The Scout Debate #8: Expensive Defenders?

This weeks Scout Debate tackles the issue of expensive defenders. With clean sheets harder to find these days, can you still justify spending large chunks of your fantasy budget on your back line? Here to discuss the issue are several of the site contributors for your consideration…

Akers: “Despite there being seemingly far fewer clean sheets up for grabs this season, I still see value in having a couple of expensive defenders. I should also state that I see value in having a couple of expensive defenders for clean sheets. Having defenders in your team in the hope of bagging goals is far too inconsistent and frustrating for my liking. Sure, an attacking threat is great, but clean sheets are bread and butter for defenders.

I think what’s hitting us fantasy managers hardest is the defensive form of Manchester United, Liverpool and Everton. We got to the point last season where we could blindly rely on them getting a cleanie more often than not. Personally, I think the two teams frustrating us in particular are United and Liverpool. At this point last season they had 11 clean sheets between them, more than one every other game, whereas so far this term they’ve amassed a rather pitiful 6. If they have any title ambitions they’ll have to improve at the back, and I predict they will.

However if you look elsewhere, Chelsea and Fulham are only one clean sheet down on this point last year, Villa have the same, Stoke are one up and Everton didn’t have any clean sheets after 9 games last season.

I’d advise not going overboard either way, and be prepared to jump on defences as soon as they start looking solid at the back, United especially.”

Andy: “Yes. ….Wait what? You want my reason? I’m not really sure how to put it out myself, but I will give it a try – I have definitely not given up my faith in the ability of the backline. Chelsea, for example, have actually taken 5 clean sheets from 10 games so far, and that includes two games against the highly offensive Spurs & Liverpool. While goals have been going in left, right and centre I don’t think that means we suddenly have a precedent for the next 28 gameweeks – there could be 10 clean sheets this weekend leaving many managers scrambling (shoulda, woulda, coulda I also admit…).

I like knowing if I get a sudden whim of “hey, I want to buy Patrice Evra!” I could trade around one of my defenders and be done with it – if say Mark wanted to do it (sorry boss, you’ve got a highly recognisable team to use as an example, that’s all) he’d have to wangle around his fantasy pennies and either plan in advance or fork over 4 of those precious points to do such a trade.

In the end I can probably see quite reasonably why people have reacted like they have – but it really isn’t for me, to quote a simple title of a song I like very much: “Absolute Balance” is where I play my game, I feel there’s more than enough talent about to meet every need in the fantasy spectrum while also being very much ready for change.”

greek fan: “I do have expensive defenders in my squad. Actually, I always had and I think I always will. I don’t know if it’s just habit or insecurity that make me stick with them, but I prefer to have two of them priced over 6.5M, one around 5 – 5.5M and two budget options.

My understanding is that even 7.5M is not such a hefty price for a defender who can score or produce goals, offering good chances for a Clean Sheet and carrying a decent potential for bonus points. I feel a lot better with my team selection too having them, as they are players someone can play every week, regardless their fixtures. While there’s a risk of a heavy defeat and of course less chances for attacking points when a budget defender faces a top team.

Even this season, when strikers seem to be prolific and score big, a look at the points table shows that the likes of Glen Johnson, Ashley Cole and Thomas Vermaelen offer point scoring ability similar to strikers at the same price range. Had someone opted for cheap only defenders, they could save 2 – 2.5M, for every one of them, but I can’t see added value if this money is spent for more expensive strikers or midfielders. I am not sure about this, but my feeling is that all the last years, in the end the overall highest scoring players come from various price ranges and there are defenders, midfielders and strikers in that list.”

SIR PAULOS: “My FPL season so far has been led by my belief that Top Four defences will come out on top (ie, it’s not been too clever up till now). I have, therefore, three expensive defenders, as I am convinced the clean sheets will soon be getting racked up at a respectable rate as in previous Premiership seasons. Last week, with both Chelsea and Liverpool not conceding, was hopefully an indicator of my eternal optimism.

I’m fine with my front three and reasonably satisfied with how I use my midfield, it’s just the men at the back I’m waiting on to produce the goods now. In saying that, I’m now altering the back line; Graham Alexander went out for James Collins as my one transfer this week, and that’s not necessarily because of the Villa double game week; he’s a lot cheaper than Richard Dunne, and offers the same sort of points return, too.

Realistically, with the way the season is panning out, it appears more and more like an act of folly on my part to show such continued faith in these defenders, and I guess a change in tactics/personnel is possibly round the corner, if I can only pluck up the courage to do so. My heart is still ruling my head at the moment, and my heart is telling me to hold fire on subbing them out, just yet.”

SUPERIOR BEING: “It doesn’t take a genius to notice that there has been a complete lack of clean sheets this season. This leads us to the question, how should I invest in my defence? At first, one might think that investing elsewhere is the best strategy but if you look at it another way; with clean sheets being so rare, it might be worth paying the premium for those few players who are actually doing the business.

As usual, I paid my database a visit to try and make things that little bit clearer…

In the 2007/08 Premier League season there were 18 defenders who started the season with a price tag of £6m or more (I excluded players who hadn’t appeared in at least half of their team’s matches). Out of the 18, 9 of them averaged 4 Points Per Game or more over the season. So in a nutshell, half of defenders in 2007/08 justified their high price tag.

This season there are 21 players who satisfy the same criteria, of them only 7 have at least 4 PPG at this point in time. Obviously, this is just a third of them.

The data indicates that investing in pricey defenders is not as profitable this season. There are however a handful of defenders who really are worth the price, mainly because they are an attacking threat. Until the big defences sort themselves out, my advice would be to listen to the old saying, “Attack is the best form of defence”.”

[As always, the topic of debate is always open to suggestions by emailing me at akers@fantasyfootballscout.co.uk]