The Watchlist – Leighton Baines

Everton’s superb 3-1 win over the Champions at Goodison has rightly raised the profile of David Moyes’ side. The Everton boss has been toiling away, somehow managing to eek out performances from a team constantly riddled by injuries and upheaval.

Despite the recent upturn in fortunes, attention from fantasy managers has been understandably sporadic. Louis Saha’s goals have put him forward for consideration, there have been brief flirtations with Tim Cahill, Diniyar Bilyaletdinov and even Landon Donovan, but with England’s left-back situation thrown into flux by the injury to Ashley Cole, it’s Leighton Baines who could now emerge as Everton’s most effective player and prime fantasy target for the last quarter of the season…

In many ways Baines has suffered from a reputation built on an outstanding 2008/09 season which saw him notch seven assists and a goal, along with a haul of 14 clean sheets. Those returns resulted in a price hike (6.5 in the Fantasy Premier League game) for this season which, with Everton struggling for form, saw him dismissed as an option by most. A run of three consecutive assists in gameweeks 4-6 demonstrated Baines’ potential but Everton’s defence, lacking the presence of Jagielka, struggled to just two clean sheets in their first 18 Premier League games.

Everton’s defence has shown signs of recovery. Four clean sheets in a run of five fixtures from gameweeks 20-24 brought some returns for Baines and his defensive colleagues, but that then took them into a run of games which saw them face Liverpool, Chelsea and on Saturday, Manchester United. Predictably Everton and Baines have failed to keep shut-outs in those games.

We shouldn’t be fooled by this blip however. Everton’s fixtures improve radically in the coming weeks. The trip to Spurs in gameweek 28 is followed by a run which surely promises strong returns at both end of the field. Trips to Birmingham, Villa and an un-scheduled fixture at Man City, look to be their toughest opponents right up until the end of the season.

Baines should bring in the defensive points in this run, particularly with Jagielka nearing fitness. With six clean sheets to his name at this point, I could well double that figure over the remaining 12 fixtures. More significantly Baines will surely go on adding to his tally of five assists so far this term. His supply from the left has become a key component of Everton’s attacking play. One look at the Premier League’s crossing statistics highlight that Baines is the only full-back who can get anywhere near matching the top suppliers from midfield.

Mikel Arteta’s return to the Everton lineup will reduce Baines’ potential from the dead-ball but his regular forays down the flank threaten to return at least another five assists if Everton can exploit their apparently easy run-in. With his price dropping to a more palatable 5.9 in the Fantasy Premier League game, I’d expect to see Baines’ 4% ownership stat rise considerably in the month ahead and early investors repaid for their foresight.