Paddy Says
2 January 2017 983 comments
davidwardale davidwardale
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It’s time once again to take a seat in Paddy’s horse-drawn carriage and be whisked away on a magical tour to marvel at Anytime Goalscorer and Clean Sheets odds.

We stop, as ever, to first gaze upon the wonder of the enhanced offers available for new customers.

Football’s not exactly packed full of sure things – it’s why we love it so – but some things are definitely more sure than others, and one of those is Manchester City beating Burnley at the Etihad.

Paddy is offering new customers 3-1 on Pep Guardiola’s boys managing to see off a team with just the one away point to their name this season.

Or you can get 5-1 on Liverpool to beat Sunderland. The Black Cats have won three of their last four home matches, but they haven’t been anyone from the top half of the table, home or away, all season.

If you fancy your odds that little bit longer, there’s 6-1 on Manchester United to beat West Ham and the same price available on Arsenal to win at Bournemouth.

Slightly further out , we’ve got Leicester to beat Middlesbrough at 8-1. The Foxes looked much more like their old, title-winning, selves last time out, but they’ve not won on the road all season.

And if it’s an Acca you fancy, you can get 16-1 on Everton, Man City, Man United and Liverpool all to win. The Toffees are at home to a Southampton side who will have to make do without their previously ever-present defensive rock, Virgil van Dijk, for the first time in the campaign.

Be sure to check the terms and conditions on all those offers and, of course, we should state that all these specials are only available to those aged 18 or over. And if you’re going to wager, always gamble responsibly.

ANYTIME GOALSCORER ODDS – GAMEWEEK 20

Player Team Odds
Aguero MCI 1.33
Sturridge LIV 1.80
Ibrahimovic MUN 1.83
Benteke CRY 1.83
Walcott ARS 2.00
Sanchez ARS 2.00
Giroud ARS 2.00
Costa CHE 2.10
Nolito MCI 2.10
De Bruyne MCI 2.10
Firmino LIV 2.10
Origi LIV 2.10
Mane LIV 2.10
Lukaku EVE 2.20
Kane TOT 2.29
Toure MCI 2.29
Rondon WBA 2.40

Sergio Aguero is back at the top of the Anytime Goalscorer pile and will be a major captaincy draw for many Fantasy Premier League managers.

But he’s still not proving to be box office gold, with two players well ahead of him in the race to be the most popular transfer target of the Gameweek. The price tag, the form of rival forwards and City’s patchy set of immediate fixtures no doubt providing the obstacles.

Burnley at home shouldn’t get much easier, hence his 1.33 price, but then there’s trips to Everton and an in-form West Ham as well as a visit from Spurs before January is done.

The Clarets are so bad on the road – one point from their one clean sheet – that it seems almost criminal not to have a punt on at least one City player finding the net. Maybe Kevin De Bruyne, who is at 2.10, will end his 14-match wait for a league goal.

Paddy again hedges his bets by offering low odds on Daniel Sturridge (1.80), but it was Roberto Firmino who played as Liverpool’s striker against Man City and his 2.10 price to score at Sunderland looks a far safer bet.

Only three teams have conceded more goals than the 15 the Black Cats have shipped at home, while Liverpool are joint-second with 20 away goals.

The Gameweek’s most signed player, Adam Lallana, is worth a look, therefore. He’s 3.40 to find the net at the Stadium of Light.

Salomon Rondon (2.4o) was benched in the win at Southampton. The smart money is on him gaining a recall when the Baggies’ teamsheet is revealed for the home match with Hull City.

Also in the West Brom camp, Matt Phillips, second only to Lallana for transfers-in this Gameweek, is at 3.75 to score in back-to-back matches.

Harry Kane (2.29) reminded us all of his prowess in the New Year’s Day lesson handed out to a woeful Watford. But Chelsea are a very, very different prospect and both he and Diego Costa (2.10) could struggle to make an impact in what promises/threatens to be a tight encounter of few chances.

The 3.50 available on Dele Alli making it six goals in four matches is probably going to be as good as it gets.

He’s certainly an increasingly popular transfer pick this Gameweek – into the top five and overhauling Costa for new managers.

CLEAN SHEET ODDS – GAMEWEEK 20

Team Odds
Manchester City 1.72
Liverpool 1.90
Manchester United 2.20
Stoke City 2.25
West Bromwich Albion 2.29
Crystal Palace 2.40
Everton 2.62
Middlesbrough 2.62
Arsenal 2.75
Leicester City 2.87

The combined lowest odds on a clean sheet this Gameweek can be found in the Middlesbrough v Leicester fixture.

