We all want to get off to a good start in the Fantasy Premier League game, so I decided to analyse last year’s Gameweek 1 (GW1) price changes and see what we could learn from them.
The season started on Saturday 8th August and GW1 ran from Saturday until Friday because Aston Villa hosted Man Utd on the first Friday night game (14/08). The first price changes occurred on Wednesday.
2015/16 GW 1 price risers
(G=Goals, A=Assist, CS=Clean Sheet, B=Bonus SP=Save Points)
Riyad Mahrez (2G, 3B) 15 points;
Matteo Darmian (1CS, 2B) 8 points;
Joe Gomez (1A, 1CS, 3B) 11 points;
Philippe Coutinho (1G, 1CS, 2B) 10 points;
Vincent Kompany (1G, 1CS, 2B) 14 points;
Adrian (1CS, 2SP, 3B) 11 points;
Reece Oxford (1CS) 6 points.
Last year only seven players went up in value, none of which were classed as forwards in the game. Nobody who scored less than six points went up in price and Oxford’s main reason for going up in price was the fact that he was at that point considered a £4m playing defender. The only midfielders to go up in value were Mahrez and Coutinho, who both had double digit scores.
2015/16 GW 1 price fallers
Leonardo Ulloa, David de Gea, Libor Kozak, Loic Remy, Andrej Kramaric, Patrick Bamford, Radamel Falcao, Dwight Gayle, Leighton Baines, Alberto Moreno, Danny Ings, Divock Origi, Phil Jones, Andreas Pereira, Ayoze Perez, Ricky Van Wolfswinkel, Juanmi and Joselu.
Q: Can you spot the odd one out in the list of players above?
A: The answer is Falcao, who was the only player to get pitch time (he played seven minutes) and drop in value. The other players all played zero minutes.
The Monday night game in GW1 was West Brom 0 Man City 3. Neither team had a player who dropped in price.
What can we learn from this?
Last season’s price changes show that picking a player who actually starts a game will most likely not drop in value during GW 1 bar in-game injury or suspension. People’s first reaction is to sell anyone who didn’t get any game time, so pick sure starters and avoid trying to save £0.5m by going for a player without assured game time.
Picking a player who plays on Monday night has less time to drop therefore less chance of a drop in GW1. Most people have already made or thought about their transfer for the week by the time that game comes around. If you are more of a manager who likes a maverick pick it may therefore be prudent to have any risky or differential picks from teams playing on the Monday night. This Season the Gameweek 1 fixture is Chelsea against West Ham.
We’ve seen a trend in recent years that a midfielder priced around the £5.5m – £6m price bracket (e.g. Mahrez, Gylfi Sigurdsson, Aaron Ramsey, Michu) seems to increase in price dramatically early on. These players seem accessible due to heavy hitters being downgraded and sideways moves from one cheap midfielder to another. It may be worth devoting your 4th or 5th most expensive midfielder to a player in this price bracket with the sole intent of predicting who the next Mahrez could be. This player is typically a nailed on, attacking player who plays early in the Gameweek with ideally a home fixture against a team not considered to be title contenders.
7 years, 8 months agoThanks for this - flexibility is key so being able to find the next Mahrez is important. That is assuming that there will be a new Mahrez - it may be that no 5.5m excels.