Pre-Season Projections Are Live
Filed under: Members - Posted by: Mark
We’re delighted to reveal that the first set of Pre-Season Projections are now available to our Members. These can be found under the Projections section in the Members Area – we’ve supplied a season-long table, split by each position and, for a short-term view, have also provided a table which plots the Projections for just the opening six Gameweeks.
The Player Projections are, in many ways, our player predictions, offering a view of “projected” goals, assists, clean sheets etc for the season ahead. We also include Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points and bonus in the Projections, although no matter what Fantasy game you play, these will hopefully provide an invaluable guide.
We will be updating these Projections frequently: there will doubtless be tweaks required, particularly to the playing probabilities – in some cases almost immediately as the new signings alter our thinking – but we’ve decided to present our first set of data.
In case you missed our previous article, this season’s Projections are being created using the statistical model behind the Rate My Team website. This site was run by Chris Atkinson for the past two seasons, during which he achieved some superb results with the model. Chris is a statistician who specifically built his model to simulate and predict the returns of players in Fantasy Football and, particularly, the FPL. Having brought Chris on board to help us with our Projections, we’re pretty delighted with the end result and the power and flexibility of the model behind them.
The Projections are, of course, part of our Members offering. For more details on the benefits of Membership and how to join, click here.
Here’s a short FAQ with more details….
How do I use the Projections?
Crucially, these tables can be used as another opinion-former when comparing players. Every player is rated for goals, assists, clean sheets etc based on values created by the “Rate My Team” statistical model – the values returned for each player are the expected values in accordance with its calculations.
A good way of thinking about them is to consider them average values for each player. If the season was played out 500 times, the values you’ll find in these projection tables are the average that the model would expect the player to score.
One of the most useful aspects of the Projections is the value column. You can sort by this to find the best value (Points Per FPL Million) delivered by players in each position.
With tables for the season and the opening six Gameweeks, you can get a view on long-term and short-term returns and value.
What are these values based on?
The “Rate My Team” statistical model is a complex beast – it uses historical data stretching back a number of seasons and, of course, specific player and team data. When generating the player values the model looks at the specific fixture in each Gameweek, assessing the strength of both teams before calculating the likely team goals scored and how these goals will translate to specific player stats. The probability of a player taking part in the match is also a key ingredient. Factors such as rotation, injuries, suspensions and absence due to the African Cup of Nations are also simulated by the model.
Why do the stats show decimal places?
The values returned by the model are not exact values – they are not figures that state what a player will score for a particular stat but a value which indicates their expected return. As such, the model can be more accurate when producing data with decimal places.
Why has Van Persie got fewer goals etc?
There’s no denying Robin Van Persie enjoyed an incredible season last term. For starters, he avoided injury and was almost ever present – the first time he has achieved or even came close to this in his entire Premier League career. Secondly, Van Persie was, without doubt, the key attacking force in the Arsenal lineup – the summer acquisitions of Olivier Giroud and Lukas Podolski suggest this may not be the case any longer. Added to this, of course, there is uncertainty surrounding the Dutchman’s future at the club.
Why are there fewer goals across the board?
The model used historical data to create an average goals per game value for the season. Although we’ve seen a trend that has seen the goal count soar in recent campaigns, the model has been more cautious and is currently expecting less goals for teams, with fewer big scorelines and teams that are likely to leak large amounts of goals. In a nutshell, the model doesn’t think that there will be a Blackpool or Wolves around as whipping boys next season.
When will these Projections be updated?
We’ll most likely update these every day up until the season kick-off. As we get more data on likely first choice lineups and as the transfer market moves to cast doubt over starters, we will adapt and tweak the model accordingly. It’s highly likely that, over the space of a few days, you’ll notice significant movement within the data for certain players.
There are still lots of issues to be resolved that will have a marked affect on the Projections – notably the striker situations at Arsenal and Spurs.
We’ll keep you posted on any major changes and movements in the Projections as and when they are made. Full Projection analysis articles for members will be following next week.
