634x258 Games
23 December 2015 3038 comments
Tom Fenley Tom Fenley
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It’s time to pop out to the Weekly Shop this evening, as we assess the player lists of our partner games to pinpoint the likely targets that will make up our weekend lineups.

The player analysis is split into two sections: I’ll break down the key targets that no squad can do without in “Better Buys”, before seeking out those one-shot “Poundstretcher” prospects that can provide us points, whilst freeing up funds.

For this week’s selection, we’re scanning the players lists in our two partner games – FantasyBet and Premier Punt.

Better Buys

A shut-out at Villa is hardly a notable achievement but after a third away clean sheet in five matches, it appears Arsene Wenger may have established a pragmatic approach to picking up precious points on the road. The visit to a Southampton side that have scored just twice in their last five gives Petr Cech (FantasyBet 5.5m, PremierPunt 7.6m) the chance to earn another shut-out – the Gunners keeper has averaged over three saves per match so far and is now joint fourth in the shot-stoppers leaderboard with Boaz Myhill.

Spurs picked up a sixth clean sheet of the season in their trip to St Mary’s and a seventh is on the cards as promoted Norwich visit White Hart Lane. The Canaries scored twice at Old Trafford but failed to net in their previous two away trips and have registered less shots on target (eight) than any side over the last four Gameweeks. Eric Dier (FantasyBet 5m, PremierPunt 7.9m) struck a third goal of the season in their last outing at home – it’s worth noting that all three of his goals have arrived in front of their own fans this season. Toby Alderweireld (FantasyBet 5.5m, PremierPunt 8.2m) also does well at the Lane, having scored twice there so far.

Riyad Mahrez’ (FantasyBet 6.5m, PremierPunt 9.1m) extraordinary season continued with a brace at Goodison, with nine of the Algerian’s 13 goals arriving on the road. With a visit to Anfield on Boxing Day, the midfielder should prosper against a shaky Liverpool defence that’s been hit hard by injuries and has managed just one clean sheet in the last eight Gameweeks.

City’s defeat at Arsenal was another blow in a poor run of away form, though a plum home fixture against Sunderland should allow them to recover some poise, having won seven of nine matches at the Etihad. Kevin de Bruyne (FantasyBet 10.5m, PremierPunt 10.2m) has now blanked in five of his last six outings but clearly prefers home comforts, with three goals and four assists in seven appearances in front of his own fans. The return of Sergio Aguero (FantasyBet 13m, PremierPunt 16m) should reignite City’s title tilt, though, and whilst we don’t expect the Argentine to last from start to finish, he should still have enough time to do the damage against a team that have conceded 12 goals in their last four away trips.

Harry Kane (FantasyBet 9.5m, PremierPunt 13.5m) scored just once in the opening nine league Gameweeks and, after netting seven times in the subsequent four, there were fears that a three-match barren streak had halted his progress. A weekend strike at Southampton suggests he may be about to embark on another purple patch, though, and with Norwich up next at the Lane, he looks a strong candidate for our frontlines this weekend.

Poundstretchers

Slaven Bilic is still missing four of his first-choice attacking players so looks to be focusing on resilience, with three consecutive goalless draws for the Hammers. A trip to Villa Park represents a good chance of another clean sheet, with Villa failing to score in five of their eight matches at home so far – keeper Adrian (FantasyBet 5m, PremierPunt 6.9m) provides a safe route into the backline, though full-back Aaron Creswell (FantasyBet 5.5m, PremierPunt 7.4m) offers a chance of attacking returns for a little more outlay.

Scott Dann (FantasyBet 5.5m, PremierPunt 7.4m) has scored in two of Crystal Palace’s last three away trips as Alan Pardew’s men visit a Bournemouth side that have been breached 11 times in their last four home fixtures. Furthermore, the Eagles have been somewhat unfortunate only to earn a single clean sheet on their travels, bearing in mind they have conceded just seven times on the road, the joint-best record in the league so far.

Only West Ham (101) have conceded more shots on target away from home than Norwich (100), making a double-up of Spurs attackers a viable option. Dele Alli’s (FantasyBet 5m, PremierPunt 7.9m) recent form in the number 10 role peaked against Southampton, with a goal and assist at St Mary’s making the youngster a potential alternative to Harry Kane.

