January
13

The Numbers Game – Opportunity Knocks

Filed under: Members - Posted by: Chris Glover

Fantasy managers are always looking out for any indicators of a player’s future success. Some, like increased game time or a team’s new attacking philosophy make total sense. Others such as a player’s performance in a single Gameweek or past success against any given opponent are a bit of a stretch. The final category is filled with hunches, feelings and long shots, often fuelled by adult beverages, and usually leading to ill-advised Friday night transfer binges.

One way of predicting goals is to look at the amount of opportunities a player is receiving, and what he’s doing with them. For anyone who has even casually glanced at a game of football (never mind hardened Fantasy managers like yourself), that sounds obvious but it’s a factor which is consistently ignored in favour of ‘form’ and the fact a player had a ‘big’ game the previous week, even if his lone goal came about somewhat fortuitously.

Taking last year‘s data (for forwards only), we see a correlation of around 88% when comparing total shots to goals scored (excluding penalties) and 90% when comparing only shots on target. This can be used as a predictive tool as players who are getting chances, but not putting them away will, on average, start to improve over time assuming they continue to receive the same opportunities in the future.

There are two careful, and important, distinctions to be made though.

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About The Author

“Creator of the plfantasy blog, providing a stats focused approach to fantasy football. Exiled to Canada but still prefer my sports played on grass rather than ice.”

Chris Glover @plfantasy

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  1. The Mousa is Loosa
    • Reputation Level: Scout

    Who to captain, Bale or Rooney?

    1. Dynamic
      • Reputation Level: Scout

      Rooney.

      1. The Mousa is Loosa
        • Reputation Level: Scout

        I'm hesitant, I've been burned a few time by him so far....

  2. Tadpole86
    • Reputation Level: Scout

    January 13 at 8:29 pm
    TADPOLE86 SAYS:
    hi all! I need some help! this is my team:
    Sorensen/mignolet
    Richards/Enrique/Dawson/shotton/Simpson
    bale/Valencia/silva/benarfa/mclean
    ADe/rvp/aguerro
    considerations at the moment are downgrading a aguerro to upgrade benarfa or McLean. I could change benarfa to nani/mata and Valencia to Dempsey. downgrading ADE isn’t really an option as I got him for £8m. I would have 6.1 (nani) or 6.9 (mata) for the third striker. any other more imaginative ideas also welcome too!
    any thoughts very welcome!

  3. Dynamic
    • Reputation Level: Scout

    Will Evans play tomorrow?.

  4. Reacher
    • Reputation Level: Scout

    Evans and a spurs def or Jones and a cheap deender

    1. GunsnRoses
      • Reputation Level: Scout

      evans & spurs

  5. is_there_nanibody_out_there
    • Reputation Level: Scout

    Clichy & Smalling or Richards & Evans

    1. GunsnRoses
      • Reputation Level: Scout

      Richards >clichy
      evans=smalling
      so 2nd one IMO

  6. mr. inconspicuous
    • Reputation Level: Scout

    Will Given play this weekend? I currently have him over Vorm

    1. GunsnRoses
      • Reputation Level: Scout

      Rare chances to appear as a sub so you can keep him against Everton :D

  7. wigsandwags11
    • Reputation Level: Scout

    i want to WC but my team value plummets from 105.8 to 2.1 maybe just a few tweaks instead

    vorm
    Simpson R Taylor Louis en

    Nani Bale VDV Walters

    Adebay Sturridge RVP

    Westwood , de laet , Brown , De laet

    .8m in the bank 1 ft and a wild one

    VDV to Dempsey ? but i never like getting rid of the dutchman he's too good when he's fit
    prefer to sell Bale when VDV is fit and switch between the two but i only get 8.6 for Bale , maybe i should sit on it for one more week with spurs hoping to whip wolves today .

  8. champoz
    • Reputation Level: Scout

    Welcome to FFS Chris - great write-up!
    No offence to the scout team but this analysis is just what I needed during my WC week and ongoing.
    Midfielders next?

