TOP 5 Career Hall of Fame Analysis – Gameweek 25

Gameweek 25 provided green arrows all round for our Top Five in the career Hall of Fame. It also saw a return to top spot in the rolling Live Hall of Fame for Ville Ronka in his tussle with Jay Egersdorff as he aims to remain the number one Fantasy Football manager. The pair are hotly pursued by Peter Kouwenberg who reaches a season-high FPL rank of 6,126. Peter is now only 40 points off  the top 1,000, a ranking he achieved at the end of the previous two campaigns.

The Top Five, and Jay for that matter, all avoided the Gabriel Jesus bandwagon and subsequent disappointment of seeing him hobble off the pitch against Bournemouth.

Instead, their transfers once again focused on players with guaranteed matches in Gameweeks 26 and 28. Both Peter and Steve Poulsom, who appear on Fantasy Football Scout as My Pretty Pony and Diggers respectively, were kind enough to give us insights into their thinking ahead of the Gameweek 25 deadline in last week’s comments section. Their recommendation of Swansea’s Gylfi Sigurdsson returned immediate points with an assist and clean sheet. The Icelandic international also looks a good bet to prosper over the coming weeks.

For this article, which examines in detail this elite group of managers’ latest moves and strategies, I have also deployed Fusen’s FPL Statistico tool to gain an extra insight into their thinking.

Before we look at their teams in more detail, here’s why they are the best FPL managers:

POINTS, RANK, VALUE

*from Gameweek 6 onwards

Only David qualified for the cup, and he went out in Gameweek 19.

They all still have their wildcards and the only chip that has been played is AOA.

It was good to see both second-placed Marlen Rattiner and fifth-placed David Meechan get back on track after their recent FPL slumps. Marlen recovering from a season-low rank of 89,663 last week to climb to 81,048. He remains the only one of our elite managers to have been in the top 100K all season. David Meechan last dropped out of the top 100K way back in Gameweek 5.

The form managers over the past few weeks have been Peter and Steve, and both continued their impressive surges up the ranks.

Peter made it six green arrows in a row rising from 50,871 in Gameweek 19 to his present high of 6,126. Steve with seven green arrows since Gameweek 18 has moved up 693,977 places to his current rank of 151,934.

It is perhaps no coincidence that Peter and Steve, after relatively up and down seasons, have gained the biggest squad values out of the Top Five. The pair have made the most transfers, which has given them the chance to freshen up their squads when they’ve slipped down the rankings.  Whereas Marlen’s impressively consistent season has resulted in him currently having the lowest squad value in the Top Five. Could it be that a slow start in FPL, if it leads to a high squad value, is in fact a benefit as we approach the business end of the season?

CAPTAIN

Gameweek 25 saw season-favourite Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez return as the popular captain choice. He rewarded the four managers who gave him the armband with a 30-point haul. Only Steve picked Manchester United’s Zlatan Ibrahimovic, a differential choice as he aims to make up ground on the other Top Five managers.

Over the season Sanchez has been picked as captain 35% of the time, averaging 14.9pts when chosen. Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero follows in popularity having been handed the armband 27% of the time, averaging 14.5pts as captain, with Tottenham’s Harry Kane chosen 10% of the time and averaging 11.4pts, the third most popular.

How important is it to get your captain choice right?

To answer this question we need look no further than the 42 points gained by Peter in Gameweek 24 when he was the only one of the Top Five to have Everton’s Romelu Lukaku as his captain. Such foresight is reflected in the Total Captain Points table above, which almost entirely explains why he has amassed over 100 points more than fourth-placed rival Steve.

TRANSFERS

As expected Lukaku’s four goals and three bonus points against Bournemouth saw him transferred into Ville’s and Marlen’s teams. Palace’s Christian Benteke finally departed for Ville and City’s Sergio Aguero was shown the door by Marlen.

The other players to gain two transfers apiece this week were West Ham’s Robert Snodgrass and Swansea’s Gylfi Sigurdsson. Both players are on set-piece duties, offer excellent value in their price brackets, and have guaranteed fixtures in Gameweeks 26 and 28.

The only exception to this rule was Chelsea’s Marcos Alonso, who as expected will not have fixture in Gameweek 28 following the Blues’ progress into the FA Cup quarter finals. Marlen’s belated drafting in of the marauding wing-back means the player is now owned by each of the Top Five.

The surprise this week, despite the green arrows across the board, is that only Sigurdsson provided an immediate points return. The transfers characterised more by loss aversion than seeking immediate gains.

