We delve into the Gameweek 5 data this evening in our first members article of the week. Wayne Rooney’s new role for United comes under analysis, as do Burnley and Leicester’s displays up front, whilst a couple of north London-based frontmen are also placed under the microscope after their contrasting weekend performances.
Still Hazard (yeah I'm stubborn).
This.
+1
Fab until Hazard displays some regularity of returns.
Had Fabs from the start and would be reluctant to shift, but not sure, looks like Hazard is about to find his form.. If Costa got injured, I would probably double up.
I'd go Hazard, personally.
Got Fab and i wouldn't change though.
Hazard, but you cant ignore price.
I'm going for hazard
for all the talk about how Cesc is a better pick than Haz, he only has 8 points more than the Belgian marvel, and I will keep Haz in my team for the whole season (barring injuries). I'm convinced he'll score more points than Cesc by the end of the season (you can bookmark this).
Is Zabaleta available for the next game? He got a red but does he serve the suspension by not playing the cup tie today?
I keep looking at him..He's on -1 for the season so far !!!..Ownership should be about nil by next week...
Haha, I'm actually thinking because Sagna is available for a free in my draft league and my defense has a spot. Thinking of bringing him in just for a week - only if zaba is suspended though!
Zabaleta will serve his suspension midweek.
Thanks! Thought that must be the case.
This is going to sound crazy, but having 2 x FT is stopping me from Wc'ing. Seems like a waste.
Problem is I'll likely only use one this week and then have 2 again next week, stopping from using it again.
Meanwhile, Krul, Foster, Lovren, Eriksen, Davis, Rooney & Naismith continue to gather dust.
Foster might be alright now that Joleon is playing. I think I'm going a WBA double up this week 😮
Yeah me too 😮
Forgot about Lezzy, Irvine was singing his praises.
Reckon I should WC?Might be worth it.
Btw, look at Krul –> Mannone, looks like Don Vito is backYeah was looking at that, big 10 at the weekend.
Foster & Wisdom.
Ah I see you had both on the bench too 😐
Oh yeah 😎
Think about how you'd use the 2FTs and take a -4 hit - does that make the team look any better?
Yeah taught about that, but I reckon 80% of my hits fail 😀
Always result in a red arrow, due to around 4+2pts (costs of the hit)
Same issue/dilemma.
Think I might use only 1 FT for Naismith -> Pelle/Welbeck.
In my case, Krul Elliot Terry Chester Wisdom Marney & Rooney are the ones to gather the dust.Very similar situation. Wisdom might be okay for a few weeks (see above from Billy)
I am getting -8 this week to get rid of some of the dead weights. Need it to hold the slip. Foster looks good for this week, Lovren get QPR soon, davis is your 5th mid: so these are not big headache
what about: Eriksen,Rooney,Naismith -> Downing,Aguero,Pelle ? If budget allows of courseLovren, Eriksen & Naismith > Duff, Fabregas & Pelle for -4pts?
I like that actually.
That looks very sound business.
me likey
Lovren to Pva
Naismith to Welbeck
Eriksen to Fab
with that 2.9 itb does that work out?
Take the 4 point hit, team loads better, still got wc
Here?Cheers SAB, was just looking at a that....
Below, where i mis replied, other thought Chambers over PVA, probably right
Hazard love is in air.... Worth bringing if on WC? 😉
I'd definitely consider it, but the problem is who to leave out (I'm still a big fan of Alexis).
In my case, obviously for Fabregas or maybe Di Maria 🙂
Yup! I'm very sure I'll get him in place of ADM in 2-3 weeks.
May even double up with both him and Walcott later on.
Haz, Sterling, ADM, Fab, Siggy
Eriksen - any stats/tips? Or it's his time to go with no more chances.
Any Ramsey and Rooney thoughts are welcome too )
at the start of the season i decided to just have blind faith in eriksen and keep him until injury. i've still got him and i'm giving him this week but if he does not look good i'm probably gonna swap him out
That's the problem, Spurs are just incapable of scoring for now.
I'd get rid, too many other options.
Struggling on this one, any help much appreciated.
A) Alexis, Di Maria and Ulloa
B) Di Maria/Alexis, Siggy and Falcao
A would allow me to get Baines in a couple of weeks, B would leave me with a 5.5/6 defender instead.
