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The Numbers Game – Forward Thinking Full-Backs

As Branislav Ivanovic blazes a trail near the top of the defender rankings, it seems timely to put the position under further analysis by assessing the attacking potential of the Serb’s rivals. In this latest article for our members, we analyse the early-season data in an attempt to examine the cast of defenders offering the potential of returns at both ends of the pitch.

With Leighton Baines an ever present in such analysis, and new top flight arrivals Aaron Cresswell and Kieran Trippier receiving plenty of hype in pre-season, the attacking full-back shows great promise as a potential differential target.

This is compounded by this season’s changes to the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) bonus point system (BPS) calculation that has reduced the penalty handed out to players who raid forward to take on opponents. While it’s too early to confirm the impact of this change, it’s worth noting that four of the top five BPS scorers in defence are full-backs – right now, the dominant centre-back is not having it all his own way.

The starting point for our analysis was a custom stats table which captured a series of key indicators identified as important factors when assessing the attacking potential of a defender. We’ve chosen to sort our table by “Touches in the Final Third” in order to capture those defenders who have joined the attack most often. We’ve also included data that captures their effectiveness in terms of crossing and chances created, whilst also assessing Clearances, Blocks and Interceptions (CBI) as a means of further examining the bonus point potential of the listed candidates.

Our custom table has been made public and can be accessed here. The table will go on collecting data each week, offering a constant updated snapshot of our analysis. For now, however, let’s examine the data after the opening two Gameweeks.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

1,253 Comments Post a Comment
  1. McSauce
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Ship Costa or stick? How long we reckon he is out?

    1. HUMZAH96
        9 years, 8 months ago

        Stick. 0 games.

      • Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 8 months ago

        Get on with it!

    2. Wilshere Knowledge
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      Akpom has notched a hat-trick tonight for thr U21's. Who says we need a striker? 😉 😀

        • 10 Years
        9 years, 8 months ago

        o/

      1. tarkaston
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 8 months ago

        And we still have Afobe 😉

      2. HUMZAH96
          9 years, 8 months ago

          Why is your gravy like that if you're an Arsenal fan?

          1. Wilshere Knowledge
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            I lost a bet. 👿

            1. HUMZAH96
                9 years, 8 months ago

                LMAO

              • 10 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              gravy 😆

          • 10 Years
          9 years, 8 months ago

          Word of warning to Rooney captainers......

          LVG and Roy Hodgson have also done this. Never a good sign.

          😯 😛

          1. Screaming Midget
            • 14 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            Also, Burnley can be pretty tight at home. I'm not convinced Rooney(c) is the right choice.

            1. chrisjdgrady
              • 10 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              If we're not confident in captaining Rooney against a promoted team, why the hell do any of us have him in our teams?

              1. Screaming Midget
                • 14 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                There's more to just the next fixture though.

                • 10 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                if he was at home, I would. tricky place to go though (stats back this up, not just a cliché!) 😛

              2. QPR expects... glory!
                • 13 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                We were a lot more confident whilst he was on tour in the USA and UTD looked like they might be good rather than this shower of sh*t!

          2. The Hound
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            I think Rooney will get 8 points. Siggy however is gonna rock up with 15! Siggy (c)

        • Kerrazy
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 8 months ago

          Costa. For a -4, stick or twist? Fronline are Jovetic, Rooney, Costa....

          1. The Hound
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            If he's ruled out I'm getting jovetic -4.

          2. The Wayfarer
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            I'd say stick. He's only gonna be out for one GW it seems, if at all.

        • Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          9 years, 8 months ago

          Anybody gonna captain Sigurdsson?

          1. Somalion
            • 14 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            Mayhaps.

          2. A.T
            • 13 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            o/

          3. chrisjdgrady
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            probably not, but it's tempting

          4. The Hound
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            95% decided this. Seems like a good week for (c) punt.

            • 10 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            Not with the whole Bony/Bafetimbi squit from Monk again.

            1. Evs
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 14 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              What's this ?

              1. Ludo
                • 10 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                Chance of 4-4-2 with Gomis and Bony both up top.

                1. The Hound
                  • 12 Years
                  9 years, 8 months ago

                  Don't do this too me......hope he doesn't change a winning 11.

                • 10 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2014/08/28/scout-mission-gameweek-3/

                “Obviously we want them all to push each other and every striker will want to be top scorer, but it's about them working together which they've done very well in pre-season and been great with each other on the training field.

                “Through the season we'll see different things: they'll play as lone strikers, they'll play as a pair, use them in different ways.”

                Just the fact he's talking about it still worries me....

