Spot the Differential – Gameweek 2

Our usual look at a trio of low-ownership Fantasy assets arrives a little earlier than normal, due to this evening’s 6.45 pm deadline. We’re backing a couple of midfielders from Spurs and Sunderland, whilst Villa’s weekend match-winner comes into consideration for their home encounter with United.

Nacer Chadli

Despite tallying an impressive 11 goals and six assists last term, Nacer Chadli (7.0) is currently owned by just 7% of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers, with most preferring Liverpool duo Jordan Henderson (22%) and James Milner (10%) in that price bracket. Given Spurs’ favourable schedule beyond their season-opener at Old Trafford (STO, lei, EVE, sun, CRY), it’s perhaps surprising that the Belgian winger hasn’t attracted more substantial investment, with many looking to the likes of Dimitri Payet and Andre Ayew as alternatives.

Poring over his underlying statistics, Chadli’s goal conversion rate (20.4%) in the 2014/15 campaign far surpassed team-mate Christian Eriksen’s (10.3%) and any other Spurs midfielder. Furthermore, his goal frequency (one every 228.5 minutes) ranked fourth among the league’s full roster of midfielders, with Alexis Sanchez (192.4), Sadio Mane (204.3) and Kevin Mirallas (213.7) claiming the top three spots.

Chadli ended the previous campaign in a strong fashion, netting three goals in six starts at a time when Eriksen struggled for returns. Considering that weekend opponents Stoke carded just four clean sheets away from home last season and lack the commanding presence of Ryan Shawcross in central defence, the former FC Twente wide man could well kick start a similar run at the start of this campaign.

Jeremain Lens

In light of the news that Adam Johnson will be sidelined for two months with a shoulder injury, even greater emphasis has been placed on Jeremain Lens to provide a spark from the wings. The Netherlands international certainly got his Black Cats career off to a promising start, serving up the cross for Steven Fletcher’s strike at Leicester.

Lens chalked up five goals and ten assists across 18 starts for Dynamo Kiev last term, underlining his knack for accruing attacking returns – indeed, he has produced double figures for assists in four of his last five seasons. There are signs of his influence already beginning to emerge on Wearside, given that he ranked joint-fourth for penalty box touches (four) among all midfielders last Gameweek and posted more successful passes in the final third than any team-mate.

Priced at 6.5, Lens could profit from Sunderland’s excellent run of fixtures (NOR, SWA, avl, TOT, bou), with the home tie against Spurs representing the only top-six side on their agenda. In the short term, the fact that the Canaries placed second for big chances conceded (three) last Gameweek enhances our faith in Lens delivering attacking returns as Dick Advocaat’s side look to recover from last week’s mauling at the King Power.

Rudy Gestede

Debutant Rudy Gestede instantly endeared himself to the Aston Villa faithful, entering the fray as a second-half substitute to nod home a winner against Bournemouth. Such exploits rarely go unrewarded and manager Tim Sherwood looks inclined to agree, having alluded to the prospect of Gestede earning a start when Manchester United pay a visit on Friday.

From a statistical standpoint, the former Blackburn Rovers frontman proved far more impactful than lone striker Gabriel Agbonlahor – who lasted the distance at the Vitality Stadium. Gestede racked up more passes (16) than Agbonlahor (14) – despite clocking 59 fewer minutes – while he also mustered as many shots on goal (two) as the fleet-footed marksman.

Although Man United opened the campaign with a home shut-out against Spurs on Saturday, they registered just five clean sheets away from Old Trafford last term. It’s worth noting that since the start of 2013/14, Gestede’s total of 20 headed goals is five more than anyone else in the England’s top four divisions – given that he’s likely to be up against Daley Blind, it’s certain that Sherwood will be tasking his wide men to get plenty of crosses into the box.

Furthermore, the Villains have been bested just once in their previous quintet of home encounters under Sherwood, offering incentive to invest ahead of an enticing batch of fixtures (cry, SUN, lei, WBA).