About The Author
“Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.”
Mark
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July 28 at 8:23 am
FORCA INTER says:
just watching olympic games opening ceremony cause i missed it yesterday
impressive stuff
i wonder how much money UK spent on that?
July 28 at 8:24 am
finnish says:
35 million euros
July 28 at 8:27 am
clicker says:
watched it last night and was pleasantly surprised. Bit cheesey in parts and strangely reminiscent of the euro-vision song contest
July 28 at 8:27 am
Dan says:
£27m apparently. Was a great ceremony although I missed the lighting of the torch as I had to be up at 6 this morning. The music part in the middle was brilliant. Well done Danny Boyle.
July 28 at 8:29 am
Dan says:
Lighting of the Olympic flame even. I’m sure I’ve seen them lighting the torch a hundred times by now.
July 28 at 8:29 am
Gwaihir says:
Worth every penny; & you don’t want to leave your Euros in the bank these days.
Great stuff.
COME ON CAV!
July 28 at 8:30 am
Oz lotto says:
It cost less than aNdy Carroll!!!
July 28 at 8:32 am
Goaltastic says:
Haha!
July 28 at 8:34 am
Carroll to the rescue says:
about 25-30m……lesser than Carroll
July 28 at 8:50 am
Ms.Red19ML Code 75-669 says:
£27m
July 28 at 8:28 am
finnish says:
My 11 for gw1:
—————-Federici——————
—A. Cole—-Clichy——-Gorkss—
Lamps—Bale—Dempsey–Noble
——Torres—-Tevez—-Pog———
Six doublegameweekers!
July 28 at 8:30 am
finnish says:
2m in bank for Torres -> Rooney
July 28 at 8:30 am
Oz lotto says:
Don’t rate the reading overload. And what are your plans on getting them all out for gw3??
July 28 at 8:30 am
Jack(off) - Arsenal: The Markus Liebherr Memorial Cup winners of 2012. says:
GW3 WC?
July 28 at 8:38 am
finnish says:
No.
GW2: Torres -> Rooney
GW3: Lampard -> Kagawa / Siggy / VDV
Fedreici, Cole, Gorkss and Pog on bench gw3.
So I have field 11 players in gameweek 3 without hits.
July 28 at 8:39 am
Jack(off) - Arsenal: The Markus Liebherr Memorial Cup winners of 2012. says:
And when injuries, or your players fall out of favour, or when a few fail miserably in the opening GW’s occurs?
Will that be worth what is likely to be an extra 2 points in GW1?
July 28 at 8:43 am
finnish says:
Then I’m in trouble! But in that case I can use those “extra 2 points” for transfers point hits.
July 28 at 8:31 am
Goaltastic says:
overkill on dgw for me, prefer a long game.
July 28 at 8:41 am
finnish says:
I’m keeping Cole, Federici and Gorkss for a long time. Getting rid Torres and Lamps in gw 2 and 3. Pog to Maiga gw 4.
July 28 at 9:26 am
Goaltastic says:
Too many preplanned transfers though. It’ll leave you taking hits I guarantee.
July 28 at 8:29 am
Oz lotto says:
Hey lAds, throw in you opinion on:
A) yaya Valencia and pog
B) silva pienaar and petric
Keeping in mind I also have aguero for city cover !
Thanks boys
July 28 at 8:30 am
Jack(off) - Arsenal: The Markus Liebherr Memorial Cup winners of 2012. says:
B.
July 28 at 8:31 am
Dan says:
I’ve got something similar to B) so that’s what I’m going to suggest!
July 28 at 8:32 am
lfcserg says:
IMO do Silva Michu and Lambert
July 28 at 8:32 am
Oz lotto says:
Not getting on this Michu bandwagon
July 28 at 8:32 am
FuzzyWarbles says:
since evs normally do it, and i normally do…one more RMT?
de Gea, Federici
Cole, Clichy, Williams (Rangel if WIlliams leaves), WHM 4.0, SOU 4.0
Siggy, Lamps, Kagawa, Michu, Maloney
Torres, Tevez, Pogrebnyak
July 28 at 8:34 am
Evs says:
Where’s Williams off?
