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What The Fixtures and Form say – Gameweek 33 Captaincy

This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.

Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.

Before I take a look at Gameweek 33’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.

REFINING THE ODDS

For this method, I am going to take the top six most popular captaincy options and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.

I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away PPG but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of 2 players are the same. The Home and Away PPG will now take into account the last 4 Home or Away fixtures that the player has featured in.

The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.

SUCCESS

What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFS Captain poll.

A review so far can be found via this link, which looks at whether this method or the FFS Captain polls are proving to be more successful. The next review will be at the end of the season.

On a weekly basis, success will be defined as:

  • Explosive = 10+ points
  • Success = 7-9 points
  • Average = 4-6 points
  • Fail = no attacking returns

GW32’s top pick Sergio Aguero delivered a ‘success’ return of 9 points against Hull. The Argentine failed to score the most points out of the options in the top 6 of the captaincy poll. The clean sheet potential table’s top pick Tottenham duly delivered a clean sheet alongside Middlesbrough and Manchester United.

Let’s take a look at Gameweek 33’s results…..

FORM

RankPlayerTotal PPGGoalsAssistsH-PPGA-PPG
1.Kane8.7551106
2.Son8.54174.25
3.Lukaku8.254211.753
4.Alli8.25328.755.75
5.Aguero7.5404.56.75
6.Sanchez41064.25

Fixtures

RankPlayerFixtureGoals ConcededBig Chances ConcededGoal attempts in the box concededTotal
1.AgueroSouthampton (A)3103750
2.SanchezMiddlesbrough (A)773549
4.KaneBournemouth (H)543443
4.AlliBournemouth (H)543443
4.SonBournemouth (H)543443
6.LukakuBurnley (H)263341

Results

RankPlayerFormFixtureTotal
1.Kane145
2.5Son246
2.5Aguero516
4.5Alli448
4.5Sanchez628
6.Lukaku369

Taking form and fixture indicators into account, Harry Kane is the most likely to deliver attacking returns, according to this method.

Including his games before he was injured, the Tottenham forward has five goals and an assist in his last four appearances. He has a Total PPG of 8.75, which places him top of the form table with a more than respectable Home PPG of 10.

The Englishman finishes joint fourth in the fixture table this week due to there being three players in the top 6 who will face Bournemouth at home. The Cherries have conceded five goals, four big chances and 34 goal attempts in the box in the same timeframe. (Bournemouth last four fixtures: CHE, liv, sou, SWA).

Sergio Aguero finishes joint second in the results table and offers this week’s classic form vs. fixture debate.

He sits in fifth place in the form table with a total PPG of 7.5 with four goals in his last  four Gameweeks. His Home PPG of 4.5 lets his total PPG falter but what’s interesting here is that the Argentine has the highest away PPG of anyone in the top six of the captaincy poll with 6.75.

The Manchester City forward faces a Southampton side that have only conceded three goals but have shipped 10 big chances and 37 goal attempts in the box in the same time frame, which places the Sergio top of the fixture table this week. (Southampton’s last four fixtures have been: wba, CPL, tot, wat).

Romelu Lukaku surprisingly finishes bottom of the results table this week but admittedly the gap between first and last is remarkably small. Discount him as a captaincy option at your peril.

The Belgian has four goals and two assists in his last four Gameweeks offering a total PPG of 8.25. He stays above Dele Alli in third place in the form table by virtue of a better record of 11.75 to 8.75 respectively.

Interestingly, the Everton hitman finishes last in the fixture table despite a home tie against Burnley who are notorious for being poor away from home. They have conceded two goals, six big chances and 33 goal attempts in the box in the same time frame but  have kept clean sheets in their last two away fixtures. Are they improving defensively? I’m not so sure but it offers something for FPL managers to think about going into the weekend, (Burnley last four  fixtures: mid, STO, TOT, sun)

Clean Sheet Potential Table

 

RankTeam
1.Tottenham
2.Everton
3.Crystal Palace
4.Stoke
5.Watford

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25 Comments Post a Comment
  1. djpete
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    14 days, 1 hour ago

    Cheers YMA!

  2. diesel001
      14 days, 53 mins ago

      Clean sheet potential is making things difficult - Hennessey or Grant in goal?

      1. Your Mum's Athletic
          13 days, 19 hours ago

          Henners

        • HVT
            9 days, 23 hours ago

            Both will concede, Start Grant imo.

        • bibi
            14 days, 48 mins ago

            Shocked to see Kane tops the form table...is it really safe to ignore the fact that he didn't play in the last month?

            Just fyi on the official fpl website Kane's form is 0.3 comparing to Lukaku's 8.3

            1. diesel001
                14 days, 33 mins ago

                Kane's returns after coming back from injury earlier in the season:

                8 13 2 13

                He can do it.

            2. MANGE TOUT RODNEY
                14 days, 29 mins ago

                Triple Cap?

              • harvard
                  13 days, 23 hours ago

                  Kane captain most likely

                • Blue&White85
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  13 days, 21 hours ago

                  Lukaku still for me. 15 goals at home and playing against a team that struggle away plus he'll play the full 90 minutes.

                • Blue&White85
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  13 days, 21 hours ago

                  Interesting article though so thanks for posting. Most weeks I do agree with the result.

                • Jonty
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  13 days, 21 hours ago

                  Just noticed in the picture, if Gomes is behind him, how did Kane not score? 🙂

                  1. crilley28
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    13 days, 21 hours ago

                    defender blocked it on the line I believe

                • Adam West
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  13 days, 21 hours ago

                  You better remind me to change the captaincy this week 😉

                  1. Your Mum's Athletic
                      13 days, 19 hours ago

                      Sanchez hattie incoming after you've changed it 😉

                  2. Pipermaru
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    13 days, 20 hours ago

                    One major thing that puts me off from Lukaku is the fact that, yes Burnley is losing away, but it is never a hockey score like with WHU,SWA, HUL, SUN etc.

                    They've lost 1-2 away to Spurs, Liverpool, Man City, Arsenal...every one of this games were predicted as bloodbath and nothing like this happen

                    Just my two cent

                    1. Your Mum's Athletic
                        13 days, 19 hours ago

                        Completely agree, there's a higher ceiling with Kane i reckon

                    2. George Costanza
                        12 days, 22 hours ago

                        I'm just apprehensive on Kane as he burnt me for those two home games earlier in the season when he blanked. Lukaku has been so reliable. On Kane currently but might switch.

                      • The Tinkerman
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        12 days, 22 hours ago

                        Don't see how Kane can be considered top of the form table, he has only made one appearance in a month and didn't score in it. He has no form. From my squad it's Kane or Lukaku, ownership makes Kaku the safer choice, Kane arguably has a higher ceiling but also more risk IMO.

                      • Dušan Citizen
                          12 days, 20 hours ago

                          What about Eriksen?

                        • quamifiak
                            12 days, 18 hours ago

                            How safe is it to captain to Alli or Aquero. Am confuse

                          • quamifiak
                              12 days, 18 hours ago

                              How safe is it to captain Alli or Aquero. Am confuse

                            • CrouchDown
                                12 days, 11 hours ago

                                Who is best MID defender after Gibson?

                              • HVT
                                  9 days, 23 hours ago

                                  Kane for a banker goal and assist!
                                  😉

                                  1. Your Mum's Athletic
                                      9 days, 19 hours ago

                                      Giggity

                                      1. HVT
                                          7 days, 19 hours ago

                                          😆 😆 😆