In the first of a number of members articles over the international break, we delve into the data from the Gameweek gone by. Palace’s approach with Christian Benteke arrives under the radar, whilst we also take a look at Paul Pogba’s first away outing for United, Chelsea’s in-form attacking duo and the performance of City’s playmaker in the weekend win over West Ham.
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Redmond and Aguero -> Sterling and Costa?
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Personally prefer Lukaku to Costa
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Good shout, but I'm worried because I hate owning when he's on form, let alone now he's not looking sharp.
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Same Dilemma.... Redmond and Aguero -> Ozil and Costa for me
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If you Have Hazrd .. So Who is the best to get ?
A- Negerdo
B- Costa-
I don't like either option? Why only those two?
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Whoever will score the most.
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Costa. There's a reason he's priced higher than Negredo.
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Which option for when Aguero returns?
A:
Valencia 4.5 4.5 4.5 Amat
Hazard Ozil Firmino Lamela Capoue
Aguero Zlatan (Diamonde)
B:
Valencia 4.5 4.5 4.5 Amat
Hazard Ozil Firmino Capoue (Hojberg)
Aguero Zlatan Benteke
C:
Valencia Baines 4.5 4.5 Amat
Hazard Ozil Lamela Capoue
(Hojberg)
Aguero Zlatan Benteke
3rd time asking, one answer. Please take a second to give me a vote.-
C
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Thanks!
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Neither.
All three have Capoue starting-
I think Capoue can be considered a valid 4th mid option with their upcoming fixtures
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What's wrong with Capoue?
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Capoues fixtures are great and he is very involved in Watfords attacking play so far!
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B
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Thanks!
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B
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Thanks!
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Don't like any tbh
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Because Capoue is a starter?
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C
Without Lamela-
Antonio?
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What's wrong with Lamela?
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None. Capoue can't start
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With fixtures I think Capoue will match any 5.5-6 mid that most have as their 4th mid
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C.
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Thanks!
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Hiya lads, last piece of the jigsaw for my WC team
which do you prefer?
A) Sanchez & Mirallas
B) Ozil & Lamela
Any help with this would be great. Thankyou.-
b
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b
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Thanks guys, seems logical really as i would have Lukaku up front also. B it is 🙂
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B
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Does Jaku keep his spot after arrival of Marshall?
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He'll keep it for the time being, imao
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Not sure. Get Pickford instead.
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Moyes buying a keeper tomorrow. after his emergency cover application being turned down.
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How long is Mannone out for?
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I hope not.
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Chances are (fingers crossed) he'll be buying a backup. After all Moyes has been singing Pickfords praises, even before Mannones injury.
3 mths btw
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Thoughts?
Foster
McAuley Collins Amat
Sanchez Hazard Mane Sterling Antonio
Ibrahimovic Lukaku
Jakupovic Diomonde Kingsley Love-
Defence too weak, Mane > Lamela/Cout/Firm and upgrade Collins to Williams and 4 > 4.5 starter?
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Price Change Thresholds
For those thinking of keeping Aguero:
Remember that casuals (for lack of a better word to describe the majority of the FPL population) drive price changes. It's very early in the season so many of these players, who sooner or later will drop interest, are still active. At 6 PM tomorrow, Aguero will almost certainly be red-flagged and he'll keep this red flag until September 20th: 3 full weeks.
Yes the threshold of NTO goes up for him to drop in price but with the 3 full weeks to pass, and nearly 2 million managers owning him, he will plummet. I wouldn't be surprised if he was 12.6m by the time the flag comes off.-
What if those casuals have already stopped playing?
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Hmm, I wonder what happens 😕
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Sub managers probably have but my theory is the social media/TV push for FPL this season has kept, and will keep, more managers active longer than they would have in previous seaosns.
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well 2.8% still have joe hart
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No chance I'm surrounded by them, I'd give it a couple more months till all of them have had chance to have a few bad GWs till u can say thay are starting to stop playing.
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Kun at 12.6 would be a delight.
Sell my casuals... Sell! -
Keeping Kun when he'll fall to 12.9 or lower is ridiculous.
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nice and cheap to get back then
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12.9 will almost certainly be the lowest he goes. The first drop will be fairly quick but once he's back at base price the price drops are much harder to achieve. With his level of ownership, the red flag and the number of dead teams with him in it make it virtually impossible for a drop lower than 12.9. 12.6 is hoping for too much.
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Disagree. He's owned by more than half of FPL.
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Exactly. Once he hits base price of 13M then he needs to shed 30% of ownership for the next drop with the red flag. That's a hell of a lot of sales - articulately as WCs don't count. I can see this happening once, sure. Twice at a stretch - but no chance of it happening 4 times. There won't be enough active players left to sell him.