I woudl go Rangel anyway, gets forward more.
Which sou def?
I have tried to avoid Pog, seem my team bottom of other page…. But he does help the cause.
Interesting team though, I like the Siggy inclusion – but I think Lamps looks like he will actually be deeper this year and. Got a feeling Chelsea team going to revolve around the hazard.
July 28 at 8:38 am
FuzzyWarbles says:
williams more prone to bonus though. its pretty close admittedly.
lamps will be out by gw 3 in all likelihood anyway. short term punt.
oh and i forgot, still 2 mil in the bank!!!
July 28 at 8:39 am
He's an entertainer, Borinis not his style. says:
Nice, Tevez is risky but may be one worth taking. I’m not sure of all the hype with Michu either. Top scoring midfielder but doesn’t offer much else isn’t that right? He wont get as much time on the ball as he did in Spain. I suppose you have to speculate to accumulate though ey.
July 28 at 8:42 am
FuzzyWarbles says:
i feel like if mancini doesnt give tevez regular starts to at least start the season, its just going to cause so much friction again, after what tevez did to help them pull out the title, i think hes going to start regularly, at least to begin with. hed have to put in a couple of bad performances before mancini drops him.
July 28 at 8:47 am
He's an entertainer, Borinis not his style. says:
May be but Balotelli had a corker of a Euro’s and he wont want to upset him either and let’s be honest, Aguero is his favourite so I can see shared game time.
July 28 at 8:34 am
He's an entertainer, Borinis not his style. says:
Yes, true, I just don’t trust Villa to bring anything, probably just me. If Tevez plays… hell yea he’s an absolute steal. Maybe if an FPL member accidentally runs over Aguero’s foot near the training ground he’ll get more minutes… hmm.
July 28 at 8:34 am
He's an entertainer, Borinis not his style. says:
Page 15 fail to EVS.
July 28 at 8:36 am
Evs says:
I know. I down like the tevez option much.
I will ponder for few days. Thanks for feedback.
July 28 at 8:40 am
He's an entertainer, Borinis not his style. says:
np. I’m posting mine soon and would like some comments too.
July 28 at 8:41 am
Evs says:
No chance
July 28 at 8:44 am
He's an entertainer, Borinis not his style. says:
ha
July 28 at 8:36 am
AA says:
How nailed on is Stephen Ireland ? Is it worthy of taking a punt on him or just go N.Dyer ?
July 28 at 8:36 am
ROHAN 11 says:
JOA, if you are still around..
It is getting increasingly difficult to recognise you with the Jack Wilshere grav.. Would be great if SuperVorm or Verminator made a comeback..
Lurker..
July 28 at 8:42 am
Jack(off) - Arsenal: The Markus Liebherr Memorial Cup winners of 2012. says:
They were soooo last season.
July 28 at 8:41 am
Ali Dia says:
How’s this looking?
Krul Mignolet
Cole Lescott Dawson Rafael Fonte
Hazard Noble Bale Taarabt Maloney
Torres Graham Tevez
£2m in the bank for Rooney week 2.
July 28 at 8:49 am
Ali Dia says:
C’mon dudes! Any faults??
July 28 at 8:58 am
He's an entertainer, Borinis not his style. says:
Dawson might not play and Tevez is a gamble but it looks good.
July 28 at 8:41 am
EX says:
I haven’t touched my team in 2 days now, does that mean I’m happy with it?
Do care to have a look folks
Friedel – Federici
Terry ( S. Taylor GW 3) – Clichy – Rafael – Demel – Fonte
Hazard – Valencia – McClean – Taarabt – Noble
Torres – Aguero – Graham
July 28 at 8:44 am
Evs says:
Not sure about tarabat and QPR games….