Thanks guys!
a) seems the ticket. Ulloa has proven himself now i think.
I prefer A.
Cheers guys, I'll go with A!
If you buy FIFA in US PS Store.
And then log in into your Aussie PS ID and play FIFA.
When you play FUT which server will you be put into?absolutely no idea, can't you play the demo (or 14) for a few more days to eliminate the risk?
Could end up costing you -4
😀
Lovren to Pva
Naismith to Welbeck
Eriksen to Fab
with that 2.9 itb does that work out?
Take the 4 point hit, team loads better, still got wcLooks good to me.
Prefer Chambers to PVA, but yeap!
Reply fail to Jafooli
Oh...well Jafooli - it looks good!
😀 thanks
Cheers SAB, cash short by 0.2 , can get Duff.
Morning all
Would this be a good WC team for GW6 onwards?
Forster
Shawcross, Clyne, Duff
Siggy, Sterling, Ramsey, Fab, ADM
Pelle, Costa
Mannone, Dier, Wisdom, Vardy
...not sure who I'd bench. Mannone did me proud last week!
Cheers
WILDCARD team
A) Mannone, Moore, Boyd, Falcao / Sturridge (kun's olay time rotation and injury prone puts me off)
B) Forster, Wilson, Ramsey , Ulloa
XXX / Schmeichel
Duff, Chambers, Baines, Lovren, XXX
Fabregas, Di Maria, Sterling, Siggy, XXX
Costa, Welbeck, XXX
ThanksNaismith--->Pelle/Welbeck (-4)
Thoughts?
Cheers 🙂I'd wait until after the midweek games, could maybe hold Naismith for another week if that means avoiding a hit? If you'd have to take the hit anyway, do it this week.
I'll probs still have to take a hit next week
Cheers 🙂
Just do it! 😉
🙂 Which one though? On Pelle atm....with a potential swap in GW8 if needed.
More upside to Pellè atm. I will have both.
Mmm...I have Kun Rooney and Naismith ATM.
Roo and Naismith out for Costa nad Pelle this week.
Cheers
Naismith--->Pelle/Welbeck (without -4)
Thoughts? 😉
Think i'm going with Pelle, but I'll wait until after the Cup game between the two teams.Sounds good!
- Common misconceptions
Hello
I work as a data scientist, and I have noticed some common misconceptions on this site.
1. Being Due
There is no such thing. Scoring goals can be viewed as a random process, scoring a goal today doesn't make you more or less likely of scoring a goal tomorrow. What it does, is to give you a better idea of what the underlying chance is for a player to score in each game. It is possible that you suspect a player has underperformed, and that you are right about this. But that still only means that he has a higher chance of scoring in the next game than you would estimate based on his performance, not that he has a higher chance of scoring that players of similar skill level.
2. Overfitting.
Examples: "He scores well against West Ham", "He scores high in the beginning of the season only".
Nate Silver talks about this at length in his book "The Signal and the Noise". Humans have a large tendency to see more patterns that are actually there. I cannot offhand reject any of these hypotheses. But one could do an analysis of them and find out. And I'm confident that most of them wouldn't hold if this was done.
3. Coverage
Example: "I would prefer player X, but I got player Y to get coverage of team Z.
This concept doesn't make much sense, given that we are playing for total points. The point don't care much about your coverage. The one exception is captaincy. It is preferable to have your strongest players belong to different teams so that you have a good captain each week. Other than that coverage doesn't supply any advantage. It may feel like you are missing out if a big club gets a big haul and you don't have any of the players. But if you instead have a player who will get more points overall, that is better for you.Olé! 🙂
He's a scientist. This needs a Hulk and Hot topic!
Hello scientist!
Good read. #3 is nothing new, but 1 and 2 is really some food for thought. Cheers.What transfer should I do this week?
Costa out Vardy in!
Costa never scored against Villa before and he's certainly not due.
Done.
Is spread a better term than coverage?
always
wait, you're not talking about fantasy football, are you 😉 ?
Tina, read n.o 2.
I will take my chances feck you very much.
😀
😀
Only Doos & You can get away with theseBTW, it's gonna be nice kicking the nuts of an Indian in a Saffer team this GW.
