It seems far too early to be assessing Anthony Martial, Manchester United’s exciting new forward. The 19-year-old has played just 116 minutes of Premier League football since his £36 million move from AS Monaco.
However, the young French striker has scored three times in those 116 minutes and Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers have swarmed to buy him since the final whistle blew at St Mary’s Stadium. Martial looks an exciting young striker who has invigorated the Red Devils’ attack.
Martial’s underlying stats tell an interesting story though. In his Premier League career he has hit four shots, including three in the box and three on target. The sample size is tiny so we can’t jump to conclusions, but while his accuracy is undeniable these numbers scream regression. Martial has scored with 100 per cent of his shots on target and 100 per cent of his shots in the box. That is simply not sustainable. Unless he drastically increases his shooting frequency, I do not expect him to return two goals every game.
But what about his data from Ligue 1? He scored nine goals from 51 shots, of which 56 per cent were on target. That rate of return is what we should expect from a good striker, but those figures don’t suggest he is exceptional. He is, of course, still very young and has plenty of time to develop.
Martial isn’t a bad Fantasy prospect – if he can score every other game he would be good value for his price – but Fantasy managers bringing him in should be realistic about his prospects.
Bafétimbi Gomis and Christian Benteke, who at 7.5 and 8.5 respectively are in the same price bracket, seem to be the main fall guys for those looking to draft in the Manchester United teenager. Given Benteke is flagged as injured currently, that makes some sense, but Gomis is another story. He has blanked in his last couple of games, but he has four goals from six matches this season. Gomis has taken six shots, including four in the box and four on target in the last two Gameweeks, so his underlying statistics look fine in every respect other than the goals scored column.
Buying Martial for Gomis seems a sideways move unless the FPL manager also owns André Ayew and no longer wants a Swans double-up. Martial has Sunderland next, which is a great fixture for potential returns, but after that he faces Arsenal and Everton away and Manchester City at home. Gomis’ next four games aren’t stunning (sot, TOT, STO, avl) but they look better than Manchester United’s fixtures.
8 years, 8 months agoFixtures plus Gomis and Wilson not doing anything wrong to justify removal are stopping me from getting him. That goal to shot ratio also looks completely unsustainable.