Manchester United Review

There are expectations of big changes at Old Trafford this summer, Radamel Falcao is leaving and other players such as Robin Van Persie,  Angel Di Maria and David De Gea have less than certain futures. There will also doubtless be big transfers in and the addition of Memphis Depay is already confirmed.

Nevertheless this article will attempt to make an “as it stands” appraisal which can serve as a baseline from which to assess future changes.

2014/15 Overview

United finished the season with one win, two draws and three defeats in the last six games, actually worse than their “poor” start (two wins, two draws, two defeats). After hitting fourth place in Gameweek 12 they remained in third or fourth spot for the rest of the season, as boss Lous Van Gaal looked to stabilise the club after their relatively poor seventh placed finish in 2013/14.

But did we really see an improvement in the style of play?

What is undeniable is that in the second  half of the season, United became a more settled team with players like Juan Mata, Marouane Fellaini, Ander Herrera and Ashley Young establishing themselves in the starting lineup. Defensively United weren’t too bad – 37 goals conceded (similar to Many City and Arsenal) with 12 clean sheets distributed evenly – six in the first half of the season and six in the 2nd half.

In attack, United clearly fell short; Van Persie  was poor (10 goals) and Falcao misfired while Wayne Rooney spent long periods playing in midfield. United scored 62 Premier League goals, quite a way behind City, Chelsea and Arsenal. So that’s where they seem to be now: stable but short of a title challenge pending what happens in the summer. Fortunately for United fans the addition of Depay could really help in terms of goals, but more of that later.

UNITED PLAYERS – DEFENCE

De Gea was the star performer here and his 19 save points and three BPs compare well with other premium goalkeepers like Man City’s Joe Hart and Chelsea’s Thibaut Courtois. As a safe starter he should remain a good goalkeeper  pick next season for those who don’t mind spending their budget that way and as long as he stays at Old Trafford.

Apart from that, the United defence offered slim pickings, Chris Smalling being the best option with 91 Fantasy Premier League (FPL)  points. However,  there were a long series of defender injuries at United and Smalling’s 4.5 Points Per Game (PPG) when playing 60 minutes or more, suggest he could be a decent option if he can hold down a place in a settled defence next season. An interesting option could also be Antonio Valencia; should  he be re-classified as a defender. If United’s clean sheet points were added to his FPL  score he’d have a very healthy 124 points, comparable to what was achieved by players like Everton’s Seamus Coleman, Joleon Lescott of West Brom and Arsenal centreback Laurent Koscielny.

In addition, Van Gaal has spoken about the need to add a midfield “enforcer” nd that could also aid the United defence if it happens. The likes of Smalling, Valencia and even Luke Shaw could therefore turn out to be better options than they look at first sight if they can nail regular starting positions.

UNITED PLAYERS – MIDFIELD

This group of players is harder to assess. With Chelsea and Arsenal we can have a good idea about what formation they will play next season, with City it’s either 4-2-3-1 or 4-2-2-2. But with United it’s really difficult to know as Van Gaal has changed it around so much this season. This article assumes that it will be some variation of 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 although 3-4-3 0r 3-5-2 could also be possible.

Let’s take less favoured FPL options first, Herrera, Young and Fellaini.  Fellaini had the best average for shots in the box per game of all United midfielders in 2014/15 and also the best shooting accuracy. If he gets to continue in what has virtually been a support striker role he could be great value at around 7.0 but whether he will get to do so in a revamped United is open to question.

Young and Herrera seem to have little to separate them.  Both have better creativity numbers than Fellaini; Young appears to be marginally the more creative and Herrera to carry marginally the more goal threat. Herrera could improve to be a good FPL option next season but at a likely price of 7.5 again many managers would want to see the evidence first.  Young’s place could be endangered by the arrival of Depay.

Carrick is obviously a key player for United pending transfers in but plays in the poorly rewarded defensive midfield role role; Adnan Januzaj clearly has potential but looks unlikely to start regularly and could well be loaned out.