Gylfi Sigurdsson (FantasyBet 7m, PremierPunt 10.7m) has had a disappointing season, with just two goals and a single assist served up so far. The Icelander has made a strong case for inclusion since the departure of Garry Monk, though – he’s fired 10 attempts on goal in the last two matches, compared to Andre Ayew’s four efforts, highlighting his points potential ahead of a home encounter with West Brom.

Villa must start picking up points if they are to avoid relegation, with Remi Garde’s basement-dwellers now sitting ten points behind fourth-bottom Newcastle. If they do manage to breach the West Ham backline, it’s likely to be Jordan Ayew (FantasyBet 5.5m, PremierPunt 7.1m) with the breakthrough, given that the Ghana international has scored four of his side’s six goals over the last eight rounds of matches.

These are the contenders for my weekly contest lineups heading into the weekend. I’ll return on Friday with a further assessment of this week’s partner games – FantasyBet and Premier Punt, as I continue my quest for profit in the 2015/16 campaign.

  1. Total Foot 5
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    aguero. anyone waiting till last minute to bring him in to make sur he is healthy got SUN?

    1. EmreCan Hustle
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Yes.

      1. Ratatouille
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        Nopes

  2. Nabs Kebabs
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Bottomed

    Morning Dz, thought on making 2 fairly agressive moves in Francis/Kane to Alderweireld/Aguero?

    Would give me this:

    Butland
    Alderweireld, Monreal, Dann
    Silva, Ozil, Ramsey, Mahrez
    Kun, Lukaku, Ighalo

    Schmeichel, Evans, Van Dijk, Anya 0.6m

    1. RubeRx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Kane to Kun could easily backfire..

      1. Nabs Kebabs
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        could easily work out aswell 😉

        1. Cheeseoid
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 11 months ago

          Any of 6 forwards could be the best. It is a tough call at the moment

    2. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Not sure. Lots are going for Aguero and it could pay off but it might not as well. Spurs have good fixtures as well

      1. Nabs Kebabs
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        If Kane's recent stats were better i'd definitely keep but it's his poor performances as of late that have me itchy...

  3. Cheeseoid
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    I braved the wind and now I am back with some much nicer coffee

    1. ​
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      I thought you were going through a full box of 20 😛

  4. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Hi. What would you do with this team???
    Butland
    Azpi, Coleman, Dawson ( Martin, Francis)
    Mahrez, ozil, coutinho, KDB, (Alli)
    Vardy, lukaku, Kane

    2fts, 2.4 itb

    1. RubeRx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Coutinho âž¡ Ramsey/Walcott/Silva

    2. Jape
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Bench Coutinho over Alli.

      1. Jape
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        Also upgrade Martin or Francis

  5. Total Foot 5
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    lovesong. the cure. how great is this song.arguably their best.

    announced on tour in europe in 2016.

  6. fancy111
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Best keeper to partner Gomes over the next few game weeks?

    Myhill or Butland?
    Other?

    1. Jape
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Myhill

    2. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      When is Foster coming back for West Brom? Butland wouldn't have that problem

      1. fancy111
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        That's what I've been wondering... Still unknown return date but is apparently back in training. You would think he'd have a few matches in the under 21s before coming back right?

        1. Jape
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 11 months ago

          As Andy said on Scoutcast, I can't see them putting Foster straight back in the team. After the New Year probably

          1. Cheeseoid
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            9 years, 11 months ago

            But do you want to set yourself up knowing another keeper transfer may be necessary further down the line now?

            But land is the better keeper as well imo

            1. Jape
              • 10 Years
              9 years, 11 months ago

              Valid point. You will be able to change that on the WC though.

              1. Cheeseoid
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 13 Years
                9 years, 11 months ago

                Yep. If you are thinking of playing it early on absolutely

                1. fancy111
                  • 10 Years
                  9 years, 11 months ago

                  Also a valid point

              2. fancy111
                • 10 Years
                9 years, 11 months ago

                That's my thought on the 6 weeks... Gets past the Januaru transfer window and can them WC... The issue is I have Gomes who has a tough run of fixtures coming up.

                1. Jape
                  • 10 Years
                  9 years, 11 months ago

                  Watford have proven they can handle big teams though.

                  Butland is also a good choice, but Stoke's fixtures aren't great either.

                  Lloris is an option for a bit more money.

