This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.
Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.
Before I take a look at Gameweek 32’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.
REFINING THE ODDS
For this method, I am going to take the top six most popular captaincy options and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.
I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away PPG but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of two players are the same. The Home and Away PPG will now take into account the last 4 Home or Away fixtures that player has featured in.
The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.
SUCCESS
What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFS Captain poll.
A review so far can be found via this link, which looks at whether this method or the FFS Captain polls are proving to be more successful. The next review will be at the end of the season.
On a weekly basis, success will be defined as:
- Explosive = 10+ points
- Success = 7-9 points
- Average = 4-6 points
- Fail = no attacking returns
GW31’s top pick Alexis Sanchez delivered a ‘fail’ return of 3 points against West Ham at the Emirates. The Chilean failed to score the most points out of anyone in the top 6 of the captaincy poll. The clean sheet potential table’s top pick Leicester City duly delivered a clean sheet.
Let’s take a look at Gameweek 32’s results…..
FORM
| Rank | Player | Total PPG | Goals | Assists | H-PPG | A-PPG |
| 1. | Alli | 9.25 | 3 | 3 | 7.5 | 5.75 |
| 2. | Lukaku | 8 | 3 | 2 | 13.75 | 3 |
| 3. | Eriksen | 6.75 | 2 | 1 | 6.25 | 5.25 |
| 4. | Aguero | 5.75 | 3 | 0 | 2.75 | 6.75 |
| 5. | Sanchez | 4.5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6.5 |
| 6. | Ibrahimovic | 4.25 | 2 | 1 | 3.25 | 6.5 |
Fixtures
| Rank | Player | Fixture | Goals Conceded | Big Chances Conceded | Goal attempts in the box conceded | Total |
| 1. | Aguero | Hull (H) | 8 | 11 | 35 | 54 |
| 2. | Sanchez | Crystal Palace (A) | 4 | 9 | 37 | 50 |
| 3. | Ibra | Sunderland (A) | 5 | 4 | 36 | 45 |
| 4. | Lukaku | Leicester (H) | 3 | 5 | 31 | 39 |
| 5.5 | Alli | Watford (H) | 5 | 2 | 19 | 26 |
| 5.5 | Eriksen | Watford (H) | 5 | 2 | 19 | 26 |
Results
| Rank | Player | Form | Fixture | Total |
| 1. | Aguero | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| 2. | Lukaku | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 3. | Alli | 1 | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| 4. | Sanchez | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 5. | Eriksen | 3 | 5.5 | 8.5 |
| 6. | Ibrahimovic | 6 | 3 | 9 |
Taking form and fixture indicators into account, Sergio Aguero is the most likely to deliver attacking returns according to this method.
The Argentine has three goals in his last four Gameweeks, giving him a total PPG of 5.75, placing him fourth in the form table. But it’s his home fixture against Hull City that propels him to the top of the results table. The Tigers have conceded eight goals, 11 big chances and 35 goal attempts in the box in the same time frame, making the Manchester City forward an attractive option for the armband this week. (Hull last four fixtures: MID, WHM, eve, SWA)
Romelu Lukaku finishes second in the results table this Gameweek. The Belgian failed to deliver last time out against Manchester United but still boasts a Total PPG of 8, with three goals and two assists in his last four Gameweeks, which places him second in the form table. The Belgian offers an impressive a 13.75 Home –PPG from his last quartet of Goodison Park games.
Back on familiar turf he takes on a Leicester side that has only shipped three goals and five big chances in their last four, but crucially have conceded 31 goal attempts in the box in the same time frame. Have Leicester been riding their luck recently? Given their last four fixtures (SUN, STO, whm, HUL) it may well be they face a trickier tie against a quality home comfort striker like Lukaku.
Dele Alli offers a classic form vs. fixture debate this week.
He finishes top of the form table with a Total PPG of 9.25, with three goals and three assists in his last four, but dips to fifth in terms of fixtures. Watford, his opponents at White Hart Lane, have conceded five goals in the last four Gameweeks but surprisingly have only conceded two big chances and 19 goal attempts in that same time frame.
Is this enough to deter would be Alli captainers?
I’m not so sure. Considering the Hornets last four have been against West Brom, Sunderland and Southampton at home and an away clash with Crystal Palace they have arguably had it easy so far. In addition, Walter Mazzarri has admitted this week that suspensions and injuries leave him effectively with ‘no defence’ at White Hart Lane. Given the visitors predicament and Alli’s form, the England midfielder still looks like a strong bet for the armband.
Clean Sheet Potential Table
| Rank | Team |
| 1. | Tottenham |
| 2. | Manchester City |
| 3. | Middlesbrough |
| 4. | Manchester United |
| 5. | Everton |
7 years, 27 days agoThanks as ever. Really tough choice this week.
Aguero a great option. For me Alli is the best - I don't own Sergio but also think given Watford's terrible situation with injuries and suspensions he could have a field day.