The Gameweek 38 Effect – Revisited
Filed under: Fantasy Football Tips, Statistics - Posted by: da Beeeez
A little over a year ago, I took a look at clean sheets and the final gameweek, identifying the possibility of a “gameweek 38″ effect. In a nutshell, the data suggested that in comparison to the season as a whole, the likelihood of a clean sheet may decrease in the season’s final gameweek.
Supporting this hypothesis, we found that the number of gameweek 38 clean sheets was less than the weekly average across eight of the last nine seasons (again, this was before last season wrapped up). Indeed, as we saw in last year’s article, when we calculated the average drop in clean sheets across the nine prior seasons, we saw almost a 24% decline in clean sheets in the final gameweek compared to the season average.
However, when the dust settled last year, the final gameweek failed to follow the pattern; we saw no less than seven clean sheets recorded in the final gameweek of 2009-10 – a figure above the season average of 5.76 per gameweek coming into the final gameweek. While last season’s results might cause some to dismiss the theory, the more rational response is that the numbers show trends but do not make guarantees. With this in mind, and even with last season’s (arguably atypical) results in the mix, the final gameweek has still produced a comparatively low number of clean sheets in eight of the last ten seasons.
To update the chart in last season’s article, the 2009-10 season and the averages from 2000-01 through 2009-10 are as follows (with the data on each of the other seasons listed in last year’s article):
| Season | Avg/GW | GW38 | % Difference |
| 2010-11 | 5.03 | ?? | ?? |
| 2009-10 | 5.82 | 7 | 20.36% |
| —— | ——– | ———— | |
| 2000-01 thru 2009-10 | 5.93 | 4.80 | -19.01% |
Looking to this year, and using data from the statistics page on the FPL site, the following stands out:
- If you’ve felt like clean sheets are hard to come by this season, it hasn’t been your imagination. The low mark for clean sheets during the last ten seasons was 2002-03, when there were 206 clean sheets, or an average of 5.42. The current total is 186 clean sheets, or a measly 5.03 clean sheets per gameweek.
- While Manchester United recorded the most clean sheets last season with 19, that tally was low and we have typically seen the leader get into the 20′s in most recent seasons. By contrast, Manchester City will finish this season with the most clean sheets, currently at only 17. The drop off this season becomes even more apparent as we go down the leaderboard, as only seven teams have reached double digits in clean sheets thus far (MCY, CHE, MNU, FUL, LIV, ARS, SUN). Not only have there been fewer clean sheets, but the reduction in these team totals has made it more difficult to predict where the clean sheets may fall.
- Goals for the season are up, again. Through 37 gameweeks, 1,031 goals have been scored in 2010-11, which amounts to 2.787 goals per game (by both teams combined). The total last year was the high mark for the last decade at 1,053 goals. With 10 games still to be played, that mark should be surpassed later today.
If you feel like betting against the trend, stack up on the defenders and take comfort in the knowledge that there has been one scoreless draw in three of the past four years. But, if you’re playing the odds, this is probably not the time for point hits to bring in defenders and, perhaps even more so than usual, this is the time to give preference to defenders playing out of position.
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“Recognizing that it's better to be lucky than good, da Beeeez often sleeps through the early games on the weekends...”
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May 22 at 10:33 am
seanie3 says:
took -4 hit on vdv for nzogbia
should I do another -4 hit on carroll for tevez? or should I keep carroll
Or should I put carroll on the bench and play barton
help, chasing a 12 point card
May 22 at 10:35 am
gatzi says:
More points hits = more risk = less points imo
May 22 at 10:33 am
markieffm says:
R Taylor or Kaboul ?
May 22 at 10:35 am
Wild Rover says:
NEW POST!
May 22 at 10:36 am
Omar Little says:
Lads,
Need to drop 1 of these Mids
Adam, Walcott, Lamps, YaYa, Barton
Any Thoughts?
May 22 at 10:37 am
MAD says:
Drop Yaya if you have Tevez, Barton if you don’t
May 22 at 10:36 am
r_5563 says:
I need to drop one of the following, any ides?
