World Cup – Matchday Three Lessons Learnt

After 15 days of continuous World Cup football the group stage has finally come to an end, with a one day hiatus from the tournament today we cast our eye back over a goal filled 48 games and assess the lessons learnt and how they will affect team selection for the knockout rounds starting on Saturday.

Messi vs Neymar

So far this world cup has been lit up by the individual performances of star players but two players seem locked in a dual to be crowned player of the tournament and more importantly lift the world cup, the players’ names, Messi and Neymar, yes both Arjen Robben and James Rodriguez are in the conversation, but neither have had to live up the high expectations that were placed on the shoulders of Messi and Neymar pre-tournament.

It is becoming increasingly obvious that both Messi and Neymar have to be in your fantasy line-ups. Neymar outscored Messi in the opening round notching twice but failed to deliver in the 2nd round of games, he then produced 2 more goals in the final group game. Messi has been slightly more consistent with a goal in each of his first 2 games, he was able to keep pace with his Barcelona teammate’s world cup goal tally notching twice more in the final group game leaving the pair (along with Thomas Muller) locked on 4 goals topping the scoring charts. Messi is currently ahead of Neymar 31 to 27 in the fox sports game but in the McDonalds game its Neymar edging out Messi 37 points to 35.

The cards start to mount up

With 48 games played the yellow cards have started to mount up and any player with one already attached to his name will have to navigate the next 2 games without another booking to avoid a suspension. After the quarter finals the slate is wiped clean for the semi-finals meaning only a red card will see a player suspended for the final.

Two players heading into the knock out stage have already served their 2 yellow card 1 game suspension, Robin Van Persie and Yohan Cabaye. A cynical man would suggest both Van Persie and Cabaye intentionally got bookings in order to miss their final group games, in Van Persie’s case he was booked with the score 1-1 so this may not have been intentional but Cabaye’s second yellow of the tournament occurred with his team 5-2 up against Switzerland and progression almost assured, intentional?. In any case both will be available for their last 16 ties.

In games where there are limited free transfers between rounds knowing who is one booking away from suspension will inform transfer decisions, currently there are 45 players with one yellow card and big name players such as Neymar, Thiago Silva, Luis Gustavo, Arturo Vidal, Marcos Rojo, Patrice Evra, Paul Pogba and Diego Godin are all just one booking away from a 1 game suspension.

Picking a starting line-up for the knockouts

Now its knockout football and as teams leave the completion it is inevitable we will have to replace players in our line-ups, ideally we want to do this with the least amount of hits for minus points transfers. In most game formats we are given only a few free transfers between each round (McDonalds you have unlimited), so  decisions have to be made on how to play the knockout part of the tournament, do you go “all in” with 3 players form 4 teams hoping they will make up the 4 semi-finalists (remember the 4 semi-finalists will all play in the final round in the final and 3rd place playoff) or spread the wealth, picking the best players from each nations knowing that half your team could be eliminated each round.

My preference would be a little of both, load up with 4/5 players from one nation that has an easy route to the semi-finals (Argentina or Holland look good bets) and fill the rest with top players from other nations especially whilst there are still mismatches in quality to take advantage of e.g. Germany vs Algeria. In the FOX sports game having a spread of players in each game gives a better shot at harvesting more of those 3 bonus points whilst if the unthinkable does happen and your “all in” team gets knocked out early the FOX sports game offers the wildcard option, allowing you to replace all your players with no minus points incurred

The knock out stage is set up like this

1st half

Winner of Brazil vs Chile – will play – winner of Colombia vs Uruguay

Winner of France vs Nigeria – will play – winner of Germany vs Algeria

2nd half

Winner of Holland vs Mexico – will play – winner of Costa Rica Greece

Winner of Argentina vs Switzerland – will play – winner of Belgium vs USA

So who’s going to progress?

Argentina have what looks like an easy route to the semis, just kicking into gear and with Lionel Messi now in full flow loading up on Argentines seems like a good tactic, if the unthinkable happens and they lose to USA, Belguim or the Swiss then managers need only use the wild card option in FOX game to replace your Argentines. Messi is a must, Angel Di Maria has a share of set pieces with defenders Ezequiel Garay and Marcos Rojo are up from the back for every corner and the latter has already produced a goal from a set piece.

