Streaky Sanchez and Consistent Ozil Investigated

As we consider how to allocate Sergio Agüero’s funds amongst our teams, a common question seems to be around who to pick out of Arsenal midfielders Mesut Özil and Alexis Sánchez. This Hot Topic from Carpe Diem came to the conclusion that Sanchez is the streakier player, and made the better short term choice. I decided to look back over the data for both players from 2014-15 and 2015-16 to see if I felt the same. My instinct going in is that Ozil’s points would closely correlate with Sanchez’s, and therefore getting Ozil would allow Fantasy managers to get similar scores (probably slightly lower on average) without having to find as much cash to do so.

Season 2014-15

Sanchez – 16 goals, eight assists, 29 bonus from 2944 minutes (Interestingly my own data only has 2854 minutes. Obviously something has gone wrong)

Ozil – four goals, six assists, 13 bonus from 1857 minutes (again, my data has 1777 minutes. 90 missing minutes for some reason… but the goals etc match up, so shouldn’t impact much).

The first thing to notice is that Ozil played only 63% as much as Sanchez, so will be hard to get a perfect analysis. But we’ll see what we can do.

Sanchez analysis

1. His 16 goals came in 12 scoring games. Two clumps (one goal in each of GW3 and GW4, and six goals between GW8-GW11) in support of Carpe Diem’s Streaky Sanchez.
2. Of his eight assists, only two (in GW1, and GW15) came as the only point scoring action. They tend to just be additional explosive points.

His scores overall (only counting Goals/Assists/Bonus) look like this:

3, 0, 8, 5, #, #, 0, 11, 13, 13, 8, 0, 0, 6, 3, 7, 0, 10, 0, 0, 16, 0, #, #, 0, 0, 0, 6, 0, 0, 11, 0, 0, 13, 0, #, 0, 0

(# indicates played fewer than 45 minutes without getting any points of interest)

Clearly there is some indication here of ‘Streaky Sanchez’, but his big scores of 16, 11 and 13 in Gameweeks 21, 31 and 34 respectively, came streakless.

Ozil analysis

1. Four goals, in four games.
2. Six assists, in four games.
3. A big patch of not playing in the middle, right around the time that Sanchez was hitting his big streaks. So that lends no support in favour of my theory that Ozil plays a big role in Sanchez’s explosivity.
4. One hot streak between Gameweeks 23 and 27, which also connected to a Sanchez missing some time on the field.

His scores overall (only counting Goals/Assists/Bonus) look like this:

#, 0, 0, 0, 10, 2, 0, #, #, #, #, #, #, #, #, #, #, #, #, #, #, 10, 6, 9, 0, 7, 0, 0, #, 7, 0, 0, 0, 0, #, 0, 0

Putting those two chunks together looks like this:

Sanchez: 3, 0, 8, 5,  #,  #, 0, 11, 13, 13, 8, 0, 0, 6, 3, 7, 0, 10, 0, 0, 16,  0,  #, #, 0, 0, 0, 6, 0, 0, 11, 0, 0, 13, 0, #, 0, 0

Ozil:         #, 0, 0, 0, 10, 2, 0,  #,  #,   #,  #, #, #, #, #, #, #,  #,  #, #,  #,  #,  10, 6, 9, 0, 7, 0,  0, #, 7,  0, 0, 0, 0, #, 0, 0

Long story short – can’t see much correlation from 2014-15! There is literally only one game (Gameweek 31, at home to Liverpool) when they both picked up points. Sanchez scored more points, at a higher rate (4.07 points per 90 minutes, compared to Ozil’s 2.47). Will my theory hold up any better for last year’s data?

Season 2015-16

Sanchez – 13 goals, five assists, 17 bonus from 2436 minutes (My data matches up perfectly this time with the FPL history)

Ozil – six goals, 19 assists, 30 bonus from 3036 minutes (again, my data is fine. Thank god)

Sanchez analysis

1. His 13 goals came in nine scoring games. Two clumps (six goals between GW7-GW9, and six goals between Gameweeks 29-34) in support of Carpe Diem’s Streaky Sanchez analysis.
2. This time, of his five assists, four came as the only point scoring action. Two during his late season streak (Gameweeks 28 and 30) and two standing alone (Gameweeks 2 and 14).

His scores overall (only counting Goals/Assists/Bonus) look like this:

#, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 18, 13, 7, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, #, #, #, #, #, #, #, #, #, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 5, 3, 11, 5, 7, 13, 0, 0, 6, 0

Ozil analysis

1. six goals, in 6 separate games.
2. A whopping 19 assists, across 16 games in total. Of these 15 came between the 5th and 19th game, as he hit a rich vein of points.

His scores overall (only counting Goals/Assists/Bonus) look like this:

0, 5, 0, #, 3, 0, 3, 10, 9, 3, 7, 6, 6, 8, 4, 3, 8, 0, 11, 0, 0, #, 0, 0, 7, 6, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 0, 0, 0, 0, #, 3

Putting those two chunks together looks like this:

Sanchez: #, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 18, 13, 7, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, #, #, #, #,  #, #, #,  #, #, 0, 0, 0,  0, 3, 5, 3, 11, 5, 7, 13, 0, 0, 6, 0

Ozil:        0, 5, 0, #, 3, 0,   3, 10, 9, 3, 7, 6, 6, 8, 4, 3, 8, 0, 11, 0, 0, #, 0, 0, 7, 6, 10, 0, 0, 0,  0, 5, 0,   0, 0, 0, #, 3

So, there was some more correlation, particularly with Sanchez’s initial hot streak. While Sanchez scored six goals across three games, Ozil got one goal and four assists. But in Sanchez’s second streak, Ozil got no assists, and just one goal. Similarly, during Ozil’s hot streak, it was not Sanchez that was profiting from Ozil’s assists. So it seems my anticipated correlation is nowhere to be seen, and Carpe Diem’s Streaky Sanchez theory is probably about right. He didn’t show the evidence from Ozil, which is what prompted me to take another look – but it doesn’t seem to change the conclusion.

Conclusion

Although Ozil had a phenomenal season last year, and outscored Sanchez – it seems primarily due to Sanchez’s long layoff in the middle of the season. Sanchez had 3.46 points per 90 minutes, compared to Ozil’s 3.38. When Sanchez is on the pitch, looking at the data above, one could make the argument that it is to the detriment of the German. The majority of Ozil’s highest scores come when Sanchez is absent. Certainly, my Aguero money will be being used to fund a Sanchez purchase, at least for the short term.