🙄
The person who hulked this, only did it because he had no fecking idea what the post was about
🙄It's all true though.
Wrong side of bed? 😉
Floor.
Oh, no. What have you done?
Flirting again? 😉I wish. 7yr old vomiting. 4 yr old coughing. 4month old shitting.
😥Oh, Lord - I'm sorry. 🙁
Suarez vs Norwich says hi 😉
BOOM!
And greeting to you, Mr Single Data Point. 🙂
Link your team Scientist
No chance.
He/she has never posted on here in his/her life.
Smell.
Fish.
V nice summary.
On 3, coverage id disagree slightly. If the fixtures were this and you had 6 players-
A. Chelsea vs Stoke
B. Man City vs Leicester
C. Arsenal vs Everton
In a pure snapshot of one week you want to be all over fixtures A and B. Again in isolation 3 Chelsea and 3 Man City.
In reality to have 6 players there ignores the future fixtures (say 6 weeks), meaning transfers to shift. Also if you say had Hazard, Fabregas and Costa and Chelsea won 2.0 there is a good chance one of those players will no get points. Budget wise difficult too.
In the above scenario i would like-
A. Chelsea vs Stoke- Costa, Fab, Defender
B. Man City vs Leicester- Aguero and or Silva
C. Arsenal vs Everton- Welbeck and or Ramsey/Chambers
Spreads the chance of points and more balanced moving forwardsThis is sheer bollocks, imo. 😀
Did you even read what he wrote 😀 ?
Of course. :-0
You seem to get alot of respect on here Doosra but come cross as quite a rude, ignorant and intolerant person who is incapable of disagreeing in a cordial way. A simple ' i don't agree with this' followed by some reasoning seems fitting but hey, what do i know.Good luck to you though fella
Hey, that was meant as a joke!
Apologies if I have offended you - was meant to be light hearted!Hmmm - no reply to this. Sad.
SAB?
Sorry mate, boss called.
Oh, OK. 🙂
Sorry about that - was not meant to be rude. 🙂
In the meantime, what I mean is this: Coverage never seems to work for me, for the following reasons.
Take your example, Chelsea vs Man City.
At the moment, in Citeh, ONLY Aguero as very good stats - all the rest are meh, including Silva.Aguero is both very expensive and injury prone.
Chelsea: Costa and Ivanovic are stand outs - but they are indecently so, because their stats are outstanding. Hazard is improving, and Fabregas is just middling, although he is providing solid chances. However, the Chelsea midfield seems to be cannibalising each others' points.
So, rather than have "coverage, I prefer to follow the stats, irrespective of fixtures, and look at fixtures only to fine-tune this process. OK?
Apologies once again if you are offended.Im in a bad mood in general today, apologies. Sense of humor bypass!
No worries - I will be more careful, apologies! 🙂
Dont worry, just read the bollocks part and bit. Hour and half and the beach and beers, boss can do one!
Your examples make good sense to me there.
Maybe i look at it wrong, at the moment i have no arsenal, moving Naismith to Pelle over Welbeck. This worries me as i have no Arsenal involvement ( another word for coverage i guess!)Well, no Arsenal IS a worry - not for fixtures, but for how they are playing.
Second only to Chelsea in terms of form.
This is, strangely, a GOOD week to pick up an Arsenal player, particularly Welbeck, as Walcott is due back!
ARS: TOT 243 che -243 HUL 473 sun 256 BUR 421 swa 115Walcott for me later
with this for now
Siggy/Fab/Sterling/Di Maria/4.5
Costa/Rooney/Pelle
Siggy can become Walcott later with a Baines downgrade. Maybe Sterling outKeep Sterling
I agree that it can be good to be more balanced moving forward, for the reason mentioned: Captaincy.
I don't agree that it's a problem to have three offensive players in one matchup if we ignore the above argument. Yes, there is a good chance that your players don't all get points if they are playing for the same team. But there is a good chance of that if they are all playing for different teams too.
I performed some analysis on this, and found that the goals scored follow a poisson distribution overall. That is, the chance of scoring a goal is independent of how many has been scored previously in the match. Thus it doesn't lower your chances if your team mates scores goals you are not involved in.
Not sure I agree with your example in your second paragraph here. Lets say every team averaged 2 goals scored per game and that we are only refering to attacking players.
