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Goal conversion analysis: Costa & Rvp
Goal conversion analysis: Costa vs RVP, and RVP vs RVP 😀
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COSTA vs RVP
Goal conversion rate (%) - last 4gw's
Costa: 14.3
RVP: 30.8
Note that Costa is on 28% for the season, and most strikers with 5+ goals are around 16-19% (eg. Aguero, Berahino, Sakho, Rooney, RVP, Austin). This suggests that Costa's early season scoring was above average, but that he might score at a slightly higher rate going forwards than he currently is, and RVP at a lower rate.
Shot accuracy (%) - last 4gw's
Costa: 42.9
RVP: 61.5
Note that Costa's shot conversion for the season is 57%, and RVP's is 51%, again suggesting that Costa is firing below his average, and RVP above-average. I'd say that about 50% is a normal number for a decent striker.
Penalty box touches - last 4gw's
Costa: 32
RVP: 19
Shots / Shots in the box / on target - last 4gw's
Costa: 14 / 11 / 6
RVP: 13 / 10 / 8
Nothing to split them in shots, but Costa has gotten in the box much more often.
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RVP: Last 4 games vs historical performance:
Comparing RVP's current scoring rate to previous seasons suggests that he isn't going to keep up his current lofty scoring rate:
Goal conversion (%)
2014/15 (gw13-16): 30.8 (4 goals)
2014/15 (gw's 1-12): 11.5 (3 goals)
2013/14: 19.4 (12 goals)
2012/13: 18.4 (26 goals)
2011/12: 17.2 (30 goals)
RVP's current goal scoring rate of 30.8% is well above his historical average, even the seasons where he was prolific.
Shot Accuracy (%)
2014/15 (gw13-16): 61.5
2014/15 (gw's 1-12): 46.2
2013/14: 33.9
2012/13: 44.7
2011/12: 43.7
RVP's shot accuracy this season prior to the last 4 gw's seems to be in line with his usual numbers, however his recent performance seems to be way above his average.
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My conclusion from this is two-fold:
1. Although RVP is has undoubtedly scored well recently, his scoring rate is unsustainable. Even when he was scoring 26 and 30 goals his scoring and shooting percentages were never as high as they have been in the last 4 games, and the statistics suggest that the law of averages will kick in and he will score less frequently.
You might say RVP is "in-form", but how does one define that? If Mata doesn't play a brilliant pass to him, he doesn't have a tap-in, and suddenly no one would say he was "in form", since he was largely anonymous in recent games apart from his goals. The eye-test certainly suggests that he has been overly "lucky" with his finishing, and the stats back this up.
2. Costa's numbers were unsustainable early in the season, so his recent dip should be no surprise. However, he is still getting plenty of touches and shots, and his current scoring rate isn't representative of his usual form (or that of the average scoring compared to other strikers).
"Out of form"? Perhaps. But as long as he keeps playing and getting chances he's bound to score. I won't go into it now, but I can recommend looking at the team attacking stats for Chelsea and United respectively, which suggest that Costa is much more likely to keep getting chances. All of which is enough for me to hold onto Costa and not worry about RVP.
😀 😀 As always, thoughts and comments welcomed. Whether you agree or disagree there's always multiple ways to interpret stats! 😀 😀-
This would have been a much, much better top of the page post than mind. 1000000 apologies, sir.
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Haha, i was actually counting posts, but you snuck in before me lol
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Counting posts!
Hmmmm, RCA might have a point below.
What can I buy you... pint?-
When I was going to make my post, I saw that it would have been near the bottom more or less, so waited a few posts is all.
I'll have a pint of lager though, yes please! 😀
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thanks, interesting read
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So Costa over RVP 🙂
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Strongly agree with all of this. Buying RVP is madness.
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Just to add some more stats to the Van Persie funeral pyre:
He has had fewer shots per minute every season since 2010. This year it's below half what he shot in '12 and '13 (his last year at Arsenal and his first at Utd).
His assists per 90 are also lower every year in that period, and they fell off a cliff this year.