Lamps, NZogbia, Adam, Kuyt, Nani
May 22 at 10:36 am
Supersonic says:
who are the best 5 midfielders for today?
May 22 at 10:37 am
seanie3 says:
begovic or foster this week
also any update on silva and djourou’s injuries
May 22 at 10:38 am
Hegsmouth says:
Ok, I’m going to take a 4 point hit to take out Wellbeck and Vidic, and bring in bring in Evans and Berbatov. That will leave my team like this:
Hart (Harper)
Evans/Ivanovic/Kolarov (Djourou, Huth)
Adam/Barton/Y.Toure/Lampard/N’Zogbia
Berbatov(c)/Odemwingie/RVP
How’s that looking?
And I’m sure who to put as my 4th sub. Any advice? Thanks.
May 22 at 10:38 am
exciplex says:
N’zogbia, Modric or O’hara?
Thanks in advance!
May 22 at 10:47 am
Ramon Vega says:
zog
May 22 at 10:48 am
exciplex says:
Cheers.
May 22 at 10:38 am
Ramon Vega says:
should I do 8 pointer for sturridge to tevez (c)
VdV to adam
luiz to R taylor
trailing by 13 (make that 21 with hits)
he has berbs and adam and my only other differentials are suarez hageland and lampard
May 22 at 10:48 am
Ramon Vega says:
anyone?
May 22 at 10:40 am
Moza says:
Who to bench out of Silva/Sturridge/Dempsey/A Young?
May 22 at 10:41 am
Torres76 says:
Going with so far
Foster
Kolorav, Smalling, Huth
Adam, Kuyt, Nzog, Silva
RVP (C), Suarez, Tevez
Begovic, Maxi, Coleman, Luiz
Conceded 4 points – Lamps, Odem out Nzog and Tevez
Lead my work league by 51 points
Question: Shall I do Suarez for Berba? 4 point hit…..What do you all think?
May 22 at 10:51 am
kieranmac7 says:
ur up 51 so have nothing to lose. go for it if u want to increase ur points. would u not rather berba against a blackpool team that will leave themselves open at the back as they go all out to win? there will be goals in that game.
also which one of these wud u bench?
kuyt, lampard, nzogbia, silva, adam
berba, campbell, suarez
May 22 at 10:51 am
jumbo says:
No in my opinion but I think yes in most others, seems like everyone is expecting a Berbatov goal fest where as I’m not so sure it’ll happen. With Suarez you have a chance for goals + assists + bp’s, if Carroll doesn’t play Suarez would be even more likely to get points..
May 22 at 10:43 am
kieranmac7 says:
who to drop from these
kuyt, lampard, nzogbia, silva, adam
berba, campbell, suarez
think campbell cud get goals for blackpool. they will go all out
May 22 at 10:49 am
seanie3 says:
took -4 hit on vdv for nzogbia
should I do another -4 hit on carroll for tevez? or should I keep carroll
Or should I put carroll on the bench and play barton
chasing a 12 point card
May 22 at 10:55 am
rs197 says:
Need some advice, I’ve done my transfers this week dropped 4 points already, but my defence is currently luiz huth kolorov and carr, my other defender is out for the season. So am leading my league by 28 including the 4 points I’ve ready dropped. Should I take another 4 point hit to get my defence sorted, luiz and huth prob won’t play, so am think 3 at the back, who should I do? Or should I leave it? Help lol
May 22 at 11:08 am
markus808 says:
Luiz will play, and no hit for defender
May 22 at 11:01 am
Daddycool says:
Hi!
Not sure I can field enough defenders this week.
Already taken a hit to get a midfield/forward linup (no subs).
Vidic, Luiz, Huth, Djourou, Simpson.
Should I take a hit to ensure a lineup? Hangeland, Evra or Dawson maybe?
May 22 at 11:03 am
NA_Owlstars says:
Advice sought —— Sturridge or Toure? Who to start with?
May 22 at 11:16 am
Cesc's Arsenal DNA says:
Malouda or Walcott? thanks