Promoted Teams Analysis – The Defence

The Fantasy Football Scout members area offers a wealth of information on which teams are thriving going forward or remaining solid at the back. I’ve decided to focus on the information available on the three promoted teams in the hope of uncovering some cheap gems for the future. This article looks at those three teams’ defensive stats so far.

Burnley

Points wise, Burnley have not started particularly well, picking up just a single point from a possible nine. However, when we consider they have played CHE, swa, MUN this points tally is not surprising. My own personal thoughts are Burnley have been playing well, and if they show the same resolve throughout the campaign I expect them to have a real shot at staying up. Subjective opinions aside, let’s take a look at the stats:

Defensive stats

With one clean sheet to their name thus far, against MUN, Burnley’s stats are most encouraging, as they are happily nestled in tenth place for shots conceded inside the box (19), which is only one fewer than MCI (18) and equal to LIV. Furthermore, they sit in second place for those conceded outside the box (9), trailing only ARS (7) and comfortably beating the likes of CHE (19) and MCI (12). This suggests that, against less illustrious opponents, shots taken by the opposition, particularly outside the box, are going to be limited, which in theory should mean fewer goals against them.

Intriguingly, Burnley are second to only MUN (15) for crosses conceded from the right (18), however they have conceded an astonishing 45 crosses from the left. Clearly, teams are targeting the left side of the pitch, which could remain more open due to Kieren Tripper’s attacking intent. Burnley seem to be happy to let this continue, with stats showing that of these crosses only six have been successful in creating goalscoring chances from the right, with seven coming from the left, which is surprising considering the difference in the number of crosses coming in. I would expect more chances to start coming from the right if this trend continues.

Lastly, if we look at defender errors, Burnley sit in third place for challenges lost (30), perhaps indicative of their defensive naivety in this league – although they can boast that MCI have lost more challenges than them this year (36). Burnley will have to start winning more challenges, and stop conceding so many crosses from their right. If they can address this, I expect them to keep a fair few shut-outs this year.

QPR

QPR are a funny team. Having bought an entirely new backline over the summer, you would fancy them to show strong solidity. However an opening day loss to HUL at home, plus a battering from TOT caused many to turn away from their defensive assets. These people were richly rewarded (sarcasm) with a clean sheet against SUN as Caulker, their main target, dropped 0.1 in price.

Defensive stats

QPR’s defensive stats make for pretty grim reading. They sit in 16th place for shots conceded in the box (26) and 15th for shots conceded outside the box (19). Clearly, teams are getting away shots at an alarming rate, particularly when we consider that, TOT aside, HUL and SUN shouldn’t have been allowed to get this many shots away.

QPR have conceded 30 crosses from the left and 31 from the right, putting them mid-table for both respectively. However, when we look at whether these crosses are creating chances, those coming from the right flank have created an astounding 17 chances. So over a half of crosses from the right are finding a target. This urgently needs to be addressed by manager Harry Redknapp.

In terms of defensive errors, the experience of Rio Ferdinand and Steven Caulker fails to show here, too. They have lost 28 challenges, putting them 16th, and have made three errors – only EVE have made more.

Clearly, those, like myself, who are hanging on to Caulker are hoping for attacking returns, because these statistics do not suggest QPR are going to be keeping many clean sheets this year.

Leicester

Leicester took the Championship by storm last year, but in my opinion failed to strengthen the squad with enough Premiership quality and could struggle this term. With a horrible first few games (EVE, che, ARS), they’ve done very well to pick up two points, however. With five goals conceded in this spell, they’ve done it the hard way though.

Defensive stats

Leicester have conceded the most shots inside the box (34) and the most shots outside the box (30) than any other team in the Premier League. Given this startling revelation it’s remarkable that Leicester have only conceded five goals. To put this in perspective, WBA (18) and WHM (18) have conceded the same number of goals, with almost half as many shots being allowed to happen inside the box. Perhaps most alarming is that LEI have conceded nearly double the number of shots from outside the box as the next team (HUL; 18). These statistics alone should tell you to stay the hell away from LEI defensively, and back strikers playing them in a Gameweek. If this trend continues and one of your big hitters has a game against Leicester, chuck them the armband.

In terms of crosses conceded, LEI have only conceded 19 crosses from the left but have conceded 43 from the right – the most in the division. Similarly to Burnley (but on the opposite side), teams are targeting Paul Koncheksy, who in all fairness isn’t the greatest defender in the world (more subjectivity). Most importantly, these crosses that are being allowed to come from the right are leading to chances. 23 chances from 43 crosses is by far the highest in the division. Konchesky needs to get his act together and stop these crosses coming in, or Leicester are going to start being in a world of trouble.

Unfortunately for Leicester the bad news does not end there. They have lost the most challenges in the division (43) and made two errors (defensive slips). What more can I say – unless we see a complete turnaround, this is the definition of a team to avoid defensively.

Conclusion

By now it should be pretty clear. If you want a defender in your team who is likely to get a clean sheet, avoid QPR and, in particular, avoid LEI. Caulker probably doesn’t justify his 5.0 (4.9 now) price tag, but you would expect him to score soon after the sheer number of shots he’s been taking (check the tables… outrageous). I don’t think many people have gone with a Leicester defender, and I would advise keeping it this way. However as previously mentioned… struggling for a captain decision? Go with a player playing Leicester. You can almost guarantee he will have chances.

Burnley on the other hand seem a decent prospect now their fixtures have turned kinder, and the likes of Trippier and Jason Shackell are in my thoughts. If they can keep these stats up, clean sheets will come, and their next five games (cpl, SUN, wba, lei, WHM) actually all have potential for shut outs. It might be time to ditch Caulker in favour of one of these men.