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Scout Picks

Team of the Season 2012/13

  • Jääskeläinen
  • Baines
  • Vertonghen
  • Zabaleta
  • Davies
  • Walcott
  • Mata
  • Michu
  • Bale
  • Suárez
  • van Persie
  • Evra
  • Cazorla
  • Benteke

Comments

Recent

  • Doosra - Garganega. Glug. says:

    I don't believe so - although it is like trying to second-guess the Kremlin ... »

  • Berbilly Gilmore says:

    I would think they'll do the same thing again. Last year showed how hectic Chelsea's sc… »

  • thetinkerman says:

    You can target the bandwagons with the transfers, but you're right about leaving yourself op… »

  • Lateriser12 says:

    Who would your lot rather face in the ICC final? Ind or Sri Lanka? »

  • Doosra - Garganega. Glug. says:

    Bugger. :-? »

  • nomar says:

    Oh dear as in 2 months before the season starts, or oh dear as in the paucity of decent Cardiff d… »

  • ronh says:

    Arsenal kept 4 CS in the last 6 EPL games... I think we need a new keeper for sure, so I'd … »

  • Doosra - Garganega. Glug. says:

    Well, you are half a Season behind me ... ;-) »

  • Doosra - Garganega. Glug. says:

    I beg your pardon!!! :-P »

  • Berbilly Gilmore says:

    Likely to be moved just like last season with the Super Cup, so GW3 –> GW1. »

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Goalkeepers

Player Club Factors
No Change Hart MCI B, Vs
Up Cech CHE B, Vs
Up Robles WIG C, Vs, £
No Change Lloris TOT C, Vs
No Change Foster WBA C, Vs
No Change Vorm SWA C, Vs
No Change Mignolet SUN B, Vs
No Change De Gea MUN A
Up Boruc SOT B, Vs, £
No Change Jääskeläinen WHM A
No Change Begovic STO C
No Change Howard EVE A

Defenders

Player Club Factors
No Change Kompany MCI B, Vs, Rest
No Change Vertonghen TOT A, Vs, Rest
Up Luiz CHE A, Vs, Rest
No Change Baines EVE A
Up Boyce WIG C, Vs, OoP
Down Bassong NOR B, Vs
Up McAuley WBA C, Vs
Down Johnson LIV B
Up Jones MUN A
No Change Sagna ARS B
Up Huth STO C
No Change Cuéllar SUN B, Vs, £
No Change Rangel SWA C, Vs
Up Clyne SOT B, Vs, £

Midfielders

Player Club Factors
Up Bale TOT A, Vs
No Change Mata CHE C, Vs, Rest
Up Walcott ARS C, OoP
Up Hazard CHE B, Vs, Rest, Inj
Up Maloney WIG B, Vs, £
No Change Y Touré MCI B, Vs
No Change Silva MCI B, Vs, Inj
No Change Fellaini EVE C
No Change Coutinho LIV B
Up Morrison WBA C, Vs
Down Cazorla ARS C
No Change Snodgrass NOR B
Up Kagawa MUN B, Rest
Up Walters STO B
Down Lallana SOT C, Vs
Down Sissoko NEW C

Forwards

Player Club Factors
Up Tevez MCI A, Vs, Rest
Up Koné WIG B, Vs, £
Down van Persie MUN A, Vs
Up Sturridge LIV B
Up Lukaku WBA B, Vs, Rest
Up Benteke AVL A
Down Aguero MCI B, Vs, Inj
Up Rodriguez SOT A, Vs, £
Up Defoe TOT B, Vs, Rest
Down Lambert SOT C, Vs
Down Rooney MUN C
Up Carroll WHM A, VsX
Up Ba CHE C, Vs, Rest
Down Berbatov FUL C
Up Cissé NEW B
Down Remy QPR B

Selection Factors

A, B, C Current Form
Vs Favourable Fixtures
VsX Unfavourable Fixtures
Rest Rotation Risk
Inj Injured/Returning from Injury
OoP Out of Position
£ Potential Bargain
Sus Suspended/Near Suspension

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