The Captain Poll – Gameweek Thirty Seven
Filed under: Site Features - Posted by: Andy
The penultimate Gameweek of the season kicks off tomorrow. After last week’s bumper double header, Fantasy managers are fast running out of time to make up their mini-league differences. The Captaincy armband is, more than ever, a vital choice…
A familiar name has run away with our poll thus far. Robin Van Persie will have surely claimed the armband more than any other player this season and yet, after a prolonged dry spell, confidence was beginning to wane. The tap-in at Stoke, coupled with a favourable fixture appears to have turned the tide back his way.
After scoring his first goal from open play in eight fixtures at the Britannia, the Arsenal skipper is back on track to win the Premier League golden boot and keep his side in check for third spot. A home game against a safe and stuttering Norwich outfit adds plenty of weight to the argument for Van Persie to be the top candidate.
With the Arsenal fixture being the sole Saturday match-up (an early kick-off thanks to tube works and the FA Cup Final) those who back Robin to build on his recent showing have the opportunity to get their Gameweek rolling early, although should the Dutchman fall flat, Sunday promises to be an uncomfortable experience.
With a proportion of Fantasy managers shedding Van Persie for double Gameweek temptations, there’s a tough decision to be made. While the Dutchman’s potential is strong, there’s clearly a differential to be had for those brave enough to look elsewhere.
Wayne Rooney is an obvious plan B. There’s a case to be made for United’s attacking players given their home fixture with Swansea and the need to attack to help close the goal difference on rivals City.
With Robert Mancini’s side kicking off early at Newcastle on Sunday, United will take to the Old Trafford pitch knowing the scale of their task. A win for City and it will be interesting to see how United react given that City will be eyeing up a home clash with QPR on the final day. Sir Alex Ferguson has played down the goal difference factor but, should City squeak a narrow win, then United will surely have to go for the throat against the Swans rather than write the title off.
Papiss Cisse and Nikica Jelavic rounds out a strong trio of striker alternatives to the Van Persie option. The latter looking the more viable route: the Croatian striker has brought a goalscoring zest that Everton fans have been craving for years and is up against a Wolves side with nothing but pride to play for. Everton goals look assured and that normally has Jelavic getting in on the act.
As for Cisse, he’ll face a City defence hell-bent on keeping him out to allow both Carlos Tevez and Sergio Aguero the chance to weave their magic. The Senegal striker looks almost impossible to stop right now, however, his strike at Chelsea demonstrating that he’s a threat from all angles. It would still be a brave decision to back Cisse over the top three poll candidates, given City’s determination and defensive resolve.
A risk might be a necessity at this stage, however, and while Cisse fits the bill there are clearly other candidates to consider. Incredibly, Victor Moses has demanded more transfer attention than any other player so far in the Gameweek. His form, coupled with Wigan’s own confidence and remaining fixtures, has seen him worked into over 50,000 squads so far this week. Moses would make an unlikely Gameweek captain but, for those desperate to go out on a limb, he’s clearly an option to explore.
Goals from midfield perhaps look more likely from Tottenham’s Rafael Van der Vaart and Fulham’s Clint Dempsey. Both have obliging Sunday fixtures. Van der Vaart goes to Villa Park having delivered on his double Gameweek promise and will surely carry the biggest goal threat to the home defence. Dempsey has stuttered since the return of Pavel Pogrebnyak but, similarly, will remain a major threat to a hopelessly erratic Sunderland back four.
While that pairing have struggled to make an impression in our poll, it’s perhaps even more surprising to see a lack of support for City’s strikers. City surely have to get three points at Newcastle and, in Aguero, they have a striker who has scored five goals in the last four, including three goals in his last two away trips. It seems certain that Mancini will have to look for a couple of goals from Sunday’s trip and Aguero looks well placed to be amongst them. While United’s attacking assets get the attention, perhaps City’s strikers could present the most viable alternative to Van Persie for those seeking something a little different.
Our Captain’s Poll will run and run in the middle menu of the Homepage to see where the lay of the land is as the deadline approaches.
About The Author
“I eat stickers all the time dude.”
Andy @ffscout_andy
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Recent Comments
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Exactly. » -
Thanks! I thought it was over when Bale scored at the end, but bonus points levelled things out » -
I'm more interested in Jay Rodriguez. His price will rise a bit but he should still be in 3rd striker territory » -
You can bet that team will cost a lot more than £100m next season! And if I were to write this post in a year's time… »
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BS? ;-) » -
*is what i would have replied if i was offered chief moderator :wink: » -
Is 2.6m a large enough sample? :D » -
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May 4 at 12:34 pm
Gatsby says:
Richards > ____?
have verm, caulker, evans, cahill
May 4 at 12:36 pm
ajay_kl says:
walker or kaboul
May 4 at 12:40 pm
ISHV says:
Verm.