It’s a match-up unlikely to send many tingles down the spine – Boro are mixing it with the big boys when it comes to their defensive record at home while the Foxes, with just eight goals, have toiled on the road.

Boro are at 2.62, and Leicester 2.87, to keep goals out of the equation. Aitor Karanka’s men look the more likely of the two to actually do it, as the odds suggest.

Man City are the Gameweek’s runaway favourites to record a shut-out, even with their frankly awful defensive record this season.

The reason? Burnley’s truly appalling two goals scored in eight away matches. Swansea City have had more managers than that and we’re halfway through the season now.

Time for the 16.8% of managers still on John Stones to cash in, you suspect. Their loyalty deserves reward, but will Pep even pick him? Either way, it’s little wonder that a defence with only one more clean sheet than multi-managed Swansea are priced so low to add to their ‘haul’ against Burnley.

Liverpool, meanwhile, have now kept three clean sheets in their last four fixtures and a trip to Sunderland could garner another.

Two Reds defenders (Nathanial Clyne and Dejan Lovren) are among the top 30 players targeted this Gameweek, and Sunderland’s second-worst total of 17 goals scored this season tends to back up the wisdom of buying into the Liverpool back four.

A price of 1.90 is available for the Scousers to keep Sunderland’s attack all gums and no teeth.

983 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. The Hindu Monkey
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Guy in my mini league has a value of 108.4!!??

    Can anyone beat that. Not even doing that well. Mainly because he's taken about 100 points in hits...

    https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/team/700785/event/19

    1. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      I think he is doing alright - with that TV can have Aguero, Sanchez, Ibra, Costa, Alli, Coutinho, Phillips and a good defence.

    2. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      not wort it but very impressed

  2. hillbillypete
    • 17 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Aguero ruins teams!

    A)Heaton
    Hen
    Brunt
    Alonso
    Bellerin
    Snodgrass
    Costa
    Carrol

    or

    B)Court
    Jak
    Jones
    Friend
    Robertson
    Fabregas
    Aguero
    Gray

    ???

    1. MTPockets
      9 years, 7 months ago

      So different that very hard to compare.

    2. VS10_
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Or you could just downgrade one player instead of 10 players and it wouldn't look that bad.

  3. Rinseboy
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Quick question who would you bench from

    Kelly Nyom Barragan Jones?

    Thanks all!

    1. hillbillypete
      • 17 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Nyom

    2. The Hindu Monkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Kelly

    3. Thomas Magnum
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Barragan

    4. MTPockets
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Kelly

    5. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      check CS odds

  4. micsway
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Haz to Sanchez for a hit?

    1. The Hindu Monkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Nope. Loves playing spurs

      1. Kiwivillan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        3 goals last 6?

    2. Thomas Magnum
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      If you have Costa maybe yes

  5. Thomas Magnum
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    What do I do with this?
    Heaton Pickford
    Nyom Alonso McAuley VVD Lenihan
    Hazard Sanchez Firmino Snoddy De Roon
    Kane Defoe Benteke
    0.1ITB 2FT

    1. The Hindu Monkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Nyom for chambers?

      Or Defoe for Rondon.

      1. Thomas Magnum
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Is this wek the right week to sell Nyom though?

        1. Doar1986
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          Why are People selling

          1. Ferris Bueller
            • 14 Years
            9 years, 7 months ago

            Still not confirmed whether he's off to AFCON

        2. Ibracadabra9
          • 9 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          Crazy to sell Nyom with his fixtures IMO

        3. Jam0sh
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          You know it isn't

    2. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Defoe -> Rondon
      or
      if you're Kun man than make a route to get him

      1. Thomas Magnum
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        ?

        1. Lone Wolf FPL
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          get Kun

  6. FCSB
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Who to bench...

    1. de Roon (LEI)
    2. Jones (whu)
    3. Cedric (eve)
    4. Alonso (tot)

    Thanks

    1. The Hindu Monkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      De Roon

    2. Thomas Magnum
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      2

    3. MTPockets
      9 years, 7 months ago

      cedric

  7. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    decisions decisions decisions...0FT and 1.7m itb

    Grant
    Valencia • McAuley • Holebas ---- Smith (dropped) naylor (shyte)
    Sanchez • Hazard • Philips • Pogba --- Fletcher
    Kane • Ibra • Carroll

    A) Gtg
    B) Carroll ➡ Benteke (-4)
    C) Carroll ➡ Giroud (-4)
    D) Smith/Naylor ➡ Baines (-4)....would like a playing/stronger bench with potential rotations...effectively a 2 point hit if one of my players gets rested

    1. Thomas Magnum
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Save G2G

      1. UnitednationsXI
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        hmmm really?

        really dont like carroll (mun, CPL, mid, MCI) ..perhaps its coz i am utd fan :-/

        benteke has (SWA, whm, EVE, bou)

  8. NachoMan
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Am I good to go guys?

    Grant (Foster)

    Brunt, Alonso, Morgan (Amat, VVD)

    Sanchez, Lallana, Phillips, Eriksen (Capoue)

    Ibra, Carroll, Kun

    Anything worth a hit? Already taken one. 0.2ITB.