Triple up
Team A: Maximum points potential is 2 goals and 2 assists divided amongst 3 players
Coverage
Team B: 1 player, maximum points potential 2 goals scored
Team C: 1 player, maximum points potential 2 goals scored
Team D: 1 player, maximum points potential 2 goals scored
Coverage can achieve 6 goals and the Triple up can only get 2 goals and 2 assists. This doesn't even account for bonus points as well where the 3 games offer 9 bonus points whereas the one game with 3 players only offers 3 bonus points. The points ceiling is much higher with coverage.
Each team might average two goals a game, but they won't score exactly two goals each match. Some teams score more goals than others, and some matches are more likely to be high-scoring than others.
The occasions when it is considered advantageous to double or triple up will be those favourable fixtures when the team is expected to score rather more than the average two goals, or when the team is regularly scoring three goals every time. Team A in your example will be expected to score more than two goals in their match, and their two or three star players may well get three of four goals and assists between them. Meanwhile, the probably inferior players in the less favourable fixtures for Teams B, C and D may only get a goal and a couple of assists between them, if that. Tripling up is far superior to covering three different teams in this case.
Actually, shouldn't one of the three teams in your coverage example be Team A? This would improve your chances, but is still likely to be inferior to doubling or tripling up if Team A scores 4 or more goals.I agree that at times doubling up can be a good thing. In principal I wouldn't dare triple up because the goal average would probably need to be at least 3 goals per game for it to be worthwhile.
Nevertheless in a vacuum where all the variables are equal 'coverage' is not a myth.OK, tripling doesn't often work for very long in attack, but can be effective in defence - remember Tozey's method of choosing a goalkeeper and two defenders from each of two teams that have perfect home and away rotation, and both of which have cheap players and don't concede too many goals at home?
I think your example is more about what I would call spread (avoidance of doubling up) than about coverage (which is usually taken to mean the inclusion of at least one representative of each of the top teams).
The variables are not equal in practice. If they were, there would be no advantage in giving preference to players from the top teams, and no team would be likely to have more than one player that you would want to select anyway, and in fact there would be no such thing as top teams since all teams would be equal!
If in a particular game-week you expect Teams A, B and C to each score two goals then it would indeed be better to select the best player from Team A, the best one from Team B and the best one from Team C. However, if you expect Team A to score 4 goals and to share the goals and assists between their 3 star players, while Teams B and C only score only 1 goal each, then it would be better to select to select the 3 star players from Team A.
In the longer term, though, choosing players from different teams might provide more flexibility in the longer term, especially when the team might have a postponed match or a difficult fixture.
Tldn
I hope it wasn't too long for Ryan.
Basically, I was disputing his example of Tripling Up v Coverage, because of its assumption that Tripling Up would be used for matches in which Team A was only likely to score a maximum of two goals, and that Teams B, C and D were just as good as Team A.
Firstly I want to address your point about defensive coverage. This is an entirely different beast altogether. In this instance all the defence is rewarded for getting a clean sheet so most people don't have a problem with the term in this context. You can cover a teams defence with any defender. If you double or triple up then you simply increase the risk/reward.
In terms of attack I think we are on the same page really. I agree that its right to double up on an attacking player if they are in a good team with good fixtures (value may come into this too eg Southampton/Swansea). Of course we would be assuming that they are likely to rack up the goals over that time to increase the likelihood of those two players being well involved.
I also like the term 'spread'. Thats a useful term and has some statistical weight unlike 'coverage'. In a fantasy football context I'd consider coverage to be covering a good teams attacking potential. Generally it has to be a player who has a high overall involvement in the teams goals. Costa for example has proven to be such a player, the same can be said for other big fish in small ponds eg Siggy.Thanks, Ryan. I think we are now in agreement! 🙂
Finally someone else who works with Data besides me 😀
great post mate!!-> Humans have a large tendency to see more patterns THAN are actually there.
*Humans have a large tendency to see more patterns THAN there are to be seen.
football moneyball blablabla...The gut never lies 😀
Nice post. I love it when a scientist comes on. 😀
Finally!
Isn't one of the things Nate Silver talks about that we should be constantly re-assessing our predictions - most obviously around Bayesian probabilities?
