Frisking the Fixtures – Gameweek 21 – The Weak

Having rinsed through the sides with strong upcoming fixtures yesterday, our attentions turn to the teams who could face a trickier time over the next four-to-six Gameweeks. Southampton and Sunderland have a tough task to arrest their respective declines, whilst Stoke are also face with a testing start to 2016.

SOUTHAMPTON

Outwith the 4-0 victory over Arsenal, Saints have been struggling to find the back of the net of late, managing just three goals since Gameweek 13. Given both Man United and Arsenal have excellent defensive records at home, while West Ham and Swansea have both only conceded two goals in their last four matches, it appears unlikely scoring goals will become much easier over the next month or so. Those Fantasy managers that have kept faith in Sadio Mane (7.6) may be inclined to hold for the next two matches providing Ronald Koeman inserts the Senegal international back into his starting XI after dropping the attacker for failing to attend a pre-match team meeting. Even the West Brom fixture could be tricky, though, given the Baggies have allowed the fourth fewest number of shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks. Dusan Tadic (6.8) and Graziano Pelle (7.8) both have ownerships of over 5% in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), but neither currently warrant a place in our 15-man squads.

Looking at the prospects for the Southampton rearguard, it appears unlikely they’ll be able to keep out either United or Arsenal on the road, while West Brom somewhat surprisingly have registered the second highest number of shots from inside the box (40) over the last four Gameweeks. The Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney partnership will also be difficult to keep out next week, leaving only the West Ham and Swansea matches, neither of which is favourable. It’s hard to press the claims of any member of the Saints backline, then, with defensive returns set to be hard to come by over the coming period.

STOKE

While the Potters have kept a hugely impressive eight clean sheets in their last 13 matches, and have favourable matches against Norwich and Bournemouth in the next six, it’s difficult to see them managing many shut-outs against their other four opponents on the upcoming slate. Arsenal are riding high at the top of the table, and while they tend to struggle at the Britannia, there’s a good chance they’ll be able to score, having netted in all but two of their 10 away matches. Likewise, Everton have found the back of the net in each of their last six away trips, while Man United have looked a far more dangerous attacking unit over the past two Gameweeks. The Leicester fixture doesn’t look as tough as it did a month ago, with the Foxes having failed to score in their last three, but that also has to be classed as a tricky match-up, so while faith must be kept in Jack Butland (5.2) and members of the Stoke backline given their form over the past few months, some regression in their output appears likely.

It’s a similar story when assessing the prospects of the Stoke attackers, with the Norwich and Bournemouth clashes perhaps enough to keep faith in the likes of Marko Arnautovic (6.7) and Bojan (5.1). The Austrian has also scored against Tottenham, Chelsea, Man City and United this season, so is clearly a man who enjoys producing on the big occasion. If you don’t currently own a Potters midfielder or forward, now doesn’t look to be the moment to invest, though, with United allowing the fewest number of shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks (19), while Phil Jagielka’s return should see an improvement in Everton’s defence by the time the two teams meet in Gameweek 25. Leicester have also improved at the back recently, conceding just four goals in their last six matches.

SUNDERLAND

Given Liverpool and Man City are the two top ranked teams for total goal attempts over the last four Gameweeks, it’s difficult to see the Black Cats managing to keep out either side, particularly as they’ve failed to register a clean sheet in their last six. Tottenham also have to be backed to score against Sam Allardyce’s side as they’ve notched eight times in their last four matches, while the home clash against United in Gameweek 26 will also be pretty difficult. That leaves the fixtures against Swansea and Bournemouth, which are both fairly reasonable given both clubs feature among the bottom six teams for shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks, and have managed a meagre two goals each over the same period. Only John O’Shea (4.3) has an ownership of more than 1% in FPL among the Black Cats’ backline, and that certainly isn’t likely to change for the time being given the upcoming schedule.

The bad news regarding the potential of Sunderland’s attacking assets over the next six Gameweeks is that both Swansea and Bournemouth have been fairly strong defensively of late, conceding two and three goals respectively over the last four Gameweeks. Attacking points are likely to be in short supply in the other four fixtures, but as was the case at the back, ownership of Sunderland attackers is very low, with Jermain Defoe (5.1) leading the way , sitting in 2% of teams in FPL. The striker has scored in both of his appearances against Swansea over the past 12 months, but looks to have limited potential overall over the next month or so.

BE WARY OF…

Leicester
As already mentioned, the goals have dried up for the Foxes over the last three Gameweeks, and away trips to Tottenham, Man City and Arsenal in the next six certainly aren’t going to help improve matters. Home matches against Stoke and Liverpool are also pretty tricky, leaving only the trip to bottom of the table Aston Villa in Gameweek 22 as favourable. Jamie Vardy has already dropped to 7.5 in FPL this week following the news he could be a doubt for next Wednesday’s trip to Tottenham, with the appeal of doubling up with Vardy and Riyad Mahrez (7.2) lessening by the week.

The Foxes have been much improved at the back recently, keeping clean sheets in their last two matches. Regardless, it’s hard to see them snuffing out Tottenham, Man City and Arsenal on the road, while Stoke have scored an impressive eight goals in their last four matches. Liverpool have failed to score in three of their last four road trips, though, and while the Villa fixture is favourable, it’s hard to see Leicester defenders providing much use over the next few weeks.

Man City
While Manuel Pellegrini’s men face four home matches (EVE, CPL, whm, sun, LEI, TOT) in the next six, they do come up against some tough opponents at the Etihad. Everton and Crystal Palace both feature among the six clubs allowing the fewest number of shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks, while Tottenham have been one of the best defensive teams so far this season, conceding a league-low 16 goals. So while City’s attackers should still be amongst the attacking points, the likes of Kevin de Bruyne (10.9) and Sergio Aguero (13.1) may struggle to deliver the regular double-digit scores that justify their hefty price tags.

With Vincent Kompany on the sidelines, it’s tough to back the City defence with much confidence. Stopping the in-form Romelu Lukaku (if fit) next week may prove beyond them, although the Palace match-up in Gameweek 22 could yield a shut-out if Yannick Bolasie and Connor Wickham remain out. With just one clean sheet from their last eight matches, investment in the City backline appears unlikely to reap any rewards.

Liverpool
The Reds have scored exactly one goal in four of Jurgen Klopp’s five home matches, and with Arsenal and Man United visiting Anfield over the next two Gameweeks, it’s hard to see that poor record improving. With Philippe Coutinho (8.2) ruled out for around three weeks earlier today, Roberto Firmino could be the man to prosper ahead of fixtures against Norwich, Sunderland and Aston Villa, though it’s fair to say that Liverpool’s attack holds little upside at present.

Looking at the next six fixtures (ARS, MUN, nor, lei, SUN, avl) from a defensive perspective, there is a little more encouragement, with Norwich and Villa ranked among the three teams managing the least number of shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks, while a home clash with Sunderland should offer up a reasonable opportunity of a clean sheet. Raiding left-back Alberto Moreno (5.0) may be worth persevering with then, though given their growing injury crisis at the back, the Reds hold little appeal at either end of the pitch right now.