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Navigating Festive Rotation In the Chelsea Defence

An oft-quoted reason for Chelsea’s success this season has been the consistency in first-team personnel. But Chelsea’s defence, once so firm, has been going through an uncertain time recently with various players being rested. Manager Jose Mourinho has said he will continue to give players “new periods to breathe so they can face the second part of December,” so I think we can expect more rotation over the month. This article looks at who is safest and who could earn a rest next.

Looking at the recent defensive rotations, I think the next up for a Premier League rest will be Gary Cahill, who is set to be excused from League Cup duties this week and I fancy will earn another rest, in the Premier League, against either Stoke or West Ham. The safest options over the next five game weeks should be John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic, who both earned a Champions League rest at the start of the month. Cesar Azpilicueta, too, has also already earned a Premier League rest in December, in the Gameweek  16 clash against Hull. This indicates that he too could be safe from further rotation, although Mourinho has Felipe Luis to call on to deputise for him.

Here are some of the reasons behind this thinking that Gary Cahill is the least safe Chelsea backline option over Christmas.

Upcoming Fixtures

The fixtures over the next five Gameweeks are kind and interspersed with league and FA Cup duties.

Derby 16 Dec (Capital One Cup)

Stoke 22 Dec

West Ham 26 Dec

Southampton 28 Dec

Tottenham 1 Jan

Watford 4 Jan (FA Cup)

Newcastle 10 Jan

The next group of fixtures starts with the league cup quarter final vs Derby, which should see wholesale changes. Derby are a side in great form, and given the narrow margin of Chelsea’s 2-1 victory over Shrewsbury last time out, Mourinho will not take them lightly. But Mourinho has been playing a virtual ‘B team’ in the League Cup to date, and whilst he played a strong team in last year’s unsuccessful quarter final, I think this year his ‘B team’ is strong enough to do the business. It is safe to say that if any of the regular four defenders turn out for the cup match they will most likely not be rocking up to Stoke as well. However, owners of Azpilicueta may be able to breathe a sigh of relief due to his benching in Gameweek 16.

Recent Teamsheets

Gary Cahill is the only defender to have played every match since the international break last month. whilst the other three have been rested in the last two fixtures. This adds further weight to the argument that Cahill is next to succumb to festive rotation.

Gameweek 16 line up (13 Dec)

Ivanovic, Cahill, Terry, Luis

Rest: Azpilicueta

Champions League line up (10 Dec)

Luis, Cahill, Zouma, Azpilicueta

Rest: Terry and Ivanovic

Gameweek 15 line up (6 Dec)

Ivanovic, Cahill, Terry, Azpilicueta (67)

Rest: none

Gameweek 14 line up (3 Dec)

Ivanovic, Cahill (46), Terry, Azpilicueta

Rest: none

Gameweek 13 line up (29 Nov)

Ivanovic, Cahill, Terry, Azpilicueta

Rest: none

Champions League line up (25 Nov)

Ivanovic, Cahill, Terry, Azpilicueta

Rest: none

Gameweek 12 line up (22 Nov)

Ivanovic, Cahill, Terry, Azpilicueta

Rest: none

Corresponding 2013 fixtures

Looking at the corresponding group of five Premier League fixtures last year, Terry was the only one to be ever-present, adding further weight to the premise that he rather than Cahill is the safest Chelsea centre-back to draft in over Christmas.

Terry (5)

Azpilicueta (4)

Cahill (4)

Ivanovic (3)

Conclusion

Owners of Cahill should be on standby for a benching within the next two Premier League matches and ensure they have a strong bench to cope with his absence. In contrast, Terry’s owners should be able to breathe a sigh of relief, as can Ivanovic and Azpilicueta owners to a slightly lesser extent. Investment in Gary Cahill may be ill-advised at this stage of the season.

In summary, this year, I suspect Terry is the safest option with the remaining three defenders rotating out over the next five Gameweeks.

14 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Cheers for the article. Certainly nervous times for those of us with a Chelsea defender over Christmas.

    1. Davros
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      Thanks for writing it up in something resembling english!

    2. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      Too bad I didn't read before investing in Azpi instead in Terry last week 🙁

  2. jamsiep
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    We have four hard fixtures over Xmas, wouldn't be rushing to buy Chelsea defenders in the first place, but especially with the rotation worries.

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      You could be right there. I think buying City defender would have been better option. I went Azpi and made a mistake obviously.

      And btw are you fantasy alive man?

  3. the Penman
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Surely with Jose's recent comment that he's definitely dropping Cahill for Derby in the Captial One cup, Cahill is therefore the safest one? Followed by Azpi since he got his league rest against Hull? And all the others are at risk of one benching in PL matches otherwise?

    1. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      Perhaps though he could get an extended break into this weekend. Or it is the first of two rests. The key I think is that in recent weeks Cahill has played the most. Certainly puts a question mark over him.

      1. the Penman
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 3 months ago

        Yup, maybe. All the others have been rested now - can't remember when Cahill didn't play last, across league, cup and Europe. That said, Jose said something about some (most?) playing 5 of the next 6, so perhaps a double rest isn't so likely?

    2. Kalix
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      My thoughts exactly.

      A rest is a rest, doesn't matter that it wasn't a PL game.

  4. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    This was the main reason I've only ever gone with Terry - security of starts...

  5. Pav A Nice Day
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Petr Cech anyone?

  6. HVT
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Good article thanks,
    A sad Azpi owner her but I feel a little more secure now after reading this.
    I am tempted to get Cahill as he looks like scoring with so many touches in the box, you've put me off now!

  7. Bastien
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    To me, Ivan seems to be the safest pick over Xmas period. He 's very fit and younger than terry.
    His games were limited last xmas because of injury.

  8. Davros
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    The injury to centre back Zouma in the Capital One quarter final win over Derby might force Mourinho's hand and require Cahill to soldier on for longer than planned. Amazing how quickly things can change!