The table above continues to show that Ville’s patient approach leaves him someway behind the rest of the career Top Five, who are on average 27pts better off on immediate points gained from transfers. Of course the important thing is to make the right transfer – the table would show a completely different picture had Ville, not Peter, brought in Lukaku ahead of Gameweek 24.

However, both Ville and Marlen, historically the two most successful managers who have also made the fewest number of transfers this season, were slow to react to Lukaku’s potential.  It wasn’t until the Belgian’s 21-point haul against Bournemouth in Gameweek 24 that they transferred him in.  Incidentally both made that move over that same weekend, perhaps demonstrating that psychologically we feel losses much more than we feel gains.

Indeed Marlen’s belated transferring in of Marcos Alonso falls into the same category – could he no longer stand by and watch all those points going astray?

Bench Points

This week I have added a row for Total Benched Points, which shows that Ville has left a hefty 257 points on his bench this season.

One reason for such a high total was his reluctance to start Watford’s Etienne Capoue until Gameweek 7. The midfielder amassed a remarkable 46 points sitting on his bench during that opening period. However, in fairness to Ville the Frenchman’s form was something of an anomaly in those early weeks as he scored four goals from only five shots on target.

Ville wasn’t alone in finding Capoue frustrating to own, Peter too just couldn’t seem to get it right with him. The former Spurs player averaged only 2 points when playing for his team yet 10.5 points as an unused sub.

Tom Heaton, Ashley Williams, and Darren Fletcher are the other players to have achieved double points whilst warming Ville’s bench. The West Brom captain accounts for 53 bench points in total, the most of any individual player across all the Top Five managers.

As the only elite Hall of Famer to eschew 3-5-2 completely, it is tempting to say that playing a 3-4-3 formation 84% of the time has cost Ville midfield points. But would any of us really have started Capoue or Fletcher ahead of Christian Benteke or Harry Kane? I think when bench fodder so often out score the starting eleven we are allowed to say he’s been a little unlucky. We could also argue that he’s very good at picking cheap midfielders. As galling as having bench points are, at least that player is retaining or earning value.

PATIENT vs STUBBORN

– How long do you hold onto a player who is not scoring well in FPL?

Below is a table of stubbornness. Looking at the outfield players who have played more than 10 GWs and have low average points when they’ve played/started.

Players whose names are in bold currently feature in their teams.

When quizzed about Roberto Firmino’s underperformance despite his strong underlying stats and playing as a ‘false 9’, Steve responded that he is a great differential as he seeks to rise up the ranks. “When he plays OOP, I don’t see many better prospects at his price and he has great potential. Spurs aside, he has good fixtures coming up (Arsenal and Man City have weak defences, so he could score) plus Liverpool have the best record against the top sides.”

He was rewarded this week with a clean sheet and an assist against Spurs, and is clearly convinced there’s more to come. With Liverpool guaranteed a Gameweek 28 fixture due to Burnley’s shock FA Cup exit over the weekend, the Brazilian is surely cemented in Steve’s side for the short term.

FORMATION

Over the course of the season 3-4-3 has been favoured 62% of the time by the career Top Five, with 3-5-2 second with 21%. However the landscape appears to be shifting as 4-4-2 is for the second week running a popular choice. As managers seek to take advantage of point-scoring defenders.

PLAYERS

With Alonso and Lukaku joining Sanchez and Ibrahimovic in all five squads, a template of sorts seems to be emerging.

However, with West Brom winger Matt Phillips underperforming and Bournemouth’s Junior Stanislas dropped from the first team, changes look on the cards. With matches in Gameweeks 26 and 28 and a fine pedigree at Hull, new West Ham winger Robert Snodgrass looks among the possible replacements for this lacklustre duo.

TEMPLATE

Goalkeepers – Foster / Heaton

Defenders – Alonso, Coleman, Brunt, McAuley, (Chambers)

Midfielders – Sanchez, Alli, Eriksen, Sigurdsson, (Phillips)

Forwards – Ibrahimovic, Lukaku, (Anichebe)

As well as poor performing bench players Sanchez is another likely for the chop. The Chilean misses Gameweek 26 and looks set to miss Gameweek 28 unless non league Sutton United cause a huge upset tonight in the FA Cup. Sandwiched between these blanks is a potentially tough trip to Anfield. Peter has already revealed he has jettisoned the Arsenal midfielder. Given the fixture list it seems likely many of his fellow elite managers will follow.

Congratulations to all of the Top Five on their green arrows this week. I apologise if it freaks any of them out seeing their moves analysed in this way, but for us lesser mortals I hope it provides insights on how to play the game successfully. Thoughts and comments appreciated.