THE BIG THREE – DEPAY, MATA, DI MARIA

Memphis Depay is a 21-year-old right winger/forward with explosive pace and he will probably be classified as a midfielder as Sanchez was this season. “He has pace, which has always been a feature of great United teams, and has been badly lacking this season at times.” [Paul Scholes]

Depay looks an exciting FPL option if he’s starting in a 4-3-3. He scored 25 goals in 36 Eredivisie and Europa League games this season and also scored the most goals from direct free-kicks in Europe’s top six leagues (seven goals). A free-kick specialist is something United have been short of, as many have observed. Some will say that Eredivisie form is no guarantee, and that’s true. Neither is it to be dismissed – Luis Suarez went to Liverpool from that league and look how well he did. Price for Depay? If he comes in at 8m he could be a very attractive option.  A price tag of 9m plus though will greatly reduce his Gameweek 1 suitors.

Angel Di Maria and Mata are proven players and Mata has an outstanding FPL pedigree going back to his 212 FPL points with Chelsea in season 2012/13. He has very good creativity numbers, has the knack of timing runs into the box to score and has also been (along with De Gea) United’s highest FPL scorer this season. He is also (currently) on penalties. But there are drawbacks.

The first is that he never really nailed a starting position under Van Gaal until the back end of the season, playing right attacking midfield. But that’s Depay’s position. Will Depay start on the bench? Will Mata move to the #10 role (displacing Fellaini maybe)? If United sign a top striker will Rooney play #10 making that position unavailable? I don’t know the answers to these questions but I do know that FPL managers will quite probably not be able to go into the new season trusting that Mata is a nailed-on starter. That makes him hard to select.

The second drawback is the comparison with Di Maria, whose attacking stats dwarf those of Mata – both for creation and shooting – and were even better than during his last season at Real Madrid (when he was generally thought of as a world class player). Ludo’s recent article on Fantasy Football Gold also showed that Di Maria has a PPG of 5.6 (60 minutes+) compared to 4.8 for Mata. If we make allowances for a difficult first season on and off the field and assume a settled Di Maria playing regularly he could really be FPL gold, especially as it’s hard to see him being priced above 9.0.  But will he stay or will he go?

UNITED PLAYERS – STRIKER

Falcao gone, Van Persie in his last year of contract and apparently a fading force. It seems inconceivable that United won’t buy a striker and, unlike Arsene Wenger at Arsenal, Van Gaal  will have no reluctance to spend the cash. Who it will be is unknown – there is talk of Edinson Cavani and personally I think Harry Kane could well end up at United sooner or later. Whoever comes in will merit serious consideration by FPL managers.

As it stands, there is really only Wayne Rooney to assess. Rooney is FPL royalty and has had a number of stellar seasons in the past. The season just gone was a write-off for FPL purposes, he spent so many games playing CM that analysing his performance is almost pointless. But he has continued to score goals when played upfront.

Where will he play next season? Well, assuming a CM/DM is brought in as Van Gaal has prioritised then there’s a good chance Rooney won’t be playing in midfield at least. So probably in the #9 or #10 role, depending on whether United also bring in a top striker. Rooney can do great things from either of those positions and as captain he’s a guaranteed starter. At around 10.5 (maybe 10.0) he will certainly be a popular pick and one I’d have on my short list. He does have a tendency to start seasons slowly though so maybe he’s one to wait a bit before bringing in, maybe when Costa gets his first injury? Also he is not first choice penalty taker if Van Persie is off the pitch, as he was in 13/14. Under the Van Gaal regime if you miss you “go to the back of the queue” that currently has Mata and Van Persie ahead of Rooney.

The Season Ahead

United should improve next season with the additions they are likely to make in the summer and their new manager being more bedded in.  A front three of ADM-Rooney-Depay or those trio playing behind someone like Cavani or Kane would really offer prospects of more goals. The addition of a midfield enforcer like Kevin Strootman (if fully recovered) could help the defence and the balance. They may also bring in a top centre back.

Personally I think they may turn out to be Chelsea’s most serious challengers for the Premier League title in 2015/16 and that players like De Gea, Valencia, Smalling, Depay, Di Maria and Rooney will be very significant FPL options.