May 4 at 12:40 pm
jayzico says:
or baines if fit
May 4 at 12:36 pm
FORCA INTER says:
my defence sucks so badly
Turner,Caulker,Evans,Cahill and Kompany
4pts hit for defender???does it worth it?
May 4 at 12:42 pm
jayzico says:
i just took a hit for verm. so i hope so
May 4 at 12:42 pm
EpicFAIL - Sporting Lisbon RIP </3 AVFC <3 says:
Not for me.
May 4 at 12:43 pm
ISHV says:
Yes.
May 4 at 12:36 pm
Optimus says:
http://www.balls.ie/2012/05/03.....reat-year/
May 4 at 12:37 pm
udit - It's our problem freee Philosophy. says:
May 4 at 12:38 pm
Bad Pen says:
Haha brilliant.
May 4 at 12:39 pm
Spike says:
May 4 at 12:43 pm
EpicFAIL - Sporting Lisbon RIP </3 AVFC <3 says:
Ahaa
May 4 at 12:37 pm
unitednations says:
So my team for gw37:
Bogdan
mcauly huth turner
bale barfa demps pienaar
rvp rooney adebayor
bench: mignolet siggy caulker evans
SO my defense is ultra crap and i have 1FT, is it worth taking a 4 point hit for a defender/gk
A: Mignolet >>> kenny?…dont know any other keeper for 4.4
B: evans >>> gallas/hibbert and then take it mignolet next week
C: turner >>> any defender upto 4.2?
Pls help:)
May 4 at 12:39 pm
LOCO ABREU says:
play bogdan. and B (gallas) imo.
May 4 at 12:38 pm
LOCO ABREU says:
Sorry for repost! Thinking in a -8hit to attack my league rivals. BALE>NANI, AGUERO>CHICO, EVANS>KABOUL.
third transfer is needed to open a man united spot,(I also own Rooney). is a -4 but it gives me a good defender for the two finals GWs also.
My Atack will be Rooney,CHICO and RVP!
What you think please?too risky?
May 4 at 12:39 pm
roscola says:
I’ll repost my lost reply too:
I like it – aggressive. But if the City beat Newcastle you will definitely want Aguero back for the next gameweek (QPR) – would you be able to afford that?
May 4 at 12:44 pm
LOCO ABREU says:
i can do it selling VDV instead of Bale.
May 4 at 12:41 pm
Fackinell says:
Bale – Nani is the week spot.
Valencia will outscore Nani and his form is poor currently. Evans yes and Agro>Chico is good if you’re chasing IMO
May 4 at 12:43 pm
Hate that rotation says:
Nani 2 goals in 3 games is pretty good form.
May 4 at 12:46 pm
Fackinell says:
Did you watch the games?
I guess in fantasy terms it only matters what points you score so you’re right – but he has more chance of having a stinker than double figures IMO.
May 4 at 12:48 pm
Hate that rotation says:
Yeah I watched the games. He looked pretty decent apart from the city game where everyone sucked.
May 4 at 12:45 pm
frankie_fryer is changing to "50 eggs in an hour" says:
i would repost my reply but i cant remember it and cant be bothered going back
May 4 at 12:38 pm
Frankie_fryer says: .."get the zadok the priest cd delivered to fir park now you nutty mr blatter says:
damn you third muffin, stop looking at me
May 4 at 12:42 pm
Fratboy - Golden Boot - Van Persie 28, Rooney 26, Aguero 22 says:
May 4 at 1:04 pm
DaveZubie says:
MMMmmmmm muffins *chomp* *chomp*
May 4 at 12:38 pm
Merlinho says:
Why all the Chicarito love all of a sudden?
May 4 at 12:39 pm
FORCA INTER says:
another crazy bandwagon
maybe could payoff like with Tevez
but i am not so sure
May 4 at 12:40 pm
Ryan says:
Because he is almost certain to start and lead the line due to the Welbeck injury
May 4 at 12:44 pm
Optimus says:
could bite some if fergie goes with roo up top alone with young or nani behind..could happen
May 4 at 12:47 pm
Ryan says:
True. 4-3-3?
May 4 at 12:40 pm
Hate that rotation says:
Wellbeck out for Swansea game.
May 4 at 12:44 pm
EpicFAIL - Sporting Lisbon RIP </3 AVFC <3 says:
Primark version of Rooney.
May 4 at 12:53 pm
Goose says:
So like something bought from Primark, its good for one week.
May 4 at 12:56 pm
EpicFAIL - Sporting Lisbon RIP </3 AVFC <3 says:
Pretty much, but also expect to be disappointed.
May 4 at 12:39 pm
Fackinell says:
Got one response on this – any other thoughts?
Really need help this week guy’s:
Well ahead in mini league & trying to break in to top 100 over the next two weeks. 5 changes last week paid off in terms of NET points but clearly need to be more conservative this week.
