January
13

The Numbers Game – Opportunity Knocks

Filed under: Members - Posted by: Chris Glover

Fantasy managers are always looking out for any indicators of a player’s future success. Some, like increased game time or a team’s new attacking philosophy make total sense. Others such as a player’s performance in a single Gameweek or past success against any given opponent are a bit of a stretch. The final category is filled with hunches, feelings and long shots, often fuelled by adult beverages, and usually leading to ill-advised Friday night transfer binges.

One way of predicting goals is to look at the amount of opportunities a player is receiving, and what he’s doing with them. For anyone who has even casually glanced at a game of football (never mind hardened Fantasy managers like yourself), that sounds obvious but it’s a factor which is consistently ignored in favour of ‘form’ and the fact a player had a ‘big’ game the previous week, even if his lone goal came about somewhat fortuitously.

Taking last year‘s data (for forwards only), we see a correlation of around 88% when comparing total shots to goals scored (excluding penalties) and 90% when comparing only shots on target. This can be used as a predictive tool as players who are getting chances, but not putting them away will, on average, start to improve over time assuming they continue to receive the same opportunities in the future.

There are two careful, and important, distinctions to be made though.

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About The Author

“Creator of the plfantasy blog, providing a stats focused approach to fantasy football. Exiled to Canada but still prefer my sports played on grass rather than ice.”

Chris Glover @plfantasy

> See all posts by this author

  1. Who to captain, Bale or Rooney?

    • 3 years, 1 month ago
    1. Rooney.

      • 3 years, 1 month ago
      1. I'm hesitant, I've been burned a few time by him so far....

        • 3 years, 1 month ago
  2. January 13 at 8:29 pm
    TADPOLE86 SAYS:
    hi all! I need some help! this is my team:
    Sorensen/mignolet
    Richards/Enrique/Dawson/shotton/Simpson
    bale/Valencia/silva/benarfa/mclean
    ADe/rvp/aguerro
    considerations at the moment are downgrading a aguerro to upgrade benarfa or McLean. I could change benarfa to nani/mata and Valencia to Dempsey. downgrading ADE isn’t really an option as I got him for £8m. I would have 6.1 (nani) or 6.9 (mata) for the third striker. any other more imaginative ideas also welcome too!
    any thoughts very welcome!

    • 3 years, 1 month ago
  3. Will Evans play tomorrow?.

    • 3 years, 1 month ago
  4. Evans and a spurs def or Jones and a cheap deender

    • 3 years, 1 month ago
    1. evans & spurs

      • 3 years, 1 month ago
  5. Clichy & Smalling or Richards & Evans

    • 3 years, 1 month ago
    1. Richards >clichy
      evans=smalling
      so 2nd one IMO

      • 3 years, 1 month ago
  6. Will Given play this weekend? I currently have him over Vorm

    • 3 years, 1 month ago
    1. Rare chances to appear as a sub so you can keep him against Everton :D

      • 3 years, 1 month ago
  7. i want to WC but my team value plummets from 105.8 to 2.1 maybe just a few tweaks instead

    vorm
    Simpson R Taylor Louis en

    Nani Bale VDV Walters

    Adebay Sturridge RVP

    Westwood , de laet , Brown , De laet

    .8m in the bank 1 ft and a wild one

    VDV to Dempsey ? but i never like getting rid of the dutchman he's too good when he's fit
    prefer to sell Bale when VDV is fit and switch between the two but i only get 8.6 for Bale , maybe i should sit on it for one more week with spurs hoping to whip wolves today .

    • 3 years, 1 month ago
  8. Welcome to FFS Chris - great write-up!
    No offence to the scout team but this analysis is just what I needed during my WC week and ongoing.
    Midfielders next?

    • 3 years, 1 month ago

Scout Picks

For Gameweek 28

  • Lloris
  • Ivanovic
  • Skrtel
  • Clichy
  • Eriksen
  • Hazard
  • Sterling
  • Mane
  • Austin
  • Kane
  • Aguero
  • Yun
  • Ozil
  • Rooney

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Fixture Ticker

The Watchlist

Goalkeepers

Last updated: 2 Mar, 2015 11:08am
Player Club Factors
Up Foster WBA A, Vs
Down Pantilimon SUN B, Vs
No Change Ospina ARS B
Up Lloris TOT C, Vs
Down Hart MCI C, Vs
Up Green QPR C, Vs
Down Guzan AVL C, Vs
Up Speroni CPL C

Defenders

Last updated: 2 Mar, 2015 2:23pm
Player Club Factors
Up Ivanovic CHE A
No Change Bellerín ARS A, Rest, £
Up Dawson WBA A, Vs, £
Up Rose TOT B, Vs, Rest, £
Up Naughton SWA B, Vs, £
Up Yun QPR C, Vs, £
Down Bertrand SOT C
Down Réveillere SUN B, Vs, £
Down Kompany MCI C, Vs
Down Wollscheid STO C
Down Skrtel LIV B
Down Cresswell WHM C, VsX
Up Dann CPL C, Vs
Down Vlaar AVL C, Vs, Inj

Midfielders

Last updated: 2 Mar, 2015 11:33am
Player Club Factors
Up Hazard CHE A
No Change Silva MCI A, Vs
Up Eriksen TOT C, Vs
Up Ozil ARS A, Vs
Up Sterling LIV B, VsX
Down Sánchez ARS C, Vs
Up Phillips QPR B, Vs
Up Puncheon CPL B, VsX
Down Mane SOT C, Vs
No Change Sinclair AVL B, Vs, £
Down Walters STO B
Down Di María MUN B
Down Downing WHM C
Up Ki SWA B, Vs

Forwards

Last updated: 5 Mar, 2015 8:41pm
Player Club Factors
No Change Aguero MCI A, Vs
Up Kane TOT A, Vs
Up Austin QPR B, Vs
Down Giroud ARS B, Vs
Up Rooney MUN B
Down Diego Costa CHE C
Down NDoye HUL B, £
Up Cissé NEW B, Vs, £, Sus
Up Gomis SWA C, Vs
Down Sturridge LIV C, VsX, Rest
Down Lukaku EVE C
No Change Defoe SUN C
Up Benteke AVL C, Vs
Down Berahino WBA B

Selection Factors

A, B, C Current Form
Vs Favourable Fixtures
VsX Unfavourable Fixtures
Rest Rotation Risk
Inj Injured/Returning from Injury
OoP Out of Position
£ Potential Bargain
Sus Suspended/Near Suspension

The Suspension Tightrope

Player Team YC
Clark AVL 9
Fábregas CHE 9
Bardsley STO 9
Larsson SUN 9
Taylor SWA 9
Cleverley AVL 8
Diego Costa CHE 8
Besic EVE 8
Livermore HUL 8
Gerrard LIV 8
Barton QPR 8
Pellè SOT 8
Wanyama SOT 8
Reid WHM 8
Chambers ARS 7
Agbonlahor AVL 7
Okore AVL 7
Matic CHE 7
Naismith EVE 7
Henderson LIV 7
Skrtel LIV 7
Kompany MCI 7
Fernandinho MCI 7
Rojo MUN 7
Janmaat NEW 7
Dunne QPR 7
Fonte SOT 7
Schneiderlin SOT 7
Shelvey SWA 7
Mason TOT 7
Gardner WBA 7

“Last year was quite open for me, I was in good positions, but I was quite lucky because I was getting free kicks and some penalties as well.”

Yaya Toure Manchester City midfielder