In point 1 for example, the probability of a striker scoring in their next but one match IS going to be affected by what they do in their next match. A striker who fluffs two chances, gets booed and subbed off at 59 minutes probably sees their confidence drop, their manager's confidence in them drop and the team team-mates' confidence in them drop making them less likely to score in the next game.
Whereas you would imagine Ulloa and Vardy are on top of the world right now.
That is not an argument for knee-jerking and I completely agree with you that every assessment should be made objectively and based on all the factors, not just the most recent ones, but in this case form is a factor which should be brought into the overall equation.Yes, possibly. If form is an important factor, it is a further argument against the concept of "being due".
Yes I completely agree 'being due' as a vague concept is a nonsense. If, however, the underlying stats suggest that a players is doing everything right in terms of position, touches, chances etc and then you review those chances and see that they aren't fluffing their lines but the margins are just very fine or goalkeepers are pulling off implausible saves, or they are being unselfish, then the statistics may point to future returns.
It's a good discussion though.
How come almost nobody has Dier in their team. I am thinking of getting Baines next week or the week after. who should i sacrifice, Dier or Moreno?
moreno will give me extra cash, but he has better fixture and I believe Livepool will really work hard on their defence give they lost 2 in 5 with crappy organization. Dier however has also been conceeding lately and I am doubting his starting spot for long term.
any imputs will be appreciatedLiverpool defence is shot forever - bad choices have already been made. Spurs may well improve.
Thanks
saved up 2FTs AND had £1.6m ITB
My big moves this week?
Coloccini -> Wisdom.livp/MANU/chel/ARS in next couple.
😕"next couple" is a bit of an overstatement.
next 8 then kimozabe
So "couple" now means "4", does it ?' 😆
Foursomes work for me.
Benched for those GWs 😀
Does anyone else get tempted to do their transfers early just so the team looks all nice and set on the page? Probably just me, im odd.
Same here! 😀
😉
Yep, I'm resisting pulling the trigger on my transfers right now - doing them immediately would have no benefit to me, but it just makes me uneasy not having them in already...
Definitely, I'm usually wrapped up for the next GW by Sunday! It's bitten me a few times though.
Oh yeah, all over that.
I did Mata -> ADM, Man Utd have no cup match this week.
Already made 0.2 m from ADM price rise and Mata price drop 😉
Please support my bid to represent the Community!
I'll bring the gap back from the pundits!!
Foster (4.5 BUR)
Ivanovic (7.2 AVL) Bertrand (5.1 QPR) Duff (4.1 wba)
Sterling (8.8 EVE) Fabregas (9.4 AVL) Di Maria (9.8 WHM) Puncheon (5.9 LEI)
Costa (10.9 AVL) Ulloa (5.7 cpl) Aguero (12.1 hul)
http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2014/09/22/scout-notes-gameweek-5-sunday-2/?hc_page=1#hc_comment_8369872
PLEASE VOTE!!!Arv, Doos? I know you both love a bit of electioneering, can I count of your votes?
I do. Sadly, I don't love your team, mate. 🙁
Fair enough Doos, cheers!!
Help me guys! Give me one name I should bench from this lot..
MID: Sterling (EVE), Tadic (QPR), Sigurddson (sun), Di Maria (WHU), Fabregas (AVL)
ATT: Berahino (BUR), Balotelli (EVE), Diego Costa (AVL)Berahino/Balo.
Berahino! Easily.
Berahino. Burnley could keep it tight again, and again, and again...
Thanks guys!
I have Rooney in a draft league. Should I try and trade him for. Falcao or RvP or hold?
Guaranteed starter so hold. I got RVP and Adebayor. 🙁
I got Balo and Ade along with him, I know the feeling!
...and you're complaining! I was left with some real rotters.
picking up from the earlier discussion heres my full team :
ivan moreno clyne (hutton wisdom)
siggy schiney sanchez sterling (zaha)
adebayor costa pelle
was considering
zaha + ade --> ulloa + adm for a hit
ade --> falcao and save a hit
hold this team though id like some utd cover
advice?Good thinkin. I would go for 1
Time to WC... Yes or No?