    1. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Stick for now. Consider Morgan and Carroll transfers soon though.

    2. Thomas Magnum
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      No

  9. Scotty B
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Heaton
    Clyne Evans Baines Pieters
    Lallana Sanchez Hazard
    Defoe Kane Ibrahimovic

    Pickford Fletcher Capoue Amat

    0.4 ITB & 1 FT

    Which option is better?
    A Pickford > Valdes
    B Defoe > Benteke
    C Hazard/Defoe > Phillips/Aguero for a -4
    D Save FT

    1. Thomas Magnum
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      D

      1. Scotty B
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers. Can I ask why?

    2. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      C, no doubt

  10. Eden Hazardous
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Aguero 1.33 to score 😮

    1. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Nothing certain - although I expect him to get at least a brace today (non-owner)

    2. Kevin Twine
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Disgraceful price. 1.71 with the exchange.

  11. What am I doing?
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Quick question, is Friend nailed?? Thanks

    1. Thomas Magnum
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Don't think so

    2. Ferris Bueller
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Will be after today...

  12. Miguel Sanchez
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Morning:

    Carroll (MAN) to Benteke (SWA) worth a -4?

    1. Jimbo-Jones
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Palace fixtures are good long term.
      Only worth the -4 if you're planning on keeping him for a few weeks at least. (I have him).

  13. Pack The Ripper
    • 17 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Foster
    Alonso, Clyne, Pieters
    Sanchez, Hazard, Phillips, De Roon
    Ibra, Costa, Kane

    Good to go or changes needed?

    1. MTPockets
      9 years, 7 months ago

      gtg

  14. Excused By Bemused Confusio…
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Rotation should be heavy for these next games, and completely unpredictable. My advice is definitely don't take hits, maybe even don't use your ft. Anything could happen this round.

    p.s. no pressers?

    1. A.T
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      No pressers.

      1. Excused By Bemused Confusio…
        • 16 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks mate. Good luck. Bracing for chaos.

  15. royals forever
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 17 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Who to give the armband to out of

    Ibrahimovic or Sanchez

    Any ideas would be welcomed

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Sanchez purely based on his away form and that West Ham seem tighter lately

      1. ★Kuntheman★
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Agree on that West Ham point

    2. Jimbo-Jones
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Zlatan.
      West Ham defence is pretty shambolic.

  16. Jimbo-Jones
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    8 red arrows in a row has taken me from 17k to 264k. Total nightmare. Any help appreciated.

    1FT, 2.3ITB

    Heaton
    Walker, Alonso, Cedric
    Haz Sanchez(c) Siggy Eriksen Phillips
    Costa Benteke

    Pick, Anichebe, Amat, 3.9

    1. Save
    2. Cedric -> Brunt
    3. Siggy & Benteke -> Cabaye & Ibra (-4)
    4. Other?

    1. MTPockets
      9 years, 7 months ago

      2 (or a cheaper wba defender if could use the £ elsewhere).

  17. FCSB
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Eriksen & Anichebe >> Phillips & Benteke (-4)

    Yes or No???

    Thanks

  18. drughi
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Heaton
    Alonso/ Rose/ Pieters
    Hazard/ Payet/ Lallana(C)/ Siggy
    Ibra/ Kane/ Origi

    Am I gtg ? Saving my transfer this week. Anything you would change ?

    1. drughi
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      yes

  19. theroadrunner
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    how likely is it that aguero will blank????? repllyyyyyy

    1. Excused By Bemused Confusio…
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      😆 😆

    2. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      less than 20% IMO.

      1. theroadrunner
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        top of my mini league by 70 points but team slowly starting to perform worse than the others. I really need Aguero to be the differential

    3. Aubaaaaa
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      According to paddy, his odds of scoring is 1.33.

  20. SPECIALMOU
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Sorry for the question guys, but why Lallana and Phillips didn't rise last night?