A. Krul – Vorm Cannot afford to change keepers so thinking Krul for save points?
B. Terry – Hibbert – Simpson inj – J Evans out – Cahill out so thinking must tfr one Cahill for Kompany?
C. Dempsey – Bale – Valencia – VDV – B’arfa sub – No changes I reckon OR one of the Tot players?
D. RVP – Aguero – Jelavic Thinking RVP Captain – Is it worth swapping Agro for Roonpig?
Money not an issue….
May 4 at 12:50 pm
Nibbsy says:
A Krul
B Yes I would make a tfr – Cahill seems like best for the chop
C No changes
D Tough one, Aguero has QPR next week so over the 2 weeks it may not be worth a hit
May 4 at 12:53 pm
Fackinell says:
Thanks – was about to give up!
Good point on Aguero. It’s a coin flip.
I think Rooney will score more over two games but will it be more than the 4 point hit?
Thanks again…
May 4 at 12:57 pm
Nibbsy says:
Hard to call really. If your aim is higher overall rank though you have to take a risk I think, and Aguero is probably the bigger differential. It’s make or break now so I’d probably stick with Aguero and pray.
May 4 at 12:51 pm
Fackinell says:
I’d stop posting this as no one seems to give a F**K
May 4 at 12:40 pm
ISHV says:
Schwarzer
Walker Vermaelen Hibbert
Nani VDV Pienaar Dempsey
Cisse RVP (c) Jelavic (v)
Bench
Vorm Moses Cahill Evans
Should I play Moses ahead of Cisse?
May 4 at 12:43 pm
Fackinell says:
Yes
May 4 at 12:44 pm
Ryan says:
Terrible decision to have to make. I hope you didn’t bring in Moses this week.
I’d play Cisse
May 4 at 12:46 pm
ISHV says:
Yes, unfortunately yes. Now I have a decision to make
May 4 at 12:47 pm
Ryan says:
Very very silly
May 4 at 12:51 pm
ISHV says:
Yeah, but I actually did that to afford Nani. Didn’t have the courage to go without a United cover this week.
May 4 at 12:55 pm
Ryan says:
Yeah I would have sold either Dempsey or cisse for your United cover. You always have to consider your bench. Anyway, good luck with your decision.
May 4 at 1:14 pm
Nick says:
I’d play Cisse
May 4 at 12:42 pm
keotes says:
Which is better?
A) Cisse -> Rooney
B) Siggy -> Nani
front 8:
VDV, Bale, Valencia, Dempsey, Siggy,
RVP, Jelavic, Cisse
Cheers
May 4 at 12:44 pm
Fackinell says:
A – by a country mile.
You have Valencia and Nani is pants at the moment
May 4 at 12:44 pm
ludi says:
Cisse->Rooney and bench Siggy
May 4 at 12:45 pm
Ryan says:
B) is plain ridiculous as it means you would have to play 5 midfielders. So its A) for me, do consider Hernandez if you want a differential though
May 4 at 12:47 pm
keotes says:
Nothing wrong with Stacking midfield
May 4 at 12:49 pm
Ryan says:
No there is something wrong with it. It means you will have to bench Cisse which is another terrible idea.
May 4 at 12:46 pm
LarryMurphy says:
Cisse to Rooney. Nani is one of those players…he’s hot and cold, can play a stormer or can be completely ineffective i.e vs Manchester City so I’d go with Rooney..have a feeling he could play a blinder this weekend
May 4 at 12:54 pm
ISHV says:
I did B, I’m kinda regretting it.
May 4 at 12:43 pm
ROBERTO MANKINI says:
Worth taking a hit to dump JEvans for RFerdinand/ShawX/Kaboul?
My current defenders are Vermaelen, JEvans, Enrique, Walker, Caulker. and last 4 are all either injured, out or have a hard fixture….
May 4 at 12:49 pm
LarryMurphy says:
I’m going to play J Evans and just let the autosub do it’s job. You’d never know with Sir Alex
May 4 at 12:44 pm
URINDANGER - Blue moon rising says:
Hernandez starts, Rooney drops deeper. I don’t have any hard statistical data to back this up, but I know I am right.
May 4 at 12:46 pm
Ryan says:
You are right in a general sense. However i suspect United will go all out attack so I don’t think it will be the case this time around.
May 4 at 12:46 pm
frankie_fryer is changing to "50 eggs in an hour" says:
you are right, but question is will they keep that style needing so many goals
May 4 at 12:49 pm
Hate that rotation says:
Fergie said that catching city on goal difference is impossible.
May 4 at 12:50 pm
URINDANGER - Blue moon rising says:
United are thinking about winning their last two games. End of. 1-0 from both those games would do them nicely I’d bet.
May 4 at 12:53 pm
Ryan says:
I doubt United will get all cagy. If they find themselves scoring for fun they won’t lift their foot off the pedal. I’m sure they will continue to be eager for goals as the game progresses without being silly about it as they did in their massive 6-1 defeat to Citeh
May 4 at 12:46 pm
Mac says:
With the standard level of Moyes uncertainty regarding Baines anybody prepared to take the plunge or best avoided?