                  1. fancy111
                    • 10 Years
                    9 years, 11 months ago

                    Have three Tottenham players already. Also trying To keep to a max of 5.1 if possible.

                    1. Jape
                      • 10 Years
                      9 years, 11 months ago

                      Adrian might be a good shout then.

          2. fancy111
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 11 months ago

            Still haven't had a chance to listen to it. Thanks 🙂

    3. Rolls-Royce
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Yeah, Foster back soon, so Butland.

    4. fancy111
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Thanks guys. Will have to think quick... Looks like Butland will rise tomorrow

      1. Cheeseoid
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        I wish I had gone for Butland when I was choosing between the 2. No 3 on my bigger mistakes this season

  7. EmreCan Hustle
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Coleman+Vardy->>Smith+Aguero(-4)?

    I would still have Alder, Bertrand, Dawson and Simpson in defense.

    1. Moss
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      What about Coleman to Bellerin/Koscielny? I wouldn't get rid of Vardy for a hit.

      1. EmreCan Hustle
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        Coleman to Bellerin is always an option if I choose to ignore Aguero. But I'm really worried about not owning Aguero.

    2. Trae44
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Nah

      1. EmreCan Hustle
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        Any updates on Vardy fitness? I know no news is good news, but still ðŸ™

  8. camarozz
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Yeah was tinkn coutinho > Ramsey but then iv Alli benching headache and iv had that two wks now. Mayb bench Vardy?
    And upgrade Martin or Francis to alderwerild I tink but then iv 4 good defenders and I only play 3??
    Or I could upgrade Vardy to giroud and coutinho to Ramsey.
    Feck it, too many choices

    1. EmreCan Hustle
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Get Ramsey. Keep Vardy.

  9. Puyol Pants Up
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Would you sell Vardy or Kane to Aguero?

    1. Jape
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Neither, but Kane if I had to

    2. EmreCan Hustle
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Vardy this week. Kane has Norwich. Plus I feel, despite the price loss you'll suffer, Vardy is still cheap enough to transfer in later.

    3. Jigger & Pony
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Wait

    4. Canadian Football
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      wait one week

    5. Nickofoz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Vardy

    6. LE GOD(C)-AMERICAN DYCHO-(1…
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Many are.. I'm hiding and hoping for Aguero non starter/rested/58mins/blank/Sunderland bus

    7. Akeem
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      If Vardy is fit, he'll outscore Kun this GW.
      Allardyce managed Sunderland defence parking the bus > Liverpool defence @ home ( - Skrtel)

    8. Eden Hazardous
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Vardy

  10. Cheeseoid
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    So my self imposed benching dilemma

    Hennessey
    Rose - Kolarov - Souare
    Mahrez - Ramsey - KDB - Barkley - Ozil
    Kane - Lukaku

    Bench -Myhill - Vardy - Dawson - Moreno

    It seems crazy but is Vardy the right man to bench? I guess it is probably him or KDB

    1. Jape
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Honestly i'd bench Barkley.

      KDB looked threatening against Arsenal and loves playing at home.

      Vardy...Well it's Vardy.

      1. Cheeseoid
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        I benched Barkley last week and it wasn't great for me. Yeah I could do it again

        1. Jape
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 11 months ago

          It's tricky for sure.

          A leaky Liverpool with lots of injuries

          or

          A Newcastle side who have looked better in their last few games.

          1. Cheeseoid
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            9 years, 11 months ago

            Thanks. I think the decision will come down to the wire

      2. ​
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        Can I interject on the KdB at home crap?

        http://www.statto.com/football/teams/manchester-city

        check the home games City have played vs the away games City have played. Its pretty much a bottom half vs top half split.

        1. Jape
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 11 months ago

          This proves my point if i'm not wrong? 🙂

          1. Eden Hazardous
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 11 months ago

            City have played tougher oppositions away

            1. Jape
              • 10 Years
              9 years, 11 months ago

              The only tough fixture, for a City team, they played away on that list is Arsenal.

              Saying that they had a tough fixture at home in Liverpool.

              1. ​
                • 12 Years
                9 years, 11 months ago

                Spurs are a serious team this year as are Man U (if not the most attacking) and Palace under Pardew are pretty good even if they are a step below.

                1. Jape
                  • 10 Years
                  9 years, 11 months ago

                  I'm not saying they're not serious teams. I was basing that comment off of the games from your link.

