With a half of the season gone, it looks as if the 3-4-3 formation has prevailed this season. Glancing through the current Fantasy Premier League (FPL) leaders’ teams this formation is proving the most popular. It makes sense; forwards score goals and goals get the most points. But while this logic feels right, I thought I’d take a deeper look at the statistics to see how forwards really compare when up against their team mates in midfield.
Comparing Forwards and Midfielders
Lets start with a direct comparison: The top three forwards vs the top three midfielders over 20 games.
- Top three midfielders – 358 points
- Top three forwards – 301 points
- 57-point difference.
Ok, so a 57 point gap. Could be a fluke. Top 10 maybe?
- Top 10 midfielders – 1,018 points
- Top 10 forwards – 871 points
- 147-point difference
- Top ten midfielders averaged 101.8 points over 20 games
- Top ten forwards averaged 87.1 points over 20 games.
As you can see, the top 10 midfielders show a 147-point increase in output compared to the top 10 forwards. Let’s take this one more step. We will give each team two forwards as an average. Obviously not all teams play with two, but between subs and a range of 1-3 on a given field, two sounds good. So, the top 40 forwards vs the top 40 midfielders in 20 games:
- Top 40 midfielders – 2945 points
- Top 40 forwards – 2394 points
- 551-point difference
- Top 40 midfielders averaged 73.6 points over 20 games
- Top 40 forwards averaged 60 over 20 games.
As you can see, the top 40 midfielders averaged 73.6 over the first half of the season while the top 40 forwards averaged 60 points in the first half. That means the average top 40 midfielder is outscoring the average top 40 forward by 13 points so far.
Analysis
So clearly midfielders overall are scoring more points but why are we afraid to field five of them? The easy answer is price, rotation and number. You cannot necessarily afford the best five midfielders all at once. We have a defence to bear in mind as well. Nor will you always have players that align with the averages. If I own Harry Kane and George Boyd due to pricing restraints, I am going to play Kane over Boyd. Lastly, I don’t need a lot of forwards, I need three. While midfielders might score more points this season, I only need the best three forwards who could technically wind up even or better then the top midfielders. The other 37 can do whatever they want. Though the biggest reason might be simply leaving points on the bench. Nothing eats at our soul like a forward scoring in a benched position, such as Kane’s 18-point haul in Gameweek 20 at Chelsea.
However, this season has seen lower-priced midfield options flourish, coupled with lots of cheap, high-performing strikers. Essentially price is not an issue. With options available at all kinds of prices, there is less need for a player like Boyd as a sub. With players like Kane and Charlie Austin up front with Sergio Aguero and a budget backline, can currently field the following:
Alexis Sanchez, Eden Hazard, Sigurdsson, Nacir Chadli, Angle Di Maria
Harry Kane, Charlie Austin, Sergio Aguero
(This being the most expensive end, there are a lot of options available for cheaper. The aim here is simply to show you can have some of the best and most expensive if you want it.)
All of these midfielders can score while getting plenty of assists. The idea here is to maximize bonus points. Out of the top 12 bonus point earners this season, seven are midfielders. If their dominant performances continue, they could very easily pick up some huge differential points.
If you manage your team properly, the 3-5-2 option could really make the difference in the second half of the season. Don’t just assume you need a substitute midfielder; forwards might be the ones who need a break. What do you think?
9 years, 3 months agoGreat analysis. I currently have no idea which formation to go for in my wildcard, but this certainly puts forward a compelling argument for 3-5-2. Fab v Costa is key to this I think as they often both get points from the same goals - Fab the assister with bonus and Costa the scorer.