What The Fixtures and Form Say – Gameweek 29 Captaincy

This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.

Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.

Before I take a look at Gameweek 29’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.

REFINING THE ODDS

For this method, I am going to take the top six most popular captaincy options and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.

I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away PPG but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of two players are the same. The Home and Away PPG will now take into account the last four Home or Away fixtures that player has featured in.

The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.

SUCCESS

What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFS Captain poll. A monthly average will also be worked out to find the cumulative points to see if this method or the FFS Captain polls are proving to be more successful.

On a weekly basis, success will be defined as:

• Explosive = 10+ points
• Success = 7-9 points
• Average = 4-6 points
• Fail = no attacking returns

Let’s take a look at Gameweek 29’s results…..

FORM

Fixture

Results

Taking form and fixtures into consideration, Romelu Lukaku is the most likely to deliver attacking returns according to this method. The Everton forward has notched three goals and an assist in the last four Gameweeks, giving him a Total PPG of 6.5.

More impressively, the Belgian has notched up at least one goal in his last four Goodison Park games leaving him with a PPG of 11 on familiar turf. In fact his scoring form at Goodison Park is so strong that if he scores against Hull this weekend it will be the sixth home game in a row that he’s delivered.

The Tigers should be obliging, having conceded six goals, 11 big chances and 40 goal attempts in the box over their last four, making Marco Silva’s troops the worst defensive team in our fixture table this week.

Josh King just misses out on top spot this week but remains a strong candidate for the armband.

The Cherries midfielder sits way out in first place in the form table with an impressive total PPG of 9. Equally impressive is a strong PPG in his last four home and last four away games, registering 7.25 and 7.5 respectively.

This out of position player, who is fielded in an advanced role, faces a Swansea side that has conceded seven goals, six big chances and 26 goal attempts in the box in their last four, placing him third position in our fixture table.

Clean Sheet Potential Table