What The Fixtures & Form Say – Gameweek 21 Captaincy

This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.

Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.

Before I take a look at Gameweek 21’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.

REFINING THE ODDS

For this method, I am going to take the top six most popular captaincy options and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.

I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away PPG but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of two players are the same.

The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.

DEFINING SUCCESS

What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFS Captain poll. A monthly average will also be worked out to find the cumulative points to see if this method or the FFS Captain polls are proving to be more successful. Many many thanks to FFS poster Balance who worked out the results from GW8 till GW17:

YMA Picks / FFS Capt Poll (no1):

Gw 8 – Costa (9) / Sanchez (5)
Gw 9 – Lukaku (5) / Sanchez (3)
Gw 10 – Sanchez (13) / Sanchez (13)
Gw 11 – Hazard (19) / Aguero (6)
Gw 12 – Lukaku (2) / Aguero (2)
Gw 13 – Firmino (3) / Aguero (6)
Gw 14 – Kane (13) / Kane (13)
Gw 15 – Mane (8) / Sanchez (5)
Gw 16 – Kane (2) / Kane (2)
Gw 17 – Eriksen (2) / Kane (2)

Total YMA: 76 / Total FFS Capt Poll: 57
Avg YMA: 7.6 / Avg FFS Capt Poll: 5.7

On a weekly basis, success will be defined as:

• Explosive = 10+ points
• Success = 7-9 points
• Average = 4-6 points
• Fail = no attacking returns

I will keep a running tab of these and present them on the weekly article. With all that in mind, let’s take at Gameweek 21s results.

Form

*It’s worth nothing that Sergio Aguero’s form table is misleading as the stats available are for the last two games only due to suspension. When factoring his games before this, he still finished last in the table with a PPG of 5.

Fixture

Results

What happens when two options end up on the same score?

Goals conceded in last four opponents’ home or away fixtures + goals scored in players last four home or away games according to the gameweek fixture.

Clean Sheet Potential

The Best Captain Is…

Taking into account form and fixtures, Olivier Giroud is the most likely to deliver attacking returns, according to this method.

The Arsenal forwards’ upturn in recent form, places him third on the list after scoring three times and laying on two assists over his last four Gameweeks.  The fixture table certainly suggests that it’s the right time to play Swansea. The Welsh outfit have conceded 11 goals in the last four Gameweeks and the same number of big chances over the same time period.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic offers this weeks’ form vs. fixture dilemma for FPL managers. His 10 PPG sits him second in the form table, with four goals and three assists in the last four Gameweeks.

However, the big Swede faces a Liverpool side that has tightened up recently. The Reds have only conceded three goals, three big chances and an impressively low 14 goal attempts in the last four Gameweeks.

Dele Alli just misses out on the top spot due to the article’s method of differentiating the two options, yet remains a very strong option this week.

The Spurs man faces a West Brom side that has conceded 35 goal attempts in the box in the last four Gameweeks. He also has the highest total PPG out of anyone in the top six of the FFS Captain poll. Certainly one to consider for the armband this week.