May 4 at 12:55 pm
jayzico says:
Im playing baines. Ive waited long enough for the differential paying off. that said he’ll prob play a 10 min cameo
May 4 at 1:16 pm
Requiem for a Dream says:
he will start i m sure
May 4 at 12:46 pm
Nibbsy says:
A Tevez – Rooney (no hit)
B Tevez – RVP & Bale – Moses (-4)
C Torres – RVP/Rooney & Bale – Moses (-4)
Already have VDV so not too bothered about losing Bale. Think Moses could well outscore him anyway.
May 4 at 12:47 pm
EpicFAIL - Sporting Lisbon RIP </3 AVFC <3 says:
I wouldn’t lose Bale for a hit, no chance.
May 4 at 12:52 pm
Nibbsy says:
So A then?
May 4 at 12:48 pm
URINDANGER - Blue moon rising says:
I’m keeping Tevez. Don’t know why one would drop him. Looked on top of his game against United. Aguero is probably the better option from City though. I plan to have both for 38.
May 4 at 12:53 pm
Nibbsy says:
Rooney has the better fixture this week though surely? I could then get Aguero in for Rooney next week.
May 4 at 12:57 pm
URINDANGER - Blue moon rising says:
Tevez +4 vs. Rooney. I dunno, I think that’s tight.
May 4 at 12:59 pm
Nibbsy says:
Fair play. Chasing a 30 point lead. Maybe I should just save a transfer to go all out on differentials next week?
May 4 at 12:49 pm
Kostja says:
Moses is not better than Bale
May 4 at 12:51 pm
Nibbsy says:
No but he could score better in fantasy football this week, that’s all I’m saying.
May 4 at 12:47 pm
FORCA INTER says:
who will be top goalscorer this season??
RVP or Rooney
May 4 at 12:48 pm
Hate that rotation says:
RVP
May 4 at 12:49 pm
tosey says:
u dont think suarez can still do it?
May 4 at 12:50 pm
FORCA INTER says:
i am not drunk today
May 4 at 12:50 pm
Fackinell says:
RVP by one goal
May 4 at 12:48 pm
Steel Arm says:
What happened to Walker?
May 4 at 12:49 pm
Spike says:
He’s got a bruised toe but will play according to Sky Sport
May 4 at 12:49 pm
Rukawa says:
toe injury but should be back after injected
May 4 at 12:50 pm
Steel Arm says:
Thanks Guys
Evans Out then…
May 4 at 12:48 pm
Now back to the conspiracy... says:
Utd forums are a dark place at the moment, they’ve all given up. Most of their predicted teams has Berbatov over Hernandez aswell…
May 4 at 12:50 pm
FORCA INTER says:
if berba starts then i fancy UTD to goes crazy and score at least 5-6 goals against SWA
can’t say same for team with Chiko
May 4 at 12:50 pm
Rukawa says:
Chicharito scored at Liberty ?
May 4 at 12:51 pm
Now back to the conspiracy... says:
And? Berbatov scored 3 against Wigan and didn’t play a minute against them in the 2nd game.
May 4 at 12:50 pm
EpicFAIL - Sporting Lisbon RIP </3 AVFC <3 says:
I’d play Berbs over Hernandez too, but I don’t see Fergie doing it.
May 4 at 12:52 pm
Spike says:
this
May 4 at 12:50 pm
Spike says:
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him involved or even start !!
May 4 at 12:51 pm
Ryan says:
Hmm that is bizarre. TBF Berba is capable of big goal hauls. And United certainly need plenty of goals. The more pragmatic choice would be Hernandez though
May 4 at 12:54 pm
Hate that rotation says:
We just need to win, goal difference is too much catch up. Hope for Newcastle to draw/win.
May 4 at 12:58 pm
Ryan says:
I think United will know the result before they play. No doubt this will have a bearing on how they play. They can’t afford to relay on QPR causing an upset in GW38
May 4 at 12:54 pm
Spike says:
I think Berba can hold the ball up better but I think you maybe right about Chico
May 4 at 12:53 pm
Goose says:
Please dont tempt me. (actually do)
May 4 at 12:55 pm
Now back to the conspiracy... says:
I wanted Hernandez, no idea what to do now, too many options as to what the Utd team could be.
May 4 at 12:57 pm
Goose says:
Hmm, id love to be brave enough to get Berba and then he starts, it would be glorious. If Fergie has any sense he’ll start him.
May 4 at 12:54 pm
udit - It's our problem freee Philosophy. says:
Can’t see it happening, might be good though. As to why they’ve given up is beyond me
May 4 at 12:50 pm
griff says:
Narrowed it down to 3 potential moves for this week:
JEvans-> Verm
Bale -> Valencia
Cisse -> RPV
Which would you do, and would you do more than 1 for -4?
May 4 at 12:51 pm
Mac says:
Not B.
I dont mind either of the the other two – depends on the rest of you defence.
