The Numbers Game – 2014/15 Review – Pardew’s Palace

Everton and West Ham "Janus" Appraisal

Here's the next draft article, as usual all comments (especially from those that know the clubs well) will be welcome and will be taken into account when revising. And as before, please skip over if you don't want to read a long post.

EVERTON AND WEST HAM

Next we turn to two clubs that will be very interesting for fantasy football purposes next season - Everton and West Ham. Both reached 47 PL points but finished in very different ways - Everton with 6 wins in their last 10 games after finally exiting the Europa League (EL), West Ham with 2 wins in their last 10 games after it became apparent that Sam Allardyce was, in effect, a "dead man walking" as the Irons' manager.

The Europa League is an interesting element in reviewing both teams. Participation in the EL has been demonstrated to damage the PL performance of many teams (see previous articles) and it certainly seemed to affect Everton last season. They went from a team that had finished the 2013/14 season in 5th place with 72 points to one that struggled for much of the 2014/15 season and only reached 11th place by virtue of their strong late run. Goals for and against also suffered as will be covered later on. But in 2015/16 they are free of the EL effect - will they rebound to something nearer their 2013/14 form?

West Ham, on the other hand, have EL to contend with in the coming season, although as they have to pre-qualify they will actually be up and running before other teams and that can be an advantage at the start of the PL season as Guy Demel's recent article discusses. They also have a new manager, Slaven Bilic, a one time Hammers favourite during his playing days. So there are a number of variables involved in assessing what to expect from West Ham in the coming season.

Bilic was very successful as Croatia manager from 2006-2012, achieving a 65% win ratio and qualifying them for Euro 2008 and 2012. After a less successful year at Lokomotiv Moscow, he also did fairly well at Besiktas (2013-15, 53% win ratio). Man management is often cited as one of his key strengths but tactically it is hard to be sure what to expect - he often utilised a 4-4-2 with Croatia but favoured 4-2-3-1 with Besiktas. An emphasis on good wing play seems to be a consistent feature in how he approaches building teams however.

THE DEFENCE

Everton's poor season (50 goals conceded compared to 39 in 2013/14) was reflected in lower FPL returns for most of their main defensive assets. We can therefore probably expect lower starting valuations in the main next season - possibly Leighton Baines 6.5m, Seamus Coleman 6.0m, Phil Jagielka 6.0m, John Stones 5.0m. Baines may not offer the returns of old now he has surrendered penalty duties but still has excellent creative stats (assist potential). Coleman is also capable of offering value at that kind of price if Everton get nearer to their 2013/14 form and he can continue to produce the open play attacking threat that he has in the past.

The value pick of the Everton defenders is likely to be Stones, however. His price should be realistic after an injury disrupted season whilst Everton's late season defensive improvement seemed to coincide with his return to the team. However an alternative could be Tim Howard in goal - Roberto Martinez has expressed an intention to stick with Howard and his deputy Joel Robles and it wouldn't be surprising to see them make a 9.5 combo (5.0m and 4.5m) after a lower scoring season last time.

For West Ham it is tricky to predict what effect Bilic will have on their defensive shape, though as a good centre back himself in his playing days one could imagine his coaching having a beneficial effect on players like James Tomkins, James Collins and Winston Reid. However, at this stage the three most likely looking West Ham defenders would seem to be GK Adrian Castillo, CB Tomkins and LB Aaron Cresswell.

Thanks in part to 3 penalty saves, Adrian had a very good season with 142 FPL points despite West Ham's in and out form. He'd seem to be due a price rise, however, and it would be surprising to see him valued below 5.5m. Cresswell had good attacking stats (though not at the level of Baines or Coleman) and a share of freekicks. But it's also questionable how good value he'll be at a predicted 5.5m. Possibly the cute West Ham defensive pick could be Tomkins - he missed a large chunk of last season through a shoulder dislocation that required surgery but looked a big threat at set pieces and at a probable 5.0m (possibly even 4.5m) he could be one for the shortlist if nailing a spot in Bilic's lineup.

THE MIDFIELD

The West Ham midfield looks short of fantasy options right now and will likely be added to in the summer. Pedro Obiang (a defensive minded centre midfielder from Sampdoria) has already signed and reports suggest that Alex Song's loan may be made permanent. Given Bilic's preference for speedy and tricky wingers it would not be surprising to see at least one of those arrive as well.

At this stage, the obvious midfielder of interest for fantasy managers will be Stewart Downing, West Ham's top FPL scorer with 160 points. He had excellent creative stats and did his best work by far in the first half of the season when mainly played in the #10 role - 116 of his FPL points came before mid-January and he only added 44 more from Jan 31st onwards when mostly playing wider. A player of proven FPL pedigree, much will depend on how Bilic decides to use him next season - if given the #10 role in a 4-2-3-1 he could be a worthwhile option at a likely 7.0 or so, if used as a winger perhaps less so.

For Everton there would appear to be more options, though none of them convincing. Kevin Mirallas had by far the best stats (especially for shooting) but was used sparingly and may not remain at the club. Ross Barkley disappointed after his break out season in 2013/14, though a price fall to around 6.0 could gain him some support. Tom Cleverley is a talented player that did well towards the end of his loan spell at Villa but it remains to be seen how Martinez will use him. Added to these uncertainties is Martinez' disposition to rotate his midfield selection although there may be less need for that next season with no EL to contend with.

STRIKERS

Romelu Lukaku was an enigma for FPL managers. He actually scored more goals (20) than he did in 2013/14 (16) but less of them in the PL (10 compared to 15 the previous season). His PL creation and shooting stats were significantly behind similarly priced strikers such as Olivier Giroud but in the EL his stats were significantly better than Giroud's level. Weaker opposition, maybe, but teams like Wolfsburg, Lille and Dinamo Kiev are no slouches. He talks about wanting a move to a "bigger club" (or his agent does) and then says that time is on his side in his career and he's happy at Everton.

There is little doubt that Lukaku has the tools - his seasons on loan at WBA and Everton (2013/14) demonstrated that. He's also a striker that appears to score goals in bunches. It's quite conceivable that his valuation could fall next season (8.0m perhaps) and with him it's probably a matter of catching him at the right time.

For West Ham, there are three contenders to look at as it stands - Diafra Sakho, Enner Valencia and Andy Carroll. Sakho leads amongst these three on all the significant stats and produced a creditable return of 98 FPL points considering he spent around half the season absent through injury. Unlikely to be priced much above 6.0m, he could be a very live "3rd striker" option if fit and firing next season.

Andy Carroll has so bad an injury record that he's hard to consider seriously as a fantasy option. But Enner Valencia could be wise to make a note of. Big Sam played him wide much of the time, not in the central striker role Valencia considers as his primary position and in which he has scored 11 goals in 19 games for Ecuador. Given a run by Bilic upfront, he could well be a surprise performer next season and offer great value at a probable price around 6.0m.