His involvement in general has been dire in 2014. His recent uptick doesn't have any solid basis, and United have been incredible luck monsters over the last five weeks.
http://statsbomb.com/2014/10/does-van-persie-still-merit-a-starting-place-for-mufc/-
Indeed. Funny how loads of people were clamouring for RVP to be dropped 2 weeks ago, yet now he is the next jesus, and people are already planning on having him in their Jan WC teams 😀
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Wow that article is great. Wish I had seen that instead of writing up this post, as it says everything that needs to be said.
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Haven't read it, and won't read it 😉
You're a feckin machine! You need to get out and have a drink, join a creative writing group, involve yourself more in your local community.
You remind me a lot of a fella called Unreal.. or Learnu maybe.-
Very true. I get way to involved in this stuff. I just find that the best way to get my thoughts and analysis in order in my head is to write it out and read over it, and then I figure I might as well share it here 🙂
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I agree that Costa is a better option than RVP, unless ManU start creating a lot more chances.
However, I think both are overpriced. I just wish there were more expensive players worth the cash!-
No doubt both are overpriced, but you've got to put your money somewhere!
Last gw I had to replace Aguero and was only looking for a 2-3 gw forward before getting Benteke for the gw19-21 fixtures, and I figured Costa was the best choice. He did score (even if Rooney and Bony also did) so I was kind of right. 🙂
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I agree Costa is better than RVP, my logic is there aren't many more better than RVP, hence me owning both.
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Very good analysis. Was considering selling Costa as soon as possible but this makes me want to hold on, at least until Aguero is back.
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I'd advise holding for the stoke and west ham games, but rotation in gw19-21 is inevitable so I'd get someone more nailed on then instead.
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Of course RVP wont score at a rate of a goal a game until the end of the season,like he has in the last 4, he never has, very few if any have either.
So the question is whether he is anywhere near his 11/12 12/13 form ie 2 goals every 3 games. With his tendency to pick up assists which Costa seems to lack this would make him good value at current price. Unfortunately to me he is not quite the same player.
A case can be made to have him in current form, holding your aguero money and maintaining your squad structure. However, given our Jan WC is ready made to get aguero back I see better ways of distributing funds across your squad. He would be an intriguing captaincy option but looking ahead Man U and Chelsea home fixtures clash so Hazard offers a better option.
Costa looks good for plenty of goals but suffers from the Chelsea effect in that BAPs are spread around and Hazard is a better home captain choice.
I'm currently running with neither and no plans to change.-
Good points. If I didn't have Costa and instead had Bony or Rooney for example I'd be in no rush to get Costa, but I don't understand why people are selling Costa when there aren't any better options atm, especially not RVP.
Bony, Costa, Rooney, Lukaku, and RVP are all about the same as far as I'm concerned, so using a FT or -4 on a swap between any of them seems rather wasteful imo.
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actually i only need rvp to maintain his form for 1 or 2 more games...in fact just the next game which i m (C) him.
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The point was the his "form" is only a mirage.
I suppose he's as good a captaincy option as anyone this GW though, so go for it!
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So, are we dropping Baines ❓
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It depends.
If Mirallas out, he'll not be dropped yet. -
We are waiting for Mirallas to complete his scan.
If fit: sell baines
if injured: keep baines -
Baines is a player you have to keep for an extended period of time to reap benefits. Don't forget that before his injury he got:
12
10
2
2
15
7
7
11
If Mirallas was the cause for his slump, his injury may ignite another Baines run, if serious enough.-
frustrating to own.
Expensive and NBNC
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Need Jimmy Graham & Mark Ingram to score a combined 10.40 points in tonights game to reach the Final of a money league.
With the way the Saints have been playing, I've got a bad feeling about this......
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No idea what your talking about 😀 I know you play NFL stuff... so throw dat ball inna enzonne .. etc. 😉
Unless Graham and Ingram are running backs.
In that case ... run dat ball inna enzonne 😀 -
No way man that's easy! Ingram will get at least 70 yes rushing and another 17 with 2 catches. Graham will get at least 5-50. You're golden
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Ingram's got 10yds already.......