                  Anyway I see your point and I stand corrected 😀

                  1. ​
                    • 12 Years
                    9 years, 11 months ago

                    The are very few home/away players in the league who display this trait beyond the league average. The league average is ~15% more goals scored at home than away and most players fall within variance of this over the a full season of even fixture strength home & away. Curiously Hazard is one of those players who really does seem to be beyond natural variation and very much likes the home comforts of the bridge.

                    1. Jape
                      • 10 Years
                      9 years, 11 months ago

                      Couple more weeks and Hazard may be a serious option then

                      1. ​
                        • 12 Years
                        9 years, 11 months ago

                        Yup, I'm eye-balling week 21 or 25 as potential landing dates for him

          2. ​
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 11 months ago

            No it suggests, he's just been playing the easier teams at home. Much like Austin's 11 goals in 10 home games in August through December last year, QPR, played the rest of the bottom 10 in their first 10 home games, with all their away games against top half teams. Everyone was raving about their home record then lo and behold their home record shrivelled up as they started playing harder teams at home.

            By all means play KdB vs Sunderland at home, but don't be surprised if the rest of his home games don't meet expectations.

        2. Eden Hazardous
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 11 months ago

          This^

    2. Nabs Kebabs
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Vardy isn't that explosive imo, so best option

    3. EmreCan Hustle
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Bench Barkley. Least consistent of the lot.

    4. Jigger & Pony
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Vardy feels right

    5. LE GOD(C)-AMERICAN DYCHO-(1…
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      I'm also benching Vardy, gut feeling this GW.

    6. fancy111
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      I'd go with Vardy... You're still covered with Mahrez and as mentioned already Vardy not as explosive

    7. Nickofoz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      G2G

    8. LE GOD(C)-AMERICAN DYCHO-(1…
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Interesting your playing double CP over double WBA. Clearly you see CP shutting Bou out and swans scoring?

      If you had Butland would you play him over Hennessey?

      1. Cheeseoid
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        I do rate CPL defence higher than the West Brom one this season for sure.

        I would play Hennessey over Butland as well this week.

        1. LE GOD(C)-AMERICAN DYCHO-(1…
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 11 months ago

          Thanks Robbo.. all out CP defence.

    9. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Thanks everyone. Sorry I had to pop away just after I asked that. Balders who would you bench this week?

      1. ​
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        Vardy or Barkley, Vardy on a coin toss.

        1. Cheeseoid
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 11 months ago

          Cheers. Always interesting

    10. Diva
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      I would bench Vardy Mr Cheese. It might backfire but I think I'd want all the other players on the pitch ahead of him given the injury uncertainty around him at present.

  11. Jigger & Pony
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Who to play, Butland or Hennessey this GW? Hennessey could get lots of save points...

    1. EmreCan Hustle
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Hennessey. Do or die for LVG.

    2. Diva
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      I'm going for Butland I think.

  12. Canadian Football
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Hey DZ, Is Hennessey definitely CPL #1? Is he under any threat from Spironi?

  13. LE GOD(C)-AMERICAN DYCHO-(1…
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    should I double up on CP this GW? Some key players out for Bournemouth and Crystal Palace pretty strong away from home. Or do I spread the risk

    Butland & Souare

    Hennessey & Souare

    1. Canadian Football
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      double up

    2. RubeRx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      PLay Butland

      United are woeful

    3. Diva
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      I'd play Butland.

  14. Home and Away Fixture Planning
    ​
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    tl;dr: Playing the fixtures anyone?

    With every team about to go on a stretch of home, home, away, away, home, home.... or the opposite pattern from gameweek 19 onwards for between 6 and 10 gameweeks, I think this might be the perfect week to roll a free transfer. This gives you 2FTs to take advantage of back to back home games, then you can rinse and repeat this strategy for the next 4 pairs of back to back homers where possible. This whole strategy hinges on the home field advantage which has been as strong as ever this year with home teams beating away teams 241-211 on aggregate over 170 games.

