Scout Scribbles – International Round Up

Sagna/Shaw/Bellerin

Cedric or one of the Swansea lads

Naughton/Bellerin/Shaw

Kolarov + 0.1m

I concur

Looks good to me.

It's a fairly useless chip so why not.

Personally im keeping mine til the end for a small boost at the end.

tks to all

I'm trying to get rid of Mertz myself, I think the only nailed and good option for Arsenal DEF is Kosc.
And with 1.1 in bank, I would have opted for Silva instead of Sterling!

D

B D

B and D

So hard to say I think Everton will be great once their fixtures turn so Maybe them and WBA

A and D

Cheers all! 🙂

Seems many are going for Everton!
I haven't seen them as solid as such though.

I would say B and C.

B & C

B&C

hazard -> Sanchez/Silva/Sterling

Kane > Gomis would be an improvement and save the other.

Just as an addendum...

Before the season began I posted a long comment about the "FFS Template". In it I identified around 40 players that were not featuring much in RMTs and tried to make the case that the "wildebeest herd" effect was driving managers towards very common teams and away from other good options.

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2015/08/04/moving-target-rickie-lambert-2/?hc_page=5#hc_comment_10713338

Yesterday I looked back on the post and realised that I had included 2 of the top 6 GKs (Krul, Myhill), 3 of the top 6 midfielders (Ayew, Redmond, Albrighton) and 4 of the top 6 strikers (Gomis, Vardy, Diouf, Lukaku) over the first 4 weeks amongst my 40. There were some poor ones too, of course, but I was only trying to demonstrate that there were very good picks being ignored and that the "narrow pool" people were complaining about was self-made rather than actual.

But be that as it may (and maybe it's a lesson for me because I didn't start with a single one of the above players), that isn't why I think RMTs should be removed to a safe place. It is the knock-on effect for experienced managers that concerns me as I have described above.

No, absolutely not. Not even for you, Ruth. 😉

Nah, they're part of the site and you can just ignore them if you wish.

Should we have a character limit on posts? 😯

Didn't read it all but no they should not be. Don't put your team up if you don't want it copied and don't follow the heard for the sake of it

I refused to wildcard and now my team value is 99.3m

I wanted to post something like this after GW 2's WC stampede but decided against it (as I did not have the balls)

Might as well ban this website then

Good post and I do agree. But moving it to another place won't work, people won't go to that section to reply to RMTs, so people will be content posting theirs there but nobody will get replies.

It's one of FFS's identity - you can't just barge in and change everything you don't like.

If we stop RMTs, that's a hell of a lot of work for the moderators to stay on top of.

If we don't create the template some other site will.

If we stop RMTs lots of casuals will up and leave losing the site traffic and ad revenue.

If we have a designated article for RMTs the template still generates there.

If we stop RMTs we get 15x A or B questions from some determined users.

If there is a sub-optimal template and manipulatable market forces there are inefficiencies to be taken advantage of.

RMTs are the lifeblood of the site with people coming on here to offer advice, give advice and for many were their first introduction to the site. At times of high volume (eg pre season we tend to run separate articles and threads for them, but most of the time they are sporadic and offer a good insight into current thinking and an opportunity offer advice.

Also I think you are over thinking the power of the FFS "herd", versus the wider FPL "herd", which is currently over 3million. Your example of Walcott if anything disproves your theory. He was mentioned by many regulars here, but over the whole game had a lower ownership. The decision by his owners to ditch him has nothing to do with following a herd but more to do with it being obvious he would hardly play. That's just common sense.

Currently popular players are failing. But that won't always be the case and there are plenty of hidden gems to be found in RMTs, across the site's articles plus general comments.

Just the nature os the FPL game...

Managers need to do there own thing and ingore the herd mentality on here you are guilty of it just as much as anyone i can see.

I was called mad for going against the grain and captaining Pelle why did you sell him his price did not even drop you are in the middle of the stampeding herd

Banning them would make it difficult for the MOD's to delete each post; with pages flying full of RMT's not every post will be deleted so it would be difficult to keep control of it.

As a community why don't we just simply ignore RMT's? When people realise that RMT's are being ignored won't they just stop posting it and carry on discussing the beautiful game?

To make it more simpler I think it would be much more better to have a RMT section on the website so it's not spammed into one whole article.

