Selection Guide – Midfielders

In this latest updated guide for the 2008-09 season, I take a look at selecting midfielders – a position that has become the “power position” in recent seasons with the emergence of the real fantasy big hitters – Ronaldo, Lampard and Gerrard.

While these names are on every fantasy managers shortlist year on year, the midfield area of your side can also be the home of undiscovered gems, awakening sleeping giants and misclassified strikers. In other words it’s the one area of you side where a little inspiration with selection can really pay dividends.

Sifting the player list for midfielders or indeed any position can be arduous. So here I’ll talk through a process that can be used to narrow the player list and make it easier to compare players using a number of factors and yes, I’ll also be adding my own player recommendation spice to the mix.

For Starters

When it comes to selecting midfielders your search criteria typically narrows to just goals and assists – pure and simple. There are games that do bring in clean sheets and additional stats such as tackles and successful crosses as a scoring method, plus man of the match bonus points. For the bulk of this kind I’m going to discount them as in truth, goals and assists are dominant and overriding factors. However I am going to touch on all these factors later.

Initially then, this guide is centred around the idea that you can, to some extent, forecast the fantasy points output of midfielders based upon previous form and a number of factors. It’s far easier to predict goals and assists than it is to pick the frequency of Man-of-the-Match awards handed out at the whim of a group of journalists. And, as I am about to detail, by isolating such factors, it makes it much simpler to group players into organised lists or tiers that will help you to narrow your search.

Before you scan through this latest article, it’s worth having a look at my guide to General Team Selection. That will introduce you to the concepts that I’ll be talking through here, namely the art of finding first choice players, avoiding injury prone players and pouncing on misclassifications.That particular trick is magnified for the selection of midfielders – there are more misclassifications in this position than any other and if you can find a midfielder playing up front for his real-life team, you could have stumbled upon pure fantasy gold.

It’ also worth referring to my selection stats whilst using this and my other guides. To a certain extent they back up some of the claims I make here and while I’ll be bringing in some stats as we go, you’ll find a lot more available to you in those tables.

Tiers Before Bedtime

The main emphasis of this guide then, is the principle of separating players into tiers or a heirachy to help with the shortlist and selection process. This hierarchy of fantasy players can be created from the form shown in previous seasons and mirrors the kind of process that game organisers go through when assessing player values.

The placing of players into these tiers is by no means a science – its more an informed opinion and is all up for discussion and argument. It’s also important to stress at this point that the hierarchy of players can also vary from game to game, particularly as some games involve alternative scoring methods such as Man of the Match bonus points.

For the purpose of this guide I’ve put together a basic structure for midfielders that is based on the average placing of the players across a series of games based on last season’s performance, so, hopefully, it will be fairly useful for assessing players and their potential next season, no matter which game you’re playing.

The idea of the tier system is that once you’ve got your list of players split into tiers, you can examine the list in detail and hopefully identify those players that will increase their points output and move up the tiers in the coming season. When you break players down into a hierarchy, it’s far easier to assess their potential and value. If you can find just one or two players who will increase their output and move up the tiers and that are available at a decent price, then you’ve a chance of picking a side that can fair well in any mini-league.

While predicting which players will move up and down the tiers is not easy, there are sure-fire factors to consider when doing so.

Factor Me In

One factor that can influence a players fantasy points output from season to season, is a transfer move. While this season’s transfer window is still open at the time of writing, there have already been some notable transfers involving midfield players – Bentley to Spurs, Kapo and De Ridder to Wigan, Guthrie to Newcaslte.

When analysing your tiers, you need to examine what affect, if any, a change of clubs can have on the player or indeed, the players he leaves behind. Also, keep an eye on future moves – Gareth Barry to Liverpool is one such move that’s looked on the cards all summer. Will a move to Anfield increase or decrease his fantasy output for the coming season? How will his presence affect the output of Gerrard? These are all questions you need to consider when you start analysing the players in detail.

Appearances Matter

It’s a simple fact that if a player starts more games than last season then they are more likely to improve their fantasy points output, if they play less games, it’s more likely to go down. When considering this, you have to assess whether they are an automatic choice, the likelihood that they’ll be a victim of rotation and the likelihood of suspensions and injuries.

Firstly, look at who else their club has signed in their position and assess whether that could impact on their number of appearances. Giggs and Scholes for example, are gradually figuring less for United due to the arrival of Nani and Anderson last season. Similarly, Deco’s arrival at Chelsea seems likely to lead to increased rotation in the Chelsea midfield so Ballack, Lampard, Wright-Phillips, Essien and Cole could all feel it.

