This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.
Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.
Before I take a look at Gameweek 33’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.
REFINING THE ODDS
For this method, I am going to take the top six most popular captaincy options and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.
I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away PPG but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of 2 players are the same. The Home and Away PPG will now take into account the last 4 Home or Away fixtures that the player has featured in.
The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.
What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFS Captain poll.
A review so far can be found via this link, which looks at whether this method or the FFS Captain polls are proving to be more successful. The next review will be at the end of the season.
On a weekly basis, success will be defined as:
- Explosive = 10+ points
- Success = 7-9 points
- Average = 4-6 points
- Fail = no attacking returns
GW32’s top pick Sergio Aguero delivered a ‘success’ return of 9 points against Hull. The Argentine failed to score the most points out of the options in the top 6 of the captaincy poll. The clean sheet potential table’s top pick Tottenham duly delivered a clean sheet alongside Middlesbrough and Manchester United.
Let’s take a look at Gameweek 33’s results…..
|Rank||Player||Fixture||Goals Conceded||Big Chances Conceded||Goal attempts in the box conceded||Total|
Taking form and fixture indicators into account, Harry Kane is the most likely to deliver attacking returns, according to this method.
Including his games before he was injured, the Tottenham forward has five goals and an assist in his last four appearances. He has a Total PPG of 8.75, which places him top of the form table with a more than respectable Home PPG of 10.
The Englishman finishes joint fourth in the fixture table this week due to there being three players in the top 6 who will face Bournemouth at home. The Cherries have conceded five goals, four big chances and 34 goal attempts in the box in the same timeframe. (Bournemouth last four fixtures: CHE, liv, sou, SWA).
Sergio Aguero finishes joint second in the results table and offers this week’s classic form vs. fixture debate.
He sits in fifth place in the form table with a total PPG of 7.5 with four goals in his last four Gameweeks. His Home PPG of 4.5 lets his total PPG falter but what’s interesting here is that the Argentine has the highest away PPG of anyone in the top six of the captaincy poll with 6.75.
The Manchester City forward faces a Southampton side that have only conceded three goals but have shipped 10 big chances and 37 goal attempts in the box in the same time frame, which places the Sergio top of the fixture table this week. (Southampton’s last four fixtures have been: wba, CPL, tot, wat).
Romelu Lukaku surprisingly finishes bottom of the results table this week but admittedly the gap between first and last is remarkably small. Discount him as a captaincy option at your peril.
The Belgian has four goals and two assists in his last four Gameweeks offering a total PPG of 8.25. He stays above Dele Alli in third place in the form table by virtue of a better record of 11.75 to 8.75 respectively.
Interestingly, the Everton hitman finishes last in the fixture table despite a home tie against Burnley who are notorious for being poor away from home. They have conceded two goals, six big chances and 33 goal attempts in the box in the same time frame but have kept clean sheets in their last two away fixtures. Are they improving defensively? I’m not so sure but it offers something for FPL managers to think about going into the weekend, (Burnley last four fixtures: mid, STO, TOT, sun)
Clean Sheet Potential Table