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Where did you get 30% from?
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respond to this one please..I didn't hit notify.. 😐
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The guys at FISO/FPL Stats. According to them, 10% (ish) of ownership needs to be shed for a non-flagged player to drop, when they're red-flagged this is multiplied by 3.
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So let's say he's not flagged and he's at 50% for sake of simple math, which is true:
A) needs to drop to 40% to fall in price once (10% absolute drop, 50%-40%)
B) needs to drop to 45% to fall in price once (10% of 50% = 5%)
I'm assuming B?-
B excluding WCs.
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and that's standard for all players? no tiers depending on ownership level?
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Yes - B. If he has 2M owners he needs approx 200k non-WC transfers out to drop if not flagged, but the best part of 600k if red-flagged. Yellow is somewhere in between.
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you sure on this? (red and yellow flag bits)
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Pretty much in theory - but the figures may not be absolute as FPL Towers tend to tweak them slightly each season. There's a fuller explanation on the FISO site.
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yep, B
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also are there different tiers depending on ownership? like players who are owned 50% need more sales to drop once than players owned by 10%?
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It's the same percentage, but yes - a 50% owned player will need 5 times as many net transfers out than a 10% owned one.
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yeah obviously that works out like that, cool, thanks P..TIL! 😀
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does the FISO count only non-WC transfers?
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Where did you get the 30% figure from?
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Followed the thread below. Great stuff! Thanks for the insights.
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7.5% need to sell for the 2nd drop.
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how was the number conjured?
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It's probably 10% or even 15% that Pasqualinho mentioned.
Normally 10% selling = drop. Red flag means double or even triple sales needed.
If 50% ownership when back to 13.0 then needs to go below 40% at best for the next drop if not 35%.-
Is it 'drop 10%' absolutely or is it 'drop 10% of ownership'?
Because one means 50% to 40% whereas the latter means 50% to 45%.-
No flag would make 45%. Flag makes it a lot tougher.
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ok 10% of, cheers
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I thought the flag thing froze price falls for a few days? Or am I remembering this incorrectly.
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going straight from red to green resets the counter to 0, everything else is just about increasing/decreasing threshold
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Flag change from red to available = 7 or so days with no price changes.
It's more to protect player prices if they get a sudden change in flag so people who don't look at FPL have more time to notice.
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The conversation amongst the three of you should be an article unto itself. Really helpful posts.
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He's yellow now, because of his calf injury. Will he actually get a price freeze because he's changed status twice?
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price reset only happens when the player goes directly from red flag to green flag, getting a new flag color on just changes the transfer threshold for price changes
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I wouldn't keep but I still wouldn't WC to remove him since its such a short term ban.
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people aren't wildcarding just because of Aguero but because without Aguero you can revamp your team all-over and therefore make some otherwise sideways moves that are improvements
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Wouldn't say 12.6. 12.9 would even be a stretch IMO.
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Owned by 2 million managers, all who will look to sell at some point in the next 3 weeks once they see his flag. He didn't gain that ownership organically, he practically started with it at GW1.
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Don't get me wrong, I would love to see him sub 13.0. I just don't see him going below 12.9 even with his high ownership.
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He started at 42% ownership and is now 52% ownership. Could happen! 😉
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I hope you're right 😉
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I mean even getting him for 0.1m cheaper than I originally bought him is a win I guess haha
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No question about that!
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see above from Pasqualinho, TIL! 🙂
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I think 12.6 is a huge stretch.
Besides, if you were planning to keep Aguero, price drops wouldn't be an issue right? Because if you are keeping him for the long term his price falls now won't matter at all-
Exactly. The whole value argument is very weak IMO.
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The second part of Nick's post makes no sense.
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First sentence: I'm aware, see above.
Rest: Nonsense. You're saying you wouldn't rather have that extra 0.4m, plus whatever points scored in his absence, banked away? Team value will be crucial this season.-
Well, of course, the extra 0.1 or 0.2m could come in handy. But he doesn't magically come in and out of your team. You're using, at the very least, 2FT to get rid and buy him back again (probably 3 or 4 considering how some around these parts are shifting their funds), or potentially a WC this week or when he returns.
So to summarise, I'd much prefer A out of the two options:
A) Give up the opportunity to buy Kun back at 0.1 or .2 cheaper, hold him, and save between 2-4 transfers in the process
B) Using FTs/hits/WCs, get rid of Kun to save 0.2 max.
