If you really do care about a Fantasy Premier League (FPL) manager’s track record in order to follow their advice, then I’ll admit that this article may not be for you.
My journey in this game has never been great. It started as a casual thing with friends just out of FOMO around 2010/11, even though I would only watch games involving the ‘big six’. I had absolutely no idea what expected goals (xG) or expected assists (xA) meant, and my idea was to simply pick the player that had been doing well in other people’s teams – the ones with ‘green’ fixtures coming up.
I used to make transfers while the previous Gameweek was being played, again, out of FOMO. On many occasions, the players I bought would get injured or sent off, so I’d just feel unlucky and move on.
Returning to Fantasy
Over time, I naturally stopped playing. But when summer 2018 came around, it felt like a good idea to try World Cup Fantasy. I took part and beat most of my friends. One replied with “Meet me in FPL and let’s see what you’ve got”. Ok then.
Of course, I opened the app and didn’t recognise a soul. Are these players real, or has my friend tricked me into downloading a fake app?
Anyway, there was a period where I was only applying for jobs and watching FPL content to absorb information. That season’s template was so strong that I started in the top 15k but, newly employed, the game received less attention, and my rank fell. That really became my pattern: an early riser who can’t finish even half a season.
However, as philosopher Emil Cioran would say, it’s only failure that gets you closer to knowledge. Big words for FPL, and I hope you recognise the slight sarcasm in it.
Although if you’re at a school reunion, would you rather spend time with that friend who married their sweetheart and succeeded in their first job? Or the one who failed in their quest for love and money? In FPL, I’m the latter.
With that in mind, I want to highlight what I think is the key to doing well at this. You see, I probably like thinking about that more than actually playing FPL itself.
What should FPL managers consistently do?
You really need to look at the data, mate. This isn’t straightforward because (a) people may not find the time or energy to do that every week, and (b) what does ‘data’ even mean?
The first issue is easier to address nowadays because there are some great graphics and podcasts out there. People are giving you all the data and context you need.
The second one is trickier. The basic metrics I think most can get by with are non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI), the position and quantity of shots, plus big chances both for the player themselves and ones created for teammates. Each of these throughout the last four Gameweeks.
It’s even better if players take penalties or play out of position, as Stuart Dallas and John Lundstram did.
I like this stat combination, as it eliminates those who rack up lots of low xG chances (often Manchester United players) because they don’t know what to do with the ball. By just shooting from any angle and position, they accumulate a decent-looking xG that’s actually not so good.
If the players from my stat selection are underperforming, investigate why. Don’t assume that they’ll soon feast.
Were the misses due to good goalkeeping, or because they are poor finishers who get into great positions? Perhaps they’re repeatedly setting up these Darwin Núñez imitations. What if they’re just trying to find form after recovering from injury? Were such high numbers spread consistently or part of a freak outlying match?
What chasing the upside looks like
This line keeps getting repeated in the community when trying to justify an ‘exciting’ transfer. Well, this is sometimes the right call, but not something that will often pay off.
To me, the upside player is one who I’d list among the best captains in each of the next three Gameweeks. That’s likelier to work consistently.
Have a stable long-term team
It’s tempting to look at your team and think a particular player is the one needed to create a perfect XI for that week. But this will soon lead you into a dead end, where a chip or many transfers are needed to fix it. If this is your strategy, ok.
Yet a more sustainable approach is to start with a team that can do just fine almost every week. Then you’re in a better position for those luxury transfers.
So, when buying and selling, make sure this new player will make your team better for a long period of time. Tricky when early-season data is scarce, begin with well-known individuals and assess the rest. Identifying the set-and-forget picks is a better use of transfers than a weekly punt.
Another benefit of recognising those long-term value picks early on is that you can have depth in your squad for when injuries occur. This is even easier now that defensive contribution (DefCon) points exist, as some ultra-cheap defenders and midfielders practically have a four-point floor in most games.
Admittedly, it’s not always clear-cut. But returning to these basics will solve a lot of your FPL dilemmas.