I would also avoid Rafael for now, I don’t think he returns from Olympics until 10 aug,
If they read fial he could have played 7 games In under 20 days….
July 28 at 8:47 am
lightspeed says:
Morning Evs. Good break from FPL?
July 28 at 8:44 am
Ali Dia says:
I like it, if it was me though i’d swap Clichy and Valencia for Lescott and Kagawa.
July 28 at 8:47 am
EX says:
This, is a decision I’ve been pondering as well. I think I’ll wait on Kagawa though. See how exactly SAF decides to use him.
As to Rafael, I don’t see anyone else stating at RB, but you do have a point. Thanks my good men.
July 28 at 8:42 am
lfcserg says:
RMT
Friedel – Federici
Ivanovic – Clichy – Williams (Clyne, Gunter)
Silva – Kagawa – Hazard – Maloney (Frei)
Lambert – Aguero – Torres
Gameweek 2: Hazard -> Bale
July 28 at 8:44 am
He's an entertainer, Borinis not his style. says:
De Gea (Cerny)
Cole, Clichy, Coloccini, (Cuellar, Fonte)
Lamps, VDV, Noble, Taarabt, (Maloney)
Aguero, Rooney, Pog
1.5 in the bank to tweak the midfield. (Possibly change Lamps out)
Potentially Torres for Rooney then change GW2.
Any comments appreciated.
July 28 at 8:45 am
Evs says:
See my comment above on tarabat and lamps.
I like colocinni punt, but not for first 2 games.
DVD is interesting, but good games… Not sure how Siggy will effect him. Prefer bale to either.
July 28 at 8:51 am
He's an entertainer, Borinis not his style. says:
Yea Taarabt is a gamble. I just think he’ll be on pens and he’s more settled, hopefully he’ll perform.
VDV also on pens right? I think VDV will be more important for Spurs than Siggy but to be fair, it does worry me that he doesn’t seem to be able to play a full 90 mins these days. Time will tell with those two.
July 28 at 9:06 am
Evs says:
Ade was last year over dvd
July 28 at 8:45 am
Mull says:
Presenting the most boring team of FPL 2012/13:
De Gea, Federici
Cole, Clichy, Kaboul, Demel, Clyne
Bale, Silva, Larsson, Noble, Guthrie
Rooney, Torres, Graham
July 28 at 8:52 am
He's an entertainer, Borinis not his style. says:
Looks very good. Not as many people are going for Silva, could be a great shout. Good balance… I’m a fan of this team.
July 28 at 8:46 am
ROHAN 11 says:
Right, if this is not the best team then i don’t know what is
Vorm– Begovic
Clyne– Demel– Cuellar– Clichy– A.Cole
Hazard (Bale in GW2)– N’Zogbia– Taarabt– Guthrie– Maloney
Rooney– Aguero– Torres (C)
July 28 at 8:50 am
Hard Van Toulouse says:
That’s a lot different from your last one, much better,
Methinks thoust jest !
July 28 at 8:51 am
ROHAN 11 says:
Cheers HVT..Was playing around the last time anyway
July 28 at 8:53 am
lightspeed says:
Big front 3 look good on paper. For me I would probably prefer another big midfielder to enable more flexibility and limit potential point hits. Only while things get going due to the unknowns.
E.g what is hazard explodes in GW1… Will you still make that transfer to bale when Chelsea have a home fixture despite that blank in GW3?
Another big un in mid provides more options IMO
July 28 at 9:00 am
ROHAN 11 says:
I quite like the idea of the Big front 3.. And it does not limit my options IMO..If Hazard does explode in GW 1, I’ll just do Cashley > >BAE .. But you certainly have a good point
July 28 at 8:54 am
He's an entertainer, Borinis not his style. says:
Looks good up top but to have all of those three you’ve sacrificed a bit in midfield. Only one big hitter and 4 gambles.