May 4 at 12:53 pm
griff says:
Defence looks a bit wanky- Kompany, Simpson, Warnock and Jose Enrique
May 4 at 12:52 pm
manehi says:
I’m doing Cisse -> RVP. Would also do Evans -> Verm for a hit if I could afford it.
May 4 at 12:54 pm
Hay Number 2 says:
I did:
Simpson>>>>Verm
Cisse>>>>RVP
So I say take a hit IMO.
May 4 at 12:55 pm
Steel Arm says:
1st one i would do
Goal potential + CS for Verm
May 4 at 12:57 pm
Spike says:
1 or 3 or both imo
May 4 at 12:51 pm
Rukawa says:
Siggy –> Piernaar worth 4p hit?
May 4 at 12:52 pm
Rukawa says:
otherwise i can play and bench Siggy ( Play Sezz already)
May 4 at 12:55 pm
Rukawa says:
* play Mc Clean
May 4 at 12:54 pm
URINDANGER - Blue moon rising says:
Have same dilemma, unsure what to do. Siggy gets 2 minimum, and I wouldn’t bet against Swansea scoring at Old T either.
May 4 at 12:52 pm
Hay Number 2 says:
Hi gents,
My defence is currently:
Verm Walker Evans (Turner) (Caulker)
I have already taken -4 to get verm in what should I do:
a) Play Turner/Caulker if so which?
b) Take another hit
May 4 at 12:57 pm
unoaime says:
Honestly i’d just play Turner. I don’t expect many cleansheets at all in these last 2 games and for me it’s about stocking up with defenders with likely attacking returns or just make sure you can field 3.
May 4 at 1:00 pm
Hay Number 2 says:
Cheers dude! I was leaning that way!
May 4 at 12:53 pm
jimski says:
I need 5 (FIVE) good reasons that Cisse is no longer necessary. Please, guys, help me feel good about shipping him for an RVP, Rooney, Jelly combo….
May 4 at 12:55 pm
tosey says:
5 good reasons?
hart, kompany, clichy, zabaleta, lescott
May 4 at 1:03 pm
Lucky says:
He said good reasons. That’s only 4
May 4 at 1:38 pm
jimski says:
Heh
May 4 at 12:55 pm
Goose says:
1. If you and everyone else gets rid then i dont lose out by not having him when he inevitably scores.
May 4 at 12:55 pm
URINDANGER - Blue moon rising says:
I did Cissé >>> KDavies. I think City will keep us scoreless at St. James.
May 4 at 12:58 pm
Mac says:
Seriously?
May 4 at 12:56 pm
Rukawa says:
RVP and Jelly have good fixtures last 2 games
May 4 at 12:57 pm
udit - It's our problem freee Philosophy. says:
1).He’s crazy
2).He picks up red cards for fun
3).Tough fixtures
4).All the fans hate him
5).He has an extremely annoying name.
May 4 at 12:58 pm
EpicFAIL - Sporting Lisbon RIP </3 AVFC <3 says:
He scores when he wants, but he probably doesn’t want to score this week.
May 4 at 1:05 pm
Ryan says:
1. He can’t score against good teams, his fixtures are just tooo tough
2. City are soo much better than Newcastle and their defense is just the best
3. Newcastle are really just an average team and they will be found out against a star studded city
4. Cisse really isn’t that good
5. And because Cisse isn’t that good he will probably be benched anyway
May 4 at 1:12 pm
udit - It's our problem freee Philosophy. says:
May 4 at 1:13 pm
Ryan says:
Sarcasm Udit
May 4 at 1:39 pm
jimski says:
You’re not helping
May 4 at 12:55 pm
Pineybyrne says:
Cahill? Are we thinkin he’ll be starting gentlemen?
May 4 at 12:56 pm
URINDANGER - Blue moon rising says:
Which one?
May 4 at 12:57 pm
Pineybyrne says:
Gary “I’m at a big club now” Cahill.
May 4 at 12:58 pm
udit - It's our problem freee Philosophy. says:
No, he;s prob out for the season.
May 4 at 12:57 pm
udit - It's our problem freee Philosophy. says:
Which one?
May 4 at 1:00 pm
Spike says:
Cahill and Luiz not starting according to Sky Sports News
May 4 at 12:57 pm
tangtastic says:
Didn’t realise the Arsenal game was the only fixture on Saturday.. early fixture too.
Suddenly I’m rethinking my armband selection.. can someone please convince me that the early fixture curse myth, is just a myth?
May 4 at 12:58 pm
URINDANGER - Blue moon rising says:
It’s a myth.
May 4 at 12:58 pm
tosey says:
rvp v chelsea sat 12.45
rvp v blackburn sat 12.45
May 4 at 12:59 pm
Connor's Calling says:
you going RvP or Rooney Tosey?