My final point is that as soon as his red flag is removed, he will be bought heavily. Assuming his price is less than his original price (13.0) then his threshold to rise will be much less, and we will see his price skyrocket once again. So in GW6, if you go down route B, you will find you may have to rush to get him back before he goes up in price. Personally, I'm not the biggest fan of making rushed transfers when price is an issue so that's certainly not a scenario I'd like to be in.-
Two things in response to that then:
A) your theory above ignores the possibility/likelihood of getting far more points out of spreading that 13m around your team in the meantime
B) he's at 13.1m with 50%+ ownership. if he only drops to 12.8m/12.9m despite MASS sales and then skyrockets after the 7 days pass (or maybe even immediately if he doesn't go from red to green) then you're potentially gaining more out of his NTIs than those who started with him-
Well yes, but since we're so early in the season there's only a few big hitters that I think we can be sure will clock big scores: Kun, Ibra and Hazard. My point is, is that there's no guarantee that Sanchez will outscore Ozil, Payet will outscore Antonio,
So yes the extra few mill of funds would be handy to generate elsewhere, but it would ultimately make it harder to get Kun back, so I'd be more than happy to settle with an Antonio over a Payet or an Ozil over a Sanchez.
Remember, this is only two weeks we are talking about (assuming you get Kun back straight away), so it's difficult to gauge who will score well over such a short period, so I'm more than happy to take my chances with someone slightly cheaper if it'll allow me to get Aguero back easier. Further, if you don't plan on WCing to get Kun back, then every upgrade you make with the funds he frees up means an extra transfer/hit down the track to downgrade players to free up the funds to get Kun back.-
your last sentence is a fair point, but this game all comes down to the gambles 😉
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Do I need to WC this lot or just take a -4 hit ?
Foster Jaku
Valencia VVD Stones Friend Amat
Hazard Barkley Lamela Redmond Capoue
Kun Ibra Gray
2FT & 0.9 ITB
A) VVD, Aguero, Gray > Williams, Lukaku, Benteke (-4) *bring in Sanchez/Ozil on the next GW*
B) VVD, Aguero, Redmond/Lamela > Williams, Sanchez/Ozil, Lukaku (-4) *relies on Gray not being banned*
For A & B I would likely WC to bring Aguero back in.
C) WC -
Well considering today's news I'm considering:
Kun > lukaku
Mahrez > Sanchez
Townsend > sterling
It's for a minus 4 and I'm keeping 1m in the bank. Planning on WC kun back in aswell. This is the current team.
Foster jaku
Stones shaw McCauley pieters parades
Mahrez haz Townsend Redmond capoue
Kun ibra gray-
Gray ban too. -8 incomming
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I'll get rid next week if he does get banned for more than 1 game. All those incoming names look too tempting
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Which is better combo:
A) Capoue, Ozil, Benteke
B) Redmond, Sanchez, Diomande-
A
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A
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Anyone planning on just benching Aguero and playing 3-5-2? Saves 2 transfers if not on a WC
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a few have mentioned it way too much money on the bench
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Depends on your strikers and fifth mid.
I wouldn't want to do it with Gray and Fletcher, for example.-
I've Rondon, happy to give him 3 more games before I assess further
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13 mil on the bench for two GWs when his price will drop and theres other premium players around. Highly advise to see but it's your team.
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Ya I understand, don't fancy another -4 though, or WC.
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who's your 5th Mid , Capoue?
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Ya who I just took a -4 to bring in to tidy upgrade my bench and hopefully make some £. Seems like I should play him now!
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I wouldnt be keen on depending on Capoue to bridge an Agueroless gap of two weeks.
Even with a couple of -4's your probably better off trading in for a mid range FW and a Sterling/Ozil/Sanchez/Hazard etc.
It will likely make you more £ too.
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Are these good changers ?
Foster + lloris when he is back fit
Shaw + baines
Redmond + chadli
Aguero + Costa-
No
Yes
No
Yes -
Chadli?!
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Chadli has potential for WBA but I prefer Redmond for now.
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Does he even play?
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for sure he'll play.
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Fair enough. Haven't seen any of his playing this year.
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He may be down the pecking order at TOT but he'll be cream of the crop at WBA
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He just moved to a WBA side devoid of creativity and I think it broke their previous transfer record, so yes.
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Best Striker to get If You Have IBRA & GRAY ???
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Lukaku or Costa.
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Lukaku & Benteke for me
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Thx Guys
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How does this WC look?
Foster, Pickford
Valencia, Williams, Evans, Friend, Amat
Hazard, Ozil, Sterling, Lamela, Capoue
Ibrahimovic, Costa, Negredo
When Aguero is back: Ibrahimovic & Costa -> Aguero & Rooney -
Foster, Heaton
Valencia, Souare, Stones, Friend, Amat.
Redmond, Hazard, Barkley, Lamela, Hojbjerg
Aguero, Benteke, Ibra.
