The Fellaini Exit Route

The fallout from Marouane Fellaini’s three-match ban has Fantasy managers empathising with David Moyes as we look to counter the Belgian’s impending absence over the festive schedule. The second most popular player in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game, Fellaini has been a mainstay in many a midfield but while Moyes has to juggle his Goodison options, we have the luxury of selling him on. As the trades out continue to accelerate ahead of Saturday’s deadline, we take a look at the tactical options on offer…

Analysing the season ticker, Everton’s upturn in schedule from Gameweek 22 is immediately noticeable. Coinciding with the opening of the the winter wildcard window, this sees the Toffees handed four enticing fixtures (SWA, sou, WBA, AVL) which are likely to have Fellaini earmarked for a return to our squads – while the Toffees have scored more than a single goal in just one of their last six, the Belgian’s importance to the Merseysiders’ cause is too good to ignore. Eight goals, four assists, 16 FPL bonus points and five lots of double figures are indicative of the form that has helped him to 95 FPL points – sixth top scoring player in the game so far.

With Fellaini’s first game back – away to Newcastle on January 2 – just over a fortnight away, his price has already dropped 0.1 this week as the transfers out pick up pace. Luckily for his owners, it had previously risen on Saturday night, though can still drop another 0.2 before Saturday’s deadline. Given his consistency so far, many will likely pencil him in for a quick return and with this in mind, we’re focussing mainly on the next four Gameweeks, with a nod to long-term strategy also factored in.

The Straight Swap

For those that don’t already have him, Michu is an obvious alternative. Priced at 8.1 to Fellaini’s 7.9 in FPL, the Spaniard has a home clash with United, followed by trips to Reading and Fulham before Villa visit the Liberty in Gameweek 21. With an ownership of over 48%, though, the chances are that he’s already in your team – if not, Michu’s four yellows plays a real part in weighing up his short-term acquisition. A booking in any of his next three would earn him a one-match ban; a definite factor when looking for alternatives: he has gone 11 first team starts without a booking, however.

The same applies to West Ham’s Kevin Nolan. The Hammers’ skipper picked up a caution in Sunday’s draw at the Hawthorns and also sits on four yellows. While the next two (EVE, ars) look tricky, the schedule then eases for Sam Allardyce’s men. Nolan’s form has suffered from a horrendous run of fixtures in recent weeks but with a schedule that reads (rdg, NOR, sun, QPR, ful, SWA, avl) from Gameweek 20-26, his 6.8 price could prove decent value. His poor recent form could persuade many to look elsewhere, though; Nolan has failed to score or assist in his last six.

Yaya Toure has so far proved the more appealing replacement – over 94,000 have drafted in the 7.7 priced City man after he notched back-to-back goals in the past two Gameweeks. Certainly, Toure offers guaranteed game time and has four enticing fixtures on the horizon (RDG, sun, nor, STO) though his impending African Cup of Nations duties with Ivory Coast is likely to see him depart from these shores in Gameweek 22. That should, however, ensure that Roberto Mancini fields Toure over the three Christmas fixtures. Team-mate Samir Nasri, priced at 8.0, is a real differential if he can recover from a groin problem sustained at Newcastle last Saturday.

United pair Ashley Young and Antonio Valencia come in at 8.2 and 8.4 respectively – considerably less than the premium midfield options. The Red Devils’ next four seems particularly appetising (swa, NEW, WBA, wig) and seem full of goals right now. Young has now produced an assist in each of the last three, though you have to go all the way back to Gameweek 9 to find Valencia’s last returns.

Theo Walcott’s move to a central role up front will surely propel him onto Fantasy radars. Coming in at 8.5 in FPL, his out of position prospects could be dimmed by a possible postponement of Arsenal’s Boxing Day game with West Ham due to the tube strike – if that one goes ahead at the Emirates, though, the Gunners’ next four (wig, WHM, NEW, sot) not only offers a viable swap from Fellaini but also helps cover the Arsenal midfield for those who can’t quite squeeze in Santi Cazorla.