    The full list of how long these back to backs last for each team is as follows:

    ARS: BOU, NEW, liv, sto, CHE, SOT
    AVL: nor, sun, CPL, LEI, wba, whm, NOR, LIV
    BOU: ars, lei, WHM, NOR, sun, cpl, ARS, STO
    CHE: mun, cpl, WBA, EVE, ars, wat, MUN, NEW, sot, nor
    CPL: SWA, CHE, avl, mci, TOT, BOU
    EVE: STO, TOT, mci, che, SWA, NEW
    LEI: MCI, BOU, tot, avl, STO, LIV, mci, ars, NOR, WBA
    LIV: sun, whm, ARS, MUN, nor, lei
    MCI: lei, wat, EVE, CPL, whm, sun, LEI, TOT, new, liv
    MUN: CHE, SWA, new, liv, SOT, STO, che, sun, ARS, WAT
    NEW: wba, ars, MUN, WHM, wat, eve
    NOR: AVL, SOT, sto, bou, LIV, TOT
    SOT: whm, nor, WAT, WBA, mun, ars
    STO: eve, wba, NOR, ARS, lei, mun
    SUN: LIV, AVL, swa, tot, BOU, MCI
    SWA: cpl, mun, SUN, WAT, eve, wba, CPL, SOT, tot, ars
    TOT: wat, eve, LEI, SUN, cpl, nor
    WAT: TOT, MCI, sot, swa, NEW, CHE, tot, cpl
    WBA: NEW, STO, che, sot, AVL, SWA, new, eve
    WHM: SOT, LIV, bou, new, MCI, AVL, sot, nor, SUN, TOT

    In each split there are at least a couple of pairs you can bet on quite nicely, for instance most people have spotted Arsenal have Bournemouth & Newcastle back to back at the Emirates in weeks 19 & 20, so here's my digested view of how this strategy could work:

    Weeks 19 & 20:
    ARS: BOU, NEW
    WBA: NEW, STO
    Arsenal are the obvious bets here and I think the first priority should be to ensure a treble up but if you already have that under control, betting on a Pulis defender/Myhill could pay dividends especially as they then have AVL, SWA in weeks 23 & 24

    Weeks 21 & 22:
    BOU: WHM, NOR
    TOT: LEI, SUN
    MCI: EVE, CPL
    Bournemouth have been hitting their attacking groove recently and King, Stanislas or even Iturrbe if he arrives on time could well net back to back in these matches. For Tottenham's fixtures it'll take a brave man indeed to bet against a fit Harry Kane while City are City and have two home games at the Etihad which is invitation enough.
    All 3 teams here have kind away fixtures following to in case of injury emergencies preventing you from making a transfer out.

    Weeks 23 & 24:
    EVE: SWA, NEW
    WBA: AVL, SWA
    I'm guessing most of us will already have Lukaku, but if we've sold him in the intervening weeks this could be a good short-term timeframe to get him back for. Alternatively Coleman, Barkley or Deulofeu could profit well here doubling or trebling up on Everton. As mentioned previously, holding a WBA defender could pay off here. Man U also have good fixtures here but I wouldn't touch their attacking assets with a barge pole, though their defensive line up could be worth further scrutiny here.

    Weeks 25 & 26:
    CHE: MUN, NEW
    SWA: CPL, SOT
    MCI: LEI, TOT
    If Chelsea are back on their feet under Guus this could be a great time to load up on Hazard and either a defender or whichever striker they may or may not buy in January. At Swansea there may be good options again if they ever appoint a new manager and have a settled formation, while City are mentioned again by virtue of having two games at the Etihad.

    Weeks 27 & 28:
    LEI: NOR, WBA
    WHM: SUN, TOT
    You can't go too wrong here by making sure you have Vahrez & Payet.

    By this point we'll start getting good double gameweek info off the back of FA Cup replays and will likely be gearing up for wildcards when we can then reassess the lay of the land.

    1. Diva
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Interesting idea Balders. Thanks for sharing the research you've done on it too.

    2. Eden Hazardous
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Nice research Balders!

      Looks like my Arsenal treble will pay off and I should consider getting a WBA defender

      1. Eden Hazardous
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        I really NEED to bring in a WBA defender...maybe Foster

        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          9 years, 11 months ago

          Mind you, there is always one ... 😉

    3. Nickofoz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      +1

      Great stuff as always Balders 🙂

    4. RubeRx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Great read. Appreciate the insight and thanks for taking the time to post this.

      One minor caveat, however.

      'This whole strategy hinges on the home field advantage which has been as strong as ever this year with home teams beating away teams 241-211 on aggregate over 170 games'

      That stat might be a bit misleading because I assume you are just looking at goals scored vs goals against? Add them up yourself or get the stat from somewhere?

