live Watking

      1. corderz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Simply loveleh

        Well done that man

  2. corderz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    A) Martinelli
    B) Bowen

    (have ESR + Antonio)

    1. iL PiStOlErO
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      B

  3. NobodyF*cksWithTheJesus
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Somehow still have Vardy and now not sure what to do as he at least has a fixture:

    A) Vardy to Ron, leaving me with 10 players
    B) Sissoko to Bowen, leaving me with 11 but one is yellow flagged Vardy v City

    Both would be for -4 and funded by Salah to Son (assuming spurs is on)

    What would you do?

    1. waltzingmatildas
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      A

  4. The Mighty Whites
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    1FT, 3.2 ITB, thoughts?

    DDG - Bachmann

    TAA - Cancelo - James - White - Livramento

    Salah - Jota - Gundogan - Raphinha - Allan

    Watkins - Antonio - King

    Currently got 8 players…

    A - Free Hit
    B - Salah & King to Ronaldo & Saka / Bowen / Martinelli
    C - King to Broja
    D - other?

  5. Andy_Social
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Can anyone remind me - why is the Wolves -Watford game off?
    I'm trying to work out which games are likely to be off GW20: Leeds - Villa, Everton - Newcastle and what else?

    Thanks.

    1. Wild Rover
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Covid at Watford

    2. Karan14
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Watford had a covid outbreak last week thats why. But they expect game against West Ham to go ahead.

      1. Andy_Social
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Ah, this is the key point. I can bring Bowen in but not if he misses the next GW. Cheers.

  6. Firmino
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    What time was Villa game called of last GW?

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Chico time

    2. Podge
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      About 30 minutes before the deadline I think

    3. Andy_Social
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Exactly one hour before the deadline, simultaneously to me pressing the transfer button.

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Rookie mistake

        1. Andy_Social
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Well I ain't getting fooled twice. I'll prolly get caught in the Great FPL Crash 5 mins before deadline.

  7. Tshelby
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    FH?

    Still have all my chips

    0.7 ITB - 1FT - WC still possible

    DDG
    TAA*, Cancelo, James
    Salah*, Mount, Bilva, Jota*
    Dennis*, Wilson, Lacazette

    Ramsdale, Livra, Gilmour, B.Williams

    1. Over Midwicket
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      WC imo to get Son, Ronaldo, possibly KDB, Bowen etc.

      1. Jam0sh
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Probably this

    2. One More Hit
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Don’t wildcard until just before the Dec 28 deadline IMO.

      Very few interesting striker options, and Ronaldo would involve a hit the week before w/c.

      If Spurs game goes ahead, follow the crowd and go Salah > (S)on

  8. Stranger Mings
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    8 players left if spurs off so a) FH b) -4 to get 10 or c) -8 to get 11? Thanks

    1. neilmurphy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      -4 to get 10 is all you need to do and save free hit

      1. Stranger Mings
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Yeh thanks guess that’s the safe option although have ESr who could b benched ‘n

    2. Podge
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Fh teams should be at a huge advantage if spurs is off

      1. Stranger Mings
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks 50-50 if will FH - guess essentials for that arsenal, MU, WH & Chelsea

  9. Sal8
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Bottomed

    Ddg
    Reg cancelo james livra
    Bilva esr
    Wilson antonio

    (Salah jota taa raph king)

    1. Salah/taph to son/mahrez for -4?
    2. Anything else?

    Will be wildcarding next gw to get salah back in.

  10. RWB_1991
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Who to captain, Cancelo or Martinelli?

    1. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Cancelo

  11. FredrikH
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Guaita
    Cancelo James Rudiger Reguilon
    Bernardo Ødegaard Gundogan
    Antonio Laca

    Steer TAA Salah Dennis.

    Comes down to
    A) Salah -> Son (11 on paper)
    B) Salah+Dennis -> Ronaldo+6M mid (-4) fielding 12 with the doubts there is.

    1. FredrikH
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Forgot about Jota in the mix

    2. sentz05
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Same situation and I’m leaning towards A

      1. FredrikH
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        A leaning as well.

    3. Over Midwicket
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      B with Bowen

      1. FredrikH
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        Bowen is 0.5 too much sadly.

        1. Over Midwicket
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          A

  12. MysticMac17
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    If you can’t afford KDB who is the best City mid to get on FH? Thinking Mahrez might be worth a punt. Impossible to predict who starts with Pep

    1. Branch Warren
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Foden

  13. phoenixfromtheflames
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Foden(c) or Son (c)?

    Foden could be dynamite if he’s let out to play. Son’s the safer pick…

    hmmm

    1. My heart goes Salalalalah
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I'm on Foden

    2. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Son easy

    3. Over Midwicket
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Son.

    4. Lord.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      There’s nothing safe about Son atm

  14. Tinmen
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Hi guys, can you help me on this one.
    Leaning towards keeping free hit

    Keep Jesus or get rid?
    Thinking Salah and Jesus to Son and Ronaldo(C) -4
    Or something else?
    £2mil itb

    Ramsdale
    Rudiger Cancelo Livra Williams
    Bernardo Gallagher Saka
    Jesus Lacazette
    Foster King Jota Salah Trent

  15. My heart goes Salalalalah
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    I'm thinking Pukki to CR7 is worth a -4 if I look at it in isolation. Already took a -4. Sensible or not?