If it’s that easy, why isn’t everybody doing it?
The very reason why there’s a chance for more people to do well is the same as why they can’t use this chance. More data is now readily available from different places that are becoming extremely competitive. Such noise and distraction make it tough to know whether you’re picking a player because of hype or personal judgement.
I would say most engaged managers don’t look at the data themselves, relying on social media content creators for this. This means seeing loads of teams and players every week. People locking in their teams ahead of the deadline, and they all look like Free Hit teams, except they are their regular ones. People witnessing the hype for certain players building up after the deadline, people bragging about picking and captaining that player with a mega-haul. And they only surface after the player does such a haul.
In this environment, the following fallacies are extremely difficult to avoid:
Panic over not having each week’s perfect XI
Based on points scored over the last five seasons, scoring 2,450 typically gives you a top 10k finish. An average of roughly 64 per week.
So, a mentality of “which player should I buy this week to achieve 100 points?” is almost certainly worse than “which purchase can maintain an average of 60 projected points each Gameweek?”
It’ll often mean saying no to the latest hot pick. But, many times, your boring pick who’s been giving four-to-eight points over the last few weeks will then turn up with a big surprise in that very week. Sometimes, it’s even the dull £4.5m defender kept on the bench until for a rainy day who provides that surprise and preserves a free transfer.
Thinking you’ve found that ‘golden opportunity’ while nobody looks
This one likes to haunt people who watch a lot of football. They know the history of players and teams, what they’re capable of, so they’re desperate to use that knowledge to get ahead, even when the data and minutes aren’t backing this up.
A clear example this season is Nico O’Reilly (£6.3m). He advanced high up the pitch during August’s Community Shield. We remember what he’s capable of from last season. So, even when he’s benched or showing poor data, some will insist he’s still a golden opportunity that nobody is looking at.
Well, of course, it can be. But repeatedly punting like this goes against the core recommendation of team stability.
Zooming in on picks and not meta
I’m going to start with the counter-argument here. We get points from picks and not team structure. Meaning, if we both have the exact same layout, with one £6.0m slot, and your pick gets 20 points and mine gets two, you’re ahead.
Well, not quite. Team structures often revolve around premiums – the source of big points over time because they are consistent and capable of captaincy. Deciding the strategy around premiums dictates your team structure. This sorts out the biggest sources of points.
Cheaper picks are usually the streaky ones, affected more by fixtures, so that’s where the variance tends to occur. So, every pick matters, but having the best strategy around team structure gives you access to those streaky and trendy good picks, and it wouldn’t matter much if you lost 10-15 points because you went for Harvey Barnes (£6.1m) instead of Kevin Schade (£6.2m), because you’d still have access to this bag of picks and get the next streaky one.
But meta isn’t only about team structure. It’s also the approach, the background on which you draw. For instance, teams are very close this season. With new managers coming into the league, everything is possible. I won’t be surprised if Tottenham Hotspur either shoot up to fifth or fight relegation again.
Thinking like this, I trust mid-table teams more when facing the alleged ‘big six’. In previous seasons, travelling to face Manchester City was often an impossible fixture for both attackers and defenders. But I wouldn’t worry about it this season.
Another example is that some teams are good at training and scouting for specific positions. Brentford have always had great poachers up front, and Crystal Palace love their defenders. These are the sort of places I would look. Good early vibes from a Brentford striker would hit differently, as I trust them more.
Additionally, try to identify the mid-table team that’s due a breakout season. One with a stable manager that brings in good players and has no European competition. Previously, we’re talking You’d then be able to find Nuno Espírito Santo’s Wolverhampton Wanderers, Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth, Unai Emery’s Aston Villa and Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United.
At the end of the day, luck is the biggest factor in FPL. Rolling the dice consistently, long-term, would get you to high ranks in most seasons. But, in the short term, your amazing strategy can get undone by four injuries, where a ripple effect ruins the next few Gameweeks.
Some get things right for the wrong reasons and vice versa, so take it with grace and keep rolling the dice. But it’s also worth remembering that FPL is only a game. Good luck!