        • the axolotl
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 8 months ago

          burning question. will cissokho give up his #23 jersey to tom cleverly given his likely arrival at villa?

          at 8million! ranks alongside andy carroll as the worst transfer i've ever heard of

        • Djerbil
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 8 months ago

          Hull needs 2 goals to progress now

          Hull becomes a great option now in FPL if they are knocked out

          1. QPR expects... glory!
            • 13 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            They were a better one in UFPL if they did progress. All those cheap Sunday players!

        • goriuanx
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 8 months ago

          https://twitter.com/DavidAmoyal/status/505071361115840514

          Evil Kagawa to join Dortmund

          1. Yome
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            Finally his nightmare is over. Now it is #FreeDiMaria the next cause of concern

        • andy85wsm
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 8 months ago

          I need to make a t-shirt.

          "I used my wildcard too early and this was all I could come up with!"

          https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwJnzcnCQAE6hC6.png:large

            • 10 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            Interesting. 😛 3-4-3 will be the long-term way though, so I'd go with that if I was WC-ing now.

            1. andy85wsm
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 13 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              Will it? Fitting in the big 3 hitters is tough.

              If one of the 6-9m strikers takes off I can downgrade a midfielder easy enough.

                • 10 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                you say that now.... never easy though..

          1. Screaming Midget
            • 14 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            Doubling up on WHU? That takes balls!

            1. Screaming Midget
              • 14 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              Sorry, meant Southampton.

            2. andy85wsm
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 13 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              Doubling up on Southampton 🙂

            3. andy85wsm
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 13 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              I could get Rose instead of Clyne but I like Southampton's fixtures.

        • Wild Rover
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 8 months ago

          Danielzinho 😆

        • sinik
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 8 months ago

          someone was saying Aguero was tackled in training?

          1. The Hound
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            I'm sure he was lol

          2. HUMZAH96
              9 years, 8 months ago

              Kolarov, not sure how bad it was...

            • andy85wsm
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 13 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              He was.

            • Yome
              • 12 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              Yeah by Kolarov. Aguero has been confirmed 100% fit so no worries

              1. sinik
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                cool beans

            • goriuanx
              • 13 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              Not sure what's wrong with a footballer being tackled 😀

              1. sinik
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                if I was Pelle I'd tell the boys to take it easy on ol' wet tissue!

              2. Podge
                • 13 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                The mail got a pic of it and made a story up that he was injured

          3. bazrah99
            • 14 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            Can Di Maria go up this week?

            1. andy85wsm
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 13 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              No

            2. BDMC5
              • 14 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              nope, ask same question earlier

              1. bazrah99
                • 14 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                Thanks both

            3. The Hound
              • 12 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              No, protected for 10 days I think it is from when added. Maybe 7 tho but one of the 2 can't remember.

          4. BDMC5
            • 14 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            Papers seem to be running with costa is in contention for everton but very unlikely to be risked vs everton in fear it could turn niggle into a more long term issue. With drogba in the wings, i get the feeling he may rest costa.

          5. Ramboo
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            Any news about Costa and his injury? Are the rumours about Aguero true?

            Might just do Costa --> Jovetic, but i have to do it tonight....

            1. Evs
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 14 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              Why tonight ?

              1. Ramboo
                • 10 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                Money

                1. Evs
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  • 14 Years
                  9 years, 8 months ago

                  But they aren't due to rise are they?

                  1. Ramboo
                    • 10 Years
                    9 years, 8 months ago

                    Well... I tought so, but i checked now, and they are not. Guess i dont have to do it tonight then! 😀 Good for me!

                    But do we know anything about the Aguero rumours?

          6. Hibbopotamus
            • 9 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            Is there any danger in having Aguero and Jove in the same front line? Would be in a 3-4-3 with Rooney if Costa is out for a significant amount of time (people saying now that he won't be but still). Not sure if it's good to stock up on one team's forwards, even if it's City.

          7. Gargamel
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            Seb Larsson is getting a lot of transfers in. I'd advice against that personally. If you played a value game over the season he'd probably be alright for 5.5m as you can expect 100-125 points, but for actual FPL I think he's highly likely to disappoint you even if the Sunderland fixtures are good.

            Might even be one of those who you feel you have to keep because of fixtures despite not doing well - the worst type of player!

            1. A.T
              • 13 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              +1

            2. SW6
              • 11 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              Agree completely. I always imagine his attacking returns to be utterly unpredictable as many come from set-pieces too.

            3. The Hound
              • 12 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              Feel this may happen with my Man U players

            4. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              Wise words.

            5. Heydudes13
              • 12 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              Reminds me of Michu last year that last bit.

            6. Ludo
              • 10 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              Good point. Reliant on set pieces, so probably impossible to play the fixtures with him, too.