At this point, let’s take a look through the tiers of midfielders that I’ve created and discuss what factors play a part for the movement of specific players. The table below lists players over seven tiers – the arrows next to their names indicating my opinion as to whether they will increase, decrease or maintain last season’s return of fantasy points this coming season.

1st Tier	2nd Tier	3rd Tier	4th Tier	5th Tier	6th Tier	Unproven
Ronaldo	Young	Elano	Rosicky	Jenas	Osman	Deco
Gerrard	Barry	J Cole	Babel	Reid	Murphy	Modric
Fabregas	Downing	Davies	Bullard	Geremi	Nolan	Nasri
Lampard	Bentley	Nani	Dempsey	Malbranque	Sidwell	Gutierrez
	Cahill	Kalou	MG Pedersen	Ireland	Milner	Riga
	Petrov	Ballack	Kuyt	Valencia	Lennon	Villanueva
		Essien	Arteta	Giggs	Noble	Geovanni
				Scholes	Benayoun	Lawrence
				Carrick	Taylor	Gera
					Wright-Phillips	Behrami
					Malouda	Digard
					Huddlestone	Brunt

Tier One

This season’s first tier of players includes four players with Fabregas nudging his way into this group alongside the big hitters that are Ronaldo, Lampard and Gerrard. Fabregas occupied tier two in my guide last season but, as result of a decent goal haul, has promoted himself for this season. The question is can he maintain his points output for the term ahead.

That’s a difficult one. Fabregas thrived early on last season but his goal output fizzled out badly in the second half of the season. The Arsenal midfield is such an unknown quantity without Flamini and Hleb in there and while I can see Fabregas chalking up 15+ assists and plenty of bonus points in the FPL game, I can’t see him reaching double figures for goals.

Of the players in this tier I would say that both Ronaldo and Fabregas will struggle to maintain the points output of last term then. Ronaldo is believed to be absent until October through injury and will miss a fair chunk of United’s season as a result. Those missed games will see his points tallly take a significant hit, even before you consider whether he can match last season’s incredible form. There’s no doubt that he’ll be the top target in midfield on his return, but over the season, the points gap between him and the likes of Gerrard and Lampard should shrink.

Those two look more reliable sources at the time of writing and of the two, I’m currently favouring Lampard. I just don’t like the uncertainty introduced by the arrival of Keane at Anfield on Gerrard’s role. Both he and Lampard will have very strong seasons again and will be in the top four fantasy midfielders but of the four players here, I can only see Lampard increasing on last season’s haul of points.

He had just 21 starts for Chelsea last season through injuries and managed 10 goals and 10 assists. With 30+ starts this season, I see those figures being boosted to around 15+ in both areas. Gerrard notched up 11 goals and 11 assists in 32 starts last season and I can see him maintaining that, but lagging behind Lampard as a result.

Tier Two

Lets move into tier two then and assess whether any of the players there can “do a Fabregas” and break out into the top bracket. For me, the answer is right at the top of that tier in the shape of Ashley Young.

Classified as a forward by the majority of fantasy games last season, his new classification as a midfielder across the games makes him as near as you get to a must-buy in my opinion. It’s true that Young had an outstanding season but early glimpses in pre-season suggested that his form will only flourish further this term.

Barry’s likely move away from Villa could also give him a helping hand in terms of handing him penalty kicks – that alone would hand him a considerable boost in goals. As it is, he turned in 8 goals and 17 assists last season and this term I see him reaching 12+ for goals and 15+ for assists. That’s tier one stats if they materialise. A no-brainer for me.

Elsewhere in this tier I can see Petrov and Cahill increasing their output but failing to push on to tier one status. Petrov will be the chief attacking threat in the Man City side once again but he’s playing in a team going through transition under a new regime. He may should nudge above the 5 goals and 11 assists of last season but I can’t quite see him reaching double figures for goals.

Everton’s Cahill has plenty of potential but always struggles to get above that 30 game mark to threaten the big midfield point scorers. With 25+ appearances he should be good for double figures in the goals department but I can’t see him reaching the 30 games he’ll need to push on significantly.

Downing should kick on as a result of a full season supplying Alves up front for Boro. Ever present last season, Downing turned in 9 goals and 6 assists. I see that assist count increasing considerably to well over double figures and that should see an increase in output overall.

Bentley could go either way and the pre-season has seen me change my opinion on his likely impact. He has the talent to lift himself and increase his output and Spurs could well provide him the platform to do so.

