Spot the Differential

Overlooked Armstrong can benefit from Southampton’s appealing fixture run

Gameweek 27 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Southampton, Burnley and Newcastle United, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

STUART ARMSTRONG

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £5.8m
  • GW27-31 fixtures: NOR | avl + NEW | WAT | bur | lee

Despite an injury-hit spell during the first half of the season, Stuart Armstrong (£5.8m) has been one of Southampton’s top performers of late, with two goals in his last three appearances in all competitions.

The Scottish international was excellent against Everton in Gameweek 26, causing all sorts of problems for the Toffees’ defence with his direct running. He ended the match with a goal and two bonus points, which followed his opener in the FA Cup fourth round tie against Coventry City earlier this month.

Deployed in an advanced midfield role behind Che Adams (£6.9m) and Armando Broja (£5.4m) last time out, Armstrong was encouraged to drift infield in Ralph Hasenhuttl’s 4-2-2-2 formation, with his display earning praise from his manager after the match.

“A massive impact. He’s a very intelligent player on the ball, fantastic with his runs with the ball. The number 10 is a fantastic position for him. I love the way he takes the game in his hands sometimes and creates chances, scores goals. A very intelligent and fantastic player when he is fit.

I must say that he learned to balance it right. Some moments in the past, I think he was a little bit too quick in going behind. And now he has a good feeling when it’s necessary to speed up or when it’s necessary to step on the ball and to play it back. And this is a very good combination. He’s always involved in all the actions. I think this is showing you how important he is for our game.” – Ralph Hasenhuttl discussing Stuart Armstrong after Southampton’s 2-0 win over Everton in Gameweek 26

Southampton have lost just once in their last nine games and have recently claimed eight points from a possible 12 in a tough run against Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and Everton. Now, they take on the Premier League’s bottom club Norwich City on Friday, followed by an appealing run of matches which includes a double-header in Gameweek 28 against Aston Villa and Newcastle United.

At his best, Armstrong is a real asset to Southampton, and could be a nice differential pick to capitalise on their appealing run.

DWIGHT MCNEIL

  • FPL ownership: 0.3%
  • Price: £5.7m
  • GW27-31 fixtures: cry + LEI | CHE | bre | SOU | MCI

After being dropped for the defeat to Liverpool in Gameweek 25, Dwight McNeil (£5.7m) has raised his game upon his return to Burnley’s starting XI.

It’s fair to say the 22-year-old has struggled to live up to expectations in 2021/22, with only one assist all season.

However, his -2.59 expected goal involvement (xGI) delta suggests he has been a little unfortunate not to return more.

Despite this season’s dip in form, McNeil has once again been the Clarets’ main creative outlet, as he ranks top at Turf Moor for chances created, crosses, successful take-ons and passes received in the final-third, whilst his 30 goal attempts is another team-leading total.

Key to his appeal is this week’s opponents Crystal Palace and Leicester City, given that both sides have shipped goals aplenty from set plays this season, which could be good news for McNeil, who has a share of Burnley’s set-pieces and regularly puts the ball into the box from wide areas. In fact, only Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.5m), James Ward-Prowse (£6.5m) and Andrew Robertson (£7.2m) have delivered more crosses than him all season.

McNeil has now produced excellent back-to-back displays against Brighton and Hove Albion and Spurs, and if he can carry on that form, could be a shrewd differential pick for those on the lookout for a new budget midfielder.

CHRIS WOOD

  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £6.7m
  • GW27-31 fixtures: bre | BHA + sou | che + eve | CRY | tot

With just three Premier League goals all season, Chris Wood (£6.7m) may have underwhelmed, but is now about to embark on a kinder run of fixtures which includes back-to-back Double Gameweeks.

The New Zealand international has been a model of consistency in recent years, scoring at least 10 goals in each of his four top-flight campaigns at Burnley.

Now, despite failing to score in five appearances since joining Newcastle United, he has led the line well and played a vital role in the Magpies’ upturn in form, which has seen them secure important wins over Leeds United, Everton and Aston Villa in their last four matches.

During that time, he leads the way amongst team-mates for shots in the box, with eight, which has included four headed attempts. That’s important, too, given that this weekend’s opponents Brentford rank bottom across the season for headed attempts conceded, with 71. Notably, Thomas Frank’s side have also conceded 20 goals in their last eight Premier League matches, which suggests the New Zealand international could get some joy in Gameweek 27.