IMO they shouldn't be banned but there should be a place for them to be posted, as while I find it frustrating/can't understand why so many people want to be spoonfed and have their team picked for them it definitely shouldn't be banned.
The reason I want to come on here during pre-season is to discuss the friendlies, potential line-ups,new signings,FFS articles etc and the amount of RMT's that are on here makes it difficult to find these discussions.

honestly I think you need to get laid

I am a member and never or at least very rarely use it you should know your self you have to go against the grain sometimes to get anywhere in this game.

No offence, but are you taking yourself too seriously?

Cat ➡ pigeons 🙂

It'll never happen btw. Maybe a seperate thread for it at best but I suspect for as many that there are who don't like them there is an equal ammount of those that do.
The template forms simply because there will always be a pool of players narrowed down from which to choose. I doubt this site dictates that, it's just common sense for the non casual player.

I think you are giving more weight to the 200K hits than they deserve. I hit this site several times a day, but now completely ignore the RMTs (and just about all the discussion posts). I come for the articles and wouldn't have even noticed this post but for Jonty's name appearing as a reply in recent comments.i believe I'm typical of a significant number of the 200K.

to be fair the FFS pre season template NEVER does any good - so keep the RMTs but with a health warning of 'use these players at your own risk' 😉

I think this site is great,very helpfull
But on the other side,think that this site and others like it,price prediction sites etc are ruining this game 🙁

You're absolutely right.

Good post.

You're making a lot of assumptions there. I don't think the 'herd' mentality is quite as strong as you make it out to be. Most of the 'template' picks are players with the least risk and most reward that most logical people will arrive at independently. Chelsea and Arsenal defence, or Rooney as a lone striker, or an OOP Walcott. They're risks that made sense when you compare them to Mahrez with no history of penalties playing in a bottom half table team, Ayew who is new to PL and has difficult fixtures, or Diouf who we weren't sure was even going to start. Most of the 'herd' have weighed these up themselves independently including yourself, I'm assuming, when you admit you didn't start with a single one of the low ownership players you highlighted.

So are you a member of the 'herd' who just came here and listened to everyone else with no thinking for yourself? Of course not, and the sensible (and dare I say smart) idea was always to wait and see on the likes of Mahrez/Ayew/Diouf to see how Leicester, Swansea, Stoke will do this season. If they do well, the anxiety about their prospects are eased and we can get them in with confidence. Which is exactly what people are doing. It's sensible, smart play from most people on this website; a strategy most people arrived at independently and checked against many other skilled and experienced FPL players to see if they missed anything in their logic.

The skill has always been to identify good players early and to have the conviction to hold on to good players if you think they will deliver. RMTs and templates do not affect this. If you simply don't have conviction in your choices in the face of price changes then you're as much part of the herd as anyone else. I would say count yourself lucky you weren't playing FPL 3 seasons ago when players can rise or fall by £0.2m before the Monday night game had even been played. Trust in your strategy, trust in your choices, make the necessary changes and be thankful price changes have been very slow to allow you time to make decisions.

I think creating a separate RMT thread pre season is sensible because there is a) so little valid information to rely on and b) a huge amount of ppl wanting the teams rated.

The point of a forum is to discuss your ideas about a subject and get other opinions. I found pre-season that every time I suggested someone remove Hazard to fund an improvement elsewhere in their team, I would get shouted down by several of 'the herd'.

Whether or not 'the herd' unknowingly affect the prices of certain popular players, I find this notion unlikely for the reasons stated by Jonty above, and anyways is part of the game. Walcott wasn't a huge option because of mass opinions stated on this website pre season, he was popular because he finished last season very strongly.

The situation now, is that there will be people on here who have valuable information to share, and I personally enjoy looking at others teams and hearing the rationale behind what they are trying to do.

Different people have different opinion, I have neither had Hazard nor Walcott since pre season. So during the pre season RMT, I have never asked anyone to get for example Walcott in. That is because I do not think he has ever been nailed, I always want a safer pick. RMT is not done by just a single person, it is done by our community, not everyone has the same opinion, therefore, there will be different suggestion here. That is totally up to the thread starter which player to pick eventually. Without suggestion from FFS Walcott would have lesser ownership, the price drop would have been faster than what has happened. I do not see any reason why RMT needs to be banned.

Weren't RMT removed to a special place a season or two ago, and it didn't went well because noone was getting any answers?

Large part of this site is RMT's, and i hate when people talk bad about following the heard, when someone says that my team is 100% template i'm very happy with it, because the point of this site is to find best players who are nailed on for their teams, with good form and fixtures. And of course when Mahrez gets a haul in GW1 and we see that he is on penalties, everyone will get him for 5.5, its not heard mentality, its common sense.