Staying in north London, Aaron Lennon, at 7.0, is another who is guaranteed starts. The winger has featured in the first XI in every league match under Andre Villas-Boas and has scored, assisted or picked up bonus in three of his last five. With one double figure return all season, he’s not the most explosive but Spurs’ next five (STO, avl, sun,REA, qpr) look prosperous.

Alternatively, if you want to keep faith in the Everton midfield, Steven Pienaar and Leon Osman, at 6.5 and 6.3 respectively, are certain starters for Moyes’ outfit. Both are vying for the role vacated by Fellaini but with Osman sitting on four yellows, Pienaar is perhaps the safest bet here. Having retired from international duties, he no longer has to consider the African Cup of Nations and has returned to form with a goal and assist over the last two matches.

Heavy Hitter

Obviously, much depends on each Fantasy manager’s current budget situation. Those eyeing up the premium priced options may have enough cash in the bank to make a straight swap, while some will be looking to downgrade in midfield or amongst their forwards in order to do so. A four point hit could be on the cards, then, but with many of the main protagonists set for some enticing fixtures, many will be swayed to take a punt and acquire their targets for the long-term, rather than just the matches to cover Fellaini’s absence.

Santi Cazorla’s Fantasy potential pretty much speaks for itself after last night’s devastating display at Reading. Up to third on the overall FPL standings on 105 points, his fixtures continue to look superb and while the possible Gameweek 19 blank could curtail his appeal, Cazorla’s 23 points at the Madejski has shown he could more than atone if the Hammers match is indeed called off. At 9.6, he’s started every match so far and looks rotation-proof amongst Arsene Wenger’s men – if Arsenal are to continue their climb up the table, his form is key.

Gareth Bale’s hopes of returning for this weekend’s home clash with Stoke were given a boost after Andre Villas-Boas admitted the Welshman is likely to recover from a hamstring injury in time for the Potters’ clash. Prior to limping off against Fulham in Gameweek 15, Bale had scored in his previous three – by far, his most consistent run of the season. His price has dropped to 9.6 from 9.9 and with just 13% ownership, Bale has the potential to run riot over those above-mentioned five fixtures.

David Silva picked up his first returns in five Gameweeks last weekend to serve a reminder of his capabilities. It’s been an underwhelming campaign for the City playmaker so far but he’s already earned plenty new investors prior to the weekend in light of Fellaini’s suspension. Silva has a mere 6% FPL ownership and while a 9.4 price tag is likely to see him overlooked for Toure amongst Roberto Mancini’s midfield, the latter’s departure with Ivory Coast next month lessens his appeal. While rest and rotation continue to blight City’s forwards, Silva’s security of starts could be a big plus as the champions look to take advantage of a favourable festive schedule in their bid to retain the title. It all begins with Reading at home this weekend: given the Royals’ showing last night, this immediately raises Silva’s stock.

Back from their World Club Championship travels to Japan, Chelsea duo Juan Mata and Eden Hazard come back into the equation. Mata, in particular, has shown a far greater consistency over the course of the campaign and has scored in his last two under Rafa Benitez – Hazard, on the other hand, has notched twice since Gameweek 4. Both are back to their original starting prices of 9.5 but with Villa and QPR rolling up to the Bridge in the next four, there’ll be plenty willing to take a punt. Trips to Everton and Norwich slightly dent their potential, however, while Benitez’s rotational whims may kick into overdrive over Christmas to cause concern.

Finally, Steven Gerrard is a real differential amongst the costly alternatives. Many have understandably opted for Raheem Sterling’s cut-price appeal over his skipper but with just three assists in his last nine, the youngster is starting to toil and Brendan Rodgers is already talking up the possibility of resting him. Gerrard has scored or assisted in three of the last four for the Reds – a spell in which Luis Suarez has produced only blanks – and at 9.3, with a 4% ownership, Gerrard has three enticing home games (FUL, SUN, NOR) and a trip to QPR in the next six.