Looking further ahead, successive Double Gameweeks follow, which includes games against Brighton and Hove Albion (h), Southampton (a), Chelsea (a) and Everton (a).

Newcastle appear to have moved up a gear in recent weeks, with more confidence on the ball, and given that Wood is the focal point of their attack, could be an effective differential pick for our frontlines.

477 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Bad Kompany
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Is Peters nailed? Really need the money

    Also thoughts on going Elanga over Broja?

    1. banskt
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Pieters is in until Taylor comes back which definitely could be in gw27, despite pieters deputising extremely well.

      Elanga may not see enough minutes to be a viable FPL option, jury still out.

      I suggest saving money up front, that's where we are seeing least amount of points this season. Something like Dennis, Broja, Gelhardt and you can have a solid team behind them.

    2. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I refuse to make any Pieters nailed jokes, okay Broja?

      1. NorCal Villan
        • 2 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Nails and peters are part of a plot line in the new (thankfully Tom Cruise-free) Reacher series

  2. Dan D
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    1) Coufal +Saka - to Mee and Ward Promise to have 11 players for -4 ?
    2) Coufal +Saka + King to Mee and Ward Promise and Weghorst for -8
    3) Coufla + King to Mee and Weghorst for -4 and 10 players

    how essential is Weghorst ?

  3. #NAGA5000
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    better for GW27:

    a. Bernardo, Sancho, Sterling
    b. Sancho, Mahrez, Foden
    c. Bruno, Sterling, Dalot?

    Thanks in advance!

  4. Jebiga
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    So dgw 29 will be for everton, arsenal, liverpool and spurs?

    1. Weeb Kakashi
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Yes Spot on.

    2. The Final Boss
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Brighton

    3. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Plus Brighton and Newcastle

  5. rokonto
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Anyone know how many points Andy of Let's Talk FPL got this week?

    1. The FPL Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      No

    2. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Andy does

  6. tibollom
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    FH activated, not sure on Shaw as my 3rd defender though, any other suggestions?

    Pope
    Shaw Cancelo Mee
    Sancho sterling mahrez son
    kane wegs broja

    gunn amartey ramsey williams

    1. tibollom
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      sancho sterling could be bruno and bsilva.. which is best?

      1. The FPL Units
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Not Bilva

        1. tibollom
          • 8 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          any other suggestions? basically Sterling + sancho or Foden + bruno?

          1. The FPL Units
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            2 years, 8 months ago

            Sterling and Sancho

            1. The FPL Units
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              2 years, 8 months ago

              Hopefully gets you get 20 plus points than your current team.

    2. banskt
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I would suggest KdB + enabler (Maddison/Willock/Ward-Prowse/Bowen/Gallagher) instead of Sancho + Sterling.

    3. Ranger3
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Not sure Shaw starts, Telles looked much better when he came on against Athletico

  7. Gunners in Haaland
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Morning all
    Gtg?

    DDG
    Cancelo RAN Digne KWP
    Fernandes(c) Coutinho Bowen
    Richarlison Broja Edouard

    Sanchez Salah* TAA* Diaz*

    1. The FPL Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Get rid of Edourd

      1. Botman and Robben
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        +1

      2. Gunners in Haaland
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Thanks

  8. klopptimusprime
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Need help deciding backline or is it worth Bruno -> Sancho to upgrade the back

    1.
    Pope
    Cancelo | Roberts | Livra
    (Bench: Amartey | Williams)

    2.
    Forster
    Cancelo | Mee | Roberts
    (Bench: Livra | Amartey)

    1. klopptimusprime
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Rest of team pretty template:

      Bruno Son Sterling Mahrez (4.3)
      Kane Weghorst Broja

    2. The FPL Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      On FH?

      1. klopptimusprime
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        yep

        1. The FPL Units
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          1

  9. Weeb Kakashi
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Too early but a GW29 FH team looks enticin

    1. Weeb Kakashi
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Pickford
      TAA Robbo James Romero
      Salah Son Saka Gordon
      Kane DCL

  10. Fpl_Ludwig
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Sterling and Sancho or Foden/Gundo and Fernandes?

    1. The FPL Units
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      A

    2. Weeb Kakashi
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      B. I expect Sancho to be benched this week.

      1. tibollom
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        benched for who? I doubt it, he's been one of ragnicks best performers... rashford is not on form at all, i think sancho will play

        1. Weeb Kakashi
          • 8 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          He has played too many games recently. I think Rashford and Elanga start. Idk I'm maybe biased because I own Rashford.