I agree and like you say having a separate section for it makes it a lot less visible to the average user and in turn tames the stampede a bit. I think many on here are missing your point and seeing it as black & white i.e. whether it should either be banned or not. It will also keep the discussion pages from flying by which results in users missing most of the valuable content if it's not stickied

We wouldn't be having this conversation if even 50% of the pre-season template started well.

The fact is, the start to the season has been a bit of an outlier compared to previous seasons. The home/away unpredictability, the premium players failing hard, Arsenal and Chelsea failing at both ends of the pitch having been the best attacking teams last season, and clean sheets hard to come by aside from a handful of teams has created a perfect storm.

I think an assumption that might be made here is that the general public (outside FFS) are clueless about FPL. I do agree there is a herd mentality in a way with regards to some of the infrequent FFS visitors (which I would assume is a strong proportion of visitorship). However, the massive press coverage of the EPL does mean alot of attention globally is only focused on a few players.

For example, on sites like Soccernet which has HUGE readership in Asia, Walcott was constantly talked about in articles and Op Eds. That coupled with Arsenal's preseason form meant Walcott was a much talked-about player. It's dangerous to assume that he was an FFS-exclusive bandwagon, as any halfwit who plays the game or follows football knows that Walcott barely played last season....and with an immediate bench role in GW1, he was always going to be sold en masse.

Now back to your point re: RMTs...the sheer scale of RMTs being posted in preseason did perhaps set the foundation for the price rises we see today. However, I do not think we should ban RMTs as they are the bread and butter for the site.

If people knew how football players and matches would end up - particularly the the start of the season - the only stampede would be to the bookies.

If you have any independent brain you do as much research as you can beforehand on putting a side together, stick em in then hope you get partly rewarded for your homework and partly lucky.

End of.

I think the problem is less RMTs themselves than the popular response to them. I try to avoid dogmatic advice that sees every team without X get the same comments. When folks at work ask advice I point out obvious flaws, but the risk here is 10 people getting told the same thing by one person in one minute.

tl;dr

would love to see it personally especially pre season but what u have to remember and a point being missed here is a huge majority of people using this site simply couldnt pick a team off their own bat and that includes alot of mods contributors and hall of famers... the template that is formed from those discussions pre season and beyond are vital to those who play the games a certain way..id say around 75% and 90% of those in the hall of fame plays for a high rank.thats how they measure their dicks around here anywhere in and around the top 5 to 10k which is fantastic and something iv never been anywhere close to achieving but i could never play the game that way.. which is basically starting with a template team generally which turns out to be shite after 2 or 3 gameweeks then those players jump all together with an early wildcard to the next template making sure they are pretty similar in teams and in many cases identical to those who also play that way.. there may be one or 2 punts early on to propel themselves into a strong position and once they achieve that its make the same transfers as those around them and captain the bloke at the top of the poll every week.to maintain rank and insure they dont ever slip to far... its a fairly simple strategy and one i have zero respect for im more for a player who thinks for themselves takes risks and doesnt need their team and decisions made for them week in week out... which is probably why im destined for a rank 100k or more but sure il have fun doing it 🙂 just have to read between the lines the template team is vital to these guys

Any chance of a quick RMT?
😉

Hence the attractiveness of UFPL. Price volatility is taken out of the equation completely which makes it so much more enjoyable as you can take a host of punts with the only downside being no points as opposed to less team value which might supper the latter part of your season.

Whilst I disagree that RMT's should be banned from the site, I do agree that something should be done with the way they are organised during pre-season. It was very tiresome and quite tedious to scroll through pages upon pages of RMT posts in the main threads from users who wanted advice but were not willing to give any input in return. There was little to no discussion about anything FPL related as a result. I'm not saying that every user who had posted an RMT was like that, quite the opposite as there were plenty of respectable users who were kind enough to give their opinions, but it does become a problem.

Regarding a separate thread for RMT discussions, this was tried and I thought it was a good idea at the time but it proved to be too much work. I for one tried to help out with the admin for separate RMT posts and was trying to direct users to the designated thread as much as I could and many other users followed suit and helped out as well. Despite our efforts though, a lot of new users were posting in the main threads because they couldn't get an answer quick enough.

