Analysing The Budget Strikers

As a number of explosive, high-priced options begin to deliver high scores, and with no sign of this trend finishing any time soon, Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers are turning to a number of budget options to be able to release the funds to get these players in. If you want the likes of Alexis Sanchez, Sergio Aguero and Diego Costa,  it now seems more and more sensible to use your third striker spot to bring in a cheap option. In this budget bracket there are many options who are all capable of bringing in decent Fantasy returns.

This article focuses on four budget strikers.  In my view, these players are not to be rotated with a fifth midfielder – they are good enough to be played week in, week out. All prices are accurate as of November 17th.

Charlie Austin

Price: 5.8

Team: QPR

Next six: LEI, swa, BUR, eve, WBA

As a Brighton supporter, I’ve admired Charlie Austin’s goal scoring record in the Championship for many years. A player who has regularly scored 20+ goals in this league, I was excited about the prospect of this player in the Premier League.  A poor start to the season for both QPR and Austin meant I lost my interest in the forward, with just one goal scored in his first five games, and QPR falling to the bottom of the table. However, since then, Austin has produced attacking returns in four of the last five, and has scored in games against ‘top’ opposition – including Chelsea and Man City as well as providing an assist in the narrow loss to Liverpool. Now the fixtures have turned in QPR’s favour, and Austin has only been snapped up by 2.7% of managers.

The stats certainly back up Austin’s appeal as a striker worthy of a spot in our teams. If we look at the goal attempts of all the strikers in the league, Austin sits in third place, behind Aguero and Pelle. His goal conversion rate  is also high, above Southampton’s Graziano Pelle and just below Aguero. Austin also has seven big chances to his name and, crucially, six goals already.

For touches in the box, Austin trails two of the three other budget forwards I am analysing – Welbeck and Sakho – and has half the number of touches that Aguero has managed. Despite this slightly disappointing stat, I believe the other stats show how deadly Austin can be in front of goal. QPR look like a team that has worked out how to get the most out of Austin, with a pairing of my favourite ever player, former Brighton legend Bobby Zamora, coinciding with a boost to Austin’s goalscoring record. Zamora, for example, has created an incredible 16 chances for team-mates this year – third best out of all the strikers and only bettered by Fantasy favourites Pelle and Costa (both 18). If Zamora can continue this rate of creating chances, you can bet your bottom dollar that Austin will profit.

Verdict: A quite incredible return of points for Austin against tough opposition indicate that, now the fixture list has turned, the 5.8-priced striker can continue to be amongst the points. The stats are also quite incredible for a player who has already faced Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea – as well as high-flying West Ham and Southampton – in his previous six matches. Investment in Austin looks a sensible move ahead of the busy Christmas fixture period.

Saido Berahino

Price: 6.1

Team: West Brom

Next six: che, ARS, WHM, hul, AVL, qpr

Berahino has had a great start to the season. As an outside observer, I really expected West Brom to struggle this year and the record signing of Brown Ideye meant that no one really considered Berahino as an option this year. However, with spot-kicks in his locker, Berahino has made a mockery of his initial 5.5 price tag and has scored seven goals in the Premier League already. He is duly now owned by 21.1% of FPL managers, making him far less of a differential than Charlie Austin.

Many believe that Berahino is only scoring points because of his penalty dties. Three of Berahino’s seven goals have come from the spot, however the stats show that Berahino is getting chances from open play as well. Berahino is sixth place for goal attempts and boasts an impressive goal conversion rate of 22%, the best of all the budget strikers I am analysing and superior to Aguero’s. Can Berahino keep this conversion rate up? Perhaps not. He has two blanks in a row, and with Chelsea, Arsenal and West Ham to come, questions have begun to arise about Berahino’s consistency. However, a goal or two in any of these games will put him firmly back on track.

Intriguingly, Berahino is third on the list for shots on target, trailing only Costa and Aguero however, is some way down the list for touches inside the penalty area, putting him below Fantasy rejects such as Edin Dzeko, Emmanual Adebayor and even Connor Wickham.