(shh Fratboy)
May 4 at 1:01 pm
tosey says:
rvp
May 4 at 1:11 pm
Fratboy - Golden Boot - Van Persie 28, Rooney 26, Aguero 22 says:
haha
May 4 at 12:59 pm
Hate that rotation says:
Check RVPs scores for early kick offs:
Blackburn
Chelsea
Norwich
And some more
May 4 at 12:59 pm
ajay_kl says:
It is bollocks
May 4 at 1:00 pm
elniñorules: John Obi Mikel 2 Lionel Messi 0 says:
Both of RVP’s hat-tricks were in early fixture KOs.
May 4 at 1:05 pm
tangtastic says:
Cheers guys. Can’t believe I’m being this superstitious. Squeaky bum time.
May 4 at 1:12 pm
the Penman says:
I’ve only captained RVP in an early fixture once.
He score 20 points (to give me 40) and Arsenal scored 7.
Your call.
May 4 at 12:58 pm
Now back to the conspiracy... says:
GW38 it has to be Rooney RVP Aguero right?
May 4 at 12:59 pm
Goose says:
Probably. Im captaing Moses tho.
May 4 at 12:59 pm
Goose says:
*captaining
May 4 at 1:03 pm
champoz says:
holy moses!
May 4 at 1:06 pm
Goose says:
Gotta be done, i have nothing to play for (like us in the league) and their playing Wolves.
May 4 at 1:09 pm
champoz says:
Go out on a punt. Good a plan as any.
May 4 at 1:02 pm
Jack(off)Attack says:
Not sure about Rooney – when was the last time he scored away? 2 months or so
May 4 at 1:03 pm
Spike says:
Torres ??
May 4 at 12:59 pm
James says:
From the previous post, in response to a question regarding use of odds to determine statistical advantage in terms of expected points:
For each of the 1 goal, 2 goal and 3 goal scenarios, I adjusted the odds as follows (e.g. for RVP).
His chance of scoring AT LEAST 1 goal is 15/23 (66%). But this will include the probability of him scoring 2 goals, 3 goals, 4 goals etc. I assumed in my analysis that the odds you quoted for 2 goals were for 2 OR MORE goals, i.e. if he scored 3 goals, the bet for 2 goals would pay out – if this is not the case then Id have to adjust the calc accordingly.
So, RVP chance of scoring EXACTLY one goal is 15/23 – 1/3 (32%). Similarly, his chance of scoring EXACTLY 2 goals is 1/3 – 1/9 (22%). I took the chance of EXACTLY 3 goals to be 1/9 (11%). I multiplied these three outcomes by 4, 8 and 12 respectively (ignoring altogether the possibility of scoring 4 or more goals) to deduce that RVP’s expected points (from goals alone) is 4.39.
For Cisse, the same calculation gives 2.22.
I had an error, which Ive sicne corrected, so that the “anomaly” that I described earlier (RVP chances of 1 goal being less than his chance of 2 goals) is gone.
Im reasonably confident that the calc is correct, but of coruse it ignores assists and bonus points.
What do you think?
May 4 at 1:03 pm
Steel Arm says:
I think my maths is awful…
May 4 at 1:05 pm
Hay Number 2 says:
I don’t think that the laws of probability can be rationalised so simply given the massive amounts of variables.
May 4 at 1:06 pm
elniñorules: John Obi Mikel 2 Lionel Messi 0 says:
Very sound calculation.
So if you trust the bookies, Cisse > RVP isn’t worth a hit.
May 4 at 1:15 pm
stilicho says:
Trusting bookies to offer odds that will make them a profit is fine, trusting bookies to offer odds that reflect the actual probability of events occurring is a mistake.
May 4 at 1:21 pm
James says:
If we ignore the profit margin (since its present in all odds, even if unequally), then the odds DO represent, in some way at least, the chances of the outcomes occuring. Unlikelier events are given greater odds, for instance.
The shortcoming in terms of the multitude of ignored variables probably outweighs the problems with using bookies odds. At elast this is a leading indicator as opposed to using one of the following more flawed methods of rationalising: kick off time, how the player performed against the opponent in seasons past, or reverse fixtures, ICT or PPI index.
May 4 at 1:24 pm
stilicho says:
If bookies’ odds represent the probabilities of outcomes, then it logically follows that Rooney’s chances of scoring depend on how much money people have, or are likely to, bet on him.
May 4 at 1:47 pm
James says:
Given that we cannot actually derive a true probability of Rooney scoring, who is to say that the sum total of all better’s opinions isnt a worthwhile place to start?
Your argument is similar to saying that the fortunes of a company would depend on how many people buy shares (given how the share price moves in response to buying and selling decisions), when in actual fact its the other way around.
So I would argue that Rooney’s chances of scoring dont depend on how much money people have bet on him, but the amount of money bet on him (and hence the odds) depends on his chances of scoring.
May 4 at 1:59 pm
stilicho says:
“Your argument is similar to saying that the fortunes of a company would depend on how many people buy shares (given how the share price moves in response to buying and selling decisions), when in actual fact its the other way around.”
This isn’t my argument, I presented it as an extrapolation of your argument.