      I ask because I've been keeping up with scorelines this season. Home wins, away wins, ties etc.

      I will share with you because I think you would use this information wisely.

      These are the numbers I came up with thus far

      170 total games
      64 home wins (~37.6%)
      58 away wins (~34.12%)
      48 ties (~28.24%)

      The % of away wins is actually higher than seasons past, as the average is normally around 42% for home wins.

      Last season, it was at 44-45% home wins so it is natural for that number to regress hence all the away wins this season.

      Full scoreline breakdown here:
      https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_yLUxOYnWn7RUVDYTVMeHdBSjQ/view

      Let me know if the link is broke..

      1. ​
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        win %age may be a bit funky but goal numbers keep on chugging. I chucked this into excel and added the For and Against columns in the home/away splits:

        http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2015-2016/table

        1. RubeRx
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 11 months ago

          Very interesting.

          All we worry about as fantasy managers are goals anyways, we don't really care about who wins or loses.

          Going to need sometime to digest your post.

          Great work as always Balders

          1. ​
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 11 months ago

            Indeed, we are an easily pleased bunch where entertainment is placed above winning.
            I don't often actually get round to rolling an FT but I think 700 words later I've just convinced myself to do so, I hope it might inspire you down the line 🙂

      2. ​
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        thanks for the link by the way, thats in quite a friendly format to play with 🙂

    5. Akeem
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Thanks for this...somebody hulk it

    6. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Good work Balders

    7. Jigger & Pony
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Great stuff. Bookmarked. +1.

    8. ​
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Thanks all for the kind words by the way, I hope you do get to use it in some way or at least gets you thinking about playing fixtures 🙂

      Just one added thing, I've split the league into two groups "Step 1" start go H, H, a, a, H, H while "Step 2" go a, a, H, H, a, a which might help you work out how your team balance looks going into this.

      Step 1:
      Arsenal
      Crystal Palace
      Everton
      Leicester
      Man U
      Norwich
      Sunderland
      Watford
      West Brom
      West Ham

      Step 2:
      Aston Villa
      Bournemouth
      Chelsea
      Liverpool
      Man City
      Newcastle
      Southampton
      Stoke
      Swansea
      Tottenham

    9. Veraswami
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Great stuff balders !

    10. Bobbydhino - âš’ Saint Slav…
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Thanks for sharing your findings. Great as always.

    11. Rolls-Royce
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Very Useful. Thanks for this.

    12. GENERATION X
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Will be saving my first transfer but for the main reason I have 13 decent fit players. And you can look at the Boxing day fixtures and get some idea of who is going to play in GW19 - and who is in form and maybe hard to drop/rotate. Also get a decent look at Kun to see if he is back to his old self.

      The fact the fixtures fall well is an added bonus..

    13. Sterling Chap
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Great stuff old boy!

    14. Slam
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Extremely helpful, thanks! 🙂

    15. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Well done, Balders! + 42.

    16. ​
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Addendum to weeks 21&22

      Swansea: SUN, WAT

      I like this and Siggy and Williams at the moment.

      1. Ziro Becomes One
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        Yep. Thinking of the same at the moment. Already have Williams, will wait on Siggy while people focus on Payet

  15. Markus10
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Best 2 attackers for this gw
    A) ramsey
    B) willian
    C) alli
    D) giroud
    E) sigurdson

    Go!

    1. Man Chest Hair United
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      A and c look the best bets

    2. Nickofoz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      AC

    3. Diva
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      A and D I think.

  16. Man Chest Hair United
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Hazard a chance of bench appearance? I want to start him but don't want a cameo

    1. Diva
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      I thought he read he only began training today and didn't kast long. I might be wrong, but it didn't sound hopeful for a start anyway.

  17. Diva
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    My grand playoff rival already has Agüero. I could be 1 down very quickly. 😕

    1. Eden Hazardous
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      😛

    2. Man Chest Hair United
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Aguero could easily get 6 points or less as well

      1. Diva
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        True. I hope Big Sam parks Jose's bus.

    3. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      He could easily be injured stepping off the bus. What is his first sub like?

      1. Diva
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        Ayew or Arnie (or someone else, depending on where he spent his FT this week).

  18. Eden Hazardous
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Stanislas is no longer nailed with he signing of Iturbe?