1 ft, 0.5m in bank.
2 questions.
1. What would u do here?
2. If selling Aguero which I almost certainly will.. do I lose any value if I wait for a while or do I need to rush sell? Got him @13.0m
Thanks a lot!-
1. Aguero out is your only real concern.
2. You won't lose any selling value if he drops.
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Gonna transfer Kun out for -4 and keep the spare funds ITB. Looking at fixtures i'd go with Lukaku but he's bound to troll me. Looking like Costa at the moment because i don't like Vardy's fixtures.
What you lot doing?-
debating
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Id throw tekkers into that mix too.
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Probably Lukaku but Costa and Rooney also have some appeal.
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I still have Barkley in my team so i'm thinking double Everton attack might be a step too far. Amazing fixtures for Lukaku but he's in the midst of a massive drout.
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Tekkers and Sanchez
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High risk that.
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Really? I think not spreading the Aguero cash is more risky over the next few weeks.
As long as you can get him back in quite easily it's a no brainer for me, especially with Sanchez and Benteke fixtures-
Not really. It's only going to be two GWks (as the cup gain counts towards the ban) and the replacement striker could easily get the same amount of points in that time.
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Also I have Ozil already. Got Haz, Ibra.. To be honest i'm more concerned about my defence being crook or having 2 point fixtures. I could really do with getting Williams in but aint gonna take an 8 point hit for that.
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So hard to pick cs so far this season, I don't see the value in too many premium def just yet
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I'm not convinced by any of the alternative premium fwds, none of them in form except Costa but i don't like his lack of baps and potential for a red card.
I'd rather fill up on premium mids until Kun is back so that's what I'm doing.
Hopefully my decent OR after the first few weeks won't suffer
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Slow risers today, guess it's existed with the intern international break but I was hoping for more...
Come on everyone, BUY BUY BUY, SELL SELL SELL 🙂-
Anyone tempted by Chadli?
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3 point magnet at Brom.
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Maybe when Kun is back and he's had time to settle in.
I'm happy with my premium mids until then
Sanchez, Hazard, Mane, Sterling-
Did you WC for that? Very desirable Gwk 4 midfield.
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yep me neither really
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expected*
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With Aguero out should I take a 4 point hit to get Costa?
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Yes
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The 100 million dollar (US) question. Do you have any other Chelsea players?
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I have Hazard
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Chels look impressive so far - could be worth doubling up on.
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Lukaku I think
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Don't like his recent form
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Anyone considering Masuaku?
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who?
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Great fixtures and gets forward, I am definitely considering him
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no thanks, ive just eaten
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WC team:
Foster (Jaku)
Shaw Valencia Terry Holgate Amat
Hazard Lamela Sanchez Sterling (Capoue)
Ibra Lukaku Stuani
Should I just go 442 and get diomande ? Was thinking of upgrading Holgate to Williams for a more long term Everton cover.....
Any input welcomed-
Double Utd is unnecessary - especially with City next. Holgate will make way for Coleman shortly but Williams over Terry.
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a) benteke Antonio Williams
Or
B) negredo Lamela Baines?-
Anyone??
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A
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I fancy B. V tough one though.
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Who's with me in believing Kane will be back on form after the international? Great fixtures, pens etc.
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only when dembele is back
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Kane's mum
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Don't think so mate
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He didn't score until Sept 28th last year. I'm sticking with him not scoring for a little while yet.
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Looking like Deulo + Kun -> Özil + Lukaku
Chumps! -
When will the first aguero drop happen ?
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could be a few days at this current rate. However , once the ban is confirmed those share prices are going to drop like a stone.
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RMWCT assuming Kun ban
Foster Jaku
Valencia Baines Dann Collins McAuley
Hazard Ozil Capoue Lamela/Antonio (depending on ban) Puncheon
Ibra Vardy/Costa Diamonde
Enough ITB to straight swap Vardy/Costa for Aguero when back -
What do u guys think of that for a -4. I really need your opinion.
Out: townsend, augero, gray
In: sanchez, lukaku, iheanaco-
Would prefer Banteke to Iheanacho if you can afford
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Yeah i think its possible
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Firmino or Coutinho?
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firm
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Firmly on Coutinho.
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firmino for me
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Mane if you can afford it, firm if not
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What position is Antonio likely to play for west ham after this weekend?
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Hopefully RM.
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Has everyone lost faith in Redmond? I see most people taking him out on WC, but he's got great stats!
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i could see him blanking in 3 out of next 4
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They're all upgrading their midfield since they have cash.
They might well regret it once Aguero is back and they don't know how to get him back in. -
The Kun money means we can do better.
Redmond is still a nice option though.-
This ^^
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