          1. tibollom
            • 8 Years
            2 years, 8 months ago

            mate id get rid of rashford, most likely he will be dropped and he will go with sancho and elanga on the wings.. more chance of that happening that sancho benched imo

      2. Bad Kompany
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        My guess is it will be elagna and Sancho

  11. The Suspended One
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    I TCd Mo, but didn’t watch the match

    These highlights are infuriating

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I didn't TC Salah and haven't watched.

      1. The Suspended One
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Should have had 4/5

  12. Bad Kompany
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Thoughts on Cresswell on FH over Bednarek?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Rob the bank?

      1. Bad Kompany
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Will just be spent on bench otherwise. Will still have one good bench player which should be enough

  13. Botman and Robben
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Big OR jump, over 1M places.

    https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/3861456/event/26

    1. Philosopher's Stones
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Fantastic

  14. NZREDS
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    If I transfer out Salah for Bruno this week (wildcarding next week) will I loose value on selling Salah then rebuying Salah on the WC next week?

    1. NZREDS
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Lose* -_-

    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Probably, points win the game.

    3. Qui-Gon-Joe
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Yeah

  15. The Final Boss
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Anybody who is in the 'dnt know what to do territory ' ?

  16. NABIL - FPL otai
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Good to go? on -12 hit

    DDG
    Cancelo Ait-Nouri
    Son (c) Mahrez (vc) Bruno JWP
    Wood Jimmy Weghorst

    (Guaita TAA Tierney Robbo)

  17. Winston.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Should I use the freehit or not? What’s your opinion?

    I have Cancelo, Bruno, Son, Weghorst, Broja, Dalot in any case + the following differences…

    A. Save FH and play;
    Lloris (lee), Digne (bha), Bowen (WOL), Raphina (TOT), DCL (MCI) or

    B. Use FH and get;
    Pope (cry, LEI), Mee (cry, LEI), Foden (eve), Mahrez (eve), Kane (lee)

    1. niaz1982
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      How many free hits have you got? If two then yes if one i would save

      1. Winston.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Two left, yes…

    2. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      A

  18. niaz1982
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Current team

    Sanchez
    Cancelo Livra TAA Digne
    KDB Bruno Bowen Jota*
    Edouard Antonio

    Subs: Foster, Cucurella, luiz & Dennis

    Looking to WC28 but this week should I:
    A. Edoaurd & Jota > Mahrez & Weg
    B. Dennis & Jota > S. Armstrong & Weg
    C. Dennis & Jota > S. Armstrong & Broja
    D. Something else.

  19. banskt
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Why is everyone buying Weghorst? His numbers are worse than Idah, Toney, Broja, Dennis, Sargent and many others over the last four matches. Not that Leicester and Palace are pushovers.

    Granted he has 2 games, but that is only 4 points whereas a single goal would net you 7-9 points.

    1. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      All the forwards suck

      1. The Suspended One
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        And he gets to suck twice this week

        1. banskt
          • 11 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          True, but I am seeing people considering lack of Weghorst / Burnley assets as a reason to activate FH. I don't own anyone from Burnley, but I am getting worried seeing the trend here. I am trying to figure out if there is any genuine reason to buy Burnley assets.

        2. NorCal Villan
          • 2 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          He’s got that going for him, which is nice

    2. niaz1982
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      As you say upturn in form, Burnley fighting to get out of relegation. Good stats at other clubs. He looked tired at end of spurs game though.

      1. niaz1982
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        *as you say dgw and upturn

      2. banskt
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        This makes sense. Fighting for relegation could possibly mean overperforming.

    3. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Not gonna captain him

    4. Karhumies
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Bought him for 26 for the double double. Buying for 27 does not make much sense IMO. FH27 why not since he has a double and not too expensive. People chasing last GWs points.