🙂
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*smooch*
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Thinking of doing Siggy + Baines -> Yaya + Zaba (-4)
Need to do it rightaway, have exact cash.
Couple of things stopping me :
1. Will Zaba start this weekend ?
2. Will Caulker be back this weekend ?
Any opinion on this would be much appreciated!-
it's crazy Tadic didn't even drop for only managed 1 assist since that 8-0 haul.. @.@
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sorry post fail..imo yes for 1 not sure about 2..and i would not get yaya for siggy
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Cheers !
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Who to (C)?
Fab,Eriksen,Sanchez,Siggy
Rvp,Kane,Welbeck-
I have Sanchez(c)
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I'm going to lose sale value on Baines if he drops before the next week? Cut him lose for Zab? Frees up 3.4 I could put elsewhere, like upgrading my fifth midfielder or third striker.
Or I can also bring Zab in for my shitty fifth defender and have an insanely good rotating defense until the January wildcard...-
Keep an eye on Fiso and fantasyfootballfix for his drops. I don't think he'll drop today.
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in fact, i know he won't.
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A. Mirallas and siggy > eriksen and bolasie
B. Mirallas and benteke > eriksen and Kane-
keep siggy i think
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Repost.
Asian Cup starts on January 9th.
Will Yun stay for GWs 19 and 20? -
So, what's the deal with Chambers? Is he out of rotation now?
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No, he will play. Kosc out
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He was suspended for this weekend.
Should play CB untill Kos comes back. -
was trying to figure out why RMT is giving him a 1.8 for this weekend...
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Probably because Liverpool are expected to score a goal or two and Chambers is expected to pick up a card as he usually does.
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What to do with this lot:
Foster | Krul
Baines | Berty | Chambers | Dummet | Duff
Chadli | Haz | Sánchez | Siggy | King
Bony | Costa | Kane
1 FT, 3.1 ITB
a. Chadli ➡ Downing
b. Chadli ➡ Eriksen
c. Chadli, Berty ➡ Yaya, 4.0 DEF
d. Chadli, Baines ➡ Yaya, 5.9 DEF (probly Demi)
e. other?-
I like D
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Would D leave you no money in the bank? Too risky IMO, you might not want to be stuck with Kane if he loses his place or form, not many downgrades from there!
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Yes, I was also thinking in someone cheaper like SUN or SWA defender
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b
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Your defence is a mess to be honest, I sort of feel like Baines is the least of your concerns. The other 4 should be on your radar to go. I'd give Berty these 2 games then get rid. Dummet has good fixture too, so I'd prob just change Chadli for now. Poss for Downing and then do a big upgrade or two next week?
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Cheers!
Time to rethink
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Should i b worried about no Utd cover and would you play Chambers ahead of Wisdom or Bertand?
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me
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Prince fan?
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Chelsea fan, obviously.
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Willl Kolarov start? Need to replace Coleman, feeling punty 😛
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50/50 or less. No way you can get him. Can you afford Demi?
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Can afford anyone 😉
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Probably
I will avoid
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A) Berahino > Austin for free
or
B) Berahino > Giroud &
Baines > Demichelis for -4?-
A keep Baines imo your patience will be rewarded
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night guys, love you all
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cs8pqmXoKpo -
Outlook for Risers/Fallers - from FFF
Sure risers: Hazard
Probably won't but maybe: costa, sanchez, kane, rooney
Sure fallers: Lallana, baird, rodwell, vardy
Maybe fallers: mutch, chadli, lamela, distin, gouffran-
Thanks Rickardinho!
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2 of those sure fallers didn't fall last night.
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Give this man a hulk !
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All good news.
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Sometimes this game is annoying. It seems I made a good decision selling Baines 2 weeks ago. Unfortunately, I bought azpi for him, who has done even worse in the same time!
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48k people getting Clichy in, surely he'll be rested in one of the next two?
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Agree.
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Shhhhhh 😉
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Yeah, I wouldn't touch City's left back spot right now.