In terms of FFS affecting price volatility, I find that very hard to believe given that there are over 3 million people playing this game and it is extremely unlikely that the amount of users on here even accounts for 10% of the total players in the game. Just because the site received 200k hits one day, which is impressive don't get me wrong, it doesn't mean that it reaches that everyday neither does it show that each hit is a unique user. We don't know what changes the pricing algorithm has had to account for a quicker rate of price drops and you can't prove that the price drops of certain players are directly related to users from FFS.

The forums on this site are a great place to get a second opinion on something and there are many posters on here that provide valuable insights to discussion topics. This is one of the main attractions of the site to new users. Ultimately though, it is down to the individuals to make their own minds up and be decisive.

I have a few thoughts. I've only played two seasons of fpls, this being my second, and I find this site quite helpful, and gladly would pay 2x the cost to maintain my membership. That said,

I do believe, merely on a logistical basis, the rmts are drowning out the really good and useful debate, strategy, and insight that so many here offer. While I do not think rmts should be banned, some sort of spot would help many of us find the signals amonst the noise. I personally really try to avoid doing my own rmt in an effort not to add to the unmanageable number. The increased popularity and volume of the site has made rmts a bit unwieldy.

Let's give Ruth aa break, and some credit, for adding to the strategy discussions and debate. While some may disagree with his direct style, I laud folks who challenge our thinking, the status quo, and stir thoughtful discussion. It is what makes forums such as ffs so helpful.

I am not sure if the herd mentality or groupthink associated with the template teams drives prices to the degree Ruth suggests, but to me, the lesson I take away is that if we do climb into a given template team, there is a discounting of the inherent risk associated with such a team not planning out. By definition, and just based on random performance, some elements of a template team will surely not pan out well, and it behooves the wise manager to differentiate to some degree. I wasmamazed, for example, by the number of folks drafting Theo, Mane, and Rooney. These seemed like big risks, and were taken for granted in gemplate form here, and may have contributed to many earlly WCs.

My pain point is more around that the rmts are crossing out the strategic posts. If there is a feasible way to categorize some or many of them, it might lead better discussion. We can't stop human behavior to be comfy with consensus, conformity, etc., though. That will be an individual difference variable (some professional psychobabble for y'all).

It seems you've had very little backing her Ruth, but I totally agree.

The site is doing a fantastic job, but this herd mentality towards the template really frustrates me. I currently have team not a millions miles away from the "template", but I would have done so anyway, because I've reacted to the form of certain players as I've done for past decade and more (beyond the past two years since I found the site).

However, I now have a competitor in a cash ML who has an almost identical team to me, because (to his delight) he's found FFS and he's been directed to his template. I love the insightful articles, great analytical tools, stats, tickers that empower players to be far more knowledgeable than the wider FPL community. This is the FFS community's advantage. Poor or average players coming on and being spoon-fed their team selections gives people too much of a leg up for me.

Some people on here (I nearly used the word 'members' instead, but that's likely not the case), simply use the forums to quiz experienced players continually about this player or that players, and offer nothing in return. Often their RMTs will not offer any options and rationale that repliers are asked to decide one way or the other on, but rather simply ask 'How can I improve this?'.

Fantasy Football is all about about picking a team and evolving it with clever transfer business. That's the challenge. Coming on to the forum to ask someone else to tell you what you should be doing just infuriates me. Use the fantastic tools the site puts at your disposal to make your own decisions.

I realise I went slightly off topic, but I also agree that we as a community can have a marked effect on price rises for low ownership players. I know you can't prove it, but for me, no question!!

I've read all the posts in this thread with interest. My first point would be, with 25 up votes, I'm unsure why this has not been hulked? It's clearly a hot topic and I can only conclude that one or more scouts not agreeing with the premise of Ruth's post means it is not being flagged for all to read.

Ruth, for what it is worth, I think your suggestion that this website drives a significant proportion of transfers in FPL, a valid one. After all, Mark created the beast and is now looking to tame it... 😉

It was a shame you had to call for the ban of RMT's as I think this main point around transfers has or is being, lost. It stands to reason that players that regularly frequent FFS are more hands-on managers; they're more likely to be familiar with impending price changes and more likely than the 'casual' to make an early transfer to maximise team value or minimise price drops. I can't really see how that is in doubt.

