Fixture Proof v Flat Track Bullies

Here I look at determining whether players are flat track bullies, who score and assist more against weaker defensive teams and those that are more consistent and perform well against both tough and easy sides.

The Research

For this research the opponent defensive strength or fixture difficulty was measured using shots in the box conceded at the end of the season or for 2015-16 up to Gameweek 16. I also factor in home vs away. For players that have been in the the Premier League a while this research uses data from season 2013-14 to 2015-16 up to Gameweek 16. The players who have only joined this season have a lot smaller sample size so take those with more caution.

Results

• Diego Costa and Eden Hazard really stand out as flat track bullies with Hazard having the pedigree of being the fourth best attacking contributor over the past 2.5 seasons. If the new manager can get the best out of these two they could be worth looking at. Especially with the next six fixtures having Sunderland (2nd worst defence), Crystal Palace, Everton and West Brom all in the bottom half of the shots in the box conceded.
• Sergio Aguero is the highest attacking contributor over the past 2.5 seasons and while it is not a massive correlation (18%) he does do better against weaker opposition. Past Arsenal this week there is a nice run of five games. As a Harry Kane replacement or if Jamie Vardy gets his 5th yellow and Aguero stays fit he is pretty tempting
• Romelu Lukaku being the second highest attacking contributor was surprising to me. His correlation shows he has been hard to predict in the past, although he has performed a lot better against the weaker teams this year
• David Silva and Mesut Ozil in particular have high attacking returns and are relatively fixtureproof. These are great consistent players to own as they tick over nicely with six to eight point hauls most weeks.
• Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez show their massive consistency this year, and even when adding in last season’s data show they can perform against anyway. Maybe if they keep going Top four is not out of the question
• This is a low sample size but Delli Alli, Junior Stanislas and Josh King show their value as fifth midfielders that can be played confidently in the easier games

Conclusion

I think it is better to have more flat track bullies in general for Fantasy Premier League as we get transfers, so it is good to be able to bring in players that are more likely to perform against the weaker teams and take them out when they face stronger teams. A couple of more consistent players are of course good and naturally come into the template