    1. Jape
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      That guy is great on Fifa.

    2. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      I feel Iturbed

  19. Akeem
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Bench One please:

    A) Kolarov (SUN)

    B) Dier (NOR)

    C) Bellerin (sou)

    D) Ward (bou)

    1. johnbarnes
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      ward

    2. Diva
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Probably Ward.

    3. Bobbydhino - âš’ Saint Slav…
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Dier for me. Palace should be able to keep a CS against a Bournemouth side with its best scoring options injured.

  20. Cheeseoid
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Diva on his way to the Kennel club board meeting

    https://aterrier.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/barney_bush_complete.jpg

    1. ​
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      😀

  21. johnbarnes
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Is Firmino>Alli a no-brainer? and start Alli over Wijnaldum. Team would look like:

    DDG
    Kolarov-Bellerin-Aldi
    Mahrez-KDB-Alli-Ozil
    Ighalo-Vardy-Lukaku (c)

    Rudd; Wijnaldum, Ward, Cedric

    GTG?

    1. Diva
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Alli's a good fifth midfielder.

    2. Akeem
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Getting rid of Firmino is a no-brainer IMO...

  22. Jape
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    @Balders See my response above

  23. johnbarnes
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Also, WC related question: when's the last gw I can use my first WC? Or will I just keep having 2 throughout the season?

    1. Diva
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      GW19 I believe.

      1. ​
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        Correctomundo, 28 Dec 14:00 is the final deadline for it.

  24. tokara
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Is it silly to do Vardy --> Giroud?

    I want protect the league agst those chasing behind me and they do not have Vardy

    1. Kane Train
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      thinking the exact same thing. But he is doing the job right.

    2. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Perfectly sensible.

    3. Diva
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      I've already shipped Vardy so I struggle to argue against anyone doing likewise, but isn't without its risks.

  25. Diva
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    As it's quiet, any thoughts on this lot?

    -----------------Butland
    -------Kolarov-Dann-Bellerin
    Mahrez-Bolasie-Barkley-Ozil
    ---------Kane-Ighalo-Lukaku

    Hennessey, Ayew, Simpson, Moreno

    1FT 10.1m ITB

    I'm a little worried about being light on Manchester City this week.

    1. Eden Hazardous
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      I would be tempted to lose Ayew for Yaya Toure.

      1. Diva
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        Cheers. That's a move I've been mulling over. Not sure if I want to keep my FT or use it to buy a City player.

        1. Eden Hazardous
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 11 months ago

          Another option is Ayew > Ramsey

          1. Diva
            • 11 Years
            9 years, 11 months ago

            Yes, it's an option, though I'm thinking Barkley -> Ramsey next week.

    2. ​
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Barkley/Ayew -> Yaya?

      Or of course roll the FT 😉

      1. Diva
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        The fact two of you have read my mind suggests it should be the move I make, though your post above does make a case for rolling the FT...

        It's tricky because I have Barkley in my sights for removal next week, but it seems a little wrong to shift him before a game against Newcastle. Ayew somehow keeps surviving in my team week after week...

        1. ​
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 11 months ago

          I get what you mean but it then boils down to SUN or new and the home game wins out. What may make it easier for you with rolling is that Arsenal, Palace, Leicester and Everton are on the same home/away beat so only having 1ft in week 19 won't be so bad.

          I think Ayew -> Yaya looks good.

          1. ​
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 11 months ago

            then you can ditch Barkley after his STO, TOT stint.

          2. Diva
            • 11 Years
            9 years, 11 months ago

            More food for thought. Thanks Balders.

    3. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Ayew to Ramsey maybe?

      Or save it.

      1. Cheeseoid
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        I just prefer the look of Arsenal and the mids they have tbh

      2. Diva
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        Ramsey is penciled in as my possible Barkley replacement next week. I would like to save the FT for injuries etc, but I also feel I should have some kind of attacking stake in the Man City game.

        1. Cheeseoid
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 11 months ago

          You have Kolarov? How much more attacking do you need?

          If it has to be city I would go for KDB myself. Seems to do better with Aguero in the side for some reason

          1. Diva
            • 11 Years
            9 years, 11 months ago

            I prefer Yaya myself. I've never been sold on KDB and even less so at 10.8m.