              1. Screaming Midget
                • 14 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                Unless he's vs a team who give away a lot of set pieces! 😀

          8. tw
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            hull probably out. need to score 2 more to progress

            1. A.T
              • 13 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              First team playing?

              1. tw
                • 12 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                mcgregor, rosenior, chester, davies, figueroa, elmohamady, meyler, livermore, brady, aluko, sagbo

                brady brace btw

              • 10 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              *1 😉

              1. tw
                • 12 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                😀

            2. Kerz
              • 9 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              Good for FPL.

            3. bazrah99
              • 14 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              There's one

          9. Ludo
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            People not captaining Ramsey because 'he's unlikely to score for 3 games in a row' or similar - the chances of him scoring against Leicester are completely independent of what he's done in the past.

              • 10 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              don't start this! 😆 had a massive conversation on here last season re Studge scoring 10 in a row! painful 😆

              1. Bubz
                • 10 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                I remember that

            1. sinik
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              my friend once thought that if the ball fell red on roulette, it had a better chance of falling black the next roll..

              😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆

              1. Kerz
                • 9 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                There's a difference between odds involving lifeless events and humans, irrational actors.

                1. sinik
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  9 years, 8 months ago

                  it's a funny aside, relax.

              2. The Wayfarer
                • 10 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                😀

              3. Podge
                • 13 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                Nah it goes red red black red black 😉

                1. sinik
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  9 years, 8 months ago

                  🙄

              4. Heydudes13
                • 12 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                Thats tru m8

            2. Snikii
              • 9 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              its not independent, him scoring in the past suggest a higher chance of him scoring again

            3. Wilshere Knowledge
              • 10 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              He's probably more likely because he is flying high! 😀

            4. Heydudes13
              • 12 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              Think Giroud out is really not good news for him. Said before that he will have less balls to run onto from deep now. Could easily effect amount of chances he has per game.

              Leicester look a team more than the sum of their parts though, be aware.

              1. Heydudes13
                • 12 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                Affect* again

          10. Andre W
            • 9 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            2-1 Hull Brady

          11. Sarnab
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            Brady second goal

            • 10 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            bradywagon

          12. Sarnab
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            Brady to oust Robertson now?

            1. QPR expects... glory!
              • 13 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              Don't see why he would if Elmohamady and Rosenior are the wing backs tonight. Brady more likely to oust Ince

          13. HUMZAH96
              9 years, 8 months ago

              Anyone know why my gravatar won't show? I've followed all the steps and it doesn't work...

              1. Podge
                • 13 Years
                9 years, 8 months ago

                Did you rate it R ?

                1. HUMZAH96
                    9 years, 8 months ago

                    PG...

                2. A.T
                  • 13 Years
                  9 years, 8 months ago

                  Did you select a G rating and use the same email address you've got for here?

                  1. HUMZAH96
                      9 years, 8 months ago

                      No, PG and yes...

                      1. Lazarus Star
                        • 10 Years
                        9 years, 8 months ago

                        You need to set to G...I just learnt this.

                3. Joga Bonito®
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 12 Years
                  9 years, 8 months ago

                  Brady started last season strong and was on penalties. Shame he got injured. Could he be an option?

                  1. The Wayfarer
                    • 10 Years
                    9 years, 8 months ago

                    Was looking great last year, had a couple of double figure scores early on. His injury dragged on and eventually ruined his season, real shame alright. Could well be an option this season, definitely.

                  2. Canadian Football
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 12 Years
                    9 years, 8 months ago

                    he has always been on my radar....one of my highlights of a miserable season. Would love it if he could nail down a spot and become my 4th mid....would free up loads of cash

                4. tw
                  • 12 Years
                  9 years, 8 months ago

                  Doos - transfer(s) this week?

                  1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 14 Years
                    9 years, 8 months ago

                    Just the one, Mrs. Wembley.

                    Sanogo to Naismith. Sunday.

                5. tw
                  • 12 Years
                  9 years, 8 months ago

                  paulinho goal. spurs up 4-1 on aggregate

                6. Wouter
                  • 9 Years
                  9 years, 8 months ago

                  I know none of you probably care but wanted to share that my team drew 1-1 (away) in the first leg. Just now we were 3-0 up after 50 minutes. They get back to 3-3 in the 80th minute. In the 93rd minute we score the 4-3. This is amazing.

                  1. Wilshere Knowledge
                    • 10 Years
                    9 years, 8 months ago

                    😀 Football eh!? 😉

                7. derOttmar
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  9 years, 8 months ago

                  How close is TotalFPL with estimating the price changes, especially the drops as it seems quite a lot of players staying over 100% for a day or two...

                8. HUMZAH96
                    9 years, 8 months ago

                    I think captains choic will go down to deadline...

                    • 10 Years
                    9 years, 8 months ago

                    paulinho goal and assist.
                    FYI, no implication suggested. 😉