He is generally more expensive than Downing across the games though and although more glamorous – I did have my doubts as to whether he could match the Boro man who has a monopoly on creativity in the Boro side. Bentley in comparison, is competing with Modric, Berbatov and dos Santos for goals and assists. They will also threaten to chip away at Bentley’s FPL bonus which was considerable whilst at Blackburn last season. I can see him struggling to match 35 points in this area in a Spurs side.

That said, pre-season form suggests he can rise above them and stand out as Spurs’ main creative influence. Much will depend on Ramos’ movements in the transfer market early on in the season. If Berbatov stays or a big replacement comes in and Bent can maintain his pre-season form, then Bentley could well come in with around 15 assists. I can also see his goal tally improving form 6 last season to around 8-10 this.

Finally there’s Barry – the only player in this tier I see dropping in output. There are straight forward reasons for this. For starters his future at Villa is still in considerable doubt. It’s still not clear if he’ll remain at Villa Park or depart for Anfield or even the Emirates. Either way I don’t see him matching the 9 goals and 10 assists of last term. Another season at Villa would appear to offer the best hope of that but even then I see the transfer saga affecting his overall game and his responsibilities within the Villa side. A move to Anfield meanwhile, would see him sacrificing spot-kick duties and see him far more vulnerable to rest and rotation. I can see a 5 goal, 8 assist season for Barry.

Tier Three

Essien and Nani are the potential big movers in this tier for me. Nani is set to have an increased role as a result of Ronaldo’s injury and, perhaps, Ferguson’s attempts to test how his side would cope without Ronaldo next season. In 17 starts last term, Nani contributed an impressive 9 assists and 3 goals. With 25+ starts and further experience behind him this term, he should increase that further and be pushing a 5+ 12+ season.

Essien meanwhile could benefit from change in role in Scolari’s side. It’s widely expected that he’ll play the holding role in front of the back four but I’m not so sure. Mikel is a strong option here and I wouldn’t be surprised if Essien’s pace and power was not given more freedom. He turned in 6 goals and 4 assists last term and I can see him building on this with a 8-10 goal return, particularly if Chelsea increase their attacking output as is the want of Abramovich. A decent Essien FPL bonus haul is also guaranteed of course, although Deco could take a slice of that this season.

Elsewhere in this bracket – Davies of Fulham is a dependable bargain who should maintain his output around the 5 goal and 8 assist mark that he achieved last term. City’s Elano, like Petrov could stuggle as Hughes shuffles his lineup and formation to accomodate “his” players over the season.

The Chelsea trio of Cole, Kalou and Ballack meanwhile, will all be hindered by a crowded Chelsea squad with Essien, Lampard and Deco in competition for places. For me, Joe Cole has the best potential but he’ll need to increase on the 29 starts of last season to the 35+ mark to have a chance of hitting the 10/10 stats he is well capable of achieving. At this point in time Scolari’s preferred lineup and formation is still in doubt and therefore Joe Cole is once again, a fantasy gamble and a short-term signing with favourable fixtures.

Tier Four

This tier is the home of some potential “sleepers” – in other words big hitters from fantasy seasons gone by who could awaken this season to provide some decent value. Blackburn’s Pedersen and Everton’s Arteta are almost classic examples of this; players who have pushed to the heights of tier two with 10 goals/10 assist seasons in the past. Both are available as mid-price options across the games this season and both could represent smart value as a result.

Arteta looks on paper to have the most potential. He stalled with just 1 goal and 7 assists last season, largely because he was struggling with an abdominal/stomach injury all year. An operation and rest in the summer has hopefully solved that issue and Arteta is already talking up his chances of having a “big” season this time around. Much will depend on Everton’s form of course and the problem here is that the signs aren’t great. Johnson’s departure and more significantly, Cahill’s injury, will hamper their early season form, although fixtures are so kind over the first 8 games you can still see Everton and Arteta doing okay without setting the world alight.

The one big plus for Arteta is the fact that he appears to have taken on penalty kicks, although it’s worth noting that Everton won just one single penalty in the Premiership last season, so it’s best not to be too blinded by this potential. There’s little doubt in my mind though that Arteta will improve on last season’s haul and should push back up to third tier at least with a 5+ 8+ return.

Mort Gamst Pedersen had a hugely disappointing season last time out and has recently acknowledged that himself. Again he is talking about an improvement this term after fetching just 4 goals and 4 assists last time out. Like Arteta, much depends on how Blackburn fair and again the omens early on aren’t great as Rovers attempt to adjust to the new boss Paul Ince.

The departure of Bentley, while a blow to Rovers as a whole, should see Pedersen assume more control at set-plays though, which should provide some boost to his output over the season. I’d expect a similar 5+, 8+ return from him and when fixtures run favourable for Rovers, he could well be a very effective signing for short-term periods.