By extension, certain players are favourites of this site - for all the right logical reasons. They may be well priced, or have a great run of fixtures, or known to be on set pieces, etc. These players stand out because they're recommended in RMT's but in the FPL game as a whole, their ownership is low. Ruth has provided several examples and again, I think it is extremely likely that because that player is owned by a high percentage of FFS managers, then that player is more perceptible to price drops than another player with the same overall ownership % but not as fashionable on FFS.

This can be illustrated (if not proven) by looking at players which despite not returning early points, have had less transfers out than fancied players on FFS. I don't know their ownership % for GW1, but consider Ritchie and Puncheon. Ritchie, hugely backed on here, had seen 60k transfers out heading into GW3, while Puncheon at the same price and equally under performing FPL-wise, had just 40k. The result being that Puncheon is still 6m, while Ritchie has dropped to 5.8m.

I think the message to take away from it all is that the community will highlight the better picks, BUT if they do not start the season with a bang, you need to move quickly as price drops are more likely than with less fashionable players.

26 upvotes 126 replies and not a hot topic?

'Wildebeest herds' is clearly a dig at their more illustrious cousins the Gnu.
I'm not having it.

Good post, Ruth. I don't fully agree with you but keep questioning things like you do.

While I post RMTs (because I feel a question on 2 or 3 options requires the whole squad to make a proper decision), I find you rarely hit the question at exactly the right time to get sufficient quality responses. It does, however, often highlight the basic errors that I am often making, despite my experience at the game. I don't really see how you could stick RMTs in a separate post without killing the site. Creating a forum with separate posts has been discussed before and while the hot topis etc has drawn some posts apart form the main thread, this forum has evolved from a one thread conversation.

Cheers

Dodgy ranks though

That would be fantastic.

Overthink much?

a lot of swansea's data is based on playing teams vs 10 men (or 10 and Rooney which is like the same)

You can reduce the data for him playing 10 men but you can't totally remove them and say 0 count in a normal situation imo.

That being said, Gomis and Ayew are going to regress for sure.

Ignore stats. Watch the games. He's looked threatening every time I've seen him play.

... he is just efficient.
and he was in France and in PL absolutly great in headers

It says a lot about his frame of mind and role in the side.

He will be in the box often and looking for goals. He is a quality player too, can pick out a pass.

Very good plan ... but Watford are doing rather well ...

I never bought into the ritchie hype. No point holding onto rotting wood.

give it another 33 weeks then maybe swap

Rooney

I choose kdb

NAILED.

I've watched most of Ramsey's games this season (including Wales last night) and he's really looked below par. Yes, he did score and was unlucky for it not to have stood but I'd avoid him for now.

It'll be interesting to see what Bellerin does as its a long time since Arsenal have had a notably attacking full back, arguably going back to Ashley Cole. The thing with Arsenal is that Wenger uses his width quite asymmetrically preferring to focus on one of Sanchez or Walcott/Ox depending who's on the pitch, on the other side he'll use numbers in combination slightly narrower, this is where you see Ramsey/Ozil/Giroud combining more often. Also across all of Arsenal's midfield there are a significant number of positonal switches, you should see the other mids with similar heat maps too.

All in all I think you're right for as long as Arsenal need a goal but Bellerin's movement will be quelled as soon as Arsenal take leads. Plus Ramsey's always been a good option since his breakout season.

Benteke looks like a trap to me, yes he has good fixtures but he's not getting the service he needs and that is a fundamental problem.

Thinking Tekers >Gomis -4 if he's doubtful for United.

Don't take out Pelle if you do want Gomis. Surely it has to be Benteke out, playing utd and no Coutinho for service.

You'd think so!

Second season syndrome...

Shirley, is that you?

I'm going to get Son for my iteam.

I don't think so no... Ans don't call me Shirley!

No keep hazard

I would trade for Silva, I just picked up De Bruyne in my own league though and it feels so good.

Happy Birthday kid

Happy Birthday. I hope you're smuggling in a hip flask to make the game bearable. 🙂

Happy Bithday. Have a good one 🙂

Happy birthday mate! I bloody hope we do it to help set up a party in Portugal

Just thinking about clicking on a Daily Mail link makes me feel like I want a shower

Stopped reading at dailyfail

How does it matter!
Even if Welbeck was fully fit, Arsenal would still need a new striker!
Welbeck is far from being a good finisher and not that you can count on him.

Just too bad for Arsenal fans!

They have a point actually.
Seems highly likely imo.

Only club in top 5 leagues to sign no outfield players?
Thats ridiculous when they went out of europe with a whimper and havent won the league in a decade or so.

awful