Gilks Begovic
Clyne Chester Dummett Rafael Chambers
Sterling Fabregas Ramsey Sigurdsson Marney
Adebayor Costa Rooney
Nope. Get Adebayor out for Welbeck/Pelle/Ulloa, get PvA in for Chester and your team looks decent.
Then next week you can sort out GK.
time to get rid of Silva ---> Ozil or Ramsey? thanks
see below 🙂
Keeping looking at David Silva for this week..thoughts ?
He seems to have had a slow start in FPL this year but playing really well. With City's good run coming up he is "due" a few points
Looking at last seasons fixtures he played really well against Hull and managed a goal and an assist in a MOM performance...the fixture obviously suits him
I have no coverage for CitySlow on the uptake this morning Doosra..(getyeryayasout ^)..
The only player I'm really interested in is the second on that table...Although both Kompany and Silva might actually be good picks for a while now...
Don't let GetYourYayasOut see this 😯
hehehe...
Assume you intended to hit the trifecta? 😉
I actually think silva is a decent option with city fixtures on the up though hard to justify when the likes of di Maria and Fabregas are plundering pointsUlloa is the key to that trio..
Who is the best option to replace Krul.
(a) Mannone
(b) Heaton
(c) Begovic
(d) Hart
(e) Forster which means a double Soton defence (Clyne). I'm not too keen on this one.
I'm currently on Mannone over Heaton as I want to get Duff next week.
Cheers.I quite like Mannone and his saves points and some CS now and then. The team just seems to concede lots of chances from outside the box, which is a good thing for a keeper.
Excellent feedback my friend. Thanks.
West Ham fans, what's likely to happen to the team once Carroll is back in the starting XI? Trying to gauge the impact on Downing's position/production it will have, more specifically
Nothing will happen to him..BFS is loving him...
Thanks, am looking at him as a 5th mid atm
So am I..In fact no looking about it...he's in next week.
GW7/8 for me 😀 planning an international week WC at the mo
He's an Allardyce signing so will keep his spot but may be utilised differently should Carroll be put back in the team.
Differently in what way? I ask because of his performance last week at the tip of that midfield diamond, had a wonderful game and was hoping he'd be placed there more often
Tbh I'm struggling to know how AC fits in..Valencia wide and Downing wide ?
Another poor week. Please help me.
De Gea, Gilks
Terry, Pieters, Taylor, Hutton, Wisdom
Mata, Ramsey, Sterling, Sigurdsson, Marney
Costa, Rooney, Adebayor
2 FT. 0 ITB. Who goes? Who stays? Who comes in?
Mata --> Di matia
Mata/Ade to be chopped
Adebayor -> Pelle, Mata -> ADM
Mata -> ADM
Ade --> Welbeck
DDG -> Heaton, Mata -> ADM
Capteeeeeooon>?
1) Fábregas
2) PellePelle if I own him. Even with Costa.
Agreed. 🙂
I'm actually finding the uncertainty in prices is making me do my transfers earlier than I would have done if I'd known changes for sure. Is anyone else finding this?
Kicking myself because I did a -8 to bring in Di Maria and Pelle but downgraded my defence to do so, when I think now I should've done Rooney to Enner Valencia. Should I be kicking myself?
I dont think anybody should be kicking themselves for enner valencia
Defenders Selection, worth reading!
Before season starts, many of us wanted to pick defenders that have better chance earning clean sheets, For instance: Chelsea, Stoke... But after GW5, they gave us only 1 out of 5 games. On the other hand, teams that we had tried to avoid like Villa, Burnley and Sots had 3 clean sheets.
On top of that, we also tried to stick with defenders playing at home. Again, after GW5, clean sheet stat at home vs away is 12:17!!!
So, are you still going to pick defenders with the above criteria? Please discuss.I think over the course of the season the cream will rise to the top.
I hope so. Because I hardly can persuade myself playing the away defenders over the home ones.
reported
I dont think there has been played enough matches to conclude anything much yet
World Cup hangovers are about to ease, promoted teams will gradually lose their winning mentality from the championship, and things will go back to normal very soon imo
Pelle just looks so bad every time I watch him play would feel really wrong if I got him.
He doesn't need to look good, just get the points for the onwers.
Dzeko MKII(just better looking)
Strike when the iron is hot.
9 years, 8 months agoIgnoring price: hazard or fab?