Is Sturridge More Or Less Valuable Post-Suarez?

When a world-class player like Luis Suarez departs a team and is not replaced with a player of similar ability, it is common for former team-mates to suffer and not produce on the same level. Even ignoring the direct contribution of Suarez to Liverpool last season in terms of goals and assists, world-class players like him demand more attention from opposition teams as they double or even triple up on players such as Suarez or Eden Hazard, leaving more space and opportunities for their team-mates to score and assist.

Despite the departure of Suarez and the price-hikes of his team mates Daniel Sturridge and Raheem Sterling this season –Sturridge, at 11.5, is now the third most expensive striker in the game – I am surprised that both have the third highest ownership of any player in their position in the Fantasy Premier League game (at the time of writing). Sturridge is being considered one of ‘The Holy Trinity’ of most popular big-hitting strikers (along with Rooney and Costa). As a non-Sturridge owner this got me thinking… in a post-Suarez era is his premium price-tag justified?

The Story Last Season

Last Season Suarez missed the first five Premier League games while he was serving a suspension for bite-gate 2013. He then played almost every minute of the remaining 33 league matches*. In the first five Premier League games of last season Liverpool only scored five goals a rate of 1.0 goals per game. In the 33 remaining league games Liverpool scored 96 goals at a rate of 2.9 goals per game. This statistic alone should be cause for concern for those considering any big investment in Liverpool forwards.

Sturridge Stat Attack

When investigating individual goals scored, the story is a little less clear cut. Sturridge did score four of the five goals (0.8 goals per game) in the five games without Suarez, but in his 25 remaining league games he scored at a rate of 0.7 goals per game. In other words, Sturridge scored more goals per game last season when he wasn’t partnered by Suarez. So was Sturridge a bigger goal threat without Suarez? Suddenly that 2.5 price hike seems much more reasonable, or does it? Unfortunately, goals per game don’t tell the full story.

For those first five weeks Sturridge was not substituted once and missed no games through injury, so his 0.8 goals per game also equated to 0.8 goals per 90 minutes. When you calculate the per 90 minute goals for Sturridge for the rest of the season he actually scored 0.84 goals per 90 minutes when Suarez was on the pitch. Assuming Sturridge plays every Premier League minute of the season, that equates to a difference of -2 goals per season without Suarez (that’s -8 Fantasy football points to you and me). Of course with Sturridge’s hamstrings, Champions League football and the signing of the formidable Rickie Lambert, that is unlikely, therefore it’s probably better to work from the minutes played by Sturridge last year (2269). Assuming Sturridge plays that number of games, it would equate to a difference of -1 goal for the season (that’s -4 Fantasy football points to you and me).

Not a huge difference you say (and you’d be right), however the factor that has the biggest potential impact on Sturridge’s Fantasy football point-haul this season is the potential reduction in his assists. Last season Sturridge had no assists in the games he played without Suarez, which is not surprising when you consider that he was passing to less accomplished strikers than Suarez in the final third and that Liverpool scored far fewer goals without Suarez on the pitch. For the remainder of the season Sturridge completed seven assists in what equated to twenty 90-minute games (0.35 assists per game), that’s -21 Fantasy Football Points to you and me.

Trusted Alternatives

If Sturridge had continued as the lone striker last season without Suarez on the pitch he would likely have scored only 172 points (not adjusting for loss/gain in bonus points). This would have been comparable to the final tallies of Giroud, Lambert, Lukaku, Bony and Dzeko (+/- 15 points), all of whom are around the 7.5-9.0 price at this stage in the season. With his high price tag and Liverpool’s difficult early fixtures (Man City, Spurs & West Ham away and Everton at home in the first five games) I think there are better alternatives to Sturridge for the first few Gameweeks. Here, I examine which of those proven forwards are the best options for the first five Gameweeks.

Olivier Giroud 8.5 (187 pts)

Giroud played more minutes than any of the below to reach his tally of 187 points last season and, with Wenger declaring him lacking match fitness ahead of the Gunners opener against Crystal Palace, is not nailed on. Additionally, difficult early fixtures (Palace and Man City at home and Everton away in the first five games) mean it may be prudent to look elsewhere for the beginning of the season.

Verdict – Gamble

Rickie Lambert 7.5 (179 pts)

Lambert also played significantly more minutes than any of the below options to reach his tally of 197 points last season. With questions over his playing time at new club Liverpool and their difficult early fixtures, Lambert does not seem a good investment.

Verdict – Steer Clear

Romelu Lukaku 9.0  (168pts)

Lukaku played a comparable number of minutes last season to Bony, Sturridge and Dzeko but, like Giroud, is lacking match fitness ahead of Everton’s curtain raiser at Leicester. This, combined with Everton’s difficult early fixtures (at home to Arsenal and Chelsea and away to Palace in the first five games) mean there may better options elsewhere. However, it is worth noting that Lukaku has a knack of scoring against stronger opposition and so he may be worth a gamble.

Verdict – Gamble

Wilfried Bony 8.5 (158pts)

Bony had a very successful end to the 2013-14 season, and while Swansea have a few tricky fixtures away in the first few games (at Chelsea and Man United) it remains to be seen whether recent investment in the squad (with Gomis arriving from Ligue 1) will provide better service for him in the coming season.

Verdict – Gamble

Edin Dzeko 8.5 (157pts)

Played fewer minutes than any of the comparable strikers in this list last season but still managed a high points total. With Negredo injured and Aguero lacking match fitness, Dzeko seems assured of a good number of minutes in the first few Gameweeks. Man City have a few tricky fixtures (Liverpool at home and Arsenal away) but Dzeko seems by far the best proven centre-forward in this price bracket on offer at the moment.

Verdict – Good Buy

*Suarez was subbed off in the 89th Minute against West Brom, the 92nd Minute against Norwich City, and the 86th minute against Arsenal at Anfield. After Suarez returned from suspension, no League goals were scored by Liverpool when he was not on the pitch.