“but the amount of money bet on him (and hence the odds) depends on his chances of scoring.”
In a perfectly rational world yes, but human beings are irrational – gamblers even more so than most.
The purpose of the odds is to ensure the bookie makes a profit, not to predict outcomes. When they have a lot of exposure to popular, well known players like Rooney they shorten the odds, when they want to encourage betting on less well known players they increase the odds, in neither case are the odds an accurate reflection of the true probability. I suppose that somewhere in the middle (reasonably well known players) the bookies’ odds approximate fairly well to well to whatever the true probability is – but at the top and bottom of the scale it’s total hokum, and it’s these odds that you’re working with here.
May 4 at 2:13 pm
James says:
So I guess what we would need to do is estimate the kind of bias that bookies load into the odds? Doable, but it all gets a little spurious.
Dont the odds change in response to betting behaviour? Id have thought that the odds would then at least converge on the (consensus) probability.
Human beings are irrational in almost all spheres of life, including their investing behaviour on stock markets. Yet its not too inaccurate to presume that, at any given time, the share price does approximate the actual value of a share.
My argument is that betting behaviour is based on peoples’ opinions of someone scoring; that the chances of someone scoring are not dependent on their odds.
When you ask someone on this site whether a 4pt hit is worthwhile, they will make some assessment of what pointage each player is likely to get, and base their decision on that. Here, Im just using far more people’s opinions and thereby arriving at what is hopeful a more accurate (but inaccurate) answer.
Surely it cant be worse than going on Joe Soaps opinion on whether Cisse->RVP is worth a hit??
May 4 at 2:27 pm
stilicho says:
“Surely it cant be worse than going on Joe Soaps opinion on whether Cisse->RVP is worth a hit??”
That’s a fair point, and it’s clearly even more irrational to make a decision on that basis than it is to look at the odds, but once you start expressing things in terms of odds and probabilities you clothe irrationality in a veneer of scientific respectability, the other reponses to your post seem to credulously accept everything you said as scientific fact, and it’s that induced made me pipe up.
I’m not sure that the stock market comparison is entirely valid for the purposes of a one off bet on a one off occurrance. People betting on Rooney aren’t buying a share in him, they can’t collude and create a speculative bubble, they would gain more by fewer other people seeing him as an asset, which strikes me as the reverse of how stock market profiteering works most of the time.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to take bookies’ odds as a starting point, as you say, with the proviso that where the odds are very short the probability is probably a bit longer, and where odds are very long the probability is likely to be a bit shorter, but ultimately those odds are based only on the opinions of a demonstrably irrational subset of the people who have an opinion i.e. those who are willing to fund a collossally profitable gambling industry out of their income.
700 million in tax recepts per year from gambling in the UK, I don’t what that equates to in terms of the gross income of gambling companies, but it’s certainly a huge figure, and it certainly demonstrates that the gamblers who are influencing these odds don’t know what the hell they’re on about.
May 4 at 2:20 pm
James says:
And what you have stated is not a logical conclusion at all.
I say that the share price reflects the profit prospects of the company in question. You say that this logically means that the profits of the company depend on the share price.
Thats not a logical conclusion at all.
May 4 at 2:31 pm
stilicho says:
For reasons in my post above I don’t think the stock market analogy works in this instance either way. The point I was trying to make is that at one point in time the odds of Rooney scoring are X, ten minutes later a rich idiot dumps a ton of cash on Rooney scoring, the bookie then shortens the odds on Rooney to avoid further exposure. Does the act of a rich idiot placing a bet make Rooney more likely to score? If you trust the odds as an approximation of the probability, you would have to say yes.
May 4 at 2:38 pm
stilicho says:
Essentially I think the stock market analogy doesn’t work because investing in a company can change its prospects in real terms, betting on a football player cannot effect his prospects in real terms.
May 4 at 2:39 pm
stilicho says:
Anyway, this makes a nice change from the standard RMT stuff on here.
May 4 at 2:48 pm
James says:
Stock markets reflect prices paid in a secondary market, and dont have too big an impact on the financial prospects of a company (unless that company wanted to raise more share capital through a further share issue). Companies dont try to increase their share prices so that they will perform better – they perform better to improve their share prices.
Odds dont just reflect the whims of millionnaires, which I agree serve to distort things. In light of the odds being shorted (to beyond what other betters think it reasonable), surely people will start to lay the bet instead, thereby offsetting the action of the rich inevstor?
At the end of the day, I will concede that use of odds is fraught with problems. But I will not agree that using one individual’s opinion is any better. People no here often give replies based on who they have in their team, for instance, and gut feel. I am a fan of summing up the gut feelings to get soemthing a little more accurate
May 4 at 2:54 pm
James says:
And yes, it has made for a nice change
If anything the odds on RVP being shortened (away from “reality”) would strengthen the argument that Cisse->RVP isnt worth the 4pt hit, would it not? i.e. that RVP isnt actually as likely to score as the odds suggest, therefore his expected output is lower than that derived using the odds.