Verdict: West Brom have begun to stutter of late, with a poor result at home to Newcastle following a narrow victory over Leicester and only two points from a possible 12 in the last few games. Tough games are to follow, and while owners will be contented to ride these out and see what happens, I believe there are better options in this price range.

Diafra Sakho

Price: 5.9

Team: West Ham

Next six: eve, NEW, wba, SWA, sun, LEI

West Ham’s new attacking verve and lofty league position have stunned me. The incredible form of both midfielder Stewart Downing and forward Diafra Sakho have contributed massively to this. In my view, West Ham have potentially the most favourable fixture list from now until Christmas and their attacking assets have every opportunity to shine and cement West Ham’s position in the top four. Now owned by 8.4% of FPL managers, Sakho is still very much a differential even with five goals in five games.

Behind that rate of goalscoring, Sakho’s statistics are decent without being awe-inspiring. His number of goal attempts betters Danny Welbeck’s and equal and is only one behind Costa’s. However Austin and Berahino have managed more. His goal conversion rate is high – the same as Berahino’s – but in terms of penalty area touches Sakho is better than the young England forward. Sakho’s number of touches in the box is only bettered by only Aguero, Pelle and, surprisingly, Danny Welbeck.

Headed goals are also one of Sakho’s key weapons. He has made the most headed goal attempts of any Premier League player so far this season and four out of five of his goals have come from headers. Downing is his assister-in-chief, so keep a careful eye on his form and fitness before investing in Sakho.

Verdict: Sakho is an intriguing case. It seems strange to think that by owning Sakho, you are inadvertently taking a punt on Downing, as without him, it seems unlikely that Sakho will continue his incredible start to the season. Personally, I believe Downing will continue his excellent form, and Sakho will be a fantastic option at only 5.9.

Danny Welbeck

Price: 7.3

Team: Arsenal

Next six: MUN, wba, SOT, sto, NEW, liv

Deemed surplus to Man United’s requirements after heavy summer spending, Welbeck went to Arsenal with a point to prove. He has made a decent start to the season, but has only scored twice in the league, despite playing through the middle in his preferred striker position. A hat-trick in the Champions League underlined his potential, but in my view, Welbeck owners are right to have expected more from the front man. He seems to have been overshadowed by his team-mate Alexis Sanchez in the Arsenal line-up, however costing an incredible 3.5 less than the midfielder, is Welbeck still a viable option for our striker spots?

The bread and butter of a striker is goals. In this aspect, Welbeck falls short of the other players mentioned in this analysis. His underlying statistics show that his best chance of points is more likely to be from assists. His goal attempt tally  and goal conversion rate is the lowest among our budget quartet. In fact even Peter Crouch, Ashley Barnes and David Nugent have a better goal conversion rate. In terms of touches in the penalty box, however, he is performing well, suggesting his strength may be in chance creation rather than scoring. He is fourth among strikers in terms of chance creation, but even this potential comes with a caveat as he only has two assists so far.

Verdict: Arsenals faltering form, along with relatively tough fixture list, combined with Welbeck’s underwhelming stats indicate that non-owners should avoid this player and perhaps owners should be looking for an exit route for the striker. I was surprised at the stats on show for the former United man, and with Olivier Giroud back in training, this is one player I recommend avoiding.

Final Thoughts

This week I took the bold step of transferring out Pelle and Raheem Sterling, two players who boast high rankings in many of the statistics tables in the Fantasy Football Scout Members area. In their place I have drafted in Austin and Sanchez. In my mind, both form, fixtures and underlying stats propel Austin and Sakho to the top of the budget striker watch list – although Sakho’s reliance on headed goals from Downing crosses means I lean towards the former as the stand-out budget forward. Berahino for me is a holder – keep if you’ve got him, but look elsewhere for a budget striker. And Welbeck… well the less said the better. I would certainly be looking to offload him this week bar any more injuries to your squad.