    1. william prunier
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Not enough buyers as a guess

    2. drughi
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Sometimes you are not in the mood

      1. ★Kuntheman★
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Excuses 🙂

    3. Kiwivillan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      They will tomo. Not exact science

      1. SPECIALMOU
        • 16 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah thanks 🙂

        I probably trust too much in fplstatistics.

    4. Lone Wolf FPL
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      strange as I was sure that will happen

    5. Guru Mediation
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Wildcard transfers don't count towards rises. My guess would be that many of the transfers in were wc therefore

    6. Reuser
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Wildcards don't count towards price changes - therefore at this time of year (lots of wildcards) it is harder to predict rises/falls.

      Would still anticipate them rising tonight once all the pre-deadline transfers are made.

  21. twoplustwo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Bentekkers is frustrating to watch. Worth it for the next few? Looked so sluggish last GW.

    1. Ferris Bueller
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Not for me based on current form - confidence player with none

    2. Whats the Huth
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      He may score two today. Then confident would be high

      1. fedolefan
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        He's shot confidence wise. Needs a brace to return to normal levels. Wouldn't be buying him yet but Swansea is a great match to restore confidence.

  22. KP02
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Did Siggy to Phillips! Have one free transfer left - Eriksen to lallana?

  23. ★Kuntheman★
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Am I nuts if I consider dropping Eriksen and Ibrahimovic for Alli and Aguero for a -8 just for an Aguero(c) this week? Chasing in my league and no one has him

    1. A.T
      • 16 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Mad

      1. ★Kuntheman★
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        It's almost painful to go into Aguero(H) vs Burnley as a City fan without Aguero(c)

        1. GREENDREAMS11
          • 16 Years
          9 years, 7 months ago

          I agree, taking out Ibra and Siggy today for Aguero and Phillips for a -4. Seems to make plenty sense for me,

    2. Kiwivillan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Yes. Eriksen Alli is sideways and Alli scored most goals away last season. Ibra can score goal and then Kun probably needs hat trick to break even

      1. Kiwivillan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Yes you are nuts

  24. And nothing else Mata'…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Best move for this GW:
    A) Haz + Caroll --> Lallana + Giroud
    B) Eriksen + Caroll --> Lallana + Benteke
    C) Eriksen + Ibra --> Lallana + Kun
    D) Something else

    Current team :

    Foster
    Lovren, Cedric, Rose
    Hazard, Sanchez, Phillips, Allen, Eriksen
    Costa, Ibrahimovic
    ======
    Heaton, Caroll, Holebas, Kone

    Thank you

  25. Doar1986
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Surely will be quite a bit of rotation i some teams today but is anyone worried about Ibra?
    Surely doesn't need to play today?
    Time for a rest ?

    1. And nothing else Mata'…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Im worrying now 🙁

    2. diesel001
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Ibra won't be rested.

    3. Speédy
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      phillips,ibra,sanchez the three big names imo

      1. Doar1986
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        That may be rested ?

    4. Ferris Bueller
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      Anyone can be rested - worry about the things you can affect

  26. Speédy
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    grant
    alonso friend brunt
    sanchez hazard siggy phillips
    ibra tekkers rondon
    pick eriksen cedric ake
    gtg??? or do siggy+tekkers/rondon - stanislas +kane/costa

    1. We ain't got no histor…
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      gtg, u may get lucky with siggy as he plays palace

  27. We ain't got no histor…
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Hi Peeps

    Managing a friend's team, need some suggestions

    Whom to play and captain:

    Pickford DeGea
    Reid Cedric McAuley Jones Alonso
    Lallana Mane Alli Antonio Philips
    Negredo Costa Ibra

    Thanks Already

    1. Speédy
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      bench pick reid cedric antonio

      1. We ain't got no histor…
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks SpeedyBoyz, captain Mane?

  28. FCSB
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Bottomed...

    Eriksen & Anichebe >> Phillips & Benteke (-4)

    Yes or No???

    Thanks

  29. Burger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    Which one to play out of:

    A. Nyom (HUL)

    OR

    B. Pieters (WAT)

    ?

  30. marcus2704
    • 16 Years
    9 years, 7 months ago

    I have changed my WC team to have 2 playing keepers, but can anyone confirm if Hennessey is likely to continue to be Palace number 1?

    Grant - Hennessey

    Pieters - Ake - Chambers - Evans - 3.9

    Sanchez - Pogba - Alli - Phillips - Allen

    Aguero - Costa - Ibra

    1. ★Kuntheman★
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      That defense is not worth that frontline

    2. :
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 7 months ago

      I'd downgrade Allen to a 4.4 and invest the money elsewhere. You're never going to leave one of your front three on the bench.