    1. CONNERS
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      You'll most likely want him long term so its a good move. May even pay off this week.

    2. @FPL__Engineer
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      100 percebt

  16. Atimis
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Comes down to…

    1) Use FH so can have Ronaldo this week and Salah next week
    2) Just sell Salah and live without him vs Lei
    3) Just keep Salah and don’t get Ronaldo, field 9/10 this week without bighitters

  17. Hansel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Ramsdale
    Cancelo James Alonso Williams
    Foden Saka Bowen
    Antonio* Watkins

    Gunnarsson, Salah, Trent, Jota, King

    A) Salah, King -> Martinelli, Ronaldo -4 (12 players whereof Antonio/Foden doubts and Williams not gonna get anything)
    B) Salah -> Son (11 and same doubts)
    C) Free hit

    1. Aadii
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      B and then pray for no more postponements.

  18. Kodap
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Which move would you rather do this week for free?

    1. Salah > KDB
    2. Jota > Foden
    3. Jota > Bowen

    1. Over Midwicket
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Antonio

    2. vova
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      1

    3. The Mighty Hippo
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      1

  19. KANTEnders
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Remove Watkins or Antonio for CR7?

    1. Hansel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Toni

    2. vova
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Antonio

  20. Over Midwicket
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Play DDG(new) or Ramsdale(nor)?

    1. TheSteel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Cointoss

    2. Mozumbus
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      B

    3. Amartey Partey
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      I’ve got both too. Going Ram.

  21. Scots Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Are either Johnston or Diop starters for West Ham?

    1. Hiiler
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      You mean Johnson? I'm hoping he plays since otherwise I have one more player missing. 🙂 But I have no idea actually just that he is not flagged rightnow anymore. No idea about Diop either.

    2. WHUFCSmith23
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Johnson played Coufal out of the side before Cresswells injury but when Cresswell comes back Johnson might drop out.

      Diop is nailed unless we sign a new centre back which I would assume we will but who knows with our owners.

    3. Gav
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Expect both start the next few at least.

      Diop will lose his place once Zouma is back. Not sure when that is.

      Cresswell is taking longer than expected to get fit according to Moyes so I expect he’ll go to left back as masuaku isn’t very good, coufal at right back.

      Thing to be aware of is we have a very depleted defence currently and these guys are in due to our better defenders being injured.

  22. fab
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    What's the deal with Sterling? Will he play today?

    1. Branch Warren
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Never know. I don’t rate him anyway

  23. Mozumbus
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    A. Salah to Son/KDB/Sterling? (Will have 10 players)
    B. Salah + Antonio > A + Kane -4

  24. Hotdogs for Tea
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Spurs Palace game confirmed on yet?

    1. Andy_Social
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      More like not confirmed off yet.

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        maybe the longer it is not confirmed as starting, then the less likely it will be played 🙂

    2. POGON 1948
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      They're waiting until fans leave home

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 10 months ago

        London derby

        1. POGON 1948
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 10 months ago

          Exactly, so they'll announce cancellation at 2:30pm

  25. Van der Faart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    FH live. G2G if no more news on postponements?

    Ramsdale
    James Cancelo Dalo Dias
    Bowen KDB Martinelli Saka Son
    Ronaldo(C)

    Sanchez Bavies Broja Archer

    Bench gives me a small bit of extra cover

  26. TomSaints
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Total chaos but sounds like spurs game is pretty certain now

    1. TheSteel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      What other chaos is there?

    2. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Certain to be...

    3. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Where's chaos

    4. Tinkermania
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Certain to go ahead?

  27. Bathman315
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    G2G?
    1ft, 2.8m ITB

    Ramsdale
    Rudiger, cancelo, Dalot, tierney
    Gundogan, Gallagher, sancho (c), Bowen,
    Watkins, broja

    Mandy, salah, Robertson, dobbins

  28. wulfrunian
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Do you think that Lei-Liv will go ahead?

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Leeds were at fault for Liverpool postponement. Leicester playing this GW, should probably be similar state in 2 days?

    2. iL PiStOlErO
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Do you think that it will not?

  29. The Mighty Hippo
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    It's pretty uncertain whether Antonio will play. Would you take a - 4 hit to replace him with Lacazette?

    1. FredrikH
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      If it's a 50/50 I'm happy to play him personally.

  30. Christina.
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 10 months ago

    Cancel it.
    come on.

    1. tokara
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      Support!

    2. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      😀

    3. rowdog24
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 10 months ago

      It’s a sad state of affairs when FPL has become a fixture cancellation wishing exercise. Shame on you.