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Hi all,
Guzan, Gilks
Baines, Cahill, Wisdom, Clyne, Taylor
Hazard, Sanchez, Siggy, Downing, Marney
Costa, Giroud, Austin
1ft, 3.2m in account.
Should I go,
A. Guzan- Hart
B. Baines-Demichelis + Siggy- Yaya (-4)
C. Baines- Demi/ Zaba
D. Save -
Ok, my dilemma for the week, play Yun (WBA) or Bentaleb (BUR)?
They are both useless.-
Yun imo
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Thanks.
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What to do here?
Guzan/Mccarthy
Baines/Terry/Hutton/Dummet/Moore
Sanchez/Hazard/Siggy/Eriksen/Boyd
Costa/Lukaku/Kane
1FT, 3.3 ib
A) Save FT
B) Siggy - Nasri
C) Baines, Lukaku - Demi/Zaba, RVP(C) -4
D) or else -
it's crazy Tadic didn't even drop for only managed 1 assist since that 8-0 haul.. @.@
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Anyone think Chelsea will struggle at Stoke? Costa in particular?
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they've struggled against most teams of late, and i don't think they'll have it all their own way. would fancy them to win by the odd goal. wouldn't want costa in my team if that's what you're asking!
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He'll pick up another yellow card to be sure. Only question is which one of the Stoke defenders will kick him to provoke the card.
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agree, he cant seem to control himself
even agst Hull which they were leading, but Costa sill picked up one YC?
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it could be the kind of rough tumble game he will relish...or get sent off
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Bench Decision, pick one please.
Sanchez - Y.Toure - Hazard - Eriksen - Downing
Costa - Bony - Kane
A: Downing (LEI) ... he's a bit consistency to bring in at least an assist though
B: Hazard / Costa (stk) ... Haz rarely deliver on away games. Costa always booked away and risked a red if Stoke trying.
C: Bony (hul) ... Swansea are not the same team on away. Bony is quite in form though.
D: Kane (BUR) ... The fixture looks best for him to shine.
I don't think Sanchez, Eriksen, and Y.Toure are choices to bench.-
Tough one....I would bench Bony. Swansea don't score enough.
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Not sure how you can bench Bony anywhere at this point.
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Yep. He's a prime candidate at the moment.
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christ that's not easy.. first instinct is bony, but that's madness with his form and ownership. kane is safest route given price and ownership % but for me he's a great pick this week :-/
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Thanks. Kane is surely lowest risk to bench.
I might miss his first double-digit though.
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chadli-->> nasri?
otherwise, of the choices i fancy B -
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🙂
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City aren't in the League Cup mate. I'd get Austin.
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Good stuff. Some comments:
- City don't have a midweek fixture.
- No City or Chelsea def is hurting you big time.
What's not to like about Austin? Fixtures, form, stats, price, and on pens. Most importantly he is nailed-on during a period of high rotation.
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Tough fixtures next week..
I'll say that for nothing..especially with no Man City assets..
Guzan,
Baines, Cahill, Clyne,
Hazard, Sanchez, Siggy, Downing,
Costa, Giroud, Austin
Gilks, Wisdom, Taylor, Marney,
1ft, 3.2m in account. -
Hazard alone in the rise.
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Rise : Hazard
Fall : Vorm, Lawrence -
Baines/Siggy (couldn't do any wrong before)
to
Demichelis/Yaya( for -4)
Yay or Nay?-
Nay...Yaya is on 4YC and Dem could be on a rotation
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Demi is safest City def option apart from Hart and Yaya could be well worth the risk,
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Not so sure of that mate. City didn't spend the little money they were allowed to on mangala just to leave him on the bench imo. I think now that he has played a few he is first choice with kompany. I'm sure he'll get rests but demichelis will only be cover now I reckon.
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I thought Kompany was injured till NY. That is why I believed Demi was nailed for now.
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Yeah for now both mangala and demi nailed but I seldom look that short term with transfers. Sorry I didn't get where you were coming from.
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