Budget Replacement

Alternatively, downgrading Fellaini over the next few fixtures would allow us to free up budget to spend up front. With the likes of Wayne Rooney and Sergio Aguero back on the goal trail, many are looking to bolster their forward lines – with Luis Suarez and Dimitar Berbatov continuing to draw blanks, Fellaini’s suspension could be the catalyst in snapping up an in-form forward to complement Robin Van Persie.

Adel Taarabt’s two-goal display against Fulham last weekend brings him into consideration. The Moroccan has finally started to produce the Fantasy returns his displays have long threatened and at 5.6 in FPL, his acquisition would free up budget to be spent elsewhere. Harry Redknapp’s side have a tricky trip to Newcastle up next but then have two home matches (WBA, LIV) to boost their relegation bid but, with four yellows to his name and the upcoming African Cup of Nations to consider, Taarabt doesn’t come without risk.

Damien Duff has a quartet of fixtures (liv, SOT, SWA, wba) to extend his lead as top scoring Fantasy player for Fulham. Coming in at 6.0, Duff produced double figures in his previous home game and while 5.1 priced Steve Sidwell is just three points behind Duff on 65, the latter’s weekend suspension dents his appeal. Fulham’s Boxing Day clash with Southampton is expected to go ahead is spite of the tube strike; good news for those eyeing up the Cottagers’ assets.

Chris Brunt has been one of the most consistent performers for West Brom in recent matches. The Northern Ireland international has provided an assist or picked up bonus in four of his last five starts – James Morrison, by comparison, has a single assist since Gameweek 12 and will likely drop to a deeper role with Youssouf Mulumbu suspended for the weekend. It’s Norwich at the Hawthorns on Saturday, with Fulham and Villa also on the home horizon, in addition to trips to QPR and Reading in the next six. Brunt and Morrison – priced at 5.5 and 6.3 respectively – offer some appeal, while Zoltan Gera, at 5.1, has started three of the last four for Steve Clarke’s side. With three defeats and a draw in the last four, the Baggies’ form remains a concern, however.

Elsewhere, Swansea duo Wayne Routledge and Nathan Dyer both look likely starters on the flanks until Pablo Hernandez is fit and available. While the former two are under 6.0, Hernandez – if he can shake off a thigh injury – looks an intriguing alternative; he has averaged over seven points per game in his last four at the Liberty and at 6.1 looks a real differential, with an ownership of under 1%.

Villa’s Brett Holman has prospered since a move behind the front pair in a 3-5-2 for Villa. The 5.5 priced Australian international has a goal, two assists and three bonus points in his last three, averaging over seven points per game, and with Paul Lambert’s side in strong form, has home games with Spurs and Wigan, in addition to a trip to Swansea on the schedule.

At 6.4, Jack Wilshere offers cover in Arsenal’s midfield ahead of their run of fixtures and is a clear differential option amongst Arsene Wenger’s charges, though has the possible postponement of a Boxing Day clash hanging over him. While Norwich pair Robert Snodgrass and Anthony Pilkington have picked up the points in recent games, the Canaries 10-match unbeaten league run will be put firmly to the test over the next four, with investment looking a risk.

Jason Puncheon continues to look an assured starter for Southampton and, with Liverpool’s Raheem Sterling in line for a imminent rest, he has emerged as the most enticing asset in the budget bracket. Six back-to-back starts in Nigel Adkins’ side has seen the right winger score or assist in three of the last five; a run of games that has helped him average just under seven points per game from Gameweek 12-16. At 4.7, his cut-price acquisition at Fellaini’s expense would release significant funds to splash up front. With Adam Lallana looking a major doubt for the Christmas programme, this appears to cement Puncheon’s start, although Fantasy managers will need to weigh up the impact that the Saints’ skipper’s absence will have on Adkins’ outfit and Puncheon’s potential.