Aside from these two sleepers, there are others in this tier who should all benefit from an increase in appearances. Bullard and Rosicky should earn more starts this season after suffering from injury last term, while Babel is set for an increased role which should see him top the 16 starts he got last season. Babel’s gain could well be Kuyt’s loss though, so although the Dutchman has been classified as a midfielder in some games, Kuyt could have his starts cut this term as Rafa increases his options in midfield.

As discussed earlier in this guide, more starts should translate to an increase in output for these three and I’ve got my eye on Arsenal’s Rosicky in particular. He notched an impressive 6 goals an 2 assists in just 15 starts last term. A 30+ season should see him edge close to 10 goals for the season which would threaten to push him into the third or even second tier.

The final player in this tier, Dempsey, is expected to drop significantly in output due simply to a lack of games. Hodgson has vastly improved his attacking options this season and Dempsey is unlikely to find himself employed as an emergency striker as he was last term. Indeed I’m not expecting more than 10 starts for the US international.

Tier Five

I see Sunderland’s Reid and Wigan’s Valencia as decent climbers in this tier. Reid should improve on last season’s return courtesy of 30+ starts. Just 1 goal and 2 assists were not major returns from 11 starts but 15 bonus points in the FPL emphasises his potential in that particular fantasy game. I can see him comfortably returning 8+ assists with possibly 5+ goals if he can get 30 games under his belt. FPL bonus should also continue to flow if Sunderland can earn some decent results.

Valencia is widely tipped to improve this season, having caught the eye of Alex Ferguson last time out. He started 30 games for Wigan and returned a modest 3 goals and 4 assists. However, Wigan were the lowest scorers in the division after Derby and that clearly hampered Valencia’s potential. A better season in attacking terms for Wigan should see Valencia kick on with a 5+ 8+ season. It’s worth watching for Wigan’s goal per game stat then – it shouldn’t be too hard to beat last season’s 0.89 goals a game average and Zaki’s arrival up front should help.

Elsewhere in this tier we could see an increase in Malbranque’s return if he is employed on the left of a lone striker in Keane’s 4-3-3/4-5-1 formation. The Frenchman is a consistent performer who, in previous seasons, has threatened a double figure stat for goals. A return of 4 goals and 6 assists in 35 starts for Spurs was a decent return but a more advanced role for Sunderland could see him beat that with a 5+ 8+ return.

Tier Six

Again this tier has some sleepers which should enjoy some decent increases in their output from last season. Bolton’s Taylor should get 30+ games on the left of Elmander in a 4-3-3/4-5-1 for Bolton which should see him return 5+ goals and possibly 10+ assists with his dominance at set-pieces.

His team mate Nolan could always been a perennial sleeper for several seasons now. Last time out he retuned 5 goals and 3 assists in 33 starts and while a better season for Bolton should see that increase slightly, Nolan’s box-to-box days where he threatened to hit double figures for goals, appear to be over.

Villa’s Sidwell and Everton’s Osman appear to offer the best value here. Sidwell could thrive with 35+ starts for Villa. He’s a player that has threatened to hit double figures in the goal department and did reach that target for Reading in their promotion year from the Championship. His first season for Reading saw him find the net on 4 occasions with 6 six assists thrown in, where as last season he made just 10 starts in all competitions for Chelsea. He won’t have any trouble in increasing his output this season then and he could push for a 8 goal 8 assist season in an attacking Villa side.

Osman is a player who is becoming more and more integral to Everton. Four goals and 2 assists last season is hardly eye catching stuff but he should improve on that this term and push up towards the 6 goal, 6 assist mark at least.

Milner is another who could join Osman and Sidwell in increasing his output. He’s enjoyed a good pre-season and Keegan is showing signs that he is willing to invest in him and hand him regular starts in the side. A season of 30+ starts will surely see Milner improve on the modest 2 goal, 2 assist haul of last season but that is seriously in question with Duff and Gutierrez surely in poll position for the wide roles. It looks like he needs a move to kick on.

The Unproven

The mention of Newcaslte’s Gutierrez takes me nicely onto my final tier the home of players that are mysteriously branded as unproven. These are players who have no or limited record in the Premiership either because they are from promoted clubs or new arrivals from foreign shores.

As a rule this group of players are always risky in fantasy terms, simply because they are unproven. They may not settle with pace of the Premiership, or life in England, or in the case of players from promoted sides, they might just be out of their depth. Avoiding the temptation to sign these players from the start, for bragging rights should they turn out to bargains or big hits, is not easy. But my advice (unless the pricing in your chosen game is ridiculously cheap) with these players is to “wait and see” let them play out a few games and if form is shown and points come in early, jump on the bandwagon.

