Frisking the Fixtures – Gameweek 23 – The Weak

After assessing the sides who face the most favourable schedules over the next four-to-six Gameweeks yesterday, our focus this afternoon turns to those teams who could be set to struggle over the next month or so. Southampton’s improvement is set to be put to the test, whilst Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez could toil to end their recent malaise as Leicester prepare for a tricky run of matches.

SOUTHAMPTON

Given that Man United have only conceded four goals at Old Trafford this season and Arsenal have allowed just two big chances over the last four Gameweeks (the joint-best record along with Tottenham), goals may be hard to come by for the Saints in their next two matches. Swansea have also kept clean sheets in three of their previous four home matches, so while the matches against West Ham, Chelsea and Bournemouth are reasonable, in particular the latter given the Cherries have allowed a league-high 11 big chances over the last four Gameweeks, we probably shouldn’t expect too much from Southampton attackers over the next few weeks. Additionally, there isn’t really a stand-out option for us to consider anyway, given Sadio Mane (7.5) hasn’t scored since Gameweek 10, while it remains to be seen who will start in attack with Shane Long the current first-choice, with new signing Charlie Austin also in the mix.

United and Arsenal have both scored six goals in their last four matches and will be expected to find the back of the net when Southampton visit. Surprisingly, both teams do only rank around the bottom of the top 10 for shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks with 50 and 49 respectively. The Gunners have created 11 big chances over the same period, though, and with Chelsea and West Ham not far behind with nine and eight, the prospects for defensive returns look somewhat slim, then. Swansea and Bournemouth feature among the bottom six sides for shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks, while both have only managed to score four goals over the same period. Those away trips could offer a chance of potential defensive returns then, but unless Matt Targett (3.7) can keep his place in the starting XI as a wing-back, Saints defenders appear unlikely to offer great value over the coming period.

LEICESTER

Claudio Ranieri’s men have been much tighter defensively of late, keeping clean sheets in three of their last four matches. It’s unlikely they’ll be able to keep out either Man City or Arsenal on the road, though, while no side has managed more goal attempts than Liverpool (81) over the last four Gameweeks. Stoke have also scored eight goals in their last four matches, so the prospects for defensive points in the short to medium-term at least appear pretty slim. The home matches against Norwich and West Brom at the end of the current block are favourable, though, with both teams failing to score in two of their last three away matches, so it could perhaps be worth keeping our Leicester defensive assets on the bench until those fixtures come around.

Of the Foxes next six fixtures, only the home clash against Norwich in Gameweek 27 looks favourable from an attacking point of view. Alex Neil’s side have allowed seven big chances over the last four Gameweeks, the third highest in the top flight, and have shipped six goals over that period. While West Brom have conceded the same number of goals since Gameweek 19, the Baggies have only allowed three big chances over the same period. That match-up isn’t particularly favourable then, while it would be a surprise to see Leicester score more than once in the trips to the Etihad and Emirates. After only scoring twice in their last five matches, confidence in Jamie Vardy (7.3) and Riyad Mahrez (7.2) is beginning to dissipate, particularly in the latter, after he was stripped of penalty duties. The pair will likely be afforded another chance by their large ownerships for Saturday’s home encounter against Stoke, but further blanks could be the final straw for some Fantasy Premier League (FPL) bosses.

SUNDERLAND

The Black Cats have failed to keep a clean sheet since Gameweek 14, and it appears unlikely there’ll be many picked up over the next six Gameweeks. Man City and Liverpool are ranked first and third for shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks, while West Ham have scored four goals in two matches since the return of Dimitri Payet. Man United will also fancy their chances of scoring at the Stadium of Light, having found the back of the net at St James’ Park and Anfield over the last nine days, so that only leaves the home clashes against Bournemouth and Crystal Palace as decent opportunities for clean sheets. Nonetheless, the attack-minded Patrick van Aanholt has thrived since Sam Allardyce was appointed, averaging five points per appearances despite their lack of resilience.