July 28 at 9:02 am
ROHAN 11 says:
Liking the N’Zog punt myself.. Taarabt, Maloney and Guthrie are VFM players who can give me the points.. N’zog is a gamble.. Don’t think the others are
July 28 at 8:57 am
Mull says:
Why pay 5.5m for a Swansea keeper when you can pay 5m for one of their defenders.
Good defence
Don’t like the N’Zogbia punt but the rest of the midfield is great.
Front 3 could be downgraded slightly to upgrade N’Zogbia to a higher scoring mid such as Silva/Lamps/Dempsey
July 28 at 9:05 am
ROHAN 11 says:
In the end it boiled down to Cuellar + Vorm vs Swansea defender + Mignolet.. Both cost 10.. I went for the former..
And as mentioned above, really fancy the BIG 3 up top..If not, then i can always downgrade can’t i??
July 28 at 8:47 am
methos says:
Berbatov might be on his way to Tottenham since the transfer of Adebayor appears to be stuck (they can’t seem to agree on his wages). That would be one hell of a transfer FPL-wise! Straight into my team then!
July 28 at 8:56 am
He's an entertainer, Borinis not his style. says:
100% in my team too.
July 28 at 9:55 am
clicker says:
+31
July 28 at 8:47 am
Hard Van Toulouse says:
Any head 2 head leagues available on here ?
July 30 at 11:23 am
djaphex says:
Superb H2H: 43744-115899
July 28 at 8:49 am
asyrafdanial says:
2nd team draft & will leave it for a long season. Any criticsm:
Krul (Rudd)
Cole – Lescott – BAE (Clyne – Mariappa)
Siggy – Sinclair – Yaya – Valencia (Britton)
Cisse – Adebayor – Djibril
July 28 at 8:55 am
Willis_Hide says:
New post.
July 28 at 11:28 am
FC_Cuers says:
Hello everyone, I’m new here and need some tips and advices for my FPL Team !
Here it is :
Jaask – Cerny
A Cole – Jones – Clichy – Barnett – McCartney
Silva – Hazard – Guthrie – Kagawa – Dyer
Aguero – Torres – Pog
What do you think about it?
Tell me ! Thx!
July 28 at 12:00 pm
cat_shafton says:
dumb question probably but are projected points amended after GW1 / GW2 etc to include actual points scored?
July 28 at 1:50 pm
GeorgeR12345 says:
I’ve had a look at everyone else’s teams and the feedback and have chosen this:
De Gea (Federici)
Lescott Skrtel Kaboul (McCartney) (Rangel)
Yaya Toure Bale Sinclair Hazard(c) (Guthrie)
Graham Agüero(v) Lambert
Feedback would be much appreciated as well as captain tips, what do you think?
July 28 at 2:00 pm
Joey Barton and Friends says:
good team but as far as I know Liverpool have poor fixtures so I would skrtel. Also, Yaya could be playing defensive so best to hold off on that. A bit week up top as well with Lambert and Graham
July 28 at 2:04 pm
GeorgeR12345 says:
I’m thinking Skrtel for Williams. That leaves 15 mil for a midfielder and a striker, who do you recommend?
July 29 at 10:44 am
GeorgeR12345 says:
I’ve had a look at everyone else’s teams and the feedback and have chosen this:
Friedel (Federici)
Lescott Williams A Cole (Rangel) (McCartney)
Guthrie Bale Sinclair Hazard(c) (Maloney)
Torres Agüero(v) Lambert
How would you rate it out of 10? Who should I change? Captain choices?
Feedback is much appreciated thanks.
July 29 at 11:34 am
Nadoo says:
Hi Guys im looking for feedback…what do you guys think of my team? Should i make any changes?
De Gea Federici
A Cole S.Taylor G.Johnson Clichy Gorkss
Michu Lamps Arteta Walters Maloney
Torres Aguero Pog
GW 2 Lamps for Sigurd
I think i have one too many Reading players…any suggestions? Demel for Gorkss?