Torres proved that when you get it right with these players, it can pay off with dividends but he and Berbatov before him, are rarities. Even Torres took time early on to adjust giving fantasy managers plenty of opportunity to make an assessment. He scored 3 goals in his first 8 appearances for Liverpool, 2 of which came against Derby. That’s by no means bad but after that he caught fire and averaged almost a goal-a-game in the Premiership.

The message here then when it comes to the likes of Deco and Modric, is not to panic. If you have your heart set on them, by all means take the plunge but a better strategy is often to prepare you side to allow you switch them in quickly and efficiently when they begin to find form and you can be confident of their role in their side. That’s particularly true when it comes to their chances of starting Premiership matches either side of European games – both Deco and Modric could well be subject to rotation in those matches.

The same applies to the less fashionable names here – Gutierrez, Riga and Blackburn’s YouTube star, Villanueva. Wait to assess their impact rather than take a risk on bringing them into your initial lineup. Opt for a reliable and proven point scorer of similar value to keep you ticking over until the time is right to swoop for a foreign import on form.

The strategy for promoted players is similar but the pay off can be bigger if you get it right due to their budget price tag. The likes of Lawrence at Stoke and Geovanni at Hull are likely to be pivotal to the success of their clubs but their output will be highly dependent on how their team-mates adjust to life in the Premiership. The same applies, to a lesser extent, to West Brom’s Brunt. Zoltan Gera at Fulham however, looks the best bet for me. He’s shown form in pre-season and is playing in a side that won’t need any adjustment time. Gera looks like a 6+ goal 6+ assist player who could even surpass the returns of team-mates Bullard and Davies.

What About Mr X?

There are obviously players that I’ve missed off my tier system here who could have blinding seasons – Richardson at Sunderland, Guthrie at Newcastle, De Ridder and/or Kapo at Wigan and Johnson at Man City immediately spring to mind, while someone like Pennant could flourish if he gets a move before the window closes.

Much as I’d like to, its impossible for me to analyse the likely return of every Premiership player (even though I probably have in my head 26 times over so far this summer). I’ll leave you to assess those players and indeed every player I’ve mentioned here because this guide isn’t all about my opinion on these players, it’s more about my methods for assessing them and the logic I apply. Hopefully you can take something from these methods and use them to weight your own logic against the player list to help you cut it down to something like a shortlist.

Beyond Goals and Assists

Before I conclude this guide, just a word about those Man-of-the-Match points and Bonus points for performance that you’ll find in some popular games. They are a factor that can change your thinking when it comes to placing players in tiers. We’ve already seen that Fabregas’ position is actually heavily influenced by his likelihood of Man-of-the-Match or Bonus points awards. Bentley and Essien are other players in this bracket and you only need filter my selection stats tables to find more.

Despite the evidence of last season, it’s difficult to predict the players who will reap the most of these points. New Premiership arrivals are possible candidates since they are often flavour of the month – Deco and Modric are both possibilities here. Similarly, Lawrence and Geovanni could benefit from being attacking, flair players in sides that lack those particular qualities. They will stand out when their sides gain victories and earn Man of the Match and Bonus points as a result.

When it comes to earning points from clean sheets – a factor in the Premier League Fantasy game, then it’s worth checking out my guide to selecting a Keeper and Defence for pointers on those sides who are likely to offer the biggest return.

There are also games like the Guardian and Yahoo which take into consideration raw stats generated by Opta like tackles, blocks and interceptions. These scoring methods help to bridge the gap between the big goals and assist scorers and the more defensively minded midfield players. In reality this needs a guide in itself but in general, the big goalscorers – Ronaldo, Lampard and Gerrard etc continue to come out on top but the likes of Butt at Newcastle and Noble at West Ham offer more value in these games than in others out there.

In Conclusion

As I bring this guide to a close, there are a couple of things I’d like to emphasise. Firstly, these are just my opinions on these players based on previous performance and form – take it all with a big pinch of salt. If this guide offers any value whatsoever, it’s that it is describes a process that can be used to select your midfield and also your strikers, as you’ll see in my next guide.

The process of placing players into tiers based on their previous points output is something that can really help see past the vast list of players and the prices you’ll need to juggle when constructing your side. As I’ve said, it also lets you carefully assess each player in turn, considering the factors I’ve mentioned here, plus of course their value in the game you are playing. You can apply the same principle any season, the names will change but the process remains the same.