Big Sam’s men have found their shooting boots of late, scoring eight times in their last four matches, but will now come up against strong defences in the form of City and United, while Crystal Palace and West Ham are generally pretty solid defensive units. The Black Cats won’t find goals easy to come by at Anfield, leaving only the Bournemouth fixture on Saturday, which is clearly hugely significant in their battle to avoid relegation. As already mentioned, the Cherries can be found wanting at the back, but with only that match-up looking favourable in the next six, Fantasy managers will probably continue to dismiss Sunderland attackers for the time being.

BE WARY OF…

Tottenham
With Spurs facing four of their next six on the road (cpl, nor, WAT, mci, SWA, whm), our expectations for the likes of Harry Kane (10.0) and Dele Alli (5.5) should probably be tempered somewhat. Only one of Kane’s four double-digit scores have come away from White Hart Lane, so while only the trip to the Etihad in Gameweek 26 looks unfavourable, we could see a slight decline in the England international’s output. Alli has thrived away from home, though, with four of his five goals scored away from north London.

Likewise with the prospects of the Spurs backline, it is only the trip to Man City that stands out as a difficult fixture. Norwich and West Ham do have good goal scoring records at home, though, so although Crystal Palace, Watford and Swansea are all struggling to find the net right now, the likes of Toby Alderweireld (6.1) may have to come up with attacking returns to justify their price tags, with clean sheets possibly hard to come by over the coming weeks.

Newcastle
The Magpies are another side who face four away matches in the next six (wat, eve, WBA, che, MCI, sto). That is obviously particularly bad news for owners of Georginio Wijnaldum (6.9), who has scored all nine of his goals at St James’ Park. The Dutch international will also come up against tough defences in the shape of City, Stoke and to a slightly lesser extent Watford and West Brom, while trips to Goodison Park and Stamford Bridge can’t be deemed as favourable despite both defences struggling of late. Despite scoring once in the last six, Aleksandar Mitrovic leads the way for shots inside the box (20) over that period and is still getting chances aplenty.

Steve McClaren’s men have conceded exactly one goal in six of their last seven matches, and with only the home clash against West Brom in Gameweek 25 looking favourable in terms of possible defensive returns, members of the Newcastle may best be avoided until a kinder run of fixtures from Gameweek 29 onwards.

Man City
City’s form outside of the Etihad has been very poor in recent months, winning just one of their last seven on the road. So with four away fixtures over the next six Gameweeks (whm, sun, LEI, TOT, new, liv), it may be that Sergio Aguero (13.3) isn’t a default captain choice. Saturday’s trip to West Ham in particular could be tough for the Argentine, with the Hammers having not conceded more than one goal in any of their last six home matches. The 25%-owned Kevin de Bruyne, meanwhile, has produced points in just one of his eight away appearances.

With just one goal conceded in four, City have stepped up in resilience at the back but that poor form on their travels has to be a concern when it comes to assessing whether their defenders can justify their price tags over the coming period. Manuel Pellegrini’s recent rotation policy has hardly helped, either, with Aleksandar Kolarov’s owners awaiting updates on his calf complaint before planning their next move.

Swansea
The Welsh side have managed to keep four clean sheets in their last six matches, but the upcoming schedule (eve, wba, CPL, SOT, tot, ars) is deemed amongst the least favourable, according to our Season Ticker. Shut-outs certainly appear unlikely against Everton, Tottenham and Arsenal, so those owning the likes of Ashley Williams (4.8) will hope the centre-back can produce the goods in the reasonable home clashes against Crystal Palace and Southampton.

Goals have been in short supply for the Swans over the last few months, and while the next two away matches offer some hope for attacking returns, the lack of a plum home fixture in the next six means the likes of Andre Ayew (6.7) and Gylfi Sigurdsson (7.0) are unlikely to feature prominently among the mid-price midfield options considered by FPL bosses.