Brazil have a tough road to reach the semis. First up an exciting Chile side full of attacking talent, but one that is vulnerable at set pieces and counter attacks down the flanks behind their attacking fullbacks, Brazil will be confident of progression. Next up would be either a Colombian side bang in form or an old adversary in the shape of Uruguay, with all their experience they could make this a difficult game for Brazil. Neymar is the only option here, he is the spark for the Brazilian side, the rest of the squad hasn’t lived up to expectations and whilst a tough game against Chile lies in wait I can’t see much point in stocking up on Brazilian assets outside of Neymar.

If Brazil falter Chile will prosper, they have already proved to be a real force. Exciting and adventurous in attack able to switch formations to suit to different opponents they will be confident of beating Colombia or Uruguay if they can get past Brazil. Sanchez is the star man, but Vargas offers cheaper attacking option whilst Vidal is almost back to full fitness, picking to go with Neymar is a solid tactic, knowing one of your start players is assured of a quarter finals appearance.

Holland have an easy path to the semis if they can overcome Mexico who have struggled to score historically and in this tournament, only scoring 3 times after Croatia were reduced to 10 men. Their quarter finalist opponents would be the winner of Costa Rica or Greece, neither should pose much threat to a Holland side that has already seen off Spain and Chile. More reasons to jump on the Robben and Van Persie bandwagon but grabbing a Dutch defensive asset or two would be worthwhile, Vlaar, De Viji or for more attacking options either Blind or Janmatt.

Germany have the biggest mismatch in terms of talent against paired with Algeria, loading up on German assets for this game is a must, Mats Hummels or the even cheaper Beni Hoewdes are the defensive options, whilst Muller classified as a midfielder in most games is probably the better fantasy option over Muest Ozil or the cheaper Toni Kroos, but doubling up on German midfielders is a solid tactic for this game.

France will have a tougher game than many expect against Nigeria, they have impressed so far but that was in probably the easiest group. Nigeria have already proven to be tough in defence an and gave Argentina a good game. If the French progress its likely Germany waiting for them in the quarters. I will be veering away from all French players.

Colombia are the wildcard they could sweep past Uruguay or the experienced Uruguayans could knock them out but without Luis Suarez they lack firepower and I can’t see them beating the inform Colombians. James Rodriquez, is the main attraction but Cuadrado is the cheaper alternative, both could struggle against a well drilled defensive Uruguayan side.

I’ve glossed over Belgium, they have been unimpressive thus far, and a tough game lies against the USA who are well drilled and athletic, I expect Belgium to edge it, just barely. Whoever wins will be up against Argentina in the quarters and I don’t like their chances.

So onto the least attractive looking last 16 tie…

Costa Rica vs Greece to offer plenty of potential bargains

Before the tournament started it was a 3 way race to claim the top two spots in group D between Italy Uruguay and England, but it was Costa Rica who progressed to the last 16. The supposed whipping boys of the group outplayed both Uruguay and Italy and got the point needed to top the group against England and Jorge Luis Pinto’s “brave bulls” have set up a last 16 tie against another surprise package Greece. Greece looked down and out after 3nil loss and a boring goalless draw, but a last minute penalty handed them progression to the last 16.

Some will think that this last 16 tie will be the worst of the 8 games and that will be likely true but it does provide fantasy managers a good opportunity, at this stage in the competition the lower ranked teams and also cheaply priced players have exited the tournament, suddenly filling an 11/15 man rosters can be tricky left with only top priced assets form big teams to choose from. Costa Rica and Greece players offer some bargain budget players to help fill out our expensive line-ups, Campbell could be a worthwhile budget striker and in the popular FOX sports game Geece keepers Karnezis if able to play following injury or backup Glykos could be your budget keeper of choice otherwise Costa Rican keeper Navas up against a Greek side that has only 1 goal form open play all tournament is a good choice. Cholevas is probably the best of the three cheapest Greek defenders and will offer a slim attacking threat. Duarte is the cheapest you can get in defence for Costa Rica and like Navas will benefit from goal shy Greece. Tejeda started all 3 group games and would make ideal 5th midfielder on the bench, leaving plenty of budget for other more attacking talents.