May 4 at 2:55 pm
stilicho says:
The fact still remains: investment in a company can affect its prospects, betting on a footballer cannot.
Ultimately if odds are an approximate reflection of true probabilities then gambling companies would approximately break even, in reality they make massive and steady profits, that alone demonstrates the massive and steady gulf between odds and real probabilities.
May 4 at 2:57 pm
stilicho says:
“If anything the odds on RVP being shortened (away from “reality”) would strengthen the argument that Cisse->RVP isnt worth the 4pt hit, would it not? i.e. that RVP isnt actually as likely to score as the odds suggest, therefore his expected output is lower than that derived using the odds.”
Yes! I think. My brain is about to melt
It’s been nice talking to you though, you’re clearly a smart guy and I enjoyed thrashing out this stuff. Your post was definitely more useful and considered than the vast majority on here, and on that basis I feel a bit of an idiot for deciding to have a go.
May 4 at 3:12 pm
James says:
Pls, have a go! It would be meaningless if it wasnt challenged. I feel more informed having had the chat with you, and that is great
May 4 at 1:17 pm
James says:
Something like that.
I am not saying I agree with the odds. This was just in response to someone else’s calculation – the two of us got sucked into the stats of it all
I think the bonus points may swing it, since there are far more candidates in the Newc City game (even if Cisse scores) than in the Arsenal game.
May 4 at 1:07 pm
Ryan says:
Glover might have something to say about that
May 4 at 1:13 pm
stilicho says:
There’s a fundamental problem with using bookies’ odds in this way, in that they are not intended to represent the odds of something happening, they’re a calculation based as much on predicting human irrationality and ensuring that bookies make a profit from that irrationality.
May 4 at 1:40 pm
Mr_T says:
Hi James, you still there? This is very impressive.. see my post on the last article!
May 4 at 1:49 pm
James says:
Thanks.
I spend all day working on spreadsheets and such (Im an actuary), so I do love me a number-based (or stats-based) problem
May 4 at 1:02 pm
Lor10 says:
I need help:
Have a 12p lead in my ML, and I want to make a defensive move to neutralize my opponents Vermaelen.
Should I bring in Vermaelen for a 4p-hit, or choose Koscielny without a hit?
Is my Vermaelen-fear rational?
May 4 at 1:07 pm
unoaime says:
If you get Verm and he doesn’t score, you’ve made it easier for your opponent to catch up to you with his other players.
If you don’t get him and he scores, your opponent could be close to equal your score.
For me, it’s more likely he doesn’t score than does score so i’d just neutralize the cleansheet possibility by getting Koscielny and hope for the best.
May 5 at 12:08 am
Lor10 says:
I agree, thank you very much!
May 4 at 1:02 pm
Hay Number 2 says:
Rate my team:
Krul (Vorm)
Vermaelen Walker Turner (Caulker) (Evans)
Valencia Bale Dempsey Pienaar (Siggy)
Jelavic Rooney RVP (C)
Thank you¬!
May 4 at 1:07 pm
elniñorules: John Obi Mikel 2 Lionel Messi 0 says:
Let the war begin, comrade!
THIS IS SPARTA!!!!!!
May 4 at 1:10 pm
Hay Number 2 says:
What is your points total at the moment? Plus have you taken any hits this week
Strength and honour
May 4 at 1:11 pm
Spike says:
Good team and geat ranking. Your biggest problem will be who to bench other than Evans !!
May 4 at 1:15 pm
Hay Number 2 says:
Siggy and Caulker….I am banking on a United Back lash!
May 4 at 1:08 pm
unoaime says:
Great team.
What do you plan to do next week?
May 4 at 1:12 pm
Hay Number 2 says:
Depends on the results from this week, may load up on city players!
May 4 at 1:37 pm
Phaze 1 says:
6/10
May 4 at 1:06 pm
SaintMatt says:
Reem or Kelly or another 4.1 defender for this gw?
May 4 at 1:08 pm
jayzico says:
cisse > hernandez for a hit. Crazy?
May 4 at 1:09 pm
Ryan says:
Yes crazy
May 4 at 1:18 pm
jayzico says:
cheers mate. I’ll hold off
May 4 at 1:10 pm
The Stock says:
Right.
A) Ade=====> RVP
or
B) Cisse + Ben Arfa=======> RVP & Moses
May 4 at 1:10 pm
unoaime says:
I like B.
May 4 at 1:15 pm
Fratboy - Golden Boot - Van Persie 28, Rooney 26, Aguero 22 says:
as do I.
May 4 at 1:17 pm
champoz says:
You live again in the Cup Fratboy. Good luck mate
May 4 at 1:12 pm
champoz says:
Yeah B has got more bite.
May 4 at 1:13 pm
Spike says:
B because it gives you better options for GW38 as well
May 4 at 1:19 pm
Pratik says:
b) for sure