What The Fixtures and Form Say – Gameweek 30 Captaincy

This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.

Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.

Before I take a look at Gameweek 30’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.

REFINING THE ODDS

For this method, I am going to take the top six most popular captaincy options and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.

I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away PPG but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of two players are the same. The Home and Away PPG will now take into account the last 4 Home or Away fixtures that player has featured in.

The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.

SUCCESS

What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFS Captain poll.

A review so far can be found via this link, which looks at whether this method or the FFS Captain polls are proving to be more successful. The next review will be at the end of the season.

On a weekly basis, success will be defined as:

• Explosive = 10+ points
• Success = 7-9 points
• Average = 4-6 points
• Fail = no attacking returns

GW29’s top pick Romelu Lukaku delivered an ‘explosive’ return of 16 points, bagging 2 goals and 1 assist against Hull at Goodison Park. The Belgian also scored the most points out of anyone in the top 6 of the captaincy poll.

The clean sheet potential table highlighted 1 clean sheet this week; this was top of the table Everton, who kept Hull at bay with a resounding 4-0 victory.

Let’s take a look at Gameweek 30’s results…..

FORM

Fixtures

Results

Taking form and fixture indicators into account, Romelu Lukaku is the most likely to deliver attacking returns according to this method. The Belgian leads the way in both form and fixture indicators this week. He has five goals and two assists in the last four Gameweeks giving him a total PPG of 10, with Liverpool having conceded six goals, 10 big chances and 33 goal attempts in the box in the same time frame. Despite him taking part in a tricky to call Merseyside derby the form and fixture stats anticipate strong returns from the Toffees’ talisman.

Making a return to the top six in the captaincy poll this week is Jamie Vardy, who has registered three goals and two assists in his last four, offering up a total PPG of 7.75. The Leicester striker faces a Stoke side that has conceded six goals, five big chances and 33 goal attempts in the box in their last four matches, making the England forward an intriguing option for those unwilling to place their faith in Romelu Lukaku this week.

This article offers caution when captaining Diego Costa this week, with the Chelsea marksman colliding with a  resilient Crystal Palace side, which has only conceded one goal, one big chance and 10 goal attempts in the last four game weeks. Whether Palace can continue their fine defensive form and keep the league leaders at bay is certainly something FPL managers should be considering before the deadline.

Clean Sheet Potential Table