            1. Cheeseoid
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 13 Years
              9 years, 11 months ago

              Fair enough. You have loads of cash though you should spare no expense

              1. Diva
                • 11 Years
                9 years, 11 months ago

                Part of the reason I have loads of cash is because I'm not buying expensive players just because I have the cash. I'll buy them if I think they might be better than other options at generating FPL points. 🙂

                1. Cheeseoid
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 13 Years
                  9 years, 11 months ago

                  I think he will get more points you don't! Just a difference of opinion

                  I wasn't suggesting you were tight with your imaginary money.

                  Although with your stack you should be getting the best players you feel will get the points not the poundland version. If that is Toure that is fine

                  1. Diva
                    • 11 Years
                    9 years, 11 months ago

                    Sorry Cheese, wasn't saying you were wrong. Just giving my opinion which could be just as likely to be wrong or right as yours. Thanks for the suggestion!

          2. ​
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 11 months ago

            Now this is an interesting theory on KdB to research.

    4. Ratatouille
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Bolasie>KDB. Play Ayew ahead of Barkley 🙂

      1. Diva
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        See my answer to your point below for my doubts re: Ayew.

    5. zøphar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      I see you mentioning losing barkley

      i wouldnt lose him for the 28th game, martinez says he wants minimal rotation. one of the few nailed on picks for that tricky gw

      1. Ratatouille
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        Not having a City midfield might be a risky adventure.

      2. Diva
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        My move for next week is not nailed down yet. Martinez may say he wants minimal rotation, but I think he rotated more than anyone last year. Could be different this year of course.

  26. Mancunian
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Who to bench out of those 3?

    A) Ramaey
    B) Barkley
    C) Vardy

    1. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Barkley

    2. waldo666
      • 15 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      B

    3. Diva
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      I would bench Vardy (I actually went a step further and sold him), but most would probably disagree with me.

    4. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      At the moment I have all of those 3 and am sat on Vardy benched. It is difficult

      1. Ratatouille
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        Im on b.

      2. tokara
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        i would start Vardy,...looking at the highlights from last game, Vardy + Marehz is deadly

        1. Cheeseoid
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 11 months ago

          Such a tough call

          1. tokara
            • 11 Years
            9 years, 11 months ago

            i think NC has tighten up, esp since home soil

            those diagnonal runs made by Vardy, omg...

            1. Mancunian
              • 12 Years
              9 years, 11 months ago

              That's exactly what I was imagining when I was considered benching him. You just can't neglect those runs

  27. Kane Train
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    What to do 2FT & 4.6itb Wanting to upgrade my bench with one trade .

    Butland
    Bellerin - Moreno - Toby
    Mahrez - Ozil - Barkley - Kdb
    Vardy - Lukaku - Kane

    subs: hennessey, wolls, simpson, gosling

    1. Kevtheotter
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Can't really think of anything mate

    2. Diva
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Nice team. It's hard to make a suggestion of how it could be improved!

    3. zøphar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      simpson/moreno the weak links there. maybe kompany in?

      1. Ratatouille
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 11 months ago

        Keep FT. Vardy>Ighalo next gameweek.

        1. zøphar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          9 years, 11 months ago

          he has 2 ft so might as well use one

  28. Kevtheotter
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Hey lads! Xmas break is here!! What you think on this lot?

    Butland
    Bellerin Rose Zouma
    Marhez Ozil KDB(c) Wijn
    Kane Lukaku Vardy

    McCarthy Evans Huth WW 1 FT 5.5ITB

    A) Save
    B) Kane/Lukaku to Kun
    C) Something else?

    Cheers

    1. Kevtheotter
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Also start Evans or Bellerin?

    2. Diva
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Probably A and start Bellerin.

  29. Ratatouille
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Good morning guys. Who do you think will be the best differential for the boxing day? For me it will be Andre Ayew.

    1. Diva
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      I think Swansea's chances against WBA depend on whether they field Montero. If they do the Swans could do well, but I'm not confident he will start given his limited minutes recently.

    2. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Sigurdsson and Mane

  30. passdpuck
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 11 months ago

    Butland or Myhill? Butland has the difficult match but he rarely disappoints and he's home...

    Also, Dann or Kolarov. Just worried about a rest for Kolarov.

    Thanks in advance.

    1. Cheeseoid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      If Kolarov doesn't play Dann would come in so play Kolarov

    2. Diva
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 11 months ago

      Butland and Kolarov for me from those selection options.