      1. banskt
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        This I think. Chasing last GWs points. Those are not coming back. I highly doubt point returns from any Burnley players, except Pope. He is the only one higher up on the stats table.

        1. Karhumies
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          I am currently on Pope, Mee, Tarkowski triple up on my FH27 draft in 442, dropping out my Weghorst from the FH27 template. Bednarek first on bench. I prefer all my Burnley eggs in the defense basket. I think people don't realize that Burnley massively exceeded their xG in the 3-0 win, and that's not sustainable going forward.

  20. Ibralicious
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Bit of an afterthought, but is this bench order correct?

    1. Williams
    2. Amartey
    3. Gilmour

    Cheers!

  21. Lignja
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Good morning! Need help on last 2 spots on wc, will bb next week.

    A. Kane, Bowen, Raphina
    B. Jimenez, Son, Raphina
    C. Jimenez, Son, Bowen

    (B and C gives enough money itb for chelsea defender soon)

    Dubravka
    Cancelo, Digne, Livramento, Coady
    Couthino, xxx, xxx
    xxx, Broja, Weghrost

    Sa, Salah, Taa, Saka

    1. CONNERS
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I'm on B with my WC.

    2. The Final Boss
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Only one arsenal? What if they get a double in 28?

    3. Steiger
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Have you considered JWP instead of bowen..? Fixtures look good and has a double in GW28.

  22. BIGREDDOG
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Gundogan has started the last two games and played okay. If he starts agains Everton, one of Bilva/Mahrez/Foden/Sterling are going to miss out. I really don't want to pick the wrong one!

  23. Hazardous1983
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Antonio or edouard to weghorst

    1. Inverted into midfield
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Ed

    2. Karhumies
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Broja in before Weghorst IMO. Southampton expected to score more than Burnley over 27-28. Would not be surprised if Weghorst gets rotated due to fixture congestion in 27.

  24. Hazardous1983
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Salah to son for a hit

    Prob wilcard.next week

  25. Botman and Robben
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Salah + VVD -> Son + Mee (-4). Will do Bruno -> Mo next week. Sounds OK?

    Sanchez
    Cancelo Coady Tierney*
    Bruno Bowen Ramsey Salah*
    Weghorst Maupay Broja

    Ramsdale VVD TAA Saka

  26. Stranger Mings
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Is too risky getting both mahrez & Sterling on FH as only hsve gilmour sub?

    1. Inverted into midfield
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Wait for any line up rumours

      1. Stranger Mings
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Cheers really difficult fitting both mahrez & Sterling in

    2. banskt
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Get Mahrez and Sterling (or better yet, KdB); and a strong sub.

      1. Stranger Mings
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Cheers would have to either downgrade mee to Roberts or cancello to Laporte

  27. Bavarian
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Tough Captain Choice this GW:
    A- Kane
    B- Son
    C- Bruno
    D- Mahrez
    E- Sterling
    F- Weghorst (DGW)

    1. NorCal Villan
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      B

    2. Ibralicious
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      F easy

    3. banskt
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      F. just because you included him along with others, lol.

    4. Bavarian
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Just feel Weghost captain choice a trap similar to Havertz (C) lately 🙂

      1. banskt
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Trap? I would call that a blunder. Go for one of your City mids. Mahrez probably.

    5. BIGREDDOG
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      B or F

    6. Bavarian
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Cheers ALL

  28. CONNERS
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Morning

    I'm on WC - Any thoughts on going with a cheap double up of Forster / Dubravka for BB next week?

    1. Holmes
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      If it floats your boat, why not. You can also look at Forster.

    2. CONNERS
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      That's who I'm suggesting above. Plus Dubravka.

      1. Holmes
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        oops, sorry. thought it was Foster

    3. CONNERS
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Ha, no worries. I think I may go with it as it frees up more cash for outfield players - thanks.

  29. Ckeswani
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Hey guys, would you prefer Sancho or Broja just for a 1 week punt? Not on a FH, and planning to WC in 28. Thanks.

    1. Holmes
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Broja

    2. Inverted into midfield
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Sancho

    3. banskt
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Broja.

  30. BIGREDDOG
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Choose 2:
    Sterling
    Sancho
    Mahrez

    1. Holmes
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Sancho